Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

driverless cars are real enough.
Billions are still being invested into this technology every year.

As drug companies do too. They can't even achieve 5% success.

Sure, driverless cars are real, I even have one if I select the function. But the circumstances where I can totally depend on it are so limited I don't bother with it.

Driving a good purpose designed e-car like mine is so effortless and enjoyable compared to an i.c car that there's no point.

In recent years I've only driven up to 1000 miles year, but in just ten months my e-car has over 3600 miles on the clock, showing just how much I enjoy driving it. There is no way I would let the car do it for me, removing the pleasure and replacing it with boredom.

Here's an e-bike comparison. I enjoyed riding my much modified small wheel e-bike, but to harshly test a prototype battery for a manufacturer I rode it for some 3500 miles in six months, largely without pedalling to make the battery do the work. It was the most boring six months of cycling I've ever had. Letting the car do the driving is the same, I tried it for a run on the M25 and was even more bored than is usual with motorway driving. I returned driving it, much more enjoyable.

Once you factor in people, you see how limited automated cars will be. Short taxi runs yes, but replacing our present cars, no, not in the foreseeable future.
.

 

[flecc]

if you follow that line, it explains why you can't see my point. Your e-car does not need recharging every day. Imagine you rent out your battery to your neighbours, buying electricity when it's cheap and sell it back to them in day time, you could make a couple of £ each day.
If you share a self driving car, each car can serve on average maybe 5-7 people, driving 50-70 miles a day. Your Leaf has an autonomy of about 150 miles, enough for a couple of days.

I know all this, I posted it first in here long ago, as I did several other points you've previously made. So I fully understand what you are saying but don't agree with your forecasts. Just see my latest post just above and apply the real world and everything you know about people to it. In 2030 you'll see the truth of what I'm posting.
.

 

[oyster]

Once you factor in people, you see how limited automated cars will be.

You might be right. But many of us have many years and many hundreds of thousands of miles under our belts. We had little choice about learning to drive with pressure from many directions including, very often work.

Imagine having the option of avoiding the need to take a test? And being able to have a drink or three and still get home safely? And the cost of taking your test and paying for insurance as young driver are already serious disincentives.

Even as you get older, lack of experience will probably make driving yourself continue to be tougher than for those who had experience all the way through.

I also see this experience issue as being a continuing difficulty in any form of half-automated vehicle - driver assist or fully automated, never halfway.

 

[flecc]

You might be right. But many of us have many years and many hundreds of thousands of miles under our belts. We had little choice about learning to drive with pressure from many directions including, very often work.

Imagine having the option of avoiding the need to take a test? And being able to have a drink or three and still get home safely? And the cost of taking your test and paying for insurance as young driver are already serious disincentives.

I doubt learning to drive being under pressure was common, most started it because they really wanted to, and that is still true. It's a freedom issue.

Being able to have a drink or three isn't an issue, huge numbers do it already either using taxis or a non drinker in the group to drive. Being teetotal I was that person for many years.

But I still come back to the issue that automated cars for use in complex cities like London are still far away. There's Google cars in Pitsburgh and some other US cities crawling around as if racing a snail, infuriating other drivers, especially when they suddenly stop to have a think about what to do next.

Meanwhile Tesla has thrown caution to the winds with a few automated cars on the road and killed two people so far. In the ten year context of this thread discussion, the developers will still be trying to get them good enough.
.

 

[oyster]

Just saw someone ask if you could buy injectable vitamin B12 in the Isle of Wight (it is prescription-only in the UK but widely available over-the-counter in much of Europe).

Perhaps we should expect a campaign for the IOW to leave the UK? Vectis exit. I imagine they would be angry, so Vexit.

 

[oyster]

I doubt learning to drive was under pressure was common, most started it because they really wanted to, and that is still true.

I know many who only drive because they have to - and only started driving because of something like a job.

 

[Zlatan]

I want a self driving motorhome...go to sleep and wake up in the sunshine.

Get wife to drive..

 

[flecc]

I know many who only drive because they have to - and only started driving because of something like a job.

How odd, that's completely the opposite of my experience.
.

 

[oyster]

How odd, that's completely the opposite of my experience.
.

Of the three near-permanent of us where I work, two partners learned late and never drive if they can avoid it. The third is far more comfortable but still is more the second driver on long journeys. Tiny sample but I have often seen that.

 

[Woosh]

In 2030 you'll see the truth of what I'm posting.

2030 is too close for self driving cars. 2030 may be the year when self driving cars are road legal.
You need at least 10 years for the technology from being approved to be proven safe and cheap, then the preferred solution.
2035-2040 are likely to be the transformative years when diesel cars are banned throughout the EU.

 

[Woosh]

Get wife to drive..

I've done that for more than 10 years now.
She does not trust my driving anyway.

 

[flecc]

2030 is too close for self driving cars.
You need at least 10 years for the technology from being approved to be proven safe and cheap, then the preferred solution.
2035-2040 are likely to be the transformative years when diesel cars are banned throughout the EU.

Now we are getting nearer to agreement, far beyond the ten year forecast being discussing earlier. There's also all the legal implications to be dealt with and that's already causing headaches.

I think we'll see limited introductions of self driving cars in some cities from about 2040, but I'll be long gone by then. If not I'll be unlikely to be still driving at 104.
.

