Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

He lampooned both sides equally.

None so blind that can see.

~Particularly you, how do you do it? no one is denying what he did, only cricising the way the paper presented it, and the spin they used.
How did you miss the point by such a huge margin?
For goodness sake engage the brain before posting
And for the record the quote is
"None so Blind as those that will not see"

 

[Kudoscycles]

Dave, the crashout can happen,and is as likely to happen as any other scenario. That the majority in the UK or even in the HoC might not wish it,is no guarantee .

I agree ,actually I think that if we no deal then 'nothing will change'....the extent of the changes required are so numerate that no department or business could cope.
I suppose it should save me £60 k pa in tariffs and duties but I bet that HMRC will not be set up to make the changes and will collect as normal.
I looked at our Sage system and raising invoices after no deal is easy,I just add the HS codes to every invoice line,that could mean a 50 line invoice having 10 or more different tariff codes all with different % tariff....say an export to France,how is the French customs guy going to calculate the correct tariff.?...it should of course be done at source but the Sage system has no mechanism for that. Imagine a TNT courier lorry with 200 consignments aboard with 200 invoices with 5000 invoice lines all with individual tariff codes,how the hell is French customs going to calculate the tariff...similarly we will have to do the same at Dover.
What they will do is let the trucks through unchecked as I say 'nothing has changed' but some jobsworth customs guy will cause gridlock in 10 mins.
Never really understood what the ERG want out of this,it seems a bit extreme just to bring back fox hunting !!!!
KudosDave

 

[Wicky]

Owen Paterson 'stunned Cabinet' with OAP fruit-picking idea - David Laws

The former Cabinet minister reportedly suggested enlisting pensioners to do the work of Bulgarian and Romanian migrants to help stem immigration

A former Cabinet minister has been criticised for allegedly planning to put pensioners to work picking fruit, in an effort to cut immigration.

Owen Paterson reportedly wanted to ease migration pressures by abolishing the agricultural workers scheme which allowed migrants from Romania and Bulgaria to work in the UK and enlist retired people to do their jobs instead.

Extracts published in the Mail on Sunday claim the suggestion "stunned" even the "more right wing" senior Tories around the Cabinet table.

Mr Laws wrote: "Someone suggested that while abolishing the scheme might reduce immigration, it could also be very unpopular with farmers, who would no longer find it easy to employ cheap labour for back-breaking outdoor work. 'Oh, but I've thought of that', said Paterson. 'I think I have the answer. We'll try to get more British pensioners picking some of the fruit and vegetables in the fields instead.'

"One of the officials taking notes looked up in surprise, clearly thinking she had heard incorrectly. She hadn't. And Paterson hadn't finished. 'Of course, getting British pensioners to do this work could lead to an increase in farmers' costs,' he said. 'After all, they may be a bit slower doing the work. I've thought of that too. I think we might arrange to exempt British pensioners from the minimum-wage laws, to allow them to do this work.'

"Cabinet colleagues, even the more right-wing Conservatives, listened in stunned silence. The official now realised she had indeed heard correctly, and tried, unsuccessfully, to stifle a laugh."

Mr Paterson denied the claims, telling Sky News the story was "completely wrong", claiming the scheme worked "very well".

"We looked at all sorts of options of how we could substitute them once there was open season from January 1 2014, right, so the story was wrong," he said.

 

[gray198]

what alternatives?
her cabinet is pretty balanced between leave and remain, they have already worked out that the best deal that they can get is the current deal on the table. The only real alternative is cancelling brexit.

If the vote is lost again she might decide to do a '''Cameron''' and resign. What would happen then I wonder??

 

[Woosh]

Your post listed three alternatives to May’s deal:

1) Not leaving the EU for many months.

2) Walk away without any deal.

3) Cancel Brexit.

In my opinion 1, 2 and 3 are better than May’s deal.

only cancelling brexit is a medium to long term alternative. 1) and 2) wouldn't last for more than 21 months.

 

[Woosh]

If the vote is lost again she might decide to do a '''Cameron''' and resign. What would happen then I wonder??

the bottom line is this question: do we want an FTA more than Customs Union and or Single Market.
The advantage of the CU and SM is much more than an FTA. If we go for an FTA, we'll be negotiating with the EU forever like Switzerland and the USA.
If the consensus is CU + SM, then remain makes sense.
Forget about not paying the £39 billion bill. We'll have to pay the bill when we agree the FTA.

 

[Danidl]

All three are options are within the power of the UK to exercise.

1) The U.K. can decide not to leave for many months. As a last resort, the U.K. can withdraw A50 and then resubmit it at a future time of their choosing. So delaying by many months is a possibility and it is an alternative to May’s deal which the U.K. can choose. It’s not a very attractive alternative, but it is an option.

