Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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And why Polly finds it amusing I have no idea.
Guilty I'm afraid.

Ever since I took the mickey out of him long ago he's been pursuing me everywhere I post and spraying these smileys about. The alert at the top of the page often shows he's given me a dozen or more at a time.

I'm not bothered, every village has its idiot.
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oyster

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I've told you in the finest illustrated detail what Russia's aims are for this invasion and those only involve Ukraine, no other country. Now just watch it happen as I've said it will, assuming Putin succeeds.
That's why Moldova has urgently applied for EU membership.

If I were there, I would be very concerned and not in the least reassured that you have said Putin has no other intent.

(Technically, he might make it a separate invasion - but all part of the same push.)
 
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flecc

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But out of interest please explain what you mean by "an independent state"... Is that one where Russians can phone up and demand vast swathes of your territory.
No I am not wrong.

The Ukraine was an oblast (county/region) of Russia for many centuries. When Lenin succeeded with the Russian revolution of 2017 he made the Ukraine a separate country in the USSR, as that says, a republic.

So when the USSR disbanded it left Ukraine as a completely independent country, just like all the others in the old Warsaw pact.

Just like most of them, the Ukraine could have joined both the EU and NATO then while Russia was in a state of broken down chaos for several years, but they didn't want to. That was because they still enjoyed the privileged status they'd had for so long and they were still Russian at heart anyway. Just as someone from Lancashire is first English and second Lancastrian, so for many centuries those living in the Ukraine were first Russian, second Ukrainian.
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flecc

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That's why Moldova has urgently applied for EU membership.

If I were there, I would be very concerned and not in the least reassured that you have said Putin has no other intent.

(Technically, he might make it a separate invasion - but all part of the same push.)
Doubtful, there's no point. With Ukraine taken Moldova is sealed off from the sea but for a very long inlet through Ukraine. It's so small and weak I doubt NATO would ever consider it for membership.

If I had a say in the EU I'd be nervous about granting EU membership at present. What a handy border that would make for Russia to get smuggled sanctioned EU goods.
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oldgroaner

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Goodness OG, wish I could draw like that. Its marvelous matey. And timely.
I shall show that post to my younger daughter, when she and her partner visited last Saturday , and he looked at the many paintings I had hung on the wall (cheaper than wallpaper) he noticed I never sign them, and before I could answer "because I never get round to finishing them" she chipped in "Very wise too, that way he avoids being held responsible"
Thanks for the compliment, round here they are thin on the ground! :cool:
 

oyster

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Some time ago, weeks or months, there was a TV program about a railway used almost exclusively for transporting phosphate from Belarus.

Today, for the first time, I saw a comment about this:

However, Russia and its ally, Belarus, are key producers of potash, which is used in the production of fertilizer. Together, they account for 42% of global exports of potash.
 
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oyster

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Some time ago, weeks or months, there was a TV program about a railway used almost exclusively for transporting phosphate from Belarus.

Today, for the first time, I saw a comment about this:

However, Russia and its ally, Belarus, are key producers of potash, which is used in the production of fertilizer. Together, they account for 42% of global exports of potash.
I see that Lithuania had been making difficult decisions weeks ago:

Lithuanian railways halts transport of Belarus potash
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Some time ago, weeks or months, there was a TV program about a railway used almost exclusively for transporting phosphate from Belarus.

Today, for the first time, I saw a comment about this:

However, Russia and its ally, Belarus, are key producers of potash, which is used in the production of fertilizer. Together, they account for 42% of global exports of potash.
There's no doubt that the West will suffer from the sanctions, very likely much more than Russia since Russia is so self sufficient, able to feed itself two or three times over and being so energy and raw material rich.

Sanctions are an unavoidable own goal. Historically they've never worked anywhere, Rhodesia, South Africa, Cuba, Libya, Iran, Iraq, so these against Russia may prove to be useless.
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oyster

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There's no doubt that the West will suffer from the sanctions, very likely much more than Russia since Russia is so self sufficient, able to feed itself two or three times over and being so energy and raw material rich.

Sanctions are an unavoidable own goal. Historically they've never worked anywhere, Rhodesia, South Africa, Cuba, Libya, Iran, Iraq, so these against Russia may prove to be useless.
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Other than in literal siege situations, they pretty much always leak very badly.

It looks like the current sanctions are, possibly, the most complete and well-defined we have ever seen.

No - I am not saying they will work. But they stand a better chance than many previous attempts.
 
