Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

We are now seeing much blamed on brexit in the medicines arena. Patients are getting told that some medicines are unavailable or in short supply "due to brexit".

What we do not know is what the truth is. Are pharmaceutical companies exploiting the situation? Are they planning price rises? Is stockpiling, official or unofficial, a cause? Is it just an excuse for a pharmacy that is incompetent at ordering medicines? Is this a part of TM's invocation of fear of no-deal?


Brexit: Is NHS already finding it hard to get medicines?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46597425

 

[oyster]

Further down on the same page is a more realistic piece
"Business watch political infighting 'in horror' with just 100 days to go until Brexit"

Have seen the basic reports of this - whilst I agree that business must be appalled, is there any stirring in what they have said?

 

[oyster]

I won't be long before the situation becomes intolerable to a lot of people at all levels of society, even the ones who imagine it won't affect them.

Absolutely agree - the effects will permeate absolutely everywhere and, in keeping with the good old laws of unintended consequences, many will be both unintended and unexpected (at least to some people even if others have predicted some of them).

 

[Zlatan]

In the Guardian too
Troops on Stand by for no deal Brexit

Britain’s economy could be plunged into chaos unless MPs stop playing politics and back the prime minister’s Brexit deal, the country’s five leading employers’ groups warn today. The cabinet yesterday agreed to escalate preparations for a no-deal Brexit, including putting 3,500 armed forces personnel on standby and hiring thousands of extra civil servants.

What a wonderful example of Project Fear on Steroids!

I think you are missing the point. I suspect if we don't pass May's deal we will crash out.
Firstly,if May is still in charge, we will not get ref2 and she will want to have Brexit even if it entails no deal.
Secondly, assuming parliament ousts May and attempts to control our leaving it will be too late. Imagine the infighting...
I actually think we will crash out and don't see it as either other side of project fear or a negotiating strategy. They have proved incapable of having strategy, had it been so precautions would have been put in place months ago.
I really think when May says we are leaving, we are. After all when both Corbyn and Mr Unite both want out what else can we expect.
We are leaving. Forget ref2. It ain't going to happen.
Cable and Co are instigating a no confidence in government who can simply ignore it.. It has to come from Corbyn and it won't..
Amazing how many MP's are saying if no deal is target they will resign. Big deal. It does not need to be targeted to happen. Its called crash for a reason.
Perhaps someone could explain the mechanics and logistics of May's deal not getting through and our not crashing out. Who has political will or balls to rescind art50? Can ref2 be organised in time? Nobody has a good enough majority to be decisive... result... No decisions.. Hence crash out...
Crashing out is the real back stop position.
We, ve seen things like this in past. Everybody sees the train heading down track, everybody argues, nobody compromises, decisions are delayed, assumptions are made... Nothing happens... Until train crashes. Its happening.It won't lead to war but the analogy with 1914 is there.

 

[oyster]

Forget ref2. It ain't going to happen.

Happy not to have "ref2" - so long as A50 is withdrawn.

 

[Zlatan]

And... assuming Tory remainers unite with Labour and bring government down... Putting Corbyn in power (big if) will he remain. Doubtful at best.

 

[Zlatan]

Happy not to have "ref2" - so long as A50 is withdrawn.

By who??? Please explain how that could happen??

 

[Fingers]

Well I did not introduce the topic..read back and you will find that it was our northern friend Tommie who did.

You might choose to believe that the troubles part 2 will not re emerge . But neither I , John Major, or the head of the PSNI share that optimism. Enough time has now elapsed that the romance of that period is starting to fill young heads,and they don't recall,..(how could they) , the horror. . The event in Roscommon is fuel to such fantasy. May I say with a little respect, if your age is indeed 40 and you only have peripheral knowledge of Ireland and the border counties, then this is a topic you know nothing about.

Yes the majority of Irish exports to the mainland of Europe, pass via the "landbridge" of Dublin Liverpool, or Holyhead onto the North Wales motorway or via Rosslare onto the Southern Wales motorway and then via the channel l tunnel or the RoRo ferries. This is particularly the case for time critical fresh cargo. The fastest direct ferries take 16 to 18 hours, and leave one in Western Brittany or Cherbourg. It would add on about 6 hours ,which is very inconvenient when getting lamb to the Paris market. I have been aware of this for some 2.5 years , and have been warning about it.
The problem remains as bad whether the holdup is in Newry or in Holyhead.
What you need to get your head around is that it is going to happen, unless the UK gets real.

