used cars are a scarce, valuable commodity in third world countries
Not just possible, it is the answer that all cars are scarce here as well, there just aren't enough to go round.
Production has slumped for several years now for the following reasons:
First the VW emissions fiddling scandal caused a big crackdown on manufacturers. Instead of a set standard that is assumed for all production, every sixth car has to be pulled off the line and tested to the new WLTP and RDE standards, lengthy procedures. Makers complain that this has substantially reduced production.
Secondly the collapse of diesel demand and sales has resulted in production switching away from them.
Third, Ford closing the Bridgend engine plant left Jaguar Landrover without some key engines.
Fourth, the Covic pandemic caused closures and later many worker shortages.
Fifth, "chip" shortages and very long production delays for them have severely cut production of new cars.
Sixth, the enforced and belated change to electric car and battery design and production has resulted in much slower output rates for them than for ic cars, so they have had buyer waiting lists of a year or more.
The end result is obvious. Less than 10 years ago we made 2 million cars a year in Britain. In 2021 we made just 0.859 million, down 57% from those days.
Nor is this isolated, our production falls due to the foregoing reasons have been over several years:
2016 - 1.7 million
2017 - 1.6 million
2018 - 1.5 million
2019 - 1.3 million
2020 - 0.921 million
2021 - 0.859 million
But over all those years we've continued to wear out or crash cars, even deliberately scrapping them for emission reasons.
And of course much of the above applies everywhere.
For example, Hungary used to also produce for other countries 2 million cars a year, a staggering number for such a small country. But they have an even more severe production decline:
2019 - 0.489 million
2020 - 0.432 million
2021 - 0.415 million
All below quarter of what they once made. The French have even mothballed factories and GM left Europe altogether.
In short, for years there haven't been enough cars made to replace what we have as they fall out of service after an average 22 years of life. In Britain alone we need to replace almost 1.5 million every year.
That, and the switch to far more expensive e-cars that many can't afford, is why I've long maintained there will be far fewer cars on the roads in the foreseeable future.
They just won't exist in enough numbers.
.