Brexit, for once some facts.

[guerney]

Has Putin really got miles of video of Trump?

Trump praises ‘genius’ Putin for moving troops to eastern Ukraine
Former president says Russian leader made ‘very savvy’ decision to recognise two territories of eastern Ukraine as independent

Trump praises ‘genius’ Putin for moving troops to eastern Ukraine

Former president says Russian leader made ‘very savvy’ decision to recognise two territories of eastern Ukraine as independent

www.theguardian.com

He's dog whistling the far right part of his base, which regards Russia as "Key to white survival" (quoting David Duke - Harvard International Review April 2021), but maybe also because of hours of unpleasant soggy pee tape stashed in Putin's castle vault.

 

[guerney]

I don't think so this time.
Putin has gone a step too far and bitten off more the he can chew quickly. Yes, without doubt he can win but the Ukrainians are going to ensure a high cost for both sides. His explanations at home are senseless and the Russians will see that. (Denazification when Ukrainian president is Jewish is hardly a good opening gambit)
I think much depends on how many Russians go back home in body bags. He was expecting to walk in to Ukraine as Taliban marched into Afghanistan.. He got that wrong.
This is not going to end quickly as some suggest. Even when/if Ukraine government falls Russia will be incapable of subduing 40 million Ukrainians. They have had freedom and democracy in their grasp. Putin has made a massive miscalculation. His digging himself out could easily see situation escalate beyond Ukraine/Russia. (US now sending a further 6000 troops to Poland)
This is as near to 3rd world war as we have ever been. When Russians realise they are in jesting our anti tank technology I wonder what their reaction will be? That is only one of many to routes for escalation.
Passing this off as Russian internal manoeuvring is not sering situation as it actually is. Ukraine and Russia are at war.

Demonstrations will be smashed, and most significantly, the military will not sway in their support... which ultimately means no removal of Putin is possible. His invasion increases avenues for the acceptance of jingoistic narrative: It's human nature for the waverers (about 50% of the population) to toe the line in a crisis and align with the strongest looking leader; approval ratings of Thatcher and Blair increased during those wars.

 

[Zlatan]

Demonstrations will be smashed, and most significantly, the military will not sway in their support... which ultimately means no removal of Putin is possible. His invasion inceases avenues for the acceptance of jingoistic narrative: It's human nature for the waverers (about 50% of the population) to toe the line in a crisis and align with the strongest looking leader; approval ratings of Thatcher and Blair increased during those wars.

I agree with that and it's why situation is so dangerous. Putin can't have an easy victory but will not back down and its doubtful he'll be overthrown any time soon. Suspect he'd rather escalate conflict than being seen to lose or backdown.
The 3 ways out are not available. (Ukrainians give in, Russians return home, Putin is overthrown, all three are not going to happen in next few weeks, so conflict must be protracted and could easily escalate)
The only hope of a short conflict is Ukrainians accepting Putin rule and doing so peacefully. That is just never going to happen. Your point is actually agreeing with my opinion. There really isn't any likely situation to permit a short localised conflict. It's already nation wide. (Ukraine is the size of France)

 

[guerney]

I agree with that and it's why situation is so dangerous. Putin can't have an easy victory but will not back down and its doubtful he'll be overthrown any time soon. Suspect he'd rather escalate conflict than being seen to lose or backdown.
The 3 ways out are not available. (Ukrainians give in, Russians return home, Putin is overthrown, all three are not going to happen in next few weeks, so conflict must be protracted and could easily escalate)
The only hope of a short conflict is Ukrainians accepting Putin rule and doing so peacefully. That is just never going to happen. Your point is actually agreeing with my opinion. There really isn't any likely situation to permit a short localised conflict. It's already nation wide. (Ukraine is the size of France)

Putin's plan appears to be to cut the head off the snake in Kyiv and fight fires as it's body thrashes about throughout the country - that he's started with a mere 150k or so in troop numbers is largely insignificant; of course it costs far less than stationing millions at the border for immediate mobilisation. How long a guerrilla war rages depends on how determined the Ukrainians are and what resources they are secretly provided with to fight back - I expect there is greatly increased supply and distribution of weapons as we squeak. A long conflict risks China's trade with the West, which would be a shame because demand for ebikes will certainly increase as petrol prices skyrocket, for a time, as well as energy prices in general. Putin needs to double down as Kyiv falls, sending much materiel and many more troops for a rapid, brutal and bloody victory.

