Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

Vince Cable is just trying to make a name for himself...well a bigger one. He has always been a fool and always will be but for some reason moderates seem to like him..

I think that popularity came from his Lib-Dem period as main spokesman for them. With seemingly no prospect they would get into office, it was very easy for him to spout popular policies.

Getting into coalition with the Tories put paid to that activity, but memories lingered among many.
.

 

[Woosh]

I think that popularity came from his Lib-Dem period as main spokesman for them.

his popularity comes from this:

Dec 2015.
He is the most effective policy maker among the libdems.

 

[Kudoscycles]

Of course I am OK for the UK to pay, we have triggered article 50 and are now trying to negotiate with the EU.

If it was easy to determine our legal EU liabilities the EU would have already issued a bill to the UK, so the figure is unknown at present and subject to negotiation.

It won't be easy as the legal definitions will be challenged by both sides and I have no doubt that some of it will be difficult.

For example Mr Barnier has offered a settlement on our 39 billion euro share capital of the EIB but that currently appears to breech article 4.4 of the EIB Statute:

4.
The share of a member in the subscribed capital may not be transferred,
pledged or attached.

The Statute can only be changed by:

Pursuant to the third paragraph of Article 308 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, the Statute may be amended by the Council acting unanimously in accordance with a special legislative procedure, at the request of the European Investment Bank and after consulting the European Parliament and the Commission, or on a proposal from the Commission and after consulting the European Parliament and the European Investment Bank.

I read that as the UK has the option to agree or not to the change.

I only ask because ardent Brexiters,Rees-Mogg/Bone/Redwood and Boris all say that they won't give them anything,in fact after paying the EU £200 billion over the years they reckon the EU owes us money.
Downing Street is saying that they won't pay that much and May/Davis seem to accept it is an ok amount.
Most Brexiters are still waiting for the £350 million per week for the NHS,they threaten riots if we give them anything.
So that's good we are all in agreement,hehe......!!!!!
The EU still want £55billion and they haven't said whether we will have to continue paying the £11 billion per annum if we want Hammonds 3 years extension. Cannot see we will pay £36billion and they won't accept such a low figure anyway,so further negotiations do seem a waste of time.....as Barnier keeps reminding us 'the clock is ticking',wonder if Boris is still whistling.
The longer this goes on the more idiotic we look....be honest we have no negotiating strength ,the EU knows this and if we want to leave we are going to have to accept what they offer us.....
BREXIT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN,ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME WHEN WE ALL ACCEPT THE OBVIOUS.
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

his popularity comes from this:

I was only speaking for the opinions of intelligent life forms in the electorate.

Trash TV and its moronic audience have no part in my life.
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[Danidl]

I only ask because ardent Brexiters,Rees-Mogg/Bone/Redwood and Boris all say that they won't give them anything,in fact after paying the EU £200 billion over the years they reckon the EU owes us money.
Downing Street is saying that they won't pay that much and May/Davis seem to accept it is an ok amount.
Most Brexiters are still waiting for the £350 million per week for the NHS,they threaten riots if we give them anything.
So that's good we are all in agreement,hehe......!!!!!
The EU still want £55billion and they haven't said whether we will have to continue paying the £11 billion per annum if we want Hammonds 3 years extension. Cannot see we will pay £36billion and they won't accept such a low figure anyway,so further negotiations do seem a waste of time.....as Barnier keeps reminding us 'the clock is ticking',wonder if Boris is still whistling.
The longer this goes on the more idiotic we look....be honest we have no negotiating strength ,the EU knows this and if we want to leave we are going to have to accept what they offer us.....
BREXIT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN,ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME WHEN WE ALL ACCEPT THE OBVIOUS.
KudosDave

.. were it so.. but in the absence of a process the inevitable will occur. How can it be stopped?

 

[oldgroaner]

Telegraph this morning
"
Brexit negotiators trying to 'ram through' £36bn Brexit divorce bill while Eurosceptics are on holiday

Eurosceptics? what happened to calling them Remoaners?

Ohhhh....I get it "U" turn in process
Tricky that! Marketing at the sharp end, eh?

Meanwhile at the Express, a different view prevails
"
EU must be joking! Tory MPs vow to REJECT plans to use taxpayers' money to pay Brexit bill
TORY MPs have warned Theresa May they will not agree to using taxpayers’ money to pay a “divorce bill” for leaving the EU."

