You raise some good questions. As a general rule, you can get the facts from the Guardian by reading it, then turning anything they say the opposite way round to get the truth.
The people making the decisions may well be in possession of the facts, but they always have their own agenda. They will go with their agenda regardless of what facts say they should do, and they'll spin the facts into whatever story helps justify the decisions that they make. They often look stupid, but they're not. It's you who's stupid believing that they make their decisions with good intentions for you. Why would they?
Already, the graphs that they tried to bamboozle us with have been analysed and shown to be bunk, like we all expected. I know from my long history of very successful problem solving in industry that when people try to justify something in any complicated way, they're putting up a smoke screen to hide the truth, which is normally something very simple. when I was a consultant, I used to train people to look out for that technique.