Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

Comments taken from the RTE
"Britain’s foreign minister has warned that future generations will blame the EU if it fails to come to an agreement at this point in the Brexit negotiations.

"This is a moment of change in our relationship between the UK and the EU and history will judge both sides very badly if we get this wrong," Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said.

Speaking on BBC Radio, he added: "We want to remain the best of friends with the EU. That means getting this agreement through in a way that doesn't inject poison into our relations for many years to come.

"That's what the UK has said we want to do, it's what most people in the UK want and feel very strongly about.

"But it does need the EU also to be flexible in these negotiations and understand that we now have a very, very clear ask.

"We know what it would take to get a deal through the House of Commons, and that is for a significant change to allow the Attorney General to change his advice to the government and say we couldn't be trapped in a customs union forever....

My take on this is
This is a nicely phrased name blame game. ,But a blame game all the same. The UK went into these negotiations at a time of its choosing, it decided to include all of the UK inside the same customs deal as NI. Nobody in the EU was expecting that,but was happy to concede on the point. Now the UK ,for internal political calculations wants to renage on the fundamental requirement of the EU side.. namely that there would not be a physical infrastructure barrier to trade and traffic on the interior of the island of Ireland. If and when an adequate technological solution has been agreed,then the customs alignment can diverge.
Now the UK at any stage could have accepted that NI was the special case,and inserted their customs checks in Liverpool,Cainryan,Douglas and we at Dublin, Wexford and Cork. But again for internal reasons refuse to consider that option. Again when the technology solutions then arise, they could remove their requirements for physical inspections at those ports.

 

[Fingers]

In the Daily Mail

The spoof snowflake who made a fool of the Lefties: 'Titania's' right-on Twitter nonsense was swallowed by an army of gullible followers... but she's really the satirical creation of a (male) Oxford academic, writes SARAH VINE

• Titania McGrath on Twitter claimed to be radical vegan and woke feminist poet
• In reality, she was created by Andrew Doyle, a former private school teacher, 40
• Sarah Vine says secret of the character’s success is, of course, her plausibility

Fascinating insight into the mentality of the author:
Lies and cheating are not immoral if they are in support of a political objective the paper supports.

Had this idiot academic been spoofing the Right wing, this would not have appeared in this paper, or if it did have been presented a "Dreadful left wing evil plot"

He lampooned both sides equally.

None so blind that can see.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Comments taken from the RTE
"Britain’s foreign minister has warned that future generations will blame the EU if it fails to come to an agreement at this point in the Brexit negotiations.

"This is a moment of change in our relationship between the UK and the EU and history will judge both sides very badly if we get this wrong," Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said.

Speaking on BBC Radio, he added: "We want to remain the best of friends with the EU. That means getting this agreement through in a way that doesn't inject poison into our relations for many years to come.

"That's what the UK has said we want to do, it's what most people in the UK want and feel very strongly about.

"But it does need the EU also to be flexible in these negotiations and understand that we now have a very, very clear ask.

"We know what it would take to get a deal through the House of Commons, and that is for a significant change to allow the Attorney General to change his advice to the government and say we couldn't be trapped in a customs union forever....

My take on this is
This is a nicely phrased name blame game. ,But a blame game all the same. The UK went into these negotiations at a time of its choosing, it decided to include all of the UK inside the same customs deal as NI. Nobody in the EU was expecting that,but was happy to concede on the point. Now the UK ,for internal political calculations wants to renage on the fundamental requirement of the EU side.. namely that there would not be a physical infrastructure barrier to trade and traffic on the interior of the island of Ireland. If and when an adequate technological solution has been agreed,then the customs alignment can diverge.
Now the UK at any stage could have accepted that NI was the special case,and inserted their customs checks in Liverpool,Cainryan,Douglas and we at Dublin, Wexford and Cork. But again for internal reasons refuse to consider that option. Again when the technology solutions then arise, they could remove their requirements for physical inspections at those ports.

Heard it first hand on car radio at crack of dawn. Thought parralel universe in which history blames eu for brexit (and anyone take hunt seriously,he could do masterclasses on sneering insincerity) must be an odd and very gullible place.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

He lampooned both sides equally.

None so blind that can see.

He, verbatim, said "tm has conducted the negotiations with much dignity" in the same interview. It added a surreal touch to an already quite insane Friday morning, for me

 

[Woosh]

My take on this is
This is a nicely phrased name blame game. ,But a blame game all the same. The UK went into these negotiations at a time of its choosing, it decided to include all of the UK inside the same customs deal as NI. Nobody in the EU was expecting that,but was happy to concede on the point. Now the UK ,for internal political calculations wants to renage on the fundamental requirement of the EU side.. namely that there would not be a physical infrastructure barrier to trade and traffic on the interior of the island of Ireland. If and when an adequate technological solution has been agreed,then the customs alignment can diverge.
Now the UK at any stage could have accepted that NI was the special case,and inserted their customs checks in Liverpool,Cainryan,Douglas and we at Dublin, Wexford and Cork. But again for internal reasons refuse to consider that option. Again when the technology solutions then arise, they could remove their requirements for physical inspections at those ports.

