Brexit, for once some facts.

derf

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Aug 4, 2014
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What I expected from the reporter would have been this:

Will Butler-Adams, Brompton Bicycle CEO and Chair of the Vibrant Economy Commission, said:

“The purpose of this commission is not to dictate what a better UK looks like, but to ensure collaboration across the private, public and not-for-profit sectors of society.

“I’m confident that this commission will play a key role in stimulating ideas and activity that will help create a more vibrant economy – one that realises the shared potential of the UK. One in which growth is more sustainable, prosperity more widely shared, and people and communities are better able to realise their potential.”

The commission members have put their names to a public letter calling on representatives from the business and public sector worlds to join up with community representatives to help them understand how they can shape a more vibrant economy for the UK. The announcement follows research conducted by Grant Thornton and CEBR which found that untapping the potential of the UK’s economy could be worth up to £479bn by 2025.
Is that the same grant Thornton that was internationally villified for being at the heart of the Moldovan bank fraud scandal?
 

derf

Esteemed Pedelecer
Aug 4, 2014
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What I expected from the reporter would have been this:

Will Butler-Adams, Brompton Bicycle CEO and Chair of the Vibrant Economy Commission, said:

“The purpose of this commission is not to dictate what a better UK looks like, but to ensure collaboration across the private, public and not-for-profit sectors of society.

“I’m confident that this commission will play a key role in stimulating ideas and activity that will help create a more vibrant economy – one that realises the shared potential of the UK. One in which growth is more sustainable, prosperity more widely shared, and people and communities are better able to realise their potential.”

The commission members have put their names to a public letter calling on representatives from the business and public sector worlds to join up with community representatives to help them understand how they can shape a more vibrant economy for the UK. The announcement follows research conducted by Grant Thornton and CEBR which found that untapping the potential of the UK’s economy could be worth up to £479bn by 2025.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moldovan_bank_fraud_scandal
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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What I expected from the reporter would have been this:

Will Butler-Adams, Brompton Bicycle CEO and Chair of the Vibrant Economy Commission, said:

“The purpose of this commission is not to dictate what a better UK looks like, but to ensure collaboration across the private, public and not-for-profit sectors of society.

“I’m confident that this commission will play a key role in stimulating ideas and activity that will help create a more vibrant economy – one that realises the shared potential of the UK. One in which growth is more sustainable, prosperity more widely shared, and people and communities are better able to realise their potential.”

The commission members have put their names to a public letter calling on representatives from the business and public sector worlds to join up with community representatives to help them understand how they can shape a more vibrant economy for the UK. The announcement follows research conducted by Grant Thornton and CEBR which found that untapping the potential of the UK’s economy could be worth up to £479bn by 2025.
And you believe that fairy story? As soon as Adams finds a mainland Chinese factory he can trust he will revert to his original plan, as he would be stupid not to with the crude manufacturing process he has at present.
Bromptons will end up being manufactured in a modern Chinese factory on a massive scale at half the cost, just as he originally planned.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk
 
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anotherkiwi

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Jan 26, 2015
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The European Union
My two closest fuel stations in England are currently charging 120.9p per litre for diesel although within a 20 mile radius, it can still be had from supermarkets for 11p less. Inevitably, those prices will rise very soon.
That is a wee bit more than 80 p on the other side of the border... I thought you were a petrol producing nation?
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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What I expected from the reporter would have been this:

Will Butler-Adams, Brompton Bicycle CEO and Chair of the Vibrant Economy Commission, said:

“The purpose of this commission is not to dictate what a better UK looks like, but to ensure collaboration across the private, public and not-for-profit sectors of society.

“I’m confident that this commission will play a key role in stimulating ideas and activity that will help create a more vibrant economy – one that realises the shared potential of the UK. One in which growth is more sustainable, prosperity more widely shared, and people and communities are better able to realise their potential.”

The commission members have put their names to a public letter calling on representatives from the business and public sector worlds to join up with community representatives to help them understand how they can shape a more vibrant economy for the UK. The announcement follows research conducted by Grant Thornton and CEBR which found that untapping the potential of the UK’s economy could be worth up to £479bn by 2025.
Which leads one to ask the obvious Question.
What would a man that runs a company using last century (if that modern) manufacturing techniques (Including manual Brazing together of major parts) and despite having used outside technical consultants, despite years of work has so far failed to come up with an EBike.
And incidentally failed in the simple task that no one else seems to have managed of shifting his manufacturing to China.
Have even the slightest notion of the shape of the Future?
If that is the calibre of Experts you are relying on we are truly doomed.
 
