Brexit, for once some facts.

[BrendanJ]

Brendan please explain just why there is any reason for foreign manufacturers who came here for EU access should stay in a country that is going downhill and no longer has that free access?
It is so obvious and you won't never mind can't see it.
Without that access we are no better off than any other offshore little island.
Generous bribes in the way of business advantages added to the attraction of gateway access brought them here.
These are gone, they would be simply lousy business people if the didn't move to be inside the EU

I don't want to seem condescending but this is quite a complex issue made up of many parts, it is not simplistically down to tariffs which is the worst that can happen, it has many more constituent parts and even varies by country circumstance above all strategic considerations, you cannot pick up factories every year because something changes, and frankly multi national companies are much more adept at this game than our politicians
Our politicians don't understand it, how could they, they have never had real jobs, our press don't understand it, how could they, they only report what they are told and what sells newspapers
And political groups such as the left wing how can they understand it, they have never been exposed to that level of operation, no criticism intended, but you know what you know, and after that what you hear and are then vulnerable to the distortions, misquotes, and yes lies
So it the nicest possible sense, because I have enjoyed our jousting intellectually and believe you understand a lot of it when you keep an open mind. " don't teach your granny how to suck eggs" hope we have not fallen out again

 

[oldgroaner]

I don't want to seem condescending but this is quite a complex issue made up of many parts, it is not simplistically down to tariffs which is the worst that can happen, it has many more constituent parts and even varies by country circumstance above all strategic considerations, you cannot pick up factories every year because something changes, and frankly multi national companies are much more adept at this game than our politicians
Our politicians don't understand it, how could they, they have never had real jobs, our press don't understand it, how could they, they only report what they are told and what sells newspapers
And political groups such as the left wing how can they understand it, they have never been exposed to that level of operation, no criticism intended, but you know what you know, and after that what you hear and are then vulnerable to the distortions, misquotes, and yes lies
So it the nicest possible sense, because I have enjoyed our jousting intellectually and believe you understand a lot of it when you keep an open mind. " don't teach your granny how to suck eggs" hope we have not fallen out again

Not at all, and did you like the second version of the Hitler film i posted?

 

[oldgroaner]

Do I get a smilie for that one Brendan?

As you said both versions are "Wicked" indeed!

 

[BrendanJ]

But it's vehicle manufacturing I'm speaking of, and that is still being shifted into eastern Europe, Germany and even Spain at times, often in ways that are not even apparent.

Nissan came here for two reasons, first because we were in the EU, second because of a huge government subsidy to do so. The subsidies are no longer available of course, so our EU membership could be critical in some circumstances.
.

Again Flecc sorry to say those are not the only reasons, just the ones the press focus on,
But I accept most of the car manufactures position themselves in several locations in Europe, not to mention the world and will flex and adjust to changing dynamics but it is more complex and thought through than you think.
One issue even as we think of Brexit as so dramatic is staple diet for these guys, otherwise how could they trade internationally over so many years

 

[oldgroaner]

I don't want to seem condescending but this is quite a complex issue made up of many parts, it is not simplistically down to tariffs which is the worst that can happen, it has many more constituent parts and even varies by country circumstance above all strategic considerations, you cannot pick up factories every year because something changes, and frankly multi national companies are much more adept at this game than our politicians
Our politicians don't understand it, how could they, they have never had real jobs, our press don't understand it, how could they, they only report what they are told and what sells newspapers
And political groups such as the left wing how can they understand it, they have never been exposed to that level of operation, no criticism intended, but you know what you know, and after that what you hear and are then vulnerable to the distortions, misquotes, and yes lies
So it the nicest possible sense, because I have enjoyed our jousting intellectually and believe you understand a lot of it when you keep an open mind. " don't teach your granny how to suck eggs" hope we have not fallen out again

I worked for an American multinational that was established in this country in 1909, and in 2000 opened a "Joint Venture" Factory in China ostensibly to service the far East, quite soon goods from there appeared in our warehouse, were sold at UK levels of profit and before long the factory which spanned 52 acres and employed 1100 people closed down, alleging that energy costs had made it unprofitable, so you see. I am speaking from personal experience and not in any way influenced by anything other than first hand knowledge of the logical operations of a Multinational company I served for 45 years.
I forgot to add that the Company sold munitions to both sides in World Wars one and two! and had no qualms whatever where a profit could be made

