Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

I totally agree with sentiments around maximum benefit for us all. So let's examine your figures.
Assume your higher figure (95%?) achieved after 2 doses. (stopping hospitalisation)
Now let's assume only 75% after a single dose.
Multiply the figure achieved by the number helped to give a figure for total benefit. (assume 3 weeks from now for ease)
Today we have had 21 million fist dose.
So 75%x21 million is roughly 15 million kept away from hospital.(potentially)
Now assume your regime of 2 doses. Halving the number helped. 10.5 million x95%.. Around 9 million kept away from hospital.
Your argument is not correct around it being a political decision. If it is, it will fail, where does that leave BJ? The decision is made for right reasons by those making the decision. Yes, it could be wrong, but its looking as though it is not. Either way calling it political is misled. Even from Johnson's point of view it must be a Sage decision. If its not his political career is absolutely on the line. Short term success (as I explained earlier) is of no use to anyone. Johnson included. Getting a good start in a marathon is important but crossing the line much more so. He knows full well his political future will be decided in perhaps a year's time. He can't risk not getting over the line by jeapordising race with a faulty start. Nobody can.
Your argument defeats itself. Why would he or Sage destroy a good finish for a lead in opinion polls today? It would be sense less and he and Sage simply aren't.

First of all all it takes some days for the Protection to begin from the first dose, and then there is evidence which I have put on here here that the level of protection Falls as time passes so your figures are simply too optimistic, based on Hope rather than facts it is simply a gamble which is unnecessary,the truth is they don't have enough stock to do the job properly it's a simple as that.
And remember this the 15 million you say they could be kept away from hospital might will not be for more than a week or two

 

[Suzan]

First of all all it takes some days for the Protection to begin from the first dose, and then there is evidence which I have put on here here that the level of protection Falls as time passes so your figures are simply too optimistic, based on Hope rather than facts it is simply a gamble which is unnecessary,the truth is they don't have enough stock to do the job properly it's a simple as that.
And remember this the 15 million you say they could be kept away from hospital might will not be for more than a week or two

I see all that but to be fair I do suspect Sage and Johnson have just as good a grasp on data, situation and outcomes as you are I do... So it begs the question why would they shoot themselves in the foot as race starts? Like I said earlier, nobody but nobody has anything to gain by negatively affecting the roll out. Sage and Johnson, despite his past present or future, wants the end product of the vaccination program to be as effective as is absolutely possible. There simply is no gain to be had going long delay on political grounds. (actually it's the reverse, folk will blame Johnson, no matter who made decision if this program fails)
Johnson is (or was, I, m not so sure now) the epitome of a political beast. He has wanted PM job for a decade. He only does things where he sees a gain. There is no gain for him extending delay... Unless it works. And he hasn't the knowledge to have any notion about that. He defers to PV all the time. He, s like a young lad looking for praise from his dad in briefings. Watch him. The person in charge at the moment is PV.
On the supply issue. If they run out early both regimes are useless. Time will tell on that. AZ keep assuring is they can supply 2 million per week. We have Pfizer supplying and a couple of others very soon. I don't personally think supply is a problem. There is spare capacity in EU and SA. Wonder if we will buy those.
What do you see Johnson benefitting from for sabotaging the roll out?

Covid vaccines may stop spread ‘almost completely’

Fresh boost for Britain as vaccines appear to block virus transmission

www.standard.co.uk

 

[Danidl]

This site is very strange.
Nobody has criticised government and their structure in past more than I.
This morning UK has vaccinated 92,000 plus people. We are at a total of 28.57 per 100 head of population. Germany is at 6.8,France 6.0 and Ireland 7.2.
Even if we had gone down shorter delay route we would still be at roughly 15 per 100 head... There really is no comparison on Vaccine front with us and our European neighbours.
We have vaccinated at over x4 over Germany and we are still vaccinating faster.
How on earth can people knock that achievement.

Nobody has knocked the achievement. But remember they in the UK were doing vaccination for 3 months , and the rest of Europe for 2 , and the rest of Europe was stymied because the product they expected was not present which cost a minimum of a week in lost productivity.
But also accept that until you give the double jab, nobody is vaccinated, they are in process.
Now unless you are using yet another nom de plume , , you have not been criticising anyone on this site.

