Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

There is not now, and will never be, a vaccine against Human Stupidity

Not quite correct.

The vaccine against human stupidity is already known and well understood from several previous incidents with other species.

It's called extinction.
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[Danidl]

I was watching an interview yesterday on CNBC with Nassim Taleb probably most well known for his 2007 book The Black Swan. He is an ex options trader and very bright, he made the following comments regarding the wearing of face masks or face covering with regards to prevention of virus spreading.

He said he could not understand why governments all around the world were not making it mandatory in public places to wear face masks or face covering and went on to explain it like this.

If a person is spreading the virus (lets assume unknowingly) but is wearing a mask (lets assume the mask is inefficient and only prevents about 50% of the virus from escaping) then if that person is joined by someone else who is also unknowingly a virus spreader but is also wearing an inefficient mask (lets say 50% efficiency once again). Then the amount of virus that could be spread by these two individuals has been reduced by 75%.

Initially when I heard this, it didn’t sound right, but I have read Talebs book in the past and knew how sharp he was so I thought I would look into this claim. I think he is using probability theory to come up with this 75% number.

Here is a quick reminder of how this works. Imagine you have two fair coins, each coin when tossed has a 50% chance of coming up heads and a 50% chance of coming up tails.
In order to work out the probability of tossing both coins together and getting two heads or two tails then we multiply the two 50% probabilities together. So, we get

0.5 X 0.5 = 0.25

Therefore, there is only a 25% chance of this occurring. Or to put it another way there is a 75% chance of it not happening. This I think is where Taleb is getting the 75% number from.

During the interview he went on to say that if you have more than two people wearing the inefficient masks then it does not take many until you have massively reduced the amount of virus being released.

For example imagine we are in a supermarket and there are 6 virus spreaders present all wearing inefficient masks (50% efficiency). Then the amount of virus that can be spread in the store by these six people will be reduced by :-

0.5 X 0.5 X 0.5 X 0.5 X 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.016 or 1.6% so the amount of virus spread by these six people has been reduced by a massive 98.4% just by wearing inefficient masks.

Can anyone see either something wrong with my math or something wrong with the logic? This all seems like its an absolute no brainer for everyone to be wearing masks or face coverings in public places.

Now I’m certain the scientists advising the government will be well aware of probability theory so is there something Taleb is not taking into account other than Governments being worried that the public may take all the supply of face masks and leave none for health care workers.

Does anyone know how efficient face masks are in preventing the release of the virus? Perhaps the 50% efficiency of masks is too ambitious and maybe they only prevent 20% or less of the virus being released.

I think I have read that simple home-made masks can prevent 80% or more of the virus being released which would make the math work out even better.

Anyone got any thoughts on this?

Nev has answered this ..
Assume you are an emitter and wearing a mask holding back 50% , well then you emit 1/2 of what you might have done . If I do not have the infection and also wear a mask of equal efficiency, then I will absorb 25% of the viral load ,at the same distance,as I would have if neither of us had masks. .So I could stay there 4 times longer for the same risk.
If there are 10 emitters in the area, none wearing masks the average viral load is 10 times as bad, if each of them is wearing a mask, then it is 5 times as bad . If all 11 of us are mask wearing then it is 2.5 times worse for me than having just you in the vicinity, and both you and I maskless.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

To take your minds off Coronavirus

Answers to Mr B Shittpeas and don’t forget to include a postal order for 10 shillings please.

 

[oldgroaner]

I've spoken more with the checkout girl at my local co-op than my neighbours...

People will notice nudge, nudge, wink wink

 

[flecc]

To take your minds off Coronavirus

Answers to Mr B Shittpeas and don’t forget to include a postal order for 10 shillings please.

View attachment 34933

Mathmetician's answer = 26

Economist's answer = 26, give or take 10%

Accountant's answer = What do you want it to be?
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[Barry Shittpeas]

Mathmetician's answer = 26

Economist's answer = 26, give or take 10%

Accountant's answer = What do you want it to be?
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A good try, but I’m afraid that answer is incorrect.

 

[flecc]

A good try, but I’m afraid that answer is incorrect.