Division in the ranks it seems

 

[Kudoscycles]

.. were it so.. but in the absence of a process the inevitable will occur. How can it be stopped?

As I have put on previous postings.....it is the Leavers that will stop Brexit....the Rees-Moggs and Co are so arrogant that they have said they won't pay a penny to leave,they have also told us that the Irish border is only a minor problem and that the balance of trade is such that the Germans will be desperate to do a deal.
Well it's not working out that way,if the Rees-Moggs won't pay any money we won't leave,if the Irish veto the border we won't leave and if Thersa May doesn't change her attitude to the ECJ we won't leave,
These Tories think that the world owes us a living....the world won't wait around whilst they squabble....
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

Well it's not working out that way,if the Rees-Moggs won't pay any money we won't leave,

the amount of money is not large in comparison to the amount of trade we do with the EU in 10, 20, 50 years and/or membership fees.
The EU will do a free trade deal eventually, in time, the issue is between now and then.

 

[Danidl]

As I have put on previous postings.....it is the Leavers that will stop Brexit....the Rees-Moggs and Co are so arrogant that they have said they won't pay a penny to leave,they have also told us that the Irish border is only a minor problem and that the balance of trade is such that the Germans will be desperate to do a deal.
Well it's not working out that way,if the Rees-Moggs won't pay any money we won't leave,if the Irish veto the border we won't leave and if Thersa May doesn't change her attitude to the ECJ we won't leave,
These Tories think that the world owes us a living....the world won't wait around whilst they squabble....
KudosDave

... I'm sorry but that just don't cut it. "If wishes were fishes etc. ". It is precisely because there is a level of disharmony and incoherence that things will muddle on.
The only logical outcomes at present are.
1. Muddle on , remain arrogant and defiant and achieve a hard Brexit. A border is reinserted on the island of Ireland. UK refuses to engage and doesn't pay anything, enters a period of economic isolation, . Maybe even Hunger riots in the UK.

2. Big money in the UK decides that enough is enough, major political realignment, and conciliation with EU, seeks extension to timescale and generates a fudge. The longer the war of words continues, the more difficult getting the EU to agree will become. It is no longer a council of ministers decision, but now involves all the remaining EU states.
3. A new election in the UK and possibly a new referendum with popular support , petitions the EU... This would be more acceptable to the EU parliment.

Of these options regrettably 1 seems the most likely.....

 

[oldgroaner]

... I'm sorry but that just don't cut it. "If wishes were fishes etc. ". It is precisely because there is a level of disharmony and incoherence that things will muddle on.
The only logical outcomes at present are.
1. Muddle on , remain arrogant and defiant and achieve a hard Brexit. A border is reinserted on the island of Ireland. UK refuses to engage and doesn't pay anything, enters a period of economic isolation, . Maybe even Hunger riots in the UK.

2. Big money in the UK decides that enough is enough, major political realignment, and conciliation with EU, seeks extension to timescale and generates a fudge. The longer the war of words continues, the more difficult getting the EU to agree will become. It is no longer a council of ministers decision, but now involves all the remaining EU states.
3. A new election in the UK and possibly a new referendum with popular support , petitions the EU... This would be more acceptable to the EU parliment.

Of these options regrettably 1 seems the most likely.....

It's all going as I expected , with the people in charge that we have, and a Rabid Right Wing press, there is really no chance of Brexit being a success, for after all, even after the day of Brexit, the Government will be no more competent than it is now, will it?

And not only that it is duly bound to "put on a show" to convince the Brexit faithful that they made the right decision., while in the background exploiting the situation for profit and to undermine any opposition.

Prognosis: a period of Political and Social insanity awaits us.

Please return to your seats and fasten your seat belts, move into the crash position, we are about to encounter extreme Turbulence.

Pretty soon the first of the Major Toffs will be seen passing the windows wearing Parachutes, (immediately after the Captain and Crew)
put simply this means that the Government after Brexit will not even the formed from the so called major figures of the Tory party, but the dregs left after the first round of internal strife, as negotiations (to use a very flattering term) fail.

 

[Zlatan]

"Eurosceptics? what happened to calling them Remoaners?"

Errr..Euroseptics ( thought you,d like that OG) are leavers ?? I think...

Flecc
Strictly is cultural highlight of Tele at moment..put naked attraction on for 30 seconds...utter sh!te..I must be old...