 

[oldgroaner]

I see all that but to be fair I do suspect Sage and Johnson have just as good a grasp on data, situation and outcomes as you are I do... So it begs the question why would they shoot themselves in the foot as race starts? Like I said earlier, nobody but nobody has anything to gain by negatively affecting the roll out. Sage and Johnson, despite his past present or future, wants the end product of the vaccination program to be as effective as is absolutely possible. There simply is no gain to be had going long delay on political grounds. (actually it's the reverse, folk will blame Johnson, no matter who made decision if this program fails)
Johnson is (or was, I, m not so sure now) the epitome of a political beast. He has wanted PM job for a decade. He only does things where he sees a gain. There is no gain for him extending delay... Unless it works. And he hasn't the knowledge to have any notion about that. He defers to PV all the time. He, s like a young lad looking for praise from his dad in briefings. Watch him. The person in charge at the moment is PV.
On the supply issue. If they run out early both regimes are useless. Time will tell on that. AZ keep assuring is they can supply 2 million per week. We have Pfizer supplying and a couple of others very soon. I don't personally think supply is a problem. There is spare capacity in EU and SA. Wonder if we will buy those.
What do you see Johnson benefitting from for sabotaging the roll out?

What do I see? the numbers game being placed to offset previous blunders in the public eye.
Everything this government does is done with that in mind.
Let us go back to the vaccine sourcing
Why did Johnson and co agree to Pfizers being absolved of liability for it's vaccine a higher price for it?

The EU invested The EU financially supported the development of the BioNTech and Pfizer vaccine and has obtained a lower price per dose £10:60
We are told we got the vaccine first from them because we ordered first, when in fact we bribed them to jump the queue paying £15:00 waiving liability for the manufacturer.
Expediency ruled,why wait when you can bribe your way to the front of the queue?
With the devastating deaths figures you would have to be naive to think this wasn't done because someone's panicking rather than making a pragmatic decision,
After all the same bribing technique had been used previously over PPE, and which now Hancock has taken to lying that there was never a shortage.

This Government regards public heath as secondary to it's own popularity

 

[Suzan]

Nobody has knocked the achievement. But remember they in the UK were doing vaccination for 3 months , and the rest of Europe for 2 , and the rest of Europe was stymied because the product they expected was not present which cost a minimum of a week in lost productivity.
But also accept that until you give the double jab, nobody is vaccinated, they are in process.
Now unless you are using yet another nom de plume , , you have not been criticising anyone on this site.

I wasn't talking about this site. There are other places and people to discuss our government with Danidl.
I don't understand your point at all. Uk have not only administered 4 times as many jabs as Germany. They are vaccinating more daily. Many more. Roughly 30,000 per hour are getting jabs here.??? What is your point?
And you are knocking the roll out policy. Why deny it.?
This place gets odder and odder. You just argue and change what you say. Well some do.
"I, m not knocking the roll out but what about the only single doses" "I, m not knocking the UK roll out but they did start a month before..."
Just about 4 times as many as any European country jabs administered. All done in first month Danidl??
Seems rather endemic on here. Its strange.

 

[Suzan]

What do I see? the numbers game being placed to offset previous blunders in the public eye.
Everything this government does is done with that in mind.
Let us go back to the vaccine sourcing
Why did Johnson and co agree to Pfizers being absolved of liability for it's vaccine a higher price for it?

The EU invested The EU financially supported the development of the BioNTech and Pfizer vaccine and has obtained a lower price per dose £10:60
We are told we got the vaccine first from them because we ordered first, when in fact we bribed them to jump the queue paying £15:00 waiving liability for the manufacturer.
Expediency ruled,why wait when you can bribe your way to the front of the queue?
With the devastating deaths figures you would have to be naive to think this wasn't done because someone's panicking rather than making a pragmatic decision,
After all the same bribing technique had been used previously over PPE, and which now Hancock has taken to lying that there was never a shortage.