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guerney

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Actually available light from a window!
Here is my actual passport picture.
View attachment 45972

Now you can see why I only use half! :cool:
That's fantastic! I wish I could do that... it's got me wanting to have a go again. How long did that take? Could you don a beret and sketch such potraits on a pier, making a pretty penny or several from tourists? I would, if I could draw like that. Great artists are rarely recognised in their own lifetime... definitely leave the house to your older daughter, encourage artistic genes to flourish ;)
 
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flecc

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It looks like the current sanctions are, possibly, the most complete and well-defined we have ever seen.

No - I am not saying they will work. But they stand a better chance than many previous attempts.
I agree, and as I was thinking yesterday, the greatest danger is that they work so well that they drive Russia into total isolation, cutting dead all grain, oil, gas and mineral exports to the rest of the world. That would severely hurt so many countries in the West.

Russia is so self supporting they can cut themselves off totally without any unsurmountable difficulty for themselves. Then what influence or control would we have? None.
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soundwave

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:p
 

jonathan.agnew

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I agree, and as I was thinking yesterday, the greatest danger is that they work so well that they drive Russia into total isolation, cutting dead all grain, oil, gas and mineral exports to the rest of the world. That would severely hurt so many countries in the West.

Russia is so self supporting they can cut themselves off totally without any unsurmountable difficulty for themselves. Then what influence or control would we have? None.
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One shouldn't generalise, but from my last visit to Moscow I'd say a large fraction of the Russian public are pre obese and obese middle class types with a penchant for tacky designer jewelry, large flabby one might say vulgar white BMW's that are past their prime and telly talk shows. Not unlike Mancunians really. Suffering is not on their agenda. The wiry self effacing survivalists of stalingrad you describe are a figment of history.
 
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jonathan.agnew

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One of the best things that could happen would be good, well-founded, relations between Russia and the rest of the world.

How do we get there from here?
i dread that this may well go the way of the apartheid regime - decades of sanctions, war, many unmarked graves and dead civilians before this generation of Russians exit stage left and another enter that do not suffer from the same mad cognitive dissonance (only of course for the world to replay this exact same scenario seventy years later after everyone forget the horrors of war, again)
 
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jonathan.agnew

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Polly would laugh at a cart rattling.
There's a bizarre kind of freedom in it we may all soon discover (shades of Tom Waits'
"Oh, they called her Rosie when she was a girl
For her bright red cheeks and her strawberry curls
When she would laugh the river would run
She said she'd be a comedian
Oh what a pity, oh what a shame
When she said, â??come calling', nobody came
Now her bright red cheeks are painted on
And she's laughing her head off in the Reeperbahn")
 

Danidl

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LIAR. Totally untrue. Post after post in here was saying no appeasement and that the Russians should strongly opposed and the Ukrainians supported with arms.

That wasn't for a bloody tea party was it?

The Ukrainian blood is only the hands of Putin, the Americans, the unnecessarily aggressive Ukrainians and those in the west who support such totally unnecessary war.



Again untrue. The over 100 years before 2004 saw the Ukrainians enjoy an independent and privileged statehood as I've posted in great detail. It was after all Russian presidents who made them an independent country and long after gave them even greater powers beyond their own border. Poor things, what terrible suffering to made free and powerful.
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Flecc.. you really have lost it .. Ukraine did not have any idyllic sojourn over the last 100 years. Obviously the war period under Nazis was terrible as was also the 1930 s an the Moscow induced famines. They did fair somewhat better under Krushov.. obvious reason.

Even if the NATO block were obnoxious , they never actually made Ukraine a member . The invasion of Crimea was arguable. The Russian invasion of the Donbass was intended provocation in 2014. Probably had Ukraine given Crimea, Putin would have given back Donbass. Yes there is a minority who are pro Moscow. Well there is a minority in South Co Dublin who are Pro Brit as there is an enclave in West Cork.. Cynical politicians work up these senses of grievances ..and in the case of Donbass they had to bus in support.
There is only one entity responsible for the blood letting in Ukraine this fortnight and its not Ukraine. Its not the USA or even UK . Part of me wishes that they had surrendered abjectly, because I could foresee this carnage as soon as the invasion happened. But it was evident that Putin wanted it all.
 

oldgroaner

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That's fantastic! I wish I could do that... it's got me wanting to have a go again. How long did that take? Could you don a beret and sketch such potraits on a pier, making a pretty penny or several from tourists? I would, if I could draw like that. Great artists are rarely recognised in their own lifetime... definitely leave the house to your older daughter, encourage artistic genes to flourish ;)
I'm too slow that took about an hour and a half, I would just be one of the traditional starving artists!
Can I encourage you to have a go yourself? at least take up drawing things around you, it is very relaxing and yet engaging at the same.
 
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