 

[BrendanJ]

I worked for an American multinational that was established in this country in 1909, and in 2000 opened a "Joint Venture" Factory in China ostensibly to service the far East, quite soon goods from there appeared in our warehouse, were sold at UK levels of profit and before long the factory which spanned 52 acres and employed 1100 people closed down, alleging that energy costs had made it unprofitable, so you see. I am speaking from personal experience and not in any way influenced by anything other than first hand knowledge of the logical operations of a Multinational company I served for 45 years.
I forgot to add that the Company sold munitions to both sides in World Wars one and two! and had no qualms whatever where a profit could be made

Ditto at fairly senior level. It happens, it's what they glibly refer to as globalisation, but from my experience it does not have to result in win /lose but it does involve change and flexibility
Synonymous with all sorts of crap I fear, but it really is the reality we are dealing with
Have you ever visited China by the way, the people there have been very oppressed in the past, they have had nothing, they are nice people, they work VERY hard and they want the same things that we have, for themselves and there children and frankly any true socialist would agree they should have it, but if you leave it to the establishment, the financiers, the politicians, the burecrats they will take it from US
Now I am really in dangerous territory and you will be pleased to know I have no answers

 

[oldgroaner]

Ditto at fairly senior level. It happens, it's what they glibly refer to as globalisation, but from my experience it does not have to result in win /lose but it does involve change and flexibility
Synonymous with all sorts of crap I fear, but it really is the reality we are dealing with
Have you ever visited China by the way, the people there have been very oppressed in the past, they have had nothing, they are nice people, they work VERY hard and they want the same things that we have, for themselves and there children and frankly any true socialist would agree they should have it, but if you leave it to the establishment, the financiers, the politicians, the burecrats they will take it from US
Now I am really in dangerous territory and you will be pleased to know I have no answers

China? no, mainland Europe, yes to our factories there, I was as i used to humorously call myself the MD's Fan Cleaner.
I knew the was a problem when he would ring me and start the conversation with "Here's something that might interest you."
The answer expected and received was "Consider it done."
And neither have I any answers, just lots of questions of course!

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Various people have referred to Europe as ''our friends''. Seem more like enemies to me from some assumptions on here

They are our friends, but if we leave the EU, we'll be in direct competition business wise...

 

[trex]

they have always been our competitors. until now, it's level playing field. In two and a half years, they'll make the new rules, we'll have to accept to do business with them.

 

[BrendanJ]

they have always been our competitors. until now, it's level playing field. In two and a half years, they'll make the new rules, we'll have to accept to do business with them.

I cannot believe the defeatist negative and frankly pathetic views being expressed now
You lost a vote, not a war
God help your businesses if this is how you face challenges
GET OVER IT, what are you guys on

Bloody hell Cameron and Osborne have got some responsibility here, they really scared some of you shitless, get a spine

 

[Kudoscycles]

Ditto at fairly senior level. It happens, it's what they glibly refer to as globalisation, but from my experience it does not have to result in win /lose but it does involve change and flexibility
Synonymous with all sorts of crap I fear, but it really is the reality we are dealing with
Have you ever visited China by the way, the people there have been very oppressed in the past, they have had nothing, they are nice people, they work VERY hard and they want the same things that we have, for themselves and there children and frankly any true socialist would agree they should have it, but if you leave it to the establishment, the financiers, the politicians, the burecrats they will take it from US
Now I am really in dangerous territory and you will be pleased to know I have no answers

I have over 130 suppliers in China,when I first visited the country I was nervous about culture differences,can I trust these people,what do they think of me. Now,15 years later I have many friends there,I can speak openly with them,they have exactly the same concerns as us,their families,homes,jobs,losses to Vietnam,education.
They are worried about Brexit,what effect it would have on their jobs,they don't have the social security safeguards we have in the UK.
Mum and Dad often leave their children to be bought up by relatives,600 miles away in the west,Mum and Dad live in dormitories aside from the factories,with little privacy and send 50% of their income back to the villages to feed their child.
Life is slowly getting better for them but their standards are way below that of Europe,they are very hard working and their only priority is that their child should have better prospects than they had.
I really like them.
KudosDave

