Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldtom]

Not my assessment oldtom, the assessment of the CEO.

I do beg pardon 'shemozzle' but I seem to have misunderstood as I thought you were in agreement with the Brompton CEO's view.

Now, misunderstandings and failures to grasp the full picture may not matter one iota in online forums but if negotiations ever occur between the EU and the UK.....I inadvertently keyed the 'Y' next door to the 'U' there which amused me somewhat as it then read, 'YUK' which could well be how the EU leaders perceive us these days!

The prospect of top-level talks on the future of our relationship with 27 other sovereign nation states may sound rather grand and immensely important but has anyone got the slightest idea of what our representatives will have to say? I, for the life of me, cannot think of any opening gambit from our side to which the other side's response is likely to be anything other than a resounding 'No'....'Nein' or 'Non'. It strikes me that the 27 other states hold all the aces and even if the UK has a joker or two to play, whatever they might have is way beyond my ken.

Given the current incumbents of our probable line-up for the negotiating match, if it turns out to be a battle of wits, then we enter the fray only half-prepared. Presumably, the 3 'Brexiteers' will be backed by a team of civil servants with a little more understanding of such matters than they....although I'm not even sure that's the case. Actually, the more I think about it, the whole exercise seems increasingly pointless so a tactical withdrawal may be the best gambit allowing us to negotiate improvements of the EU aims and structures from within, alongside other states of similar disposition.

However, I am open to persuasion if anyone knows exactly how we can get a deal which might be equal to or better than our current position. Has anyone spotted a trump card anywhere that would allow us cause the EU any problem?

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

Yes:

At the moment, Article 50 allows an EU Member State to secede from the Union by giving two years notice to the relevant authorities.

However, as from March 31st 2017 – a date just nine months away next weekend – Article 50 will be subject to the dreaded Qualified Majority Vote (QMV)…that is to say, we will have to persuade a total of 14 EU Member States to support our decision to leave.

In addition, we now know following the collpase of Canada's attempt to reach a deal with the EU, we don't just have to get the agreement to any deal from the other 27 nations individally.

We also have to get that agreement from five additional independent political bodies, Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City and Wallonia, bringing the total to an impossible 32 individual negotiations.

It was tiny Wallonia within Belgium that wrecked the Canada deal after seven years of negotiation by refusing to sign.
.

The only way brexit will succeed after that is to promote farage to handle the affair.
I'll bet they would jump at the chance to get rid of him[emoji1]

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[trex]

I believe that Mrs May's plan for brexit goes as far as setting a deadline for triggering article 50 but nothing else beyond that. The EU will confirm pretty soon that to negotiate any deal industry by industry may only start after UK has left, there is no hope that anything will be concluded in time to stop American banks to decamp London for Paris and the Japanese would have done so even sooner. Before the deadline of March 2019, she'll know that parliament will vote down a plan that sees UK trading on WTO terms. Mrs May will have no choice than asking for a second referendum or general election in May or October 2018 to release her from brexit and call off article 50.

 

[Kudoscycles]

Yes:

At the moment, Article 50 allows an EU Member State to secede from the Union by giving two years notice to the relevant authorities.

However, as from March 31st 2017 – a date just five months away – Article 50 will be subject to the dreaded Qualified Majority Vote (QMV)…that is to say, we will have to persuade a total of 14 EU Member States to support our decision to leave.

In addition, we now know following the collapse of Canada's attempt to reach a deal with the EU, we don't just have to get the agreement to any deal from the other 27 nations individally.

We also have to get that agreement from five additional independent political bodies, Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City and Wallonia, bringing the total to an impossible 32 individual negotiations.

It was tiny Wallonia within Belgium that wrecked the Canada deal after seven years of negotiation by refusing to sign.
.

Wow.....that is not common knowledge....you can see the headline in the Sun,hehe.......THE POPE HAS TO GIVE US PERMISSION TO LEAVE THE EU.
No wonder May is trying to get it done before March 31,2017.
I wonder if the remainers in Parliament realise this critical deadline date?
It also explains why May is trying so hard in the courts to get the right to trigger it by royal prerogative,the court judge so far seems very remain biased and the Lords have already indicated that they are also remain biased.
Can we count 14 member states who would be keen for us to leave?
Note that Davis has said that the timescale may slip,he obviously realises that it won't happen by March 2017.
I still think we won't ever trigger it,there are just too many obstacles from too many directions. Maybe May has accepted that which is why she was happy to advise Nissan that they won't have to worry about EU tariffs.
So what is our PM up to?
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

We are told that we need more houses....there are currently 4000 flats in build or design in the area of Canary Wharf,Crossrail is our flagship investment to connect Canary Wharf,the City and Heathrow.
Yet look it at the viewpoint of the builders....May cannot make her mind up about expanding Heathrow and she is doing a good job of driving banks out
of both the City and Canary Wharf....would you be keen to put a shovel in the ground if you were a builder.
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

In addition, we now know following the collapse of Canada's attempt to reach a deal with the EU, we don't just have to get the agreement to any deal from the other 27 nations individally.

We also have to get that agreement from five additional independent political bodies, Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City and Wallonia, bringing the total to an impossible 32 individual negotiations.

It was tiny Wallonia within Belgium that wrecked the Canada deal after seven years of negotiation by refusing to sign.
.

The position worsens. I've learnt now that all five autonomous regions of Belgium have to agree to any deal.