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shemozzle999

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 28, 2009
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Which leads one to ask the obvious Question.
What would a man that runs a company using last century (if that modern) manufacturing techniques (Including manual Brazing together of major parts) and despite having used outside technical consultants, despite years of work has so far failed to come up with an EBike.
And incidentally failed in the simple task that no one else seems to have managed of shifting his manufacturing to China.
Have even the slightest notion of the shape of the Future?
If that is the calibre of Experts you are relying on we are truly doomed.
Maybe this will help answer your question - note WBA joined in 2002 after the experiment with overseas production:

https://www.gov.uk/government/case-studies/intellectual-property-brompton
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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Maybe this will help answer your question - note WBA joined in 2002 after the experiment with overseas production:

https://www.gov.uk/government/case-studies/intellectual-property-brompton
Very comical and an amusing way not to admit a bad mistake, as there is no way that Brompton can expand their production using present methods of manufacture to exploit a mass market is there?
Look at the obvious flaws in their approach, it is a present a cottage industry, and the words of this con artist cannot cover that up.
The only way they will ever become a volume producer on the scale needed to exploit the Chinese market.
The only way to do that is to move production to an automated factory, that is a simple and unavoidable conclusion.
You place far too much faith in words that make no sense whatever, he is defending an outdated industrial model and will go the way of any company that fails to automate.
Morgan Cars are an example of this hidebound refusal to accept the realities of modern industrial production.
Small Beer is all Brompton will ever be with him in charge.
The Chinese don't give a damn for "Intellectual Property" didn't you follow this link?
Here is an example of one of the current very near copies
http://www.bikerumor.com/2016/06/08/new-folding-styles-for-dahon-on-tiny-curl-faster-qix-d8/
What chance do you imagine Brompton have against a modern factory turning bikes like that out at half the Price?
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
I'm afraid I have to disagree with your assessment, 'shemozzle', of the Brompton position in the market and future prospects.

Their bikes have always been very much a niche product but they have never diversified in any meaningful way which leaves them badly placed to compete in a global market comprising the biggest bike manufacturers on the planet.

It's not sound business to put all your eggs in one basket but worse than that, there is an arrogance encapsulated in these few words from your link:

'Competitors cannot undercut us because they do not know how to make the bike.'

Sadly, there are distinct similarities between Brompton's marketing strategy and that of our motor car and motorcycle industries of the post-war era. I fear it will all end in tears.

Tom
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,197
30,602
Maybe this will help answer your question - note WBA joined in 2002 after the experiment with overseas production:

https://www.gov.uk/government/case-studies/intellectual-property-brompton
I don't think it matters what Brompton do, it's an irrelevance. The scale of its business is too small to ever begin to meet our needs and always will be with their current policies.

We live on imports and continue to fail to export anything like enough to pay for them, so continue to get deeper and deeper in debt. It's a problem which simply has to be solved, we cannot go on in this way.

That means one of the following two actions:

Delay the eventual inevitable disaster by reducing our living standards so we end up importing less, a policy the conservative governments of the last two terms have been following. Then design and mass produce product that the world will buy at the more competitive prices a low standard of living permits.

Alternatively try to match or better Germany and Switzerland at their own game of mass producing highly desirable products that the world will pay premium prices for. Given our very poor record since the 1960s, that seems an impossibly tough call.

What is certain is that our successful small scale businesses from old tech Brompton to high tech satellite design and manufacture can't support us. Their scale of earnings is hopelessly inadequate for our needs.
.
 
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derf

Esteemed Pedelecer
Aug 4, 2014
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I don't think it matters what Brompton do, it's an irrelevance. The scale of its business is too small to ever begin to meet our needs and always will be with their current policies.

We live on imports and continue to fail to export anything like enough to pay for them, so continue to get deeper and deeper in debt. It's a problem which simply has to be solved, we cannot go on in this way.

That means one of the following two actions:

Delay the eventual inevitable disaster by reducing our living standards so we end up importing less, a policy the conservative governments of the last two terms have been following. Then design and mass produce product that the world will buy at the more competitive prices a low standard of living permits.

Alternatively try to match or better Germany and Switzerland at their own game of mass producing highly desirable products that the world will pay premium prices for. Given our very poor record since the 1960s, that seems an impossibly tough call.

