Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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used cars are a scarce, valuable commodity in third world countries
Not just possible, it is the answer that all cars are scarce here as well, there just aren't enough to go round.

Production has slumped for several years now for the following reasons:

First the VW emissions fiddling scandal caused a big crackdown on manufacturers. Instead of a set standard that is assumed for all production, every sixth car has to be pulled off the line and tested to the new WLTP and RDE standards, lengthy procedures. Makers complain that this has substantially reduced production.

Secondly the collapse of diesel demand and sales has resulted in production switching away from them.

Third, Ford closing the Bridgend engine plant left Jaguar Landrover without some key engines.

Fourth, the Covic pandemic caused closures and later many worker shortages.

Fifth, "chip" shortages and very long production delays for them have severely cut production of new cars.

Sixth, the enforced and belated change to electric car and battery design and production has resulted in much slower output rates for them than for ic cars, so they have had buyer waiting lists of a year or more.

The end result is obvious. Less than 10 years ago we made 2 million cars a year in Britain. In 2021 we made just 0.859 million, down 57% from those days.

Nor is this isolated, our production falls due to the foregoing reasons have been over several years:

2016 - 1.7 million
2017 - 1.6 million
2018 - 1.5 million
2019 - 1.3 million
2020 - 0.921 million
2021 - 0.859 million

But over all those years we've continued to wear out or crash cars, even deliberately scrapping them for emission reasons.

And of course much of the above applies everywhere.

For example, Hungary used to also produce for other countries 2 million cars a year, a staggering number for such a small country. But they have an even more severe production decline:

2019 - 0.489 million
2020 - 0.432 million
2021 - 0.415 million

All below quarter of what they once made. The French have even mothballed factories and GM left Europe altogether.

In short, for years there haven't been enough cars made to replace what we have as they fall out of service after an average 22 years of life. In Britain alone we need to replace almost 1.5 million every year.

That, and the switch to far more expensive e-cars that many can't afford, is why I've long maintained there will be far fewer cars on the roads in the foreseeable future.

They just won't exist in enough numbers.
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jonathan.agnew

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Not just possible, it is the answer that all cars are scarce here as well, there just aren't enough to go round.

Production has slumped for several years now for the following reasons:

First the VW emissions fiddling scandal caused a big crackdown on manufacturers. Instead of a set standard that is assumed for all production, every sixth car has to be pulled off the line and tested to the new WLTP and RDE standards, lengthy procedures. Makers complain that this has substantially reduced production.

Secondly the collapse of diesel demand and sales has resulted in production switching away from them.

Third, Ford closing the Bridgend engine plant left Jaguar Landrover without some key engines.

Fourth, the Covic pandemic caused closures and later many worker shortages.

Fifth, "chip" shortages and very long production delays for them have severely cut production of new cars.

Sixth, the enforced and belated change to electric car and battery design and production has resulted in much slower output rates for them than for ic cars, so they have had buyer waiting lists of a year or more.

The end result is obvious. Less than 10 years ago we made 2 million cars a year in Britain. In 2021 we made just 0.859 million, down 57% from those days.

Nor is this isolated, our production falls due to the foregoing reasons have been over several years:

2016 - 1.7 million
2017 - 1.6 million
2018 - 1.5 million
2019 - 1.3 million
2020 - 0.921 million
2021 - 0.859 million

But over all those years we've continued to wear out or crash cars, even deliberately scrapping them for emission reasons.

And of course much of the above applies everywhere.

For example, Hungary used to also produce for other countries 2 million cars a year, a staggering number for such a small country. But they have an even more severe production decline:

2019 - 0.489 million
2020 - 0.432 million
2021 - 0.415 million

All below quarter of what they once made. The French have even mothballed factories and GM left Europe altogether.

In short, for years there haven't been enough cars made to replace what we have as they fall out of service after an average 22 years of life. In Britain alone we need to replace almost 1.5 million every year.

That, and the switch to far more expensive e-cars that many can't afford, is why I've long maintained there will be far fewer cars on the roads in the foreseeable future.

They just won't exist in enough numbers.
.
I agree, but that leaves out two things: the way wages, generally, are falling behind inflation in the UK specifically, with all the self inflicted wounds of the past twelve years. Before these there were a remarkable number of people who would/could hire purchase evs. And the fact that the UK became such a dystopia in terms of public services, infrastructure over the same period. I can imagine (and for now do) living car free in calabria (or many other places on the continent), but will remortgage a property to avoid getting back on the cold, dirty, noisy unhygienic public transport in uk.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,268
30,652
all the self inflicted wounds of the past twelve years. Before these there were a remarkable number of people who would/could hire purchase evs.
Not really, sales have been mininal. Even now the "booming" EV sales are a tiny fraction of the former near two million cars we once bought each year. After 12 years of sales we still only have 0.6 million battery e-cars. Mainstream e-cars from £30k to £50k will never match the sales of mainstream IC cars from £8k to £22k, in any country's equivalance. And as I've already posted, e-cars will not be coming down in price anytime soon.

