Brexit, for once some facts.

[Kudoscycles]

It's becoming obvious that May is an indecisive control freak. Not a good combination, she wants to micro manage but not make any of the big decisions,Gatwick or Heathrow being a prime example.
Gordon Brown was similar,will she outlast his time in office?
KudosDave

 

[trex]

could Mrs May play a brilliant poker game?

This sounds plausible to me.


David A Welch, writing for the Canadian Globe and Mail, said the arrangements for negotiating an exit from the EU were “a bit like being told to plunk down $50,000 without knowing which car you are buying.”

He asked: “Who in their right mind would do it?”

Mr Welch added: “If Ms May is preparing the groundwork to stay, she is doing it brilliantly. By stretching out the timetable as far as possible without raising anyone’s suspicions, she has given ample time to let Brexit buyer’s remorse gel...

“Meanwhile, Ms May has set up key Tory Brexit supporters to fail by giving them thankless cabinet assignments... As time passes, it will become increasingly clear that none can hope to deliver what they promised the voters in June.

“Don’t be surprised in March if, instead of triggering Article 50, Ms May calls a snap election asking for a mandate to be released from her Brexit obligation.”

 

[Kudoscycles]

could Mrs May play a brilliant poker game?

This sounds plausible to me.


David A Welch, writing for the Canadian Globe and Mail, said the arrangements for negotiating an exit from the EU were “a bit like being told to plunk down $50,000 without knowing which car you are buying.”

He asked: “Who in their right mind would do it?”

Mr Welch added: “If Ms May is preparing the groundwork to stay, she is doing it brilliantly. By stretching out the timetable as far as possible without raising anyone’s suspicions, she has given ample time to let Brexit buyer’s remorse gel...

“Meanwhile, Ms May has set up key Tory Brexit supporters to fail by giving them thankless cabinet assignments... As time passes, it will become increasingly clear that none can hope to deliver what they promised the voters in June.

“Don’t be surprised in March if, instead of triggering Article 50, Ms May calls a snap election asking for a mandate to be released from her Brexit obligation.”

I don't think she is that clever.
Hammond openly rebeled against her today,he did not exclude staying in the single market and thought students should not be counted as immigrants,this is contra to May's proposals.
He also exposed Boris to scrutiny about the £350 million,quote 'others need to talk about that' . Boris hasn't been pushed on what happened to that pledge.
Hilary Benn's appointment as chair of the parliament select committee on Brexit is another problem for May. Hilary Benn(Remainer)beat Kate Hoey(Leaver)by 330 votes to 209 votes. This is an interesting vote,we now know what the vote would be if say parliament voted on triggering Article 50 or leaving the single market,no wonder May is desperate to keep votes away from parliament.
She has now admitted that the Brexit timescale may have to be extended,why? Is the lady losing her bottle?
Couple of weeks ago I thought that we were leaving the EU but within the single market but the mood of the country is changing and May's team are so split that I now think we won't leave at all,May will be rid of and we will scrap this whole stupid experiment.
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

I am confident of the future going something like this.
Article 50 will be invoked, and the EU will take the two years to unhitch whatever it has going for it in this country while we are still paying in.
At the end of that time we will simply be out on our ear, as this parliamentary set of goons couldn't rescue a struggling bluebottle from a bowl of soup.
The results will be catastrophic for the public, but a happy hunting ground for the rich.
Five years on a very subdued UK (or what remains of it) will go cap in hand and ask to rejoin the EU on whatever terms they care to give us, only to find that they refuse as we have nothing to offer.
Pretty much History repeating itself, as it took three attempts to join the common market when we began.
All because of ignorance and lies.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I am confident of the future going something like this.
Article 50 will be invoked, and the EU will take the two years to unhitch whatever it has going for it in this country while we are still paying in.
At the end of that time we will simply be out on our ear, as this parliamentary set of goons couldn't rescue a struggling bluebottle from a bowl of soup.
The results will be catastrophic for the public, but a happy hunting ground for the rich.
Five years on a very subdued UK (or what remains of it) will go cap in hand and ask to rejoin the EU on whatever terms they care to give us, only to find that they refuse as we have nothing to offer.
Pretty much History repeating itself, as it took three attempts to join the common market when we began.
All because of ignorance and lies.