I don't think that there will be a technological solution. It's a political issue: both sides of the border want to remove checks on land, then the checks will have to be moved to the Irish Sea. I think that's the reality.
TM can't tell the Northern Irish that the checks will be in the Irish Sea at the moment but a future government can.
The solution needs to be a political one. She needs a ladder for the DUP and the ERG to climb down which is not easy.

 

[flecc]

I don't think that there will be a technological solution. It's a political issue: both sides of the border want to remove checks on land, then the checks will have to be moved to the Irish Sea. I think that's the reality.
TM can't tell the Northern Irish that the checks will be in the Irish Sea at the moment but a future government can.
The solution needs to be a political one. She needs a ladder for the DUP and the ERG to climb down which is not easy.

I fully agree and doubt the EU will ever accept a technological solution since that would always be exposed to large scale fraud.

Once the DUP is out of the way following the next general election, we can, as you say, impose an Irish Sea border.
.

 

[oyster]

TM latest...

May says that, if her deal fails to win a majority in the Commons next week, Britain may not leave the EU for many months, it may not leave with the protections that have been negotiated or “we may never leave”.

 

[Woosh]

TM latest...

May says that...
.

48% will tremble at the thought “or we may never leave”.

 

[50Hertz]

TM latest...

May says that, if her deal fails to win a majority in the Commons next week, Britain may not leave the EU for many months, it may not leave with the protections that have been negotiated or “we may never leave”.

All of those alternative options are preferable to her deal. Why doesn’t she understand this?

She is probably suffering from Old Groaner Syndrome. That is, she has a favourable mental picture of how her idea sits in the real world and only believes the evidence which supports that picture, disregarding the remaining evidence as unreliable.

 

[Woosh]

All of those alternative options are preferable to her deal. Why doesn’t she understand this?

what alternatives?
her cabinet is pretty balanced between leave and remain, they have already worked out that the best deal that they can get is the current deal on the table. The only real alternative is cancelling brexit.

 

[Danidl]

TM latest...

May says that, if her deal fails to win a majority in the Commons next week, Britain may not leave the EU for many months, it may not leave with the protections that have been negotiated or “we may never leave”.

Huh!.
If her deal is not passed, the default position of crash out remains with 10 days to go.
The EU will only consider an extension of Article 50 , if there is a obvious path forward.. which there is not. An extension for the purposes of an extension have been ruled out .
So the only real option is for UK to vote to recind Article 50. Possibly selling it as a retrenchment excercise. Will that fly?. If they don't then the crash out becomes more likely

 

[Wicky]

I don't think that there will be a technological solution.

On past & present Govt IT projects I would also be wary of them as saving the day

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-47482143

"Chris Henley QC, who chairs the CBA, said the courts' computer systems were "crumbling"."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-47228698

"A Transport for London (TfL) inquiry showed the Garden Bridge Trust spent £161,000 on a website"

Meanwhile

Theresa May has appealed nagged EU leaders for "one more push" to get her shelves put up and to take the dog for a walk but warned of a "moment of crisis" if MPs reject it.

 

[Danidl]

All of those alternative options are preferable to her deal. Why doesn’t she understand this?

She is probably suffering from Old Groaner Syndrome. That is, she has a favourable mental picture of how her idea sits in the real world and only believes the evidence which supports that picture, disregarding the remaining evidence as unreliable.

Do you not also think you might also be suffering under the same delusion?.
The real world options are.
1. Take the Deal.
2. Don't take the deal.
3. ... Huh!. There is no option 3.

Everything else is unicorn country.
1. The EU admits they were wrong all along ,and the UK deserves even more special treatment.
2. The EU grants an indefinite extension,for some ill-defined purpose.
3. On 30th March , 160 separate trading deals, which have been negotiated in secret are revealed and the UK sails away into a new Empire. Not to mention all those submarines hiding off the Mull of Kintyre laden with fresh vegetables, medicines ,all available at tariff free prices.

Now I can write perhaps a 100 unicorn scenarios, all consistent with the evidence that supports my viewpoint, but none of them operate in the real world.