A good time to buy Bitcoin was several weeks ago, also gold.

 

[Danidl]

Demonstrations will be smashed, and most significantly, the military will not sway in their support... which ultimately means no removal of Putin is possible. His invasion increases avenues for the acceptance of jingoistic narrative: It's human nature for the waverers (about 50% of the population) to toe the line in a crisis and align with the strongest looking leader; approval ratings of Thatcher and Blair increased during those wars.

The key to this is China ...and they are now demurring from support for Russia. They might have originally bought the Putin line , and even believed that a quick painless victory was in sight. When Putin starts calling Ukrainians Nazis, and with their history of the Japanese, that will not go down well.

 

[flecc]

The only hope of a short conflict is Ukrainians accepting Putin rule and doing so peacefully.

That is what the Georgians did and Putin withdrew.

The Ukrainians are being incredibly stupid by fighting, volunteering to be killed when that is so pointless. Worse still, the West is ruthlessly and knowingly sacrificing them by feeding them more arms and encouraging them to fight just to score against Russia, which is utterly cruel and heartless since they know the Ukrainians will lose.

The very large number of Ukrainian deaths will end up as much blood on Western hands as on Putin's.
.

 

[Zlatan]

Putin's plan appears to be to cut the head off the snake in Kyiv and fight fires as it's body thrashes about throughout the country - that he's started with a mere 150k or so in troop numbers is largely insignificant; of course it costs far less than stationing millions at the border for immediate mobilisation. How long a guerrilla war rages depends on how determined the Ukrainians are and what resources they are secretly provided with to fight back - I expect there is greatly increased supply and distribution of weapons as we squeak. A long conflict risks China's trade with the West, which would be a shame because demand for ebikes will certainly increase as petrol prices skyrocket, for a time, as well as energy prices in general. Putin needs to double down as Kyiv falls, sending much materiel and many more troops for a rapid, brutal and bloody victory.

A good time to buy Bitcoin was several weeks ago, also gold.

That's a massive expense in man power, deaths and finances. Does Russia actually want that? I suspect Putin is fighting a 20th century war in a world with 21st century values.???

 

[Zlatan]

That is what the Georgians did and Putin withdrew.

The Ukrainians are being incredibly stupid by fighting, volunteering to be killed when that is so pointless. Worse still, the West is ruthlessly and knowingly sacrificing them by feeding them more arms and encouraging them to fight just to score against Russia, which is utterly cruel and heartless since they know the Ukrainians will lose.

The very large number of Ukrainian deaths will end up as much blood on Western hands as on Putin's.
.

Why is fighting for freedom against an aggressor stupid Flecc? That's quite a ridiculous statement. And it's an insult to every person who has died fighting for freedom.

 

[flecc]

The key to this is China ...and they are now demurring from support for Russia.

Rather half heartedly.

Their key response to the latest set of sanctions was to announce China will buy the Russian wheat, so still very supportive of Russia's needs.

I think China's approach is best described as walking a dividing line.
.

 

[flecc]

Why is fighting for freedom against an aggressor stupid Flecc? That's quite a ridiculous statement. And it's an insult to every person who has died fighting for freedom.

Read the first line of my post again!! That's why.

Show me a hero and I'll show you an idiot.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

That is what the Georgians did and Putin withdrew.

The Ukrainians are being incredibly stupid by fighting, volunteering to be killed when that is so pointless. Worse still, the West is ruthlessly and knowingly sacrificing them by feeding them more arms and encouraging them to fight just to score against Russia, which is utterly cruel and heartless since they know the Ukrainians will lose.

The very large number of Ukrainian deaths will end up as much blood on Western hands as on Putin's.
.