What is certain is that our successful small scale businesses from old tech Brompton to high tech satellite design and manufacture can't support us. Their scale of earnings is hopelessly inadequate for our needs.
.
very true, a disturbing phenomenon is that - as the pound devalues and living standards reduce the electorate instead of coming to their senses begins to resemble and behave increasingly like that in Germany in the 1930's. The level of intolerance, bigotry, projection of all ills into "foreigners", once the pound loses a further third of its value doesn't bear thinking about.
 
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trex

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May 15, 2011
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I think the electorate is slowly coming to support a reasonable compromise. Gone is the idea that the EU have to give us a good deal because Germany sell one in five of their cars to us. Most of if not all the foul language is confined to UKIP supporters. In two year time, if faced with a choice of hard brexit or no brexit, the UK may vote to remain.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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In two year time, if faced with a choice of hard brexit or no brexit, the UK may vote to remain.
That's especially true now that there's general agreement in the EU that negotiating a deal for the UK will take far longer than two years.*

With several years to rethink what we are doing, a complete change of mind is very likely

* Anyone who doubts that should take note of Canada's words after their attempt to reach a deal collapsed after seven years of negotiating. They said it is "impossible to reach a deal with the EU", after tiny Wallonia, a small part of Belgium refused to accept te deal agreed by the larger countries, thus defeating it.
.
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
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I think that selecting Brompton as an example of post Brexit trading conditions made us focus on that manufacturer rather than looking at the bigger picture.
If the Brompton was made in China,the bending of the frame would be performed on NC benders,the frame would be ally,welded using robotics,the paint plant would be next door not 100 miles away and the assembly line would be labour at £2.50 per hour,not minimum wage at £9.00 per hour. Brompton needs that 68% anti dumping duty protection to survive.
I think the fold of the Brompton is very good, but the design and tolerance control does not lend itself to volume production.
When I go to the Shanghai cycle show I look at the Dahon stand,I must say their bikes are very attractive but the 68% tariff kills off my interest,take that tariff away I would be there doing deals. I remember Artstu having a lovely Dahon folder at our Derbyshire road show.
We have lots of companies like Brompton in the UK....Morgan Cars.Pashley bikes,Caterham cars,Mulberry handbags,Harris Tweed,Triumph motorcycles.....but when these try to expand their volumes,they have to move to Asia (Dyson),as flecc has said they are not large enough to support our GDP needs,I cannot see how divorcing ourselves from the EU is going to help...however,there seems to be an increasing number,both from the EU and the U.K. ,that Brexit won't happen....even May and Davis are already back peddling on the Article 50 timescale....didn't I read somewhere that after April 2017 there are internal changes in the EU that will make triggering Article 50 more difficult?????
KudosDave
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
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I think the electorate is slowly coming to support a reasonable compromise. Gone is the idea that the EU have to give us a good deal because Germany sell one in five of their cars to us. Most of if not all the foul language is confined to UKIP supporters. In two year time, if faced with a choice of hard brexit or no brexit, the UK may vote to remain.
Absolutely agree,before parliament (note not May) will decide to trigger Article 50 we are going to have to have a good deal out of the EU. The EU seems to be determined to not give us a good deal,in fact I think they want us to stay (not because they want us, but us leaving will disrupt the EU) so they will raise every obstacle to making a deal such that parliament will not ever be in a position to trigger Article 50.
Look at the deal with Canada,7 years and still no deal.
I can see that we will have another General Election in 2020 and we will still be talking and no Article 50 triggered. It's not that we will have decided against Brexit we just won't have made any decision,we have a PM who is an indecisive (Gatwick or Heathrow) control freak who will keep putting off triggering Article 50.
Such indecision will be awful for our country but we have put ourselves in this position.
KudosDave
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,197
30,602
didn't I read somewhere that after April 2017 there are internal changes in the EU that will make triggering Article 50 more difficult?????
Yes:

At the moment, Article 50 allows an EU Member State to secede from the Union by giving two years notice to the relevant authorities.

However, as from March 31st 2017 – a date just five months away – Article 50 will be subject to the dreaded Qualified Majority Vote (QMV)…that is to say, we will have to persuade a total of 14 EU Member States to support our decision to leave.

In addition, we now know following the collapse of Canada's attempt to reach a deal with the EU, we don't just have to get the agreement to any deal from the other 27 nations individally.

We also have to get that agreement from five additional independent political bodies, Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City and Wallonia, bringing the total to an impossible 32 individual negotiations.

It was tiny Wallonia within Belgium that wrecked the Canada deal after seven years of negotiation by refusing to sign.
.
 
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