Brexit, for once some facts.

[derf]

The problem that you have quoting these "independent expert bodies" is that they have a tendency to be spectacularly wrong with their predictions. These organisations were forecasting immediate Armageddon requiring an emergency budget following a BREXIT vote. The reality is that the reverse of what they predicted has happened and that is a fact. Other respected bodies forecast that BREXIT will benefit the country.

Because you, OG and the other remainers have a predisposition to favour anti-BREXIT news you actually believe the forecasts which predict disadvantages associated with BREXIT.

Likewise, my bias is towards a more optimistic post BREXIT outlook. But I may be wrong and that is why we have a referendum, to see what the majority of people want to do.

I don't think the "stick with what you know" approach is particularly attractive one. I don't like the idea of being imprisoned by a fear of trying something new and different. I favour exploring options which have potential to benefit us. My personal view is that the EU is in its death throws and we are better off out of it, but retaining a friendly and helpful relationship with our European neighbours.

they haven't been spectacularly wrong with their predictions. the only reason you only half a half an Armageddon is because brexit has only half happened. which "other respected bodies" forecast that brexit will benefit the country?
in a more serious vein. do you find yourself instinctively denying everything you're presented with in other major decisions in your life, or is it only with brexit? I'm trying to understand this phenomenon of denying reality. I gather your involved with aircraft maintennance. do you find yourself thinking, "screw this, I'm sending this baby up without fuel, air may be denser than liquid and besides who are these so called experts like newton, who gave them authority to comment on gravity? anyway, who ever said the obese middle-aged bourgeois cant fly"

 

[tillson]

I hope this link works. Gentlemen, the marvellous Jacob Rees Mogg.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1111744532257120

 

[anotherkiwi]

If I go to the UK I have to show my passport and the person asks me "how long are you staying sir?" or "What is the purpose of your visit?"

When I go to Spain I walk or ride my bike over an imaginary line and no one is even there to ask any questions.

The first seems a hell of a lot like border control to me, but then again I have been stamped "stupid" by the trolls...

 

[tillson]

they haven't been spectacularly wrong with their predictions. the only reason you only half a half an Armageddon is because brexit has only half happened.

But we have not even experienced a half Armageddon. The reverse is happening.

 

[derf]

But we have not even experienced a half Armageddon. The reverse is happening.

the market/investors are hard nosed and entirely preoccupied with facts. they are not having speculative conversations about perspective. the uk has made a very bad economic decision. it hasn't quite implemented it, and it may not. but foreign investment is fleeing. and well it should.

 

[derf]

the market/investors are hard nosed and entirely preoccupied with facts. they are not having speculative conversations about perspective. the uk has made a very bad economic decision. it hasn't quite implemented it, and it may not. but foreign investment is fleeing. and well it should.

here's the OECD's take
http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-forecast-summary-united-kingdom-oecd-economic-outlook-november-2016.pdf
note the oecd is funded by most first world countries
http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpartners/list-oecd-member-countries.htm
in a spirit of reaching out to the brexitters on the forum, I would add that I can quite understand if you dismiss this body as "unreliable" and prefer to take your advice from Bumfree the local racist hobo, or simply put your hands over your ears and shout nanananana

 

[Zlatan]

In Minford and Lyons investigation into effects of Brexit they predicted a 2% inrease in productivity, a 5% increase in competitiveness over EU and a 1.5% increase in wages over those of EU by end of decade. ( Report was by a group of 8 city economists ( non political in theory) Their major comment on top of our increased competitiveness over eu was that treasury report was biased and full of propaganda. ( the report is available for all) Yes remainers will simply dismiss it , but its a,complete fallacy to believe the only predictions are negative. Its quite the reverse, if you care to look.

Yes , IMF and Euro based investigations simply want best for Europe as a whole consequently they lean towards our staying, which without doubt would be of benefit for rest over EU but on purely UK based criteria investigations nearly all say we are better out. Just read Hargreaves..
Why do you think EU is so against our leaving, its not because they want us or anything along those lines. They want the income UK generates for eu.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

You do realise its already happening.

This is the email I got from our currency broker this morning.

Pound heads in the same direction as manufacturing levels

A weak pound is good for exports, which subsequently stimulates domestic manufacturing. Theoretically yes, in reality it seems no. An unexpected outcome that saw the pound suffer.

Both the euro (EUR) and US dollar (USD) strengthened against the pound as a result, despite negative data emanating from each economy.

 

[derf]

In Minford and Lyons investigation into effects of Brexit they predicted a 2% inrease in productivity, a 5% increase in competitiveness over EU and a 1.5% increase in wages over those of EU by end of decade. ( Report was by a group of 8 city economists ( non political in theory) Their major comment on top of our increased competitiveness over eu was that treasury report was biased and full of propaganda. ( the report is available for all) Yes remainers will simply dismiss it , but its a,complete fallacy to believe the only predictions are negative. Its quite the reverse, if you care to look.

Yes , IMF and Euro based investigations simply want best for Europe as a whole consequently they lean towards our staying, which without doubt would be of benefit for rest over EU but on purely UK based criteria investigations nearly all say we are better out. Just read Hargreaves..
Why do you think EU is so against our leaving, its not because they want us or anything along those lines. They want the income UK generates for eu.

90% of economists polled by ipsos mori said brexit will damage uk economy
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/28/poll-shows-economists-overwhelmingly-agree-on-effect-of-brexit/
it's a bit like the consensus on climate change in the scientific community. you will always find a few nut jobs who have been bribed by someone to lend credence to a political agenda. I gather Minford was one of thatcher's economic advisers? lovely.