The unicorn scenario I prefer is where the main leaders stand up in the HoC and admit that they were duped, lied to and misled, and by implication that the people whom they represent were also lied to. And that they are recognising their responsibilities to the people of the UK ,they are passing an emergency bill to cancel the Article 50 provision. That they will be sending their representatives back to the EU ,and will be contesting the EU elections.

 

[50Hertz]

what alternatives?
her cabinet is pretty balanced between leave and remain, they have already worked out that the best deal that they can get is the current deal on the table. The only real alternative is cancelling brexit.

Your post listed three alternatives to May’s deal:

1) Not leaving the EU for many months.

2) Walk away without any deal.

3) Cancel Brexit.

In my opinion 1, 2 and 3 are better than May’s deal.

 

[50Hertz]

Do you not also think you might also be suffering under the same delusion?.
The real world options are.
1. Take the Deal.
2. Don't take the deal.
3. ... Huh!. There is no option 3.

Everything else is unicorn country.
1. The EU admits they were wrong all along ,and the UK deserves even more special treatment.
2. The EU grants an indefinite extension,for some ill-defined purpose.
3. On 30th March , 160 separate trading deals, which have been negotiated in secret are revealed and the UK sails away into a new Empire. Not to mention all those submarines hiding off the Mull of Kintyre laden with fresh vegetables, medicines ,all available at tariff free prices.

Now I can write perhaps a 100 unicorn scenarios, all consistent with the evidence that supports my viewpoint, but none of them operate in the real world.

The unicorn scenario I prefer is where the main leaders stand up in the HoC and admit that they were duped, lied to and misled, and by implication that the people whom they represent were also lied to. And that they are recognising their responsibilities to the people of the UK ,they are passing an emergency bill to cancel the Article 50 provision. That they will be sending their representatives back to the EU ,and will be contesting the EU elections.

No. Unicorns? WTF?

See #49094

 

[Kudoscycles]

May says that, if her deal fails to win a majority in the Commons next week, Britain may not leave the EU for many months, it may not leave with the protections that have been negotiated or “we may never leave”.
'We may never leave'......as parliament is a majority of remainers that sounds just fine with most MP's,I suspect the majority of the country is also fine with that.
Most are fed up with brexit and remain seems the quickest way to conclude.
There was a leaver (note always seem to be old and retired) from Derby who said that the Japanese motor industry is leaving the UK because the EU-Jap trade deal allows tariff free trade,it didnt seem to register with the guy that if we stayed in the EU we also would enjoy tariff free trade and maybe the Japs would not feel that they had to quit the UK,duh !!!!
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

Your post listed three alternatives to May’s deal:

1) Not leaving the EU for many months.

2) Walk away without any deal.

3) Cancel Brexit.

In my opinion 1, 2 and 3 are better than May’s deal.

Except option 2 is not a walk,its a dive off a cliff. It cant happen anyway the country would fall apart in a week,there is not one government department that is ready for no deal.
KudosDave

 

[Danidl]

No.

See #49094

Nice..
But .
1. Is not an option. Or more correctly it is not an option available to the UK. It is a potential concession which the EU might be prepared to offer, subject only to their expectation that a Deal is imminent.
2. That is not an alternative, it is actually the de facto or current default position. Whether it is preferable in the short, medium or longer terms is arguable and has been argued on this forum extensively. We are very likely to see how it pans out in the short term shortly.
3. Yes that is a genuine alternative,and one I would be very pleased with.

 

[Danidl]

Except option 2 is not a walk,its a dive off a cliff. It cant happen anyway the country would fall apart in a week,there is not one government department that is ready for no deal.
KudosDave

Dave, the crashout can happen,and is as likely to happen as any other scenario. That the majority in the UK or even in the HoC might not wish it,is no guarantee .

 

[50Hertz]

Nice..
But .
1. Is not an option. Or more correctly it is not an option available to the UK. It is a potential concession which the EU might be prepared to offer, subject only to their expectation that a Deal is imminent.
2. That is not an alternative, it is actually the de facto or current default position. Whether it is preferable in the short, medium or longer terms is arguable and has been argued on this forum extensively. We are very likely to see how it pans out in the short term shortly.
3. Yes that is a genuine alternative,and one I would be very pleased with.

All three are options are within the power of the UK to exercise.

1) The U.K. can decide not to leave for many months. As a last resort, the U.K. can withdraw A50 and then resubmit it at a future time of their choosing. So delaying by many months is a possibility and it is an alternative to May’s deal which the U.K. can choose. It’s not a very attractive alternative, but it is an option.

2) The UK can choose to leave the EU without a deal. There is an alternative which is May’s deal, so again an alternative to May’s deal is available as an option.

3) We agree it is an alternative option.

Why do you find it necessary to take simple principles and over complicate them? You will just end up confusing yourself.