 

[flecc]

Of the three near-permanent of us where I work, two partners learned late and never drive if they can avoid it. The third is far more comfortable but still is more the second driver on long journeys. Tiny sample but I have often seen that.

I still can't accept that necessity is a big factor in taking up driving, the great majority of all jobs for example do not require any ability to drive,

If there was a large degree of unwillingness to drive, it should be much easier to get more people cycling. But it's widely accepted that the attractions of car driving in Britain is one of the two biggest factors stopping people taking up or returning to cycling.
.

 

[oyster]

I still can't accept that necessity is a big factor in taking up driving, the great majority of all jobs for example do not require any ability to drive,

If there was a large degree of unwillingness to drive, it should be much easier to get more people cycling. But it's widely accepted that the attractions of car driving in Britain is one of the two biggest factors stopping people taking up or returning to cycling.
.

My partner learned to drive not so much because her work required it, but she had to get to work!

The other one who dislikes driving had to for her job.

As someone who only recently returned to cycling (having not cycled significantly since late teens), I agree that car driving has been attractive. And it damn well still is one those cold mornings with high winds with heavy rain!

 

[oldgroaner]

Farage speaks again in the Telegraph
"Nigel Farage Andrew Marr's obsession with my past betrays the bias at the heart of the BBC.

For revealing the truth about a rabble rouser who has no interest in democracy to the extent of owning a political party answerable only to him?

I should jolly well hope they are biassed against dictators

 

[Woosh]

Farage speaks again in the Telegraph
"Nigel Farage Andrew Marr's obsession with my past betrays the bias at the heart of the BBC.

For revealing the truth about a rabble rouser who has no interest in democracy to the extent of owning a political party answerable only to him?

I should jolly well hope they are biassed against dictators

interesting take from the Guardian about Farage:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/13/nigel-farage-brexit-party-event-terrifying-glimpse-future

"Farage acknowledged the applause, his plastic perma-smile stretching into a fixed grin. These weren’t really his people, but he needed to make them believe they were. He needn’t have worried. The crowd of overwhelmingly white over-50s men and women weren’t there to make any demands on him. They just wanted him to sprinkle a bit of stardust their way. Nigel relaxed a little. Though not too much. This was the new, reinvented Farage, not the slightly pissed joker of years gone by. Stay on message. Give them what they want. Then give them more of what they want.

What you get now is Farage from the head, not the heart. A professional politician, masquerading as the outsider and playing the percentages. A man who has spotted an opening and is kicking it ever wider. This wasn’t his finest speech, but it didn’t need to be. No one was going to ask him any tricky questions about the racism of previous campaigns, his doubts about climate change or how he’d previously advocated a Norwegian-style Brexit. No, he wasn’t going to explain exactly how his no-deal Brexit was going to produce untold riches for everyone. Manifestos were only lies anyway. So all he was asking was that they believed and it would come true. And they did believe, because they were that desperate."

 

[oyster]

There's also all the legal implications to be dealt with and that's already causing headaches.

Be fun if UK regulations are not sufficiently similar to EU regulations...

 

[OxygenJames]

interesting take from the Guardian about Farage:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/13/nigel-farage-brexit-party-event-terrifying-glimpse-future

"Farage acknowledged the applause, his plastic perma-smile stretching into a fixed grin. These weren’t really his people, but he needed to make them believe they were. He needn’t have worried. The crowd of overwhelmingly white over-50s men and women weren’t there to make any demands on him. They just wanted him to sprinkle a bit of stardust their way. Nigel relaxed a little. Though not too much. This was the new, reinvented Farage, not the slightly pissed joker of years gone by. Stay on message. Give them what they want. Then give them more of what they want.

What you get now is Farage from the head, not the heart. A professional politician, masquerading as the outsider and playing the percentages. A man who has spotted an opening and is kicking it ever wider. This wasn’t his finest speech, but it didn’t need to be. No one was going to ask him any tricky questions about the racism of previous campaigns, his doubts about climate change or how he’d previously advocated a Norwegian-style Brexit. No, he wasn’t going to explain exactly how his no-deal Brexit was going to produce untold riches for everyone. Manifestos were only lies anyway. So all he was asking was that they believed and it would come true. And they did believe, because they were that desperate."

"His doubts about climate change". Ah. Sweet music to my ears. If there is one topic where 99.999% of the population have lost all ability to think rationally - it is that. And before you jump down my throat - I too was a bought up member of the cult - until I read 'A disgrace to the profession' about Michael Mann's hockey stick graph. The science is NOT over. There is MUCH we do not understand. The link between man-made CO2 and temperatures is NOT confirmed in ANY shape or form.

And so on.

 

[Woosh]

There is MUCH we do not understand.

I blame our education system.
I don't know if you watch TV quiz shows but the level of general knowledge on geography is very poor. If people don't know where most of the capital cities are, I bet they don't relate to climate issues because climate and geography are very much linked.

 

[Wicky]

"His doubts about climate change". Ah. Sweet music to my ears. If there is one topic where 99.999% of the population have lost all ability to think rationally - it is that. And before you jump down my throat - I too was a bought up member of the cult - until I read 'A disgrace to the profession' about Michael Mann's hockey stick graph. The science is NOT over. There is MUCH we do not understand. The link between man-made CO2 and temperatures is NOT confirmed in ANY shape.

And so on.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/446805144781348865