On this we don't agree. Its looking like only parliament can trigger Brexit,May will lose the ability to trigger it under Royal Prerogative.
The content of what Brexit will look like will be decided by the recently formed parliament Select Committee assisted by Hammond,not sure that May can live with losing control but she will have to live with that or resign.
Because of the involvement of the Select Committee the triggering of Article 50 will be delayed,the Scots and N.I. will have more involvement in that process.
It's obvious that parliament and Hammond want to retain the single market but the EU have told us that we cannot cherry pick,it's either in or out. At that point in the negotiations parliament may advise that we should forget the whole Brexit experiment,stating that no satisfactory deal can be achieved to satisfy both EU and UK,don't forget the referendum was only advisory not legally binding.
May will resign and the Tories will have another leadership election maybe also a new GE with a new manifesto to encompass the needs of the poorer
regions of our country,the poor will be in real problems at that time and keen to achieve something out of their protest vote,there will be social stress about being ignored.
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

On this we don't agree. Its looking like only parliament can trigger Brexit,May will lose the ability to trigger it under Royal Prerogative.
The content of what Brexit will look like will be decided by the recently formed parliament Select Committee assisted by Hammond,not sure that May can live with losing control but she will have to live with that or resign.
Because of the involvement of the Select Committee the triggering of Article 50 will be delayed,the Scots and N.I. will have more involvement in that process.
It's obvious that parliament and Hammond want to retain the single market but the EU have told us that we cannot cherry pick,it's either in or out. At that point in the negotiations parliament may advise that we should forget the whole Brexit experiment,stating that no satisfactory deal can be achieved to satisfy both EU and UK,don't forget the referendum was only advisory not legally binding.
May will resign and the Tories will have another leadership election maybe also a new GE with a new manifesto to encompass the needs of the poorer
regions of our country,the poor will be in real problems at that time and keen to achieve something out of their protest vote,there will be social stress about being ignored.
KudosDave

Make no mistake, I would really love to agree with every word!
Alas my faith in the Westminster Goon show isn't up to making such a huge leap of Faith.
Nevertheless I fervently hope I'm wrong!
Keep believing, for it seems at times that neither logic or common sense applies in this country, merely the laws of chance.
And the dice have been heavily loaded.

 

[derf]

I am confident of the future going something like this.
Article 50 will be invoked, and the EU will take the two years to unhitch whatever it has going for it in this country while we are still paying in.
At the end of that time we will simply be out on our ear, as this parliamentary set of goons couldn't rescue a struggling bluebottle from a bowl of soup.
The results will be catastrophic for the public, but a happy hunting ground for the rich.
Five years on a very subdued UK (or what remains of it) will go cap in hand and ask to rejoin the EU on whatever terms they care to give us, only to find that they refuse as we have nothing to offer.
Pretty much History repeating itself, as it took three attempts to join the common market when we began.
All because of ignorance and lies.

it's a bit like stumbling into parallel world. was listening to Bruce Springsteen interview in which he explains trump,rather well,as con man exploiting disgruntled feelings of those left behind by deindustrialisation, globalisation. I get that intellectually, and that brexit is a product of the same. but don't get it emotionally. how did we get here? back in the uk reality consisted of educated souls living mostly meaningful lives or trying to, whether part time baristas studying or builders spending money putting offspring in through uni in Europe. Neanderthals making a comeback would be less surprising.

 

[oldgroaner]

it's a bit like stumbling into parallel world. was listening to Bruce Springsteen interview in which he explains trump,rather well,as con man exploiting disgruntled feelings of those left behind by deindustrialisation, globalisation. I get that intellectually, and that brexit is a product of the same. but don't get it emotionally. how did we get here? back in the uk reality consisted of educated souls living mostly meaningful lives or trying to, whether part time baristas studying or builders spending money putting offspring in through uni in Europe. Neanderthals making a comeback would be less surprising.

I would like to commend your admirable restraint in omitting the words
"but they did" at the end of your last post
(And then headed for cover at the first opportunity)

 

[gray198]

Sounds like Trump has been listening to the Brexit remainers, intimating that if he doesn't like the result of the election he may not accept it. Is this the way western democracies are going. ??? Don't get the result you want!!! Just ignore it and try again until you do. That's a tactic the EU have used before I believe

 

[trex]

but victories in politics are rarely if ever permanent.
Have you not seen that the brexiteers have less and less to say?

 

[oldgroaner]

Sounds like Trump has been listening to the Brexit remainers, intimating that if he doesn't like the result of the election he may not accept it. Is this the way western democracies are going. ??? Don't get the result you want!!! Just ignore it and try again until you do. That's a tactic the EU have used before I believe

So if a decision is made that is clearly not in the interests of the Public, are you suggestion that come hell and high water a decision made on a whim cannot be changed?
What kind of idiocy is that?
There was nothing Holy and sacred about the decision reached in the Advisory only referendum, have you forgotten that the people who sponsored it were proposing there should be another if the result to remain was too close?
Remember this?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
"
Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be “unfinished business” and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

Remind me again, what was your point?
That was your Fuhrer's own words.

 

[trex]

Mrs May has subtly changed her language, it's now 'brexit must be honoured'.

Like gambling debts perhaps?