This Government regards public heath as secondary to it's own popularity

That could be all true but you haven't answered the question. What has Johnson to gain by jeapordising roll out by extending delay. What does he gain by the change in policy? At best short term popularity.. All to evaporate if you are proved right. There simply is no upside for Johnson risking roll out. But, as I, ve said tell them me if there are. Johnson is actually in awe of PV. (or making out to be) As I, ve said watch them. Its plain as day who is calling shots at moment.He, s handed over to PV for a reason.
The Governments popularity is intertwined with public health. If public health is seen to have suffered because of Johnson's alleged interference the Government will lose popularity. That was exactly my point. Its why Johnson can't be seen to influence Sage or when he does it must succeed.
Saying Johnson decided on policy over extending delay has no basis in that it is lose lose for him. Like I keep asking what is upside for him. There isn't one, especially so if delay fails.
If it succeeds, he is no more popular than now. If it fails.. Suspect it would finish him.
There is absolutely no political point in him making that decision. He is too politically aware.
I, ve met Johnson. He is not the bumbling fool he portrays. Its an act. He knows how to play the political game, you don't get to be PM without. He would avoid making that decision like bubonic plague. It would be immediately "What do you think Patrick?"
Now ending or starting lockdown is completely different. He can blame IDS and the Hawks if too lax and Sage if too severe. I tell you, in his own way, he's a genius.
There is no way on earth Johnson had input on the delay decision. Its way too specific for him.
If there ever is a day of reckoning I, ll bet our house Johnson is covered(on this issue) It will be PV in firing line. Not Johnson.

 

[oyster]

It’s not difficult. If you should have had a test, but haven’t, book one. I don’t see the problem.

You say the auto booking system in Wales is working well. If that’s the case, people won’t need to book themselves in, so that negates any confusion.

People hear, read, watch the news or a government announcement. It says something like people can now book their vaccinations. But does not say that applies to England only.

Those people then go off to try to find out where, when, how to do so. And, certainly if they live in Wales, they will fail. (There is a small number who have somehow been missed who can and should get in touch with someone.)

That both confused some people and undermined the trust those people will have in future.

All for the sake of adding "in England".

 

[oyster]

That could be all true but you haven't answered the question. What has Johnson to gain by jeapordising roll out by extending delay. What does he gain by the change in policy? At best short term popularity.. All to evaporate if you are proved right. There simply is no upside for Johnson risking roll out. But, as I, ve said tell them me if there are. Johnson is actually in awe of PV. (or making out to be) As I, ve said watch them. Its plain as day who is calling shots at moment.He, s handed over to PV for a reason.
The Governments popularity is intertwined with public health. If public health is seen to have suffered because of Johnson's alleged interference the Government will lose popularity. That was exactly my point. Its why Johnson can't be seen to influence Sage or when he does it must succeed.
Saying Johnson decided on policy over extending delay has no basis in that it is lose lose for him. Like I keep asking what is upside for him. There isn't one, especially so if delay fails.
If it succeeds, he is no more popular than now. If it fails.. Suspect it would finish him.
There is absolutely no political point in him making that decision. He is too politically aware.
I, ve met Johnson. He is not the bumbling fool he portrays. Its an act. He knows how to play the political game, you don't get to be PM without. He would avoid making that decision like bubonic plague. It would be immediately "What do you think Patrick?"
Now ending or starting lockdown is completely different. He can blame IDS and the Hawks if too lax and Sage if too severe. I tell you, in his own way, he's a genius.
There is no way on earth Johnson had input on the delay decision. Its way too specific for him.
If there ever is a day of reckoning I, ll bet our house Johnson is covered(on this issue) It will be PV in firing line. Not Johnson.

Johnson doesn't necessarily understand what he is jeopardising at the time he does whatever he does.

Some of us might point out a way in which his decisions could come back and haunt him. But Johnson possibly thinks otherwise. And he does have a tendency assume he will get past any issues that are thrown up.

 

[Danidl]

I wasn't talking about this site. There are other places and people to discuss our government with Danidl.
I don't understand your point at all. Uk have not only administered 4 times as many jabs as Germany. They are vaccinating more daily. Many more. Roughly 30,000 per hour are getting jabs here.??? What is your point?
And you are knocking the roll out policy. Why deny it.?
This place gets odder and odder. You just argue and change what you say. Well some do.
"I, m not knocking the roll out but what about the only single doses" "I, m not knocking the UK roll out but they did start a month before..."
Just about 4 times as many as any European country jabs administered. All done in first month Danidl??
Seems rather endemic on here. Its strange.