 

[Woosh]

2. Big money in the UK decides that enough is enough, major political realignment, and conciliation with EU, seeks extension to timescale and generates a fudge. The longer the war of words continues, the more difficult getting the EU to agree will become. It is no longer a council of ministers decision, but now involves all the remaining EU states.
3. A new election in the UK and possibly a new referendum with popular support , petitions the EU... This would be more acceptable to the EU parliment.

how about Big Money decides that brexit is exactly what suits them best, unrestricted capitalism, low tax, low import duty, generous non-domiciled regime, easy money laundering?
The tories will pay the EU, have a 3 years transitional period and win the next election by default.

 

[Danidl]

...

how about Big Money decides that brexit is exactly what suits them best, unrestricted capitalism, low tax, low import duty, generous non-domiciled regime, easy money laundering?
The tories will pay the EU, have a 3 years transitional period and win the next election by default.

If that is what big money decides then the UK is xxxxxxxx.

 

[Woosh]

...

If that is what big money decides then the UK is xxxxxxxx.

and will take Ireland with it.

 

[Danidl]

and will take Ireland with it.

Yes I have been consistent.. there is no upside for Ireland, North or South from this Brexit thing, just bad and worse options. .. Bad is staying in the EU, worse is leaving it along with the UK.

The only good option would be for the UK to have an official change of heart.

 

[oldgroaner]

They appeared to have somehow changed sides in the view of the paper was the point I was trying to make!

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Kudoscycles]

... I'm sorry but that just don't cut it. "If wishes were fishes etc. ". It is precisely because there is a level of disharmony and incoherence that things will muddle on.
The only logical outcomes at present are.
1. Muddle on , remain arrogant and defiant and achieve a hard Brexit. A border is reinserted on the island of Ireland. UK refuses to engage and doesn't pay anything, enters a period of economic isolation, . Maybe even Hunger riots in the UK.

2. Big money in the UK decides that enough is enough, major political realignment, and conciliation with EU, seeks extension to timescale and generates a fudge. The longer the war of words continues, the more difficult getting the EU to agree will become. It is no longer a council of ministers decision, but now involves all the remaining EU states.
3. A new election in the UK and possibly a new referendum with popular support , petitions the EU... This would be more acceptable to the EU parliment.

Of these options regrettably 1 seems the most likely.....

It cant be 1. Ireland and Sinn Fein and the DUP all dont want a hard border...Ireland have suggested that NI plus Ireland should have a sea border round both NI and Ireland....that would effectively be a united Ireland,the DUP will hate that and May has just bribed them £1.5 billion for their 10 votes.
2. Big money...could be but why destroy the good EU-UK link....
3. Why do you have to have a GE or even a leadership election to have a second referendum...May could put it to parliament....the electorate would I think vote Remain,if for no other reason than everyone is pigsick of hearing about Brexit and it would stop all the media hype.
If May didnt get a vote for a second referendum through parliament I am sure she would call another GE,which the Tories wouldnt risk because it may let Corbyn into No 10. I think she would whip the vote and there are enough Labour MP's to easily carry it.
If she won the referendum,that would give her a mandate to unwind Brexit and carry her through to the next full term election,Corbyn would be left impotent.
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

They appeared to have somehow changed sides in the view of the paper was the point I was trying to make!

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

I don't think you are correct.
The tories will do whatever necessary to hold on to power, if soft brexit delivers a majority in parliament then they will have soft brexit and fiddle with it later.
JC is consistent but I don't think he will ever win over the majority in my lifetime and he is also a brexiter.

 

[Danidl]

the amount of money is not large in comparison to the amount of trade we do with the EU in 10, 20, 50 years and/or membership fees.
The EU will do a free trade deal eventually, in time, the issue is between now and then.

... Eventually can be a long time... Google economic war Ireland and UK in the 1922 to 1936 period. The parallels between then and now are striking. A small country taking on an economic giant at least 15 times larger, and failing miserably. Actually 15 times larger is an understatement as there was an entity called the British empire and the commonwealth .

 

[Woosh]

there is no reason for a trade war.
As soon as we agree on the bill, a deal is going to happen, and will develop over time like with Switzerland. Any delay, we'll collect more on duty than the EU.
Don't forget, at present, we remit something like 80% of the duty to the EU.