2) The UK can choose to leave the EU without a deal. There is an alternative which is May’s deal, so again an alternative to May’s deal is available as an option.

3) We agree it is an alternative option.

Why do you find it necessary to take simple principles and over complicate them? You will just end up confusing yourself.

I confused?. I think not. A the moment there is a de facto situation. That is the current choice, ..the leave without a deal choice There are then alternatives to it. We can differ in our beliefs as to whether it is preferable to what would be alternatives. In logic there is a position and there are alternatives .

The delay instigated by the UK ,by the mechanism of recinding Article 50 and then sending a new letter is a mechanism. , I believe , I was the first to suggest that possibility on this forum . Which I posted soon after the ECJ decision in December.. In that posting , I also would have indicated that such an act would be viewed as despicable by the international community, and would make the UK a pariah..so much for over complicating!!. Trust between nations is very important and that type of behaviour would be athema. Not only is one back at square one,with a new deal to be negotiated, but any goodwill or respect has been forfeited.
There continues to be an option which might allow the WA or Deal to succeed.. restriction on the customs union alignment to the Island of Ireland. Sometime in the next two weeks , I am hoping that someone in the UK parliament has a lightbulb moment, . Will it be the case that the UK will choose the correct path, having finally exhausted all the others?.

 

[oldgroaner]

From the Times
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5914ce14-4129-11e9-889c-a7e27b96460c

Would you believe this?
The civil servant in charge of Britain’s no-deal Brexit preparations is retiring fom the civil service two days after he may have to put those plans into effect.
Philip Rycroft is to take early retirement from his job as permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union on March 31. He is 57.
He seems to be much wiser than most people!

 

[oldgroaner]

Owen Paterson 'stunned Cabinet' with OAP fruit-picking idea - David Laws

The former Cabinet minister reportedly suggested enlisting pensioners to do the work of Bulgarian and Romanian migrants to help stem immigration

A former Cabinet minister has been criticised for allegedly planning to put pensioners to work picking fruit, in an effort to cut immigration.

Owen Paterson reportedly wanted to ease migration pressures by abolishing the agricultural workers scheme which allowed migrants from Romania and Bulgaria to work in the UK and enlist retired people to do their jobs instead.

Extracts published in the Mail on Sunday claim the suggestion "stunned" even the "more right wing" senior Tories around the Cabinet table.

Mr Laws wrote: "Someone suggested that while abolishing the scheme might reduce immigration, it could also be very unpopular with farmers, who would no longer find it easy to employ cheap labour for back-breaking outdoor work. 'Oh, but I've thought of that', said Paterson. 'I think I have the answer. We'll try to get more British pensioners picking some of the fruit and vegetables in the fields instead.'

"One of the officials taking notes looked up in surprise, clearly thinking she had heard incorrectly. She hadn't. And Paterson hadn't finished. 'Of course, getting British pensioners to do this work could lead to an increase in farmers' costs,' he said. 'After all, they may be a bit slower doing the work. I've thought of that too. I think we might arrange to exempt British pensioners from the minimum-wage laws, to allow them to do this work.'

"Cabinet colleagues, even the more right-wing Conservatives, listened in stunned silence. The official now realised she had indeed heard correctly, and tried, unsuccessfully, to stifle a laugh."

Mr Paterson denied the claims, telling Sky News the story was "completely wrong", claiming the scheme worked "very well".

"We looked at all sorts of options of how we could substitute them once there was open season from January 1 2014, right, so the story was wrong," he said.

All on his own this this man has destroyed popular support for Brexit in the main age group that allegedly supported it.
The Remain camp needs more of his ilk , by Jove!

 

[Danidl]

From the Times
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5914ce14-4129-11e9-889c-a7e27b96460c

Would you believe this?
The civil servant in charge of Britain’s no-deal Brexit preparations is retiring fom the civil service two days after he may have to put those plans into effect.
Philip Rycroft is to take early retirement from his job as permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union on March 31. He is 57.
He seems to be much wiser than most people!

He may be only 57 chronologically,but I suspect he is 100 mentally.. the pressures of the last two years would have put decades on any rational person. And I suspect that the senior civil servants are rational people. Hell, I am a decade older,and still have my hair.

 

[Nev]

I wasn't paying 100% attention so I may have got some of this wrong but I think Michel Portillo said last night on the Politics show with Andrew Neil that he could see the following happening.

May loses the vote by close to 100 votes. In the next few days the HoC votes to reject leaving on WTO rules and also votes to send May back to the EU to request an extension.

The EU reject a short extension of say two or three months as they don't think anything will have changed in the HoC during that time and that TM will be in exactly the same position.

Instead they tell her she can have a long extension of around 2 years, but the UK will have to fight the up coming EU elections in May.