Not the policy of vaccination .. but the Strategy of single jabs. My particular interest is obviously in Ireland but I have family interests in Germany also. The figures for Germany to end of February would be that in some states 3.8% of people have been properly vaccinated and 5

I wasn't talking about this site. There are other places and people to discuss our government with Danidl.
I don't understand your point at all. Uk have not only administered 4 times as many jabs as Germany. They are vaccinating more daily. Many more. Roughly 30,000 per hour are getting jabs here.??? What is your point?
And you are knocking the roll out policy. Why deny it.?
This place gets odder and odder. You just argue and change what you say. Well some do.
"I, m not knocking the roll out but what about the only single doses" "I, m not knocking the UK roll out but they did start a month before..."
Just about 4 times as many as any European country jabs administered. All done in first month Danidl??
Seems rather endemic on here. Its strange.

I am not knocking the rollout policy. I am and remain critical of the UK Strategy of single Jabs. The country I am obviously more concerned with is Ireland, and the information I get is that here we , despite starting 33% LATER than the UK have properly vaccinated twice the percentage. I have less knowledge of Germany, but their statistics indicate that within 2 months most of the federal states have jabbed 7 % of their populations. And have properly vaccinated 3 times the percentage as have the UK. The actual figures are 6.2M jabs of which 2M are second jabs.
I believe if you go over my previous postings, you will find that I have been consistent. The UK was rash in its strategy, but at least in the short term,it seems to be paying off.

 

[Woosh]

The UK was rash in its strategy, but at least in the short term,it seems to be paying off.

we have also benefited from the lockdown and recent spell of dry and warmer weather so the numbers moved quickly in the right direction.
We'll see how the numbers move when the wind and rain return.

 

[oldgroaner]

That could be all true but you haven't answered the question. What has Johnson to gain by jeapordising roll out by extending delay. What does he gain by the change in policy? At best short term popularity.. All to evaporate if you are proved right. There simply is no upside for Johnson risking roll out. But, as I, ve said tell them me if there are. Johnson is actually in awe of PV. (or making out to be) As I, ve said watch them. Its plain as day who is calling shots at moment.He, s handed over to PV for a reason.
The Governments popularity is intertwined with public health. If public health is seen to have suffered because of Johnson's alleged interference the Government will lose popularity. That was exactly my point. Its why Johnson can't be seen to influence Sage or when he does it must succeed.
Saying Johnson decided on policy over extending delay has no basis in that it is lose lose for him. Like I keep asking what is upside for him. There isn't one, especially so if delay fails.
If it succeeds, he is no more popular than now. If it fails.. Suspect it would finish him.
There is absolutely no political point in him making that decision. He is too politically aware.
I, ve met Johnson. He is not the bumbling fool he portrays. Its an act. He knows how to play the political game, you don't get to be PM without. He would avoid making that decision like bubonic plague. It would be immediately "What do you think Patrick?"
Now ending or starting lockdown is completely different. He can blame IDS and the Hawks if too lax and Sage if too severe. I tell you, in his own way, he's a genius.
There is no way on earth Johnson had input on the delay decision. Its way too specific for him.
If there ever is a day of reckoning I, ll bet our house Johnson is covered(on this issue) It will be PV in firing line. Not Johnson.

I did answer the question he's playing the numbers game ,you missed that, it looks better in terms of numbers if you stick to one dose and half do the job, that's why it's doing it, simple enough so he can claim to be world beating, the government's popularity with the public relies on fooling them into thinking that the best interests of the public motivates them.
Johnson is no genius as one of the TV interviewers described him is a nasty piece of work , conman charlatan and liar.
He is a danger to the public from the beginning of this pandemic he has made everything infinitely worse and there's absolutely no sign that he's going to be any better from this point on

 

[Suzan]

I did answer the question he's playing the numbers game ,you missed that, it looks better in terms of numbers if you stick to one dose and half do the job, that's why it's doing it, simple enough so he can claim to be world beating, the government's popularity with the public relies on fooling them into thinking that the best interests of the public motivates them.
Johnson is no genius as one of the TV interviewers described him is a nasty piece of work , conman charlatan and liar.
He is a danger to the public from the beginning of this pandemic he has made everything infinitely worse and there's absolutely no sign that he's going to be any better from this point on

Actually, you have not answered the question at all. I asked how he benefitted by making the decision about delaying second jab. There isn't a single thing in your answer relating to a benefit for him, so we can assume you are in agreement there are none. So in a way you are agreeing his making that decision is utterly pointless. Evidence again he didn't make it.
Saying he is playing the numbers game is merely obtuse and meaningless. A numbers game that will, if you are correct, show his alledged decision to be a wrong one.
Think we have wasted enough time on this. You aren't going to realise it wasn't in his interests to make that decision. He can only lose by making it. But you can't see it.
We, ll leave it that he made the decision to jeapordise the roll out and ruin his political career.But, Mark my words if anyone falls on their sword over jab delay it will be PV.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Actually, you have not answered the question at all. I asked how he benefitted by making the decision about delaying second jab. There isn't a single thing in your answer relating to a benefit for him, so we can assume you are in agreement there are none. So in a way you are agreeing his making that decision is utterly pointless. Evidence again he didn't make it.

