Brexit, for once some facts.

[Zlatan]

https://mol.im/a/6585263

Rather a timely reminder about our last labour government.
Kelly didnt commit suicide but timing of this is rather suspicious too.
We are still reaping rewards of devastation Blair did to country and especially labour party.
We are in crazy situation now where if May fails to get her deal through she will stay in power. (DUP wont support Corbyn if deal fails)
Whereas if it gets through DUP could dessert her, losing no 10..
What a shambles..
Noticed quite a few MPs vowing they would not allow a no deal. Exactly how?

 

[Woosh]

What was the point of having the slogan ? just who was supposed to "Take back control"?

they are clutching at straws.
I would have thought a better strategy for TM to minimise the scale of her defeat is to threaten the ERG with removing No Deal from the table to force them to support her deal instead of 'My deal or no deal'.
Maybe she keeps this trump card for Wednesday.

 

[oyster]

Dude. This isn't news

That there is likely going to be a no-confidence motion is not news. Confirmation that the process of preparing for it is underway is.

 

[OxygenJames]

Is this for real? Or some sort of sabre-rattling and trying to apply pressure?

I guess we don't have very long to wait...

Labour set to call vote to topple Theresa May’s government
Opposition MPs told to get set for no-confidence vote as top Tories admit they see no hope for the prime minister’s Brexit deal

Labour MPs have been told to prepare for Jeremy Corbyn to table a dramatic and immediate vote of no confidence in Theresa May’s government as early as Tuesday evening in an attempt to force a general election if – as expected – she suffers a heavy defeat this week on her Brexit deal.

Messages have been sent to Labour MPs, even those who are unwell, to ensure their presence both for the “meaningful vote” on the prime minister’s Brexit blueprint on Tuesday and the following day. Labour whips have told MPs the no-confidence vote is likely to be tabled within hours of a government loss, with the actual vote taking place on Wednesday.

The news comes before what promises to be one of the most tumultuous 24 hours in recent parliamentary history in which, barring another delay, May will put her Brexit deal to parliament despite deep and widespread opposition across the Commons, including from many MPs inside her own party.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/12/labour-set-to-trigger-vote-to-topple-theresa-may-government

More complete nonsense from the Guardian. The reason Corbyn keeps holding off from a confidence vote - is that he will lose it. As it stands the DUP will support the government - Corbyn can not win a vote of no-confidence right now.

 

[oyster]

https://mol.im/a/6585263

Rather a timely reminder about our last labour government.
Kelly didnt commit suicide but timing of this is rather suspicious too.
We are still reaping rewards of devastation Blair did to country and especially labour party.
We are in crazy situation now where if May fails to get her deal through she will stay in power. (DUP wont support Corbyn if deal fails)
Whereas if it gets through DUP could dessert her, losing no 10..
What a shambles..
Noticed quite a few MPs vowing they would not allow a no deal. Exactly how?

Given that story says:

Successive governments have refused to allow full coroner’s inquest to be held

It is hardly limited to Labour.

 

[Woosh]

Corbyn can not win a vote of no-confidence right now.

I believe JC's strategy is not to win the vote of no confidence.
His priority is to rule out the No Deal outcome.
Once parliament does that, the tories are irremediably divided and the DUP will cease their deal with the conservatives.
TM's government will self destruct.

 

[Zlatan]

Given that story says:

Successive governments have refused to allow full coroner’s inquest to be held

It is hardly limited to Labour.

Was a Labour government that took us to war, completely ignoring public will at the time. Was a labour leader that lied to entire world to justify an illegal war.
As to why subsequent governments didnt support a full enquiry I have no idea.
I do find it rather suspicious we are all reminded of this episode days before a possible call for a GE by labour...???

 

[anotherkiwi]

Was a Labour government that took us to war, completely ignoring public will at the time. Was a labour leader that lied to entire world to justify an illegal war.
As to why subsequent governments didnt support a full enquiry I have no idea.
I do find it rather suspicious we are all reminded of this episode days before a possible call for a GE by labour...???

Tut tut! You will come over as being naive Z!

 

[oldgroaner]

More complete nonsense from the Guardian. The reason Corbyn keeps holding off from a confidence vote - is that he will lose it. As it stands the DUP will support the government - Corbyn can not win a vote of no-confidence right now.

At last! commenting on topic, and for once I'm inclined to agree.