And the fact that the UK became such a dystopia in terms of public services, infrastructure over the same period. I can imagine (and for now do) living car free in calabria (or many other places on the continent), but will remortgage a property to avoid getting back on the cold, dirty, noisy unhygienic public transport in uk.
The reductions in cars on the road will of course take time as they gradually wear out, but by then the changes will appear. More shared cars, club cars etc. More cheaper cab use, UBER style for example. More delivery to us and less of us driving to buy, already happening but room for it to more than quadruple. And where greater demand appears, public transport will improve so more will give up having a car. It has already happened in London so could anywhere else. And the young here and in the USA are increasingly not bothering with car ownership: LINK
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soundwave

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we dont need walls we dont need to comply but we will fine the living $hit out of you if your not allowed past that point.

50193

:cool:
 

jonathan.agnew

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esuark

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kent

jonathan.agnew

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I`ll get me coat.....................
You shouldn't. The older I get the more I celebrate failure. The thing I feel most (genuinely) in awe off is that I used to think grayling would be a bad prime minister, would destroy the conservative party. What a fool I've been. Compared to Truss boris (or sunak or starmer for that matter) the man is ******* intellectual collosus, a national treasure.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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The thing I feel most (genuinely) in awe off is that I used to think grayling would be a bad prime minister, would destroy the conservative party. What a fool I've been. Compared to Truss boris (or sunak or starmer for that matter) the man is ******* intellectual collosus, a national treasure.
Even though Ramsgate Harbour wasn't deep enough for his ficticious ferries?
.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
53,268
30,652
I`ll get me coat.....................
Gavin Barwell is a slimy creep who would do or believe anything to get advancement. And he was only made a Lord following PM Theresa May making him her advisor after him perhaps being the largest electoral failure the tories have ever suffered, losing a close marginal seat by over 10,000 votes.

The best thing to do with a candidate like that is put him where he cannot try again, the House of Lords.
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guerney

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where is the being sick emoji when you need it.
I couldn't bear to look at it, let alone copy the link... did it with eyes closed. The sick emoji is suddenly very missed. (aarrgh I caught sight of it again, while scrolling up)
 

Woosh

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Amber Rudd:

“One of the reasons I’m not in politics, and a lot of my former colleagues aren’t in politics anymore, is because we can’t get up and say Brexit is a success. "

"You have to be able to say Brexit is a success to be a spokesperson for the Conservative Party.”

Same applies to Starmer's Labour.
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Amber Rudd:

“One of the reasons I’m not in politics, and a lot of my former colleagues aren’t in politics anymore, is because we can’t get up and say Brexit is a success. "

"You have to be able to say Brexit is a success to be a spokesperson for the Conservative Party.”

Same applies to Starmer's Labour.
Starmer in politics?Ever? Are you sure?
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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30,652
Starmer in politics?Ever? Are you sure?
In a January 2020 interview, Starmer described himself as a socialist. Link

In an interview with Francis Elliott in December 2021, Starmer refused to characterise himself as a socialist as he sought to move Labour closer to the political centre.

So he is whatever he says he is at any one time, the hallmark of a politician. A bit like Humpty Dumpty in "Alice in Wonderland" when he said:

“When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.”
.
 
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jonathan.agnew

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In a January 2020 interview, Starmer described himself as a socialist. Link

In an interview with Francis Elliott in December 2021, Starmer refused to characterise himself as a socialist as he sought to move Labour closer to the political centre.

So he is whatever he says he is at any one time, the hallmark of a politician. A bit like Humpty Dumpty in "Alice in Wonderland" when he said:

“When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.”
.
Yes although as the Romans used to say (ironically on the walls of pompei), or corbyn (or more recently sunak) may qui ignum futuit, ardent mentula (he who sodomises a fire burns his penis)
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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In a January 2020 interview, Starmer described himself as a socialist. Link

In an interview with Francis Elliott in December 2021, Starmer refused to characterise himself as a socialist as he sought to move Labour closer to the political centre.

So he is whatever he says he is at any one time, the hallmark of a politician. A bit like Humpty Dumpty in "Alice in Wonderland" when he said:

“When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.”
.
Humpty Dumpty a politician? Along lines of Starmer I guess so.
 
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