 

[BrendanJ]

I have over 130 suppliers in China,when I first visited the country I was nervous about culture differences,can I trust these people,what do they think of me. Now,15 years later I have many friends there,I can speak openly with them,they have exactly the same concerns as us,their families,homes,jobs,losses to Vietnam,education.
They are worried about Brexit,what effect it would have on their jobs,they don't have the social security safeguards we have in the UK.
Mum and Dad often leave their children to be bought up by relatives,600 miles away in the west,Mum and Dad live in dormitories aside from the factories,with little privacy and send 50% of their income back to the villages to feed their child.
Life is slowly getting better for them but their standards are way below that of Europe,they are very hard working and their only priority is that their child should have better prospects than they had.
I really like them.
KudosDave

Exactly my experience too and as I said to OG I'm not sure what the answer is, but honestly I'm not sure that the current vision of an EU superstate is the answer, particularly as it seems so corrupt and self serving to the political elites and doesn't much care about its own citizens
The abslutely shocking fact to me always comes back to Spain, Italy , Greece under 25s 50% unemployment and no plan, let them come to Germany or uk and work as slaves, just like the chinese

 

[Kudoscycles]

Every anti-dumping duty I pay is to protect German industry....22% on ally wheels to protect BBS wheels,48% on bicycles to protect Derby Cycles.
I am sure in other industries others can point out similar protectionism.
I am a remainer but maybe we can use the threat of leaving,which could cause the break up of the EU,to get some elected democracy within the EU,Junkers is a Hitler,Farage was right.
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

I cannot believe the defeatist negative and frankly pathetic views being expressed now
You lost a vote, not a war
God help your businesses if this is how you face challenges
GET OVER IT, what are you guys on

Bloody hell Cameron and Osborne have got some responsibility here, they really scared some of you shitless, get a spine

If I may be permitted to observe something, Neither Osborne or Cameron scare me one bit, but my friend not intentionally of course, by voting for Brexit you did.
However your recommendation that I get a new spine is not a bad idea at all as this one is giving me as they say in Yorkshire "The Gip"
Even a reconditioned one would be a blessing.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

If I may be permitted to observe something, Neither Osborne or Cameron scare me one bit, but my friend not intentionally of course, by voting for Brexit you did.
However your recommendation that I get a new spine is not a bad idea at all as this one is giving me as they say in Yorkshire "The Gip"
Even a reconditioned one would be a blessing.

Your reasoning is deteriorating further OG, didn't think it could but you,ve managed it.
So far, every single negative affect on any finances has been done by
A) poor confidence

B) Speculation. If enough folk ( or big enough sum) speculate the market drops or falls accordingly.( ie sell enoughshares, they drop in value, gold rises)

A has been caused by Osbourne frightening people into voting to remain.

B) was caused by German bankers.

Not a single rule, tarif,license or anything has yet been changed and wont be for at least two years, if at all.

Germany has far more to lose than uk on any trade tariff. Just read the fecking papers..any of them. ( Germany could lose 750,000 jobs if it loses uk market)

Totally agree with Brendan. Government wanted frightened voters, frightened voters do not vote for change. That fear is then fostered in papers and on here., then it translates into lack off confidence in business and back to A)above..
Who takes blame from the frightened voters? Brexit...when it hasn't even happened !

 

[oldgroaner]

Your reasoning is deteriorating further OG, didn't think it could but you,ve managed it.
So far, every single negative affect on any finances has been done by
A) poor confidence

B) Speculation. If enough folk ( or big enough sum) speculate the market drops or falls accordingly.( ie sell enoughshares, they drop in value, gold rises)

A has been caused by Osbourne frightening people into voting to remain.

B) was caused by German bankers.

Not a single rule, tarif,license or anything has yet been changed and wont be for at least two years, if at all.