How can i put it flecc. i appreciate the contrary views you hold, but disagree completely. older i get more I'm acutely aware of degree to which this isn't an attack on democracy as much as an attack on humanity. without relatively free dialogue democracy gives nothing is really worth anything. what would you do if you were Ukrainian? sighting that AK and looking for handy fire ports id wager (its what id be doing despite being a quite neurotic knackered fiftysomething year old)

 

[guerney]

That's a massive expense in man power, deaths and finances. Does Russia actually want that? I suspect Putin is fighting a 20th century war in a world with 21st century values.???

Until Putin's iron grip on the military is parted from his cold dead hands, zeitgeists are irrelevant.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Until Putin's iron grip on the military is parted from his cold dead hands, zeitgeists are irrelevant.

He's likely to go as easily as basar al assad if this goes tits up for him (which, against all odds, seems increasingly likely - can imagine the group think in the Kremlin didn't consider anything beyond posturing). Which may mean were in for an interesting century

 

[flecc]

How can i put it flecc. i appreciate the contrary views you hold, but disagree completely. older i get more I'm acutely aware of degree to which this isn't an attack on democracy as much as an attack on humanity. without relatively free dialogue democracy gives nothing is really worth anything. what would you do if you were Ukrainian? sighting that AK and looking for handy fire ports id wager (its what id be doing despite being a quite neurotic knackered fiftysomething year old)

No way would I be sighting an AK47 at any age in this sort of situation, I am totally opposed to war.

In this world we can find ourselves under many rules, from a liberal benevolent socialism such as Sweden's to a harshly despotic, religion based Ottoman empire. The art of living is to make the best of each that we find ourselves in, and that requires tolerance.

My attitude to an invader is simple:

"Welcome, here's the keys to the office, would you like a cup of tea?"

History over the ages shows how that is always ultimately the right approach. Everybody wants to be loved, even a Putin, even especially such a person.
.

 

[Zlatan]

No way would I be sighting an AK47 at any age in this sort of situation, I am totally opposed to war.

In this world we can find ourselves under many rules, from a liberal benevolent socialism such as Sweden's to a harshly despotic, religion based Ottoman empire. The art of living is to make the best of each that we find ourselves in, and that requires tolerance.

My attitude to an invader is simple:

"Welcome, here's the keys to the office, would you like a cup of tea?"

History over the ages shows how that is always ultimately the right approach. Everybody wants to be loved, even a Putin, even especially such a person.
.

As long as you weren't Jewish in 1939, Ukrainian today, an Uygar in China at moment or a black person in South Africa (or deep south USA) in 60s.
Saying to Russian soldiers, Nazis or ku klux Klan, come in have a cup of tea would have got you shot.
And yes, everybody does want to be loved but not by the groups they choose to persecute flecc.
I wonder what world would be like today had Hitler and Musolini simply been told.. "Welcome, come have a cup of tea".
They both got their just rewards, unfortunately millions died making it so.
Your faith in the human condition is praiseworthy but history shows us unfounded.
There are naturally evil people in the world flecc. Lots of them. Whether Putin is one of them is perhaps open to debate but at moment he's doing a good job of looking a lot like one.

 

[guerney]

He's likely to go as easily as basar al assad if this goes tits up for him (which, against all odds, seems increasingly likely - can imagine the group think in the Kremlin didn't consider anything beyond posturing). Which may mean were in for an interesting century

His friends have much to lose: Putin has made many in the Kremlin rich beyond their wildest dreams. They'll accept all Koolade hospitality.

 

[guerney]

The key to this is China ...and they are now demurring from support for Russia. They might have originally bought the Putin line , and even believed that a quick painless victory was in sight. When Putin starts calling Ukrainians Nazis, and with their history of the Japanese, that will not go down well.

Don't be fooled, their bond runs far deeper than the superficial messaging we're hearing, intended to reasure the West. China is of course Russia's biggest supporter and trading partner, with whom they can trade without resorting to using cryptocurrency to bypass sanctions. Between them they control the supply of nearly all of the world's rare earth's.