 

[Kudoscycles]

Sounds like Trump has been listening to the Brexit remainers, intimating that if he doesn't like the result of the election he may not accept it. Is this the way western democracies are going. ??? Don't get the result you want!!! Just ignore it and try again until you do. That's a tactic the EU have used before I believe

Trump is a protest vote against the US establishment,our referendum was intended to be a vote about our membership of the EU but it was hijacked by some as a protest vote highlighting that they were ignored by the UK establishment.
Therein is a big problem, those who took the opportunity as a protest vote will not be satisfied by any outcome....they thought it would improve their lifestyle,it looks like the cost increases will be negative not positive.
Many old people believed Boris's pledge that the red bus £350 million would be spent on the NHS,that is clearly not going to happen,Boris seems to have ignored that now,
Many voted for control of immigration,all the special visas that Hammond is promising to the researchers,banks,farmers etc add up to almost the total they say they are going to control.
They say we are going to be a free trade country and do trade deals with the rest of the world,but what are we going to sell them,in contrast they have loads they can sell to us,which will make our trade imbalance even worse. If we have a free trade deal with China the EU will immediately put all those tariffs between the UK and the EU.
What is obvious from the foregoing we already have a fantastic deal with the EU,any deal we achieve is going to be worse than we already have.
It appears to me that the only person who is really keen on Brexit is Theresa May and parliament is learning how to control her,she won't get hard Brexit.
KudosDave

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

but victories in politics are rarely if ever permanent.
Have you not seen that the brexiteers have less and less to say?

which is kind of the point of politics, nothing is permanent.

Interesting article in the telegraph on this very point:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/19/why-its-time-for-a-new-campaign-for-brexit/

 

[oldgroaner]

Mrs May has subtly changed her language, it's now 'brexit must be honoured'.

Like gambling debts perhaps?

Perhaps we could have a whip round to erect a memorial?

 

[oldgroaner]

which is kind of the point of politics, nothing is permanent.

Interesting article in the telegraph on this very point:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/19/why-its-time-for-a-new-campaign-for-brexit/

You have to wonder what there is for them to campaign about? have they concluded finally that things are going wrong and seek to stifle any bad news?
This harping on about "The will of the people" is utter Fantasy.
What about the will of the Majority of the people who didn't vote for this shambles?
The real question is what is in it for these Brexit Fans? where is the monetary reward coming from they clearly expect, and how far will they endanger the country to get it?

 

[oldgroaner]

"
Boris Johnson loses trusted adviser after Downing Street fails to approve his job application
Will Walden had been at the former London Mayor’s side for several years"

I shudder to thing what he will do without the Ventriloquist being present.
Probably something like the Emu without Rod Hull!
Shame he came to a sticky end
He would have been perfect for that job!

 

[oldtom]

Interesting article in the telegraph on this very point:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/19/why-its-time-for-a-new-campaign-for-brexit/

I'm surprised you find anything in the torygraph worthy of the adjective, 'interesting'. It has always been one of the major purveyors of tory central office propaganda and remains so today. In this particular case, we have the 36 year-old Allister Heath, deputy director of content, re-iterating the message delivered by tory spin-doctors.

Heath is a 30-something, dyed-in-the-wool, tory supporter, born and raised in France, who got a degree in economics at the LSE.....I'm not sure anyone has ever failed to do that there!.......and after a bit of post-grad work at Oxford, found himself a place on the greasy pole churning out tory lies for several well-known tory organs before arriving at the torygraph a couple of years ago. His masters for the moment are the billionaire Barclay brothers, knighted tax exiles who once claimed they they live abroad for health reasons!

Heath is about as even-handed in his political and economic news reporting as the BBC's Nick Robinson and Laura KuenSSberg so I'm afraid I really have a difficulty believing anything that man has to say on any subject. He is owned!

Tom

 

[gray198]

but victories in politics are rarely if ever permanent.
Have you not seen that the brexiteers have less and less to say?

Agree TRex, but I think the denying remainers are creating enough

So if a decision is made that is clearly not in the interests of the Public, are you suggestion that come hell and high water a decision made on a whim cannot be changed?
What kind of idiocy is that?
There was nothing Holy and sacred about the decision reached in the Advisory only referendum, have you forgotten that the people who sponsored it were proposing there should be another if the result to remain was too close?
Remember this?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
"
Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be “unfinished business” and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

Remind me again, what was your point?
That was your Fuhrer's own words.

Who said it was a whim. It's been long overdue. You seem to take the view that 17 plus million people should not have a view if it does not concur with yours. Very arrogant. Nobody can be right but me. You lost. Now live with it

 

[derf]

Agree TRex, but I think the denying remainers are creating enough

Who said it was a whim. It's been long overdue. You seem to take the view that 17 plus million people should not have a view if it does not concur with yours. Very arrogant. Nobody can be right but me. You lost. Now live with it

that's a popular brexit refrain ("you lost live with it"). no offence, but in reality you lost, and you will live with it (regardless of what I or anyone else say). have a look at what's happening to the UK economy. On another level, I cant help recognising how central spite and anger is to brexit sentiments. it's truly the most cut of ones nose to spite ones face incident I've witnessed in my life.