Well I lived in Belfast for 3 months in 1997 and worked with Dennis Murray every day but what do I know eh?

Haven’t played the game. Not Irish. How can you know if you’re not Irish.

As I said. I really hope it’s no deal. Really looking forward to Leo and his chums sweating bullets.

 

[Zlatan]

Well I lived in Belfast for 3 months in 1997 and worked with Dennis Murray every day but what do I know eh?

Haven’t played the game. Not Irish. How can you know if you’re not Irish.

As I said. I really hope it’s no deal. Really looking forward to Leo and his chums sweating bullets.

The daft thing is fingers, all the moaning, insulting and self belief by the remainers is going to push country into your wishes.. Personally, I, d rather country, politicians and rest of us get behind May on this single matter. Its a compromise with much to offer all sides, yes problematic in some but not insurmountable. If we don't I guess it's 90% or so for no deal and 10% or so Remain. Both those options will see even more arguing and division.

 

[tillson]

“Army on standby for no deal Brexit”

What is the purpose of this statement from the government? Am I supposed to feel reassured and comforted?

This “army”, is it composed of troops we don’t have due to a multi-million pound privatised recruitment clusterfuck, orchestrated by..... the government? Or does it consist of demoralised, shoddily treated and betrayed troops who have been shat on by.......the government?

To be considering military intervention just 100 days from the deadline and after squandering two & a half years of planning opportunity is the scandal in all of this, and that is entirely the fault of ...... the government.

It’s clear that like the rest of the country, the government initially thought that Brexit was something different to what it is turning out to be. They underestimated the consequences and difficulties. They have been unexpectedly caught with their trousers down. This is why we are experiencing panic measures such as deploying troops that they have failed to recruit.

The constants throughout all of this have been ineptitude, failure and stubbornness. This government will continue to stubbornly forge ahead against a tidal of information indicating that they should stop. They will continue, they will get it wrong and they will fail us all.

 

[Fingers]

The daft thing is fingers, all the moaning, insulting and self belief by the remainers is going to push country into your wishes.. Personally, I, d rather country, politicians and rest of us get behind May on this single matter. Its a compromise with much to offer all sides, yes problematic in some but not insurmountable. If we don't I guess it's 90% or so for no deal and 10% or so Remain. Both those options will see even more arguing and division.

I’ll be honest with you zlats. I’ve said all along I could take or leave remain same as leave. It’s not going to change my life too much. Would rather my son grew up in an environment that isn’t controlled by an unelected federation but there you go.

What I do object strongly to is Mays deal though. We are paying to be in a worse position with no hope of actually leaving.

It’s really the worst of both worlds. I suspect that is what she wants. Grind everyone down until they say it’s not worth it.

I think the opposite is happening as people I know who voted remain are now saying let’s just get out.

 

[Fingers]

“Army on standby for no deal Brexit”

What is the purpose of this statement from the government? Am I supposed to feel reassured and comforted?

This “army”, is it composed of troops we don’t have due to a multi-million pound privatised recruitment clusterfuck, orchestrated by..... the government? Or does it consist of demoralised, shoddily treated and betrayed troops who have been shat on by.......the government?

To be considering military intervention just 100 days from the deadline and after squandering two & a half years of planning opportunity is the scandal in all of this, and that is entirely the fault of ...... the government.

It’s clear that like the rest of the country, the government initially thought that Brexit was something different to what it is turning out to be. They underestimated the consequences and difficulties. They have been unexpectedly caught with their trousers down. This is why we are experiencing panic measures such as deploying troops that they have failed to recruit.

The constants throughout all of this have been ineptitude, failure and stubbornness. This government will continue to stubbornly forge ahead against a tidal of information indicating that they should stop. They will continue, they will get it wrong and they will fail us all.

I suspect they will drafted in to ports. But yes. It’s a pointless exercise and terrible pr.

I really believe this is the most inept government since Neville and his bit of paper.

 

[anotherkiwi]

“Army on standby for no deal Brexit”

What is the purpose of this statement from the government? Am I supposed to feel reassured and comforted?

This “army”, is it composed of troops we don’t have due to a multi-million pound privatised recruitment clusterfuck, orchestrated by..... the government? Or does it consist of demoralised, shoddily treated and betrayed troops who have been shat on by.......the government?

To be considering military intervention just 100 days from the deadline and after squandering two & a half years of planning opportunity is the scandal in all of this, and that is entirely the fault of ...... the government.

