Brexit, for once some facts.

Zlatan

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All the indications are that a second in/out referendum would result in Remain by margin of at least 8%. That's over double the margin the other way last time and whatever the government they'd be obliged to honour that more decisive 12% swing vote, an unusually high swing in any election.

I don't think many leavers wíll have changed their minds, the difference now is for other reasons. Last time, just like Cameron, many were complacent in their belief that Remain would win so didn't bother to vote and as a result had a shock at the result.

They wouldn't make that mistake again so the Remain turnout would be very much larger and more determined. Add to that the minority of Leavers who are fed up with the whole issue so might not vote again and you get a big voting swing. The margin could even be over 10%, a 14% + swing.
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And of course we can take polls as accurate???
First of all would voters actually turn out to vote again. Yes, all those on here would but there is growing apathy and couldn't care less..
And assume remain wins? Who leads that Tory govt ? And then the worst scenario. Assume leave wins. (again)... We crash out. May's Brino is best option at moment..
 

Fingers

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All the indications are that a second in/out referendum would result in Remain by margin of at least 8%. That's over double the margin the other way last time and whatever the government they'd be obliged to honour that more decisive 12% swing vote, an unusually high swing in any election.

I don't think many leavers wíll have changed their minds, the difference now is for other reasons. Last time, just like Cameron, many were complacent in their belief that Remain would win so didn't bother to vote and as a result had a shock at the result.

They wouldn't make that mistake again so the Remain turnout would be very much larger and more determined. Add to that the minority of Leavers who are fed up with the whole issue so might not vote again and you get a big voting swing. The margin could even be over 10%, a 14% + swing.
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Polls aren’t what they used to be.

I wouldn’t be surprised if leave extended their majority. Project fear doesn’t work in this country.

Contrary to what you read here most folks in this country are not sheeple. We don’t like to be pushed around.
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Yvette Cooper has just summed up what's wrong with Labour. Basically they are thick
She tells May that she won't take country to a no deal situation if her plan gets voted down.. If May's plan is voted down its out of May's hands. Cooper is assuming May would go for a second ref. But May knows full well that answers nothing and could easily make matters worse(a leave vote) and a remain vote would see May's position untenable. If May is in charge there will be no second ref.
Perhaps May should put second ref forward now.
A) accept her deal.
B) remain.
There really isn't any other offers, unless we are brave enough to take EU to brink, which we have proved.... we are not.
 
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Woosh

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It's the trust issue again. People don't trust the establishment to take a decision based on what is best for the country. The establishment has a track record of covering up, hiding fact, lying and acting in their own individual interests. People can't find a way past that and that is why they wanted a Yes / No type vote on the EU. Nigel Farage very successfully tapped into the discontent created by the establishment. Sadly, he has turned out to be no better and immediately deserted the ship he launched when it sank after hitting the water. Trust & credibility in tatters.
Trust & credibility in tatters.
this state of affairs is aggravated by the fact that all the prominent brexiteers are not paupers.
 
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oldgroaner

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Polls aren’t what they used to be.

I wouldn’t be surprised if leave extended their majority. Project fear doesn’t work in this country.

Contrary to what you read here most folks in this country are not sheeple. We don’t like to be pushed around.
That's hilarious! the easiest way to con the masses is to tell them someone is bullying them, you were taken by Farage, Boris, Gove etc, and you don't think you're sheeple?
Strange that leave voters were conned en masse, and at the hands of Blithering idiots too?
And now it's happening again, how dumb can people be?.
How much of your Brexit has been "edited out" and is lying on "The cutting room floor?"
:D
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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How very true!
Think you need some evidence for this. All MP, s are relatively wealthy. Corbyn makes out he, s "working class" but isn't and still accepts his not inconsiderable payments. He is a leaver.
All the prominent players are wealthy..
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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If referendums / parliamentary democracy can't get us out the impasse - then some benevolent dictator / God ordained monarch could step in to make the tough decision about where the heck we are heading... ;-)
Aren't you happy waiting for the completion of Vladimir Putin's plan?
 
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Zlatan

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If referendums / parliamentary democracy can't get us out the impasse - then some benevolent dictator / God ordained monarch could step in to make the tough decision about where the heck we are heading... ;-)
Queen wants out.. The HoS not the band. Great idea.. Return to monarchy... better than the anarchy we have at moment. Tom will be bursting.... Again...
 

oldgroaner

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Think you need some evidence for this. All MP, s are relatively wealthy. Corbyn makes out he, s "working class" but isn't and still accepts his not inconsiderable payments. He is a leaver.
All the prominent players are wealthy..
That is the problem: Parliament doesn't represent the Public, does it? the only difference between parties is that some pretend to do so.
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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That is the problem: Parliament doesn't represent the Public, does it? the only difference between parties is that some pretend to do so.
The EU is just as bad OG. Probably worse and certainly more sexiest. How many females in high office in Brussels...
 

oldgroaner

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Queen wants out.. The HoS not the band. Great idea.. Return to monarchy... better than the anarchy we have at moment. Tom will be bursting.... Again...
This get's funnier by the moment as the real Monarch (Last of the Plantagenets) owns a Sheep Farm in Australia, and when approached and asked why don't your press your rightful claim to the throne
Responded with a regal answer
"Aaah shove it!":)
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Perhaps May should put second ref forward now.
A) accept her deal.
B) remain.
There really isn't any other offers, unless we are brave enough to take EU to brink, which we have proved.... we are not.
I agree, those two are the only viable ways forward now and I'd like the public to take that decision. The public overruling itself on a second vote would be accepted, especially with a larger margin. Being overruled by government wouldn't be accepted.
.
 

Fingers

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 9, 2016
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Yvette Cooper has just summed up what's wrong with Labour. Basically they are thick
She tells May that she won't take country to a no deal situation if her plan gets voted down.. If May's plan is voted down its out of May's hands. Cooper is assuming May would go for a second ref. But May knows full well that answers nothing and could easily make matters worse(a leave vote) and a remain vote would see May's position untenable. If May is in charge there will be no second ref.
Perhaps May should put second ref forward now.
A) accept her deal.
B) remain.
There really isn't any other offers, unless we are brave enough to take EU to brink, which we have proved.... we are not.

Her deal is worse than remaining or no deal. It’s a typical May offer.

Worse than nothing.
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Her deal is worse than remaining or no deal. It’s a typical May offer.

Worse than nothing.
Well perhaps we should remain then. (I voted and believe (d) in leave. Is it worth the risk? I, m not sure anymore.
Exactly who is capable of negotiating a better deal now? Corbyn isn't. JRM ? Boris? This deal is as leave as its going to get... Push it further and its no deal or remain... In which case afraid I, m a remainer.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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How many females in high office in Brussels...
After their experience of our two English female prime ministers and Angela Merkel inviting in migrants by the million, perhaps that shows just how sensible the EU is.
.
 
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