This brings the total of political bodies needing to be negotiated with to 36, any one of which has the power of veto. Most sell us nothing or very little so couldn't care less whether we get a satisfactory deal or not.
.

 

[trex]

the IFS warns of £14 billion hole in corporation tax receipts this year, lowest receipts since 2009. Inflation is also a ticking time bomb. Oh dear...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/21/public-deficit-10-bn-corporation-tax-receipts-philip-hammond-shock-into-slugs

 

[Kudoscycles]

What I do find a contradiction is Turkey. They interviewed a number of EU ministers who were openly hostile to allowing Turkey into the EU,if we remember it was part of project fear by Farage that 12 million Turks would want to come to the UK,but Cameron said that there was no chance of Turkey joining the EU in 30 years.
I understand one of the aims of Leave is to reduce immigration but the only person I know who is openly supporting Turkey into the EU is Boris Johnson!!!!!
KudosDave

 

[anotherkiwi]

I understand one of the aims of Leave is to reduce immigration but the only person I know who is openly supporting Turkey into the EU is Boris Johnson!!!!!

He has a plan! I bet he thinks Turks would go to Germany not the UK because of the historical ties.

 

[Kudoscycles]

the IFS warns of £14 billion hole in corporation tax receipts this year, lowest receipts since 2009. Inflation is also a ticking time bomb. Oh dear...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/21/public-deficit-10-bn-corporation-tax-receipts-philip-hammond-shock-into-slugs

From my view the corporation tax payments are going to be 40% down in 2017,small companies pay this annually and retrospectively ,but big companies pay this 3 monthly. So the big company payments,probably the lions share,will start to be affected 3 months after Brexit vote,September will be on the cusp but October onwards will when the most effect will be revealed.
I am amazed that the Office for National Stistics don't know why,perhaps a 20% drop in the buying power of the pound may be a clue!!!!!
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

I understand one of the aims of Leave is to reduce immigration but the only person I know who is openly supporting Turkey into the EU is Boris Johnson!!!!!

Boris is a mongrel with both Turkish and Russian ancestry. His ancestors include Ali Kemal of Turkey and Hubert Freiherr von Pfeffel, grandson of Prince Paul of Wurtettemberg who was born in St. Petersburg, Russia.

He's very proud of these ancestries, reflected in his own full name of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson. His friends call him Al, not Boris.

It's therefore perhaps understandable that he would back those two countries in certain circumstances.
.

 

[trex]

The position worsens. I've learnt now that all five autonomous regions of Belgium have to agree to any deal.

This brings the total of political bodies needing to be negotiated with to 36, any one of which has the power of veto. Most sell us nothing or very little so couldn't care less whether we get a satisfactory deal or not.
.

the negotiation with the EU will be subject to QMV from March 2017, that is Mrs May will get her deal if 14 member countries agree.
The danger is she may get mostly her way, agreeing a transitional deal to give us time to set up our deals with the 53 countries that have FTAs with the EU at the moment and a permanent FTA with the EU. That will leave us with a stuation where the transitional agreement is better than leaving completely but still paying in and accepting all the 4 freedoms and have no say.

 

[Croxden]

He's very proud of these ancestries, reflected in his own full name of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson. His friends call him Al, not Boris.

He still has friends?
.

 

[flecc]

He still has friends?

Rich men always have friends.

They have no bother getting young glamorous wives too.
.

 

[Kudoscycles]

It appears the banks are starting to make plans to leave London,the smaller banks by Christmas ,the bigger ones in early 2017.
I didn't think they would react this early,I thought they would wait until the form of Brexit is more obvious.
This will be a disaster for our country,it will destroy our tax take.
Surely nobody voted for this....how will the tax take be replaced? Will benefits fall? Pensions fall?.....we are getting more like Greece!
KudosDave

 

[anotherkiwi]

While doing some research reading I discovered that you are one of the richest countries in the EU and yet you have one of the highest percentages of families living below the poverty line. That says a lot about the UK as a country. The poor Greeks have a climate that allows them to be self sufficient in vegetables all year round so I would say your poor are going to be worse off than the Greeks when the fecal matter hits the fan...

 

[oldgroaner]

Todays dose of Delusion from the Express
"
EU'S FINANCIAL SUICIDE: Scrapping UK free trade could SMASH bloc's £21BN exports cash cow"

You really have to wonder why some of the people who read this paper ever believe a word they say!
I'm sure it was a department of information offshoot from Orwell's 1984

 

[oldgroaner]

And something comical to cheer us up: you can always rely on Boris!

"Bitter Boris denounces rival Michael Gove as 'deeply Machiavellian and flawed' and claims the former justice secretary's henchman stole his phone to scupper his PM bid "

From the Daily Mail naturally.

 

[oldgroaner]

Something is changing, a critical of Brexit article in the Sunday Mail!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3863308/Tory-MP-ANNA-SOUBRY-gives-view-Brexit-negotiations.html
"'Pfff!': ANNA SOUBRY asks if that was the EU's splutter of contempt... or the sound of UK's Brexit economy tanking? "

WTF?

 

[shemozzle999]

I do beg pardon 'shemozzle' but I seem to have misunderstood as I thought you were in agreement with the Brompton CEO's view.
Tom

My factual posts were made merely to correct the assumed facts, the fictional portions of this Brompton sub string I have no interest in.