It’s clear that like the rest of the country, the government initially thought that Brexit was something different to what it is turning out to be. They underestimated the consequences and difficulties. They have been unexpectedly caught with their trousers down. This is why we are experiencing panic measures such as deploying troops that they have failed to recruit.

The constants throughout all of this have been ineptitude, failure and stubbornness. This government will continue to stubbornly forge ahead against a tidal of information indicating that they should stop. They will continue, they will get it wrong and they will fail us all.

Where are they going to put the soldiers:

- in front of rich peoples homes?
- in front of supermarkets to prevent looting?
- in front of parliament to prevent the politicians from being dragged out to be hung from London bridge?

Would be very interesting to see the deployement plans...

 

[Zlatan]

I’ll be honest with you zlats. I’ve said all along I could take or leave remain same as leave. It’s not going to change my life too much. Would rather my son grew up in an environment that isn’t controlled by an unelected federation but there you go.

What I do object strongly to is Mays deal though. We are paying to be in a worse position with no hope of actually leaving.

It’s really the worst of both worlds. I suspect that is what she wants. Grind everyone down until they say it’s not worth it.

I think the opposite is happening as people I know who voted remain are now saying let’s just get out.

Couldn't agree more. I, ve said similar. I, ve been middle of road, leave or stay don't think will affect me personally. But we are where we are and remaining is beginning to seem out of reach.
The whole affair has been dealt with terribly and I, ve found the recriminations from remain bordering on disgusting and offensive. Which, IMHO, has been the worst aspect of all this but I suspect the leave faction would probably be worse if we remain... So for me it's May's deal... But who knows..The woman is trying to find a route through a minefield, but with a stick rather than metal detector..
And I blame Cameron, Osborn and Corbyn..
Said it for a year now. Corbyn should have championed remain. We, d all know exactly where country stands, instead they have all played politics to detriment of country.

 

[oyster]

“Army on standby for no deal Brexit”

3500 is an absolutely tiny number. By the time you allow for some sort of shift work (if it needs the army, it is unlikely to fit nicely into 9-to-5 days), that will reduce the active number to a little over 1000. Across the entire country!

It feels like a threat - cause trouble and the army will be there to back up the police in quelling any disturbance.

 

[OxygenJames]

Facts. Here are some interesting facts I have found out - about Brexit.

(gleaned from HMRC, ONS, and EU Commission)

1) 92.6% of UK GDP has nothing to do with selling goods to the EU.

Number one bears repeating so I will repeat it:

1) 92.6% (ninety two point six percent!) of UK GDP has nothing to do with selling goods to the EU.

2) The % of UK goods and services exports going to the EU27 has fallen from 55% in 1999 - to 43% last year.

3) Average UK growth rates have fallen since we became a member of the single market - not risen (1968 - 1992 - 2.4%, 1993 - 2017 - 2.2%.

4) Over 160 countries trade with the EU without being a member of the single market.

That will do for now.

I will see what else I can find and try to ignore the pointless slanging matches that pass for communication around these parts.

 

[flecc]

I still don't see why remainers are not all getting behind the current agreement from EU. Let's face it, if EU have agreed to it it can't really be leaving.
In doing this I do see it as remainers driving us toward exactly what remainers do not want.

This is the irony Zlatan, both side as guilty. The more extreme No Deal backers like JRM and co. are driving the calls for a new referendum and the more extreme remainers towards no deal, doing each others dirty work.

Nowhere is this more true than in the House of Commons.
.

 

[OxygenJames]

For those that like your facts in pictorial form:

 

[oyster]

1) 92.6% of UK GDP has nothing to do with selling goods to the EU.

Could you actually point us at the information as published?

The meaning of that statement is not at all clear as a bald statement sans context.

 

[tillson]

I suspect they will drafted in to ports. But yes. It’s a pointless exercise and terrible pr.

I really believe this is the most inept government since Neville and his bit of paper.

The situation is compounded by the fact that there is no opposition party. Labour are a disgrace. In the past, I have thought that Corbyn was ok, but when you look at the front bench of Labour..... FMTH. Just take one of them, Diane Abbott. What ever possessed the man to select her? Surely someone could have purchased a balloon, painted a face on it and dressed it in a pair of dungarees. That would have made a much more credible Shadow Home Secretary and it would have gone a long way towards restoring people’s confidence in Labour.