Brexit, for once some facts.

shemozzle999

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Ok some Leavers say we don't know what will happen until we leave,but we can predict some outcomes based upon the info government is telling us.
Take the small bicycle manufacturer Brompton,a business that I am sure many of us are proud of,if I was the MD of Brompton I would be worried...
The current situation is that Brompton buys product from various countries but,I am sure,is careful to ensure enough manufacturing and assembling cost for it to be deemed an EU made product and thus enjoy low import tariff duty on the parts it has to import. It can sell to all the 27 EU countries tariff free and use the trade deals that the EU have negotiated with 52 non EU countries,it is a strong export company that is protected by the EU against 'dumping' from Asian suppliers (China).
Under the deal that Davis and Fox propose we are going to have a free trade deal with China and hard Brexit with the EU. If that happens then the anti-dumping tariff of 68% from China to the UK will be eliminated....Brompton will have to fight against volume/low cost suppliers such as Dahon,who can produce at much lower cost than Brompton,it would be a David and Goliath struggle.
The U.K. home market will be very competitive,a nice folder maybe less than £150.00, good for consumers not good for a UK bike manufacturer.
If we go for hard Brexit,May and Davis preferred option,the EU would treat the UK as a satellite of China,bikes shipped from the UK to EU would be subject to 68% anti dumping duty. If one of the German bike suppliers were to build Brompton style folders in Germany then Brompton would struggle to compete. Also Brompton would need the UK negotiators to achieve trade deals with the countries that are currently trade deal connected by the EU.
I think Brompton would have no choice but to set up an assembly plant in Europe.
But the likes of Fox and Davis are not businessmen ,I am concerned they don't understand the result of free trade with China and hard Brexit with the EU.
KudosDave
What WBA advises:

December2015
http://www.businesszone.co.uk/deep-dive/growth/brompton-bikes-ceos-advice-on-how-you-can-start-exporting

Last Month
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/sme-home/brompton-bikes-boss-says-export-to-success/
 

anotherkiwi

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oldgroaner

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Oh Dear! you have picked a wrong 'un there, haven't you?
Brompton have had a bloody nose in China (Taiwan) from licensing the bikes to be made there only to find cheap copies appearing all over the place and getting involved in law suits.
" In the early 1990s Brompton licensed its designs to Euro-Tai of Taiwan, and a joint venture company - Neobike - was formed to manufacture the bikes and distribute them in Asia. Former executives from folding bike maker Dahon joined Neobike, but quality control and counterfeiting issues eventually led to court cases, convictions and prison sentences. Fake Brompton bikes can be found on Chinese e-tailers, although they are not labelled as Bromptons (bizarrely, sometimes they are labelled as Stridas.)
Brompton have already demonstrated that they prefer to make the bikes in China, but couldn't negotiate with a trustworthy maker.
The moment they do find one that will be the end of manufacturing here.
Try again but find something more convincing!
Here is an example of one of the current very near copies
http://www.bikerumor.com/2016/06/08/new-folding-styles-for-dahon-on-tiny-curl-faster-qix-d8/
 
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anotherkiwi

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“Before they were in, and they had many opt-outs. Now they want to be out, with many opt-ins.”

Can I smell burnt rosbif?*

*rosbif being a gentler kind of French mocking term for the English
 
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derf

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does bear an uncanny resemblance to what some brexiters say on the thread (remainers' "negativity" is causing all the trouble). where do these cretins come from? if there is 17 million more like these, I'm afraid there's no hope. I'm not sure a devalued pound can challenge that level of stupidity.
 
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trex

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Same night after Hartlepool's QT, we've had the result of the Witney by-election (Cameron's old seat), tories share of vote went form 60% to 45%, LibDems 30%, UKIP 3.5%.
If that result is reflected in the next general election, the tories are going to lose big time. A large chunk of tory remainers are moving to LibDems, tory brexiters to Labour. Ukip at 3.5% - that's about the right level for them. Brexit will be reversed.
 

Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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Same night after Hartlepool's QT, we've had the result of the Witney by-election (Cameron's old seat), tories share of vote went form 60% to 45%, LibDems 30%, UKIP 3.5%.
If that result is reflected in the next general election, the tories are going to lose big time. A large chunk of tory remainers are moving to LibDems, tory brexiters to Labour. Ukip at 3.5% - that's about the right level for them. Brexit will be reversed.
Thats not because they want the Lib Dems back,its a protest vote against hard Brexit....'the people have spoken!!!!!'
I also watched Question Time,anyone who spoke in any way about the terms of Brexit was shouted down....its become something of a addiction in Brexiters minds that nobody must discuss anything negative about Brexit.
Some guy on there said that the press are unfair and hostile to Brexit,has he not opened a Murdoch paper?
I think the Greek guy spoke a lot of sense but that loud mouthed UKIP woman kept shouting him down. Ken Clarke admitted he was anti Brexit but accepted the vote,but surprised that Brexiters were not concerned about how poor it is going to make them,Hartlepool was a strong Brexit protest vote area. I felt sorry for the brave Polish lady,been in the UK for 23 years,married to a Brit,but now feeling not welcome here.
Price rises are coming in thick and fast at the moment,the average seems to be 20% but I have just had one at 63%,just wonder what this is going to do to inflation in 2017?
Theresa May is about as popular as a pin in a condom factory in Brussels,I wonder if us Brits will still be welcome when travelling in Europe,I am finding I am having to apologise for the stupidity and xenophobia of some in the UK now,we really are appearing as not very nice people to foreigners.
KudosDave
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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I have never watched an angrier QT audience than last night's QT at Hartlepool.
An audience largely composed of idiots. They claim to have studied the subject thoroughly before voting but all they conclude is that we need to be positive.

I don't think a plateful of positivity will satisfy me when I'm hungry and I doubt positivity has value as an export.

The idiots will learn and start squealing in due course, some of them are already verging of doing that, hence the political party switching. It might not be too long before the Brexiters will be reduced to the racists and those fanatical about sovereignty, whatever that might mean.
.
 

oldgroaner

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The insanity over alleged profiteering continues in the Daily Mail
"
Have a break, have a Brexit! Swiss firm Nestle threatens to raise the price of a Kit Kat and other family favourites because the plunging pound is hitting profits
  • Nestle has said it may raise price of its products because of falling pound
  • Products which would be affected include Kit Kat and Shredded Wheat
  • Comes week after Unilever became embroiled in public spat with Tesco over price rises and weak pound which became known as 'Marmitegate'
How long are the going to keep up this idiotic campaign? are they really so dense that they imagine that the falling pound doesn't inevitably causes price rises?
Perhaps I was wrong in my assumption that Brexit voters were not stupid, simply misguided when you get comments like these.
"How can they blame it on Brexit when. thanks to May's dithering. we haven't even left it yet."
"How awful that Nestles will have a dip in their sky high profits, every confectionery shop should have a collecting box for them."
And a rather classic bit from the rag itself
"
Unilever withdrew blanket price rises following threats of a boycott by shoppers.

The Anglo-Dutch consumer goods manufacturer retreated amid widespread outrage after it blamed Brexit for a 10 per cent price rises on dozens of brands.

It was a humiliating climbdown for the firm, whose share price lost £3bn in the furore."
Actually there is no proof whatever that they did!
And the Mail will soon tire of the thousands of price rises that are in the pipeline.
 
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flecc

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Unilever withdrew blanket price rises following threats of a boycott by shoppers.

The Anglo-Dutch consumer goods manufacturer retreated amid widespread outrage after it blamed Brexit for a 10 per cent price rises on dozens of brands.

It was a humiliating climbdown for the firm, whose share price lost £3bn in the furore."
Actually there is no proof whatever that they did!
I'm absolutely certain that it was Tesco that had to climb down on this issue since Unilever had them over a barrel. Tesco were bluffing, they knew they could not manage without Unilever's products without brand concious shoppers moving in droves to rivals for their favourite products, and Unilever knew that too.

Those who don't care about brands have often already left Tesco and gone to Lidl and Aldi, leaving Tesco now much more vulnerable to top brand name suppliers like Unilever.
.
 

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
And the Mail will soon tire of the thousands of price rises that are in the pipeline.
Already, I believe people are becoming a little jittery as prices of quite a few things have crept up recently and now that fuel prices are clearly increasing, that will impact on everybody, whether they be motorists or not.

Of course, there will be some who will continue to actually hand over money regardless in order to absorb the latest tory propaganda from the likes of the Daily Fail, torygraph, Times, etc. I guess there are some who are so inured to being lied to so much that they really don't mind actually paying for that 'privilege'.

My two closest fuel stations in England are currently charging 120.9p per litre for diesel although within a 20 mile radius, it can still be had from supermarkets for 11p less. Inevitably, those prices will rise very soon.

Nissan are keeping their powder dry for now but there is definitely a strong suggestion from their current posturing that they may well pull the plug on their Sunderland operation next year. That part of the country voted pretty heavily for 'Brexit' so I wonder how 8,000 more out of work will rest with the mackems, should the plant closure actually occur?