Well, he/it managed to get you and no doubt a bunch of other equally artless tories back on side. Which, given his utter mismanagement of the pandemic, must be an achievement.

 

[oldgroaner]

Actually, you have not answered the question at all. I asked how he benefitted by making the decision about delaying second jab. There isn't a single thing in your answer relating to a benefit for him, so we can assume you are in agreement there are none. So in a way you are agreeing his making that decision is utterly pointless. Evidence again he didn't make it.
Saying he is playing the numbers game is merely obtuse and meaningless. A numbers game that will, if you are correct, show his alledged decision to be a wrong one.
Think we have wasted enough time on this. You aren't going to realise it wasn't in his interests to make that decision. He can only lose by making it. But you can't see it.
We, ll leave it that he made the decision to jeapordise the roll out and ruin his political career.But, Mark my words if anyone falls on their sword over jab delay it will be PV.

Sorry but this is silly, I most certainly did answer your question , but you persist in refusing to
comprehend, however I agree you have wasted too much time on this.

 

[Suzan]

Well, he/it managed to get you and no doubt a bunch of other equally artless tories back on side. Which, given his utter mismanagement of the pandemic, must be an achievement.

Well no, because I know he didn't make the decision to delay the jab. For once he listened to PV, as he now has over the 5 week delay over reopening. Johnson merely endorsed the decisions. Like I, ve said on 3 occasions there is simply no benefit at all for him carrying can over the specific details like jab delay. He merely wants to bathe in its glory if it succeeds and blame others if it fails. Seems you have more faith in his abilities and character than I do. He, s too slippy to make such a monumental, specific detail. It can only haunt him.

 

[Suzan]

Sorry but this is silly, I most certainly did answer your question , but you persist in refusing to
comprehend, however I agree you have wasted too much time on this.

Utter rubbish.

 

[oldgroaner]

Well no, because I know he didn't make the decision to delay the jab. For once he listened to PV, as he now has over the 5 week delay over reopening. Johnson merely endorsed the decisions. Like I, ve said on 3 occasions there is simply no benefit at all for him carrying can over the specific details like jab delay. He merely wants to bathe in its glory if it succeeds and blame others if it fails. Seems you have more faith in his abilities and character than I do. He, s too slippy to make such a monumental, specific detail. It can only haunt him.

Making stupid decisions with far reaching unfortunate consequences is something he is no stranger to

 

[oldgroaner]

Utter rubbish.

100% fake perchance?

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Well no, because I know he didn't make the decision to delay the jab. For once he listened to PV, as he now has over the 5 week delay over reopening. Johnson merely endorsed the decisions. Like I, ve said on 3 occasions there is simply no benefit at all for him carrying can over the specific details like jab delay. He merely wants to bathe in its glory if it succeeds and blame others if it fails. Seems you have more faith in his abilities and character than I do. He, s too slippy to make such a monumental, specific detail. It can only haunt him.

I have complete confidence in boris' ability to make ruthless, expedient decisions for short term political gain in the full knowledge that it will cost innocent lives. He has done that before, it's what he does, leopards and spots come to mind

 

[Suzan]

Making stupid decisions with far reaching unfortunate consequences is something he is no stranger to

Agreed... But he also insists and will have evidence he follows the science. On this occasion its blatant he didn't follow the science (from Pfizer anyway) so he will not have made that decision. PV will have. I, m not saying anything positive about Johnson, quite the reverse. When it all comes out Johnson will probably not even been at meeting that decision was taken.Its simply not his style.
And he hasn't made even short term political gains... If it fails. He is too clever to risk long term gain for short. He didn't need to. He's in no 10,no election in site. There really is no point in short term 10 point gain opinion poll to throw everything away in 3 months time.
You watch, in time to come Johnson will not be smeered at all if this decision is shown to be wrong. No chance. My father used to say. "when you catch a weasel, pee in its earhole". Nobody will be peeing in Johnson's.