US imposes sanctions as Russia invades Ukraine

America may block chip exports if Moscow steps up aggression

www.theregister.com

 

[Zlatan]

Don't be fooled, their bond runs far deeper than the superficial messaging we're hearing, intended to reasure the West. China is of course Russia's biggest supporter and trading partner, with whom they can trade without resorting to using cryptocurrency to bypass sanctions. Between them they control the supply of nearly all of the world's rare earth's.

US imposes sanctions as Russia invades Ukraine

America may block chip exports if Moscow steps up aggression

www.theregister.com

Suspect China is watching closely to world reaction with a view to doing similar in Taiwan. I was surprised they abstained tho... Doubt its the outcome Putin wanted..??? Scary times..

 

[flecc]

As long as you weren't Jewish in 1939, Ukrainian today, an Uygar in China at moment or a black person in South Africa (or deep south USA) in 60s.
Saying to Russian soldiers, Nazis or ku klux Klan, come in have a cup of tea would have got you shot.
Your faith in the human condition is praiseworthy but history shows us unfounded.

No, history and the present shows very different.

The Uyghurs in China who respect China's ways have no problem, it's the resistant ones who cling to Islam who end up in re-education camps.

Many Jews worked voluntarily for the Nazis both before and during the war. Some were vital to the Nazi's nuclear research and held good positions.

And the black population of South Africa during apartheid were discriminated against but were the best dressed and best fed black people in all Africa. After they took over power they often ended up hungry and dressed in rags.

And Ukrainians today would have absolutely no problem if they'd had the common sense to simply say they didn't want to join NATO.

Zlatan, you argue from a sheer lack of knowledge. Ukraine always had a privileged position with Russia from when it was first formed as a country in 1917 with Lenin's approval. In the 1950s Nikita Khrushchev made Ukraine the administrative power for the whole southern region there. They uniquely enjoyed their gas from Russia at a quarter of the world price.

All privileges from being a friend of Russia.

But the USA were continuing with their ambition to surround Russia with NATO countries so used CIA agents in an operation code worded Euromaiden to destabilise the country. This was by tempting them to join the EU with promises of all the benefits that might bring. The CIA succeeded with the formation of the Ukrainian Orange Party, who despite only having the support of a quarter of the population raided parliament in a coup, seizing power.

Being pro joining the EU and NATO, that finished the Ukraine's previously excellent relations with Russia.

All entirely due to the USA,who are the real cause of today's war.

And it was the USA who put an unknown low ranking FSB agent called Putin into power, so immensely compounding their guilt.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

No, history and the present shows very different.

The Uyghurs in China who respect China's ways have no problem, it's the resistant ones who cling to Islam who end up in re-education camps.

Many Jews worked voluntarily for the Nazis both before and during the war. Some were vital to the Nazi's nuclear research and held good positions.

And the black population of South Africa during apartheid were discriminated against but were the best dressed and best fed black people in all Africa. After they took over power they often ended up hungry and dressed in rags.

And Ukrainians today would have absolutely no problem if they'd had the common sense to simply say they didn't want to join NATO.

Zlatan, you argue from a sheer lack of knowledge. Ukraine always had a privileged position with Russia from when it was first formed as a country in 1917 with Lenin's approval. In the 1950s Nikita Khrushchev made Ukraine the administrative power for the whole southern region there. They uniquely enjoyed their gas from Russia at a quarter of the world price.

All privileges from being a friend of Russia.

But the USA were continuing with their ambition to surround Russia with NATO countries so used CIA agents in an operation code worded Euromaiden to destabilise the country. This was by tempting them to join the EU with promises of all the benefits that might bring. The CIA succeeded with the formation of the Ukrainian Orange Party, who despite only having the support of a quarter of the population raided parliament in a coup, seizing power.

Being pro joining the EU and NATO, that finished the Ukraine's previously excellent relations with Russia.

All entirely due to the USA,who are the real cause of today's war.

And it was the USA who put an unknown low ranking FSB agent called Putin into power, so immensely compounding their guilt.
.

What if, in terms of maslow's hierarchy of needs, one prefer freedom and self actualisation to being a well fed slave? I know we all need a degree of material security, but being oppressed, not allowed to live one's life in exchange for minimum wage is not it.