 

[tillson]

90% of economists polled by ipsos mori said brexit will damage uk economy.

Polls. Will you never learn.

 

[Zlatan]

90% of economists polled by ipsos mori said brexit will damage uk economy
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/28/poll-shows-economists-overwhelmingly-agree-on-effect-of-brexit/
it's a bit like the consensus on climate change in the scientific community. you will always find a few nut jobs who have been bribed by someone to lend credence to a political agenda. I gather Minford was one of thatcher's economic advisers? lovely.

I don't think that's quite fair derf. I hardly think Minford, Lyons and Hargreaves can be dismissed as nuts. I know Hargreaves is totally un biased and non political. His only concern for last 40 years has been making money for HL and his clients. I don't think same can be said of OECD..( based in France and leaning towards best for all..not UK.)
Its easy to find some expert to say what you want to hear. I,ve read Minford,Lyons and Hargreaves because I know they are not politically motivated. They are cash motivated. Yes, cynical,but if I wanted to know about football I,d ask Fergusson and ignore papers and terraces. I think the inclination is to listen to terraces and what's read in papers. Its nothing to do with how many, its who they are, what they are saying and why. I,d put my money on Hargreaves on anything to do with finances. Just Google the bloke, read his report,look at his background.

Surely polls have been discredited by now.

 

[derf]

Polls. Will you never learn.

ah, an opinion. as Eastwood points out, they are like rectums, everyone has one.

 

[Croxden]

I hope this link works. Gentlemen, the marvellous Jacob Rees Mogg.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1111744532257120

Oh he's such a thespian.

 

[Kudoscycles]

The problem that you have quoting these "independent expert bodies" is that they have a tendency to be spectacularly wrong with their predictions. These organisations were forecasting immediate Armageddon requiring an emergency budget following a BREXIT vote. The reality is that the reverse of what they predicted has happened and that is a fact. Other respected bodies forecast that BREXIT will benefit the country.

Because you, OG and the other remainers have a predisposition to favour anti-BREXIT news you actually believe the forecasts which predict disadvantages associated with BREXIT.

Likewise, my bias is towards a more optimistic post BREXIT outlook. But I may be wrong and that is why we have a referendum, to see what the majority of people want to do.

I don't think the "stick with what you know" approach is particularly attractive one. I don't like the idea of being imprisoned by a fear of trying something new and different. I favour exploring options which have potential to benefit us. My personal view is that the EU is in its death throws and we are better off out of it, but retaining a friendly and helpful relationship with our European neighbours.

Sorry to be a bore old Tillson but what does an optimistic post Brexit look like? We had a referendum to try to cure an age old disease inside the Tory party,we weren't meant to vote leave but we did. Now that disease has spread to half the country,the disease seems to affect the brain function,it seems it can only be cured by a heavy dose of right wing medicine,followed by incurable austerity.
The referendum was simple to execute but incredibly complex in its outcome,I dont think anyone really understood what they were voting for.
The result has now been hi-jacked by a very right wing Tory party,given a shove every so often by UKIP,unfortunately it has happened at a time when we have very weak opposition to balance the worst effects.
It was advisory but now it seems it is obligatory,we should have an open discussion to see what the plan and end game looks like,but this government are determined that democracy should not prevail.
I hope I am wrong but I can see the poor of this country rioting when they realise that May and Co have properly stitched them up and life is very tough....Hammond has already started down that path.
KudosDave

 

[Zlatan]

As normal good post kudos...
But..... You,ve asked many times what vision of post Brexit UK is...well is sort of similar to now but with greater sovereignty, more productive, better wages and more content citizens....yep perhaps not but what's your vision of UK post none brexit? Westminster disbanded eventually, us being a poir second and third to France and Germany ...
Nobody knows what country will look like either way. There are severe risks either way. Personally think risks staying outweigh leaving.
Referendum was never viewed as advisory, had it been such turn out would have been 30%...not 72..

 

[oldgroaner]

Don't be daft OG; our man from France or the North Pole....unless he has performed another moonlight flit.....is the definitive example of one who launches headlong into a fatal battle of wits while only half-prepared. For some people, it really is best to say nothing and be thought a fool.........

Tom

Oh Tom, how can you say that?
He is almost as much a Legend in his own imagination as his alter ego, Lord Nigel!

 

[oldtom]

Oh he's such a thespian.

Croxden, I'm shocked at you! He may be a despicable piece of work who has never known what it is like to be poor and goes out of his way to ensure the class difference in British society cannot be narrowed but his sexual proclivities are really none of your business.

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

I don't think the "stick with what you know" approach is particularly attractive one. I don't like the idea of being imprisoned by a fear of trying something new and different. I favour exploring options which have potential to benefit us. My personal view is that the EU is in its death throws and we are better off out of it, but retaining a friendly and helpful relationship with our European neighbours.

Firstly it's throes not throws,and what we are about to do isn't to try something new, but to do what Einstein cautioned against
Running the same experiment again and expecting a different result.
The only difference being that we are infinitely worse of than we were back then and are about to do the equivalent of fighting the "Battle of Britain" again, but this time the RAF will be equipped with Tiger Moths and the Enemy with Eurofighters.

 

[oldgroaner]

I hope this link works. Gentlemen, the marvellous Jacob Rees Mogg.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1111744532257120

That's amazing as there are no visible strings and any sign of the ventriloquist with his hand up the back working the movements of this muppet

 

[oldgroaner]

ah, an opinion. as Eastwood points out, they are like rectums, everyone has one.

Unfortunately some of them like Lord Nigel have the vocal chords located there too.