Tell the three of them.
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[Barry Shittpeas]

I’m just looking at Priti Patel’s career history. She has literally done nothing and has zero work experience outside of politics. It shows.

 

[oldgroaner]

But it's a plane, our homes don't have the landing and takeoff strip it needs. Many flats don't even have anywhere for a 'copter to land. Routine drone deliveries will never happen, it was always a daft idea, the futurists getting carried away again.
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We should contract this supply job to the luftwaffe, they managed to deliver a package to two houses where mother was living while she was carrying me, even though she didn't file a forwarding address, and at night too!
An example to us all I should say

 

[oldgroaner]

Tell the three of them.
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Tell him flecc,

When following the Science
"A bad answer is better than no answer
However no answer will suffice
if it's lots cheaper than a good answer
Or even a bad one if it comes to that"

 

[oldgroaner]

Priti Patel ridiculed after announcing ‘shoplifting is down’ compared to year before https://theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/priti-patel-ridiculed-after-announcing-shoplifting-is-down-compared-to-year-before-1-6624258
oldgroaner@oldgroaner

I like that! the shelves are bare through Panic Buying so Shoplifting is down? This is a akin to the teenager returning a parent's new car he or she had borrowed saying "The good news is the Airbags work!"

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

But it's a plane, our homes don't have the landing and takeoff strip it needs. Many flats don't even have anywhere for a 'copter to land. Routine drone deliveries will never happen, it was always a daft idea, the futurists getting carried away again.
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The big problem with 4 rotor drones is they are four times more likely to drop out of the sky than a single rotor machine due to a motor / blade malfunction.

They are ok as toys or for surveying in close proximity to the operator. As a means of transporting cargo or people, it isn’t going to happen in a public/ urban environment anytime soon.

 

[flecc]

Not long now, Lockdown is falling apart.

There's been an increase in car driving, Wizz Airline is going to restart some flights from Luton Airport to such as the Canaries, Greggs are experimentally opening some outlets in Newcastle, and others are considering similar.

Schools will reopen and people sent back to work on Monday 1st of June or Monday 29th of June latest.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Not long now, Lockdown is falling apart.

There's been an increase in car driving, Wizz Airline is going to restart some flights from Luton Airport to such as the Canaries, Greggs are experimentally opening some outlets in Newcastle, and others are considering similar.

Schools will reopen and people sent back to work on Monday 1st of June or Monday 29th of June latest.

It‘s been falling apart for over a week. People think it’s job done, they are removing their parachutes mid descent because it‘s slowed their rate of fall. Guess what happens when you take your parachute off when you are still 5000’ above the ground?

They’ve been warned.

 

[Nev]

A good try, but I’m afraid that answer is incorrect.

Is the answer 56?

 

[Nev]

Is the answer 56?

Or is it 32, I seem to remember something about BODMAS from my school days.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Is the answer 56?

No.

Here is a clue. Scrutinise the images in detail.

 

[daveboy]

To take your minds off Coronavirus

Answers to Mr B Shittpeas and don’t forget to include a postal order for 10 shillings please.

View attachment 34933

73.....extra broom on one line and extra magic wand on another, Bodmas rules.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Or is it 32, I seem to remember something about BODMAS from my school days.

No. Good try, BOSMAS is relevant, but look at he images in detail.

 

[flecc]

It‘s been falling apart for over a week. People think it’s job done, they are removing their parachutes mid descent because it‘s slowed their rate of fall. Guess what happens when you take your parachute off when you are still 5000’ above the ground?

They’ve been warned.

Lockdown has been a complete waste of time, it's just to demonstrate the politicians are taking some action. It's supposely to ensure social isolation, but there is no such thing, it's just a handy theory. We are several thousands of miles from China, as much separation as is possible on this planet, yet here we are with a worse infection than they have from the virus.

Because there is no such thing as effective social isolation in the world we've created.

In the almost certain outcome of having no effective vaccine against all the evolving strains of the virus, we'll eventually get to herd immunity anyway, so we might as well go straight to that without all the ruinous social and financial costs of Lockdown.

So what if the NHS get more overloaded in patients. We have no way of killing the virus, so those who are destined to survive will still survive, those with no chance will still die. Just make sure there's enough oxygen and morphine to help recovery and ease the dying.
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