 

[oldgroaner]

Was a Labour government that took us to war, completely ignoring public will at the time. Was a labour leader that lied to entire world to justify an illegal war.
As to why subsequent governments didnt support a full enquiry I have no idea.
I do find it rather suspicious we are all reminded of this episode days before a possible call for a GE by labour...???

Which rather proves the point that New Labour was just the Tory "B" team....
And yes the timing is suspicious.

 

[oldgroaner]

I believe JC's strategy is not to win the vote of no confidence.
His priority is to rule out the No Deal outcome.
Once parliament does that, the tories are irremediably divided and the DUP will cease their deal with the conservatives.
TM's government will self destruct.

And how will the Government self destruct, assuming that there is no vote of self confidence?
How will that differ from it's present condition?

(Apart from the ticking of the Brexit clock of course) which could see a sudden interest in the "Get out of Jail Scot free of blame card" of a referendum.

Sooner or later the MP's will realise this is the only way to protect their future election prospects, as that way whatever goes wrong in future
"It's the Whim of the People" not our fault! will be their defence, and a pretty good one too!

 

[Zlatan]

Which rather proves the point that New Labour was just the Tory "B" team....
And yes the timing is suspicious.

Not quite OG.. Blair was Labour no matter how much labour movement tries to disown him... He still has his supporters and his actions fostered our current loony left brigade running labour at moment. Its a sort of balancing out, but problem being neither end are electable.
Dismissing Blair/New Labour as tory lite is missing point labour needs to change to represent UK, but party is proving incapable of even uniting let alone changing.

 

[Woosh]

And how will the Government self destruct, assuming that there is no vote of self confidence?
How will that differ from it's present condition?

(Apart from the ticking of the Brexit clock of course) which could see a sudden interest in the "Get out of Jail Scot free of blame card" of a referendum.

Sooner or later the MP's will realise this is the only way to protect their future election prospects, as that way whatever goes wrong in future
"It's the Whim of the People" not our fault! will be their defence, and a pretty good one too!

if the DUP stops supporting TM's government, it may support a new motion of no confidence.

 

[Zlatan]

if the DUP stops supporting TM's government, it may support a new motion of no confidence.

Only if May gets deal through.

 

[Woosh]

Only if May gets deal through.

the DUP has to choose between WTO and staying very close to the EU to stay inside the UK customs area.
In effect, it can only choose to stay close to the EU because WTO will create a border between North and South Ireland.
The ERG can't support a conservative government that wants to stay in the EU customs union. Sooner or later, TM's government will be paralysed.

 

[Zlatan]

the DUP has to choose between WTO and staying very close to the EU to stay inside the UK customs area.
In effect, it can only choose to stay close to the EU because WTO will create a border between North and South Ireland.
The ERG can't support a conservative government that wants to stay in the EU customs union. Sooner or later, TM's government will be paralysed.

ERG will support her to stay in power. DUP have been bought once and are leavers. If DUP strike a deal with Corbyn it could bring May down.
My bet is still May doesnt get her deal and then a second ref. But we are all crystal ball gazing...
Off to SA today... So BFN..
Hope its all sorted for my return..

 

[Zlatan]

ERG will support her to stay in power. DUP have been bought once and are leavers. If DUP strike a deal with Corbyn it could bring May down.
My bet is still May doesnt get her deal and then a second ref. But we are all crystal ball gazing...
Off to SA today... So BFN..
Hope its all sorted for my return..

Not sure whats so boring Robo... But each to his own..

 

[tommie]

Only if May gets deal through.

Correct!

but thats not going to happen

 

[tommie]

the DUP has to choose between WTO and staying very close to the EU

`close to the EU`?? !!
You gotta be joking!!
As it stands at the moment it`s WTO for the DUP, which by the way is the default position anyway.
It all hinges on the EU, they will run the clock down to 11.59 in the hope of clinging on to their backstop.
Bottom line for the EU is drop the backstop or lose £39Bn + the UK`s yearly sub etc etc.

The big plus in all of this for the EU is they have a feeble weak-kneed PM May and a remain cabinet in downing street ........... they will wait for now.

 

[Fingers]

https://mol.im/a/6585263

Rather a timely reminder about our last labour government.
Kelly didnt commit suicide but timing of this is rather suspicious too.
We are still reaping rewards of devastation Blair did to country and especially labour party.
We are in crazy situation now where if May fails to get her deal through she will stay in power. (DUP wont support Corbyn if deal fails)
Whereas if it gets through DUP could dessert her, losing no 10..
What a shambles..
Noticed quite a few MPs vowing they would not allow a no deal. Exactly how?

The feather men did for Kelly