Apparently, my attitude is viewed by the 'Brexidiots' as negativity......okay, I can see where they are coming from but I take some comfort from the fact that negativity is distinctly different from stupidity!

So, let's see; 120 days after the referendum and we are gradually but inexorably becoming poorer and the prospect of a post-'Brexit' utopia is beginning to look like an incredibly painful dystopia, only requiring enactment of the Article 50 provision to firm up our journey towards economic and political isolationism a couple of years further down the road.

In my view, unless HM government pulls back from the brink, this country is doomed for generations to come and any further schism within the EU, resulting from Britain's unwillingness to commit fully and play a role in the greatest international, democratic alliance ever conceived, could prove to be a catalyst for yet another war between European states.

Tom
 
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oldgroaner

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I'm absolutely certain that it was Tesco that had to climb down on this issue since Unilever had them over a barrel. Tesco were bluffing, they knew they could not manage without Unilever's products without brand concious shoppers moving in droves to rivals for their favourite products, and Unilever knew that too.

Those who don't care about brands have often already left Tesco and gone to Lidl and Aldi, leaving Tesco now much more vulnerable to top brand name suppliers like Unilever.
.
Well, you wouldn't expect a little thing like the truth prevent the Mail from presenting a bit of blatant propaganda, now would you?
Silly idea, quite out of the question.
 
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oldgroaner

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Ah well, the only thing left to do is laugh, and take a philosophical view of the situation, summed up by the late great Les Dawson
"Confident in the Future?
I feel as confident as a Turkey sitting on a pile of boxes of Paxo
Listening to Christmas Carols."
Style of thing.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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Already, I believe people are becoming a little jittery as prices of quite a few things have crept up recently and now that fuel prices are clearly increasing, that will impact on everybody, whether they be motorists or not.

Of course, there will be some who will continue to actually hand over money regardless in order to absorb the latest tory propaganda from the likes of the Daily Fail, torygraph, Times, etc. I guess there are some who are so inured to being lied to so much that they really don't mind actually paying for that 'privilege'.

My two closest fuel stations in England are currently charging 120.9p per litre for diesel although within a 20 mile radius, it can still be had from supermarkets for 11p less. Inevitably, those prices will rise very soon.

Nissan are keeping their powder dry for now but there is definitely a strong suggestion from their current posturing that they may well pull the plug on their Sunderland operation next year. That part of the country voted pretty heavily for 'Brexit' so I wonder how 8,000 more out of work will rest with the mackems, should the plant closure actually occur?

Apparently, my attitude is viewed by the 'Brexidiots' as negativity......okay, I can see where they are coming from but I take some comfort from the fact that negativity is distinctly different from stupidity!

So, let's see; 120 days after the referendum and we are gradually but inexorably becoming poorer and the prospect of a post-'Brexit' utopia is beginning to look like an incredibly painful dystopia, only requiring enactment of the Article 50 provision to firm up our journey towards economic and political isolationism a couple of years further down the road.

In my view, unless HM government pulls back from the brink, this country is doomed for generations to come and any further schism within the EU, resulting from Britain's unwillingness to commit fully and play a role in the greatest international, democratic alliance ever conceived, could prove to be a catalyst for yet another war between European states.

Tom
And you forgot to mention the internal increases in crime, racism,poverty and malaise that will strike the population here too.
 

trex

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May 15, 2011
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An audience largely composed of idiots.
.
the audience at Hartlepool seemed not to understand that the EU does not have to give us a deal. They have time, size, means and unity on their side while we have to deal with a huge trade deficit that just gets worse as the brexit cliff gets nearer.
 
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shemozzle999

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Sep 28, 2009
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You might be interested in this too
"
Brompton bicycles boss concerned over Brexit immigration plans"
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/brompton-bicycles-boss-concerned-over-brexit-immigration-plans-35127536.html

Not quite what you expected is it?
What I expected from the reporter would have been this:

Will Butler-Adams, Brompton Bicycle CEO and Chair of the Vibrant Economy Commission, said:

“The purpose of this commission is not to dictate what a better UK looks like, but to ensure collaboration across the private, public and not-for-profit sectors of society.

“I’m confident that this commission will play a key role in stimulating ideas and activity that will help create a more vibrant economy – one that realises the shared potential of the UK. One in which growth is more sustainable, prosperity more widely shared, and people and communities are better able to realise their potential.”

The commission members have put their names to a public letter calling on representatives from the business and public sector worlds to join up with community representatives to help them understand how they can shape a more vibrant economy for the UK. The announcement follows research conducted by Grant Thornton and CEBR which found that untapping the potential of the UK’s economy could be worth up to £479bn by 2025.
 

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