May comes back to the HoC to report back, offers another vote on her deal, saying that if it is rejected for a third time then we wont be leaving the EU for at least another two years and by that time we might not leave at all.

Faced with at least another two years of remaining in the EU and a strong possibility of not leaving at all, Mays deal is then passed.

This all seemed reasonably plausible to me, can any body see why all this is extremely unlikely to take place?

 

[oldgroaner]

I confused?. I think not. A the moment there is a de facto situation. That is the current choice, ..the leave without a deal choice There are then alternatives to it. We can differ in our beliefs as to whether it is preferable to what would be alternatives. In logic there is a position and there are alternatives .

The delay instigated by the UK ,by the mechanism of recinding Article 50 and then sending a new letter is a mechanism. , I believe , I was the first to suggest that possibility on this forum . Which I posted soon after the ECJ decision in December.. In that posting , I also would have indicated that such an act would be viewed as despicable by the international community, and would make the UK a pariah..so much for over complicating!!. Trust between nations is very important and that type of behaviour would be athema. Not only is one back at square one,with a new deal to be negotiated, but any goodwill or respect has been forfeited.
There continues to be an option which might allow the WA or Deal to succeed.. restriction on the customs union alignment to the Island of Ireland. Sometime in the next two weeks , I am hoping that someone in the UK parliament has a lightbulb moment, . Will it be the case that the UK will choose the correct path, having finally exhausted all the others?.

Which really begs the question
Do you believe in Miracles?

 

[oldgroaner]

I wasn't paying 100% attention so I may have got some of this wrong but I think Michel Portillo said last night on the Politics show with Andrew Neil that he could see the following happening.

May loses the vote by close to 100 votes. In the next few days the HoC votes to reject leaving on WTO rules and also votes to send May back to the EU to request an extension.

The EU reject a short extension of say two or three months as they don't think anything will have changed in the HoC during that time and that TM will be in exactly the same position.

Instead they tell her she can have a long extension of around 2 years, but the UK will have to fight the up coming EU elections in May.

May comes back to the HoC to report back, offers another vote on her deal, saying that if it is rejected for a third time then we wont be leaving the EU for at least another two years and by that time we might not leave at all.

Faced with at least another two years of remaining in the EU and a strong possibility of not leaving at all, Mays deal is then passed.

This all seemed reasonably plausible to me, can any body see why all this is extremely unlikely to take place?

The dilemmna the politicians face , is to test the public reaction before they have actually left the EU and can't get back in.
Since they can't do that, they will sign May's deal
I forecast from the beginning that they would sign May's Deal though fear. I haven't seen any signs yet of any other outcome.
They will sign, it, wait a few months then rat on the deal and the EU.
And I will make a further forecast.
What determines whether Parliament rats on the deal , is the amount of trouble in the streets if things go awry after Brexit.
if there is a hostile Public reaction , that will be the arbiter of the fate of the nation, not the actions of the Westminster Flying Circus.

 

[Fingers]

I forecast from the beginning that they would sign May's Deal though fear. I haven't seen any signs yet of any other outcome.
They will sign, it, wait a few months then rat on the deal and the EU.

You’ve basically said everything from a no deal to a second referendum to signing Mays deal to aliens.

You’ve forecast every single option and countless others.

 

[50Hertz]

Philip Rycroft is to take early retirement from his job as permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union on March 31. He is 57.

Good lad. I think leaving it until 57 is a bit late in life for retiring. Early 50s is a better option.

 

[Danidl]

Which really begs the question
Do you believe in Miracles?

We live in hope. It is the only antidote to dispair.

 

[50Hertz]

You’ve basically said everything from a no deal to a second referendum to signing Mays deal to aliens.

You’ve forecast every single option and countless others.

That’s why he’s always right.

 

[oldgroaner]

He may be only 57 chronologically,but I suspect he is 100 mentally.. the pressures of the last two years would have put decades on any rational person. And I suspect that the senior civil servants are rational people. Hell, I am a decade older,and still have my hair.

How dare you!
"If you can keep your hair on while all about are losing theirs,
then you have obviously no idea
of the seriousness of the situation."

 

[oldgroaner]

You’ve basically said everything from a no deal to a second referendum to signing Mays deal to aliens.

You’ve forecast every single option and countless others.

Wrong again,how do you do it?
I have never forecast any other outcome, merely discussed the possibilities.

I forecast they would sign Mays deal, nothing else.
Why do you keep making things up?
Do you have difficulty understanding the written word?

 

[oldgroaner]

That’s why he’s always right.

You really should try reading my posts, I use small words but still some find it hard to keep up.
I have never forecast any other outcome than them signing Mays deal, what i have done is expressed a hope for another referendum, but never forecast one would happen.
And of course if they don't sign May's deal I will have been proven wrong, won't I?