Germany has far more to lose than uk on any trade tariff. Just read the fecking papers..any of them. ( Germany could lose 750,000 jobs if it loses uk market)

Totally agree with Brendan. Government wanted frightened voters, frightened voters do not vote for change. That fear is then fostered in papers and on here., then it translates into lack off confidence in business and back to A)above..
Who takes blame from the frightened voters? Brexit...when it hasn't even happened !

Thanks for the vote of confidence in my reasoning, but so far not a single reason other than wishful thinking has been offered to justify an act of quite breathtakingly misguided foolishness as to throw ourselves collectively out on the street from the biggest, and growing market on the planet because of feelings of inadequacy at the fact that we have to be patient and work towards change by diplomacy there.
And we are supposed to rejoice that you have forced this on us and so far (when it is too early to make such a statement) prefer to kid yourself all will be well?
I wish I could bottle your optimism and sell it to broken down street walkers.
Still cheer up you are going to get the government you deserve.
And that is the problem.
Undoubtedly the country is capable of surviving money wise on its own, but only at great social cost for the public, who will experience the loss of the socially benign influence of the EU, and be exposed to both the incompetence of our own governments, and a further downgrading of their rights and protection till they are little more than serfs.
The public have been conned into blaming the EU for their troubles and many believed that they were voting for relief from them.
When they realise nothing has changed and things in that respect have worsened there will be big trouble.
My judgement is poor? Better that than antisocial. [emoji1]

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[oldgroaner]

A bit more scaremongering from the Guardian to start the day
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/30/shocked-uk-consumers-ditch-spending-brexit-vote

And a great line in the readers comments on the UKIP
"All goes to show that the UK Inconsequential Peasantry (UKIP) are merely pawns, manipulated in this sham Democratic Referendum."
also
"In future all puppies should be called Boris. Fun, amusing, makes you smile and craps indiscriminately leaving someone else to clear up the mess"
Classic!

 

[BrendanJ]

I see from today's reports that the euro trade commissioner has decided that the "no noze" look is quite fashionable this year
So first we must leave, ie in 2 years and only negotiate the leave part, then we can start negotiation on trade deal, so we have to start with WTO rules

Obviously a junker master plan., to be expected really. Shows just what an appalling institution they really are that they would use such threats and even impose such penalties on themselves and their people
This is a clear demonstration of their complete inability to accept progressive change and their morally corrupt nature

My say is "bring it on" I am more convinced than ever
Thankfully such posturing rarely makes it through to the field of play, but tells you all you need to know about the commission and their desperation
If I understand well the British character this kind of approach can only unify and give us steely resolve

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

OG

Think you should do some research on Junkhers...then have a rethink on your superstate. He really is appalling .Through his shaninigans the EU have allowed Luxembourg to become richest nation ( on gdp per person) with arguably illegal tax laws ( definitely immoral) to the cost of rest of countries. Really is terrible. And in mean time Spain, Greece ,Portugal in almost absolute poverty. And you call us anti social. You have not got a clue OG. The EU is worse than corrupt.
Junkhers make Farage look like Mandela.

 

[oldgroaner]

I see from today's reports that the euro trade commissioner has decided that the "no noze" look is quite fashionable this year
So first we must leave, ie in 2 years and only negotiate the leave part, then we can start negotiation on trade deal, so we have to start with WTO rules

Obviously a junker master plan., to be expected really. Shows just what an appalling institution they really are that they would use such threats and even impose such penalties on themselves and their people
This is a clear demonstration of their complete inability to accept progressive change and their morally corrupt nature

My say is "bring it on" I am more convinced than ever
Thankfully such posturing rarely makes it through to the field of play, but tells you all you need to know about the commission and their desperation

Lets look at that more closely.
They are quoting a procedure we agreed to which is not morally corrupt, to do anything else would be.
They are refusing to bow to us blackmailing them by a "Show of force"
They hold all the cards and you say "Bring it on"
This in no way shows desperation on their part, the appropriate word is determination, and their patience is running out, as are our options.
This is a clear demonstration of your complete inability to face the facts, nothing more.