Sorry It appears there is a communication problem perhaps I should have indicated the referendum should be with identical questions to the last one.
In or out
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
In or out
It would only solve it tho OG if it came back remain. It is by no means guaranteed. It could easily make matters worse. And even if it did come back remain which government could then implement staying? Its not going to happen. Its too risky.
We don't have a remain government anywhere. They have almost all clambered onto leaving come what may (or May)
I, d have a bet May gets her plan past HoC. I wouldn't if Corbyn was backing remain, but he doesn't. He is thinking about backing a 2nd ref, which is sitting on fence... Yet again.
Throughout this Labour have been weak. May, like her or loathe her, has shown resolve and determination. She is going no where, has gained strength and impressed middle England. We are stuck with her, Tories and Brino. Because Labour are useless.
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A fresh GE is my preferred option if MPs vote down TM's deal.
It will make sure that parties and candidate explain and justify their position why they voted down TM's deal.
Actually from the Government's point of view it absolves them of responsibility, and I think that is what will happen if May's deal isn't approved.
What is there to explain that hasn't been already, and falls upon deaf ears?
I did forecast May would get her agreement through, because of the fear factor, not that I approve!
My opinion has as much value of anyone else's of course it's worth Zilch.
As always what the rich want is to have a free hand to exploit the population and keep every penny they have swindled from the Tax man, and May will deliver that.
And why do the rich rule?
It isn't hard to hoodwink a majority of the voters into thinking exactly what they want them to! to put it kindly, people are to a very large extent, Lambs led by Wolves
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But a GE would solve nothing when both major parties are backing leave. They can explain all they wish but it would just mean some other fool trying to negotiate a better deal, which they can't, with less time.
Please explain how a GE solves anything.. Its answering an unasked question.
Yes, I agree. It's no coincidence idiot Carney has been let off his leash.
For the life of me I just don't understand why Labour have not backed remain. Its utter stupidity. They could have walked into no 10 by now. Corbyn is historically the biggest eu sceptic of the lot of them. But Tom refuses to explain his view of all that.. Probably because its inexplicable.? ?
Perhaps Corbyn is a racist with millions stashed away in offshore tax havens???
BTW I don't support May, s vision of Brexit either, but it's the only viable option.Which will be dawning on many MPs over next 10 days.
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Are you trying to be agreeable? just kidding as I don't understand either.
It was but I thought you agreed with a GE as an option. Apologies if you don't.
another referendum will also be advisory.
you have to solve the parliament math problem first.
Having listened to some BBC news and comment yesterday,which I rarely do, just blame the inclement weather, I am starting to be cautionary optimistic that the Deal will be ratified by the UK Parliament. Yes it will be project fear... But not unreasonable fear. There is a serious risk of immediate catastrophic disruption,and a longer term reduced economic growth. .. But why has the British Parliament waited this long before acknowledging these factors.
Dare i say that the Brexiteers ,at least on the public airwaves are engaging in project schmooze, rubbishing the economic analysis from those who are paid to provide sound financial advice. ?
Im modelling their differing leave scenarios, these are the assumed trade agreements
And those highlighted are the NEW trade deals that have already been factored into the Impact modelling of May’s Deal (plus all existing EU 3rd country FTAs).
Just a shade dishonest to model in an assumption that those deals will be in place even remotely soon.
But hey! what's a lie or two, the question is after all "Can the Government (her bit of it) get away with it?
Here's a comment on twitter
Fionna O'Leary #FBPE #BrexitBetraysBritain @fascinatorfun 5h5 hours ago
May’s Impact Assessments massaged the outcomes for May’s model by assuming 18 new major trade deals (inc US, China & India) in place & ALL EU 3rd country FTAs roll over (they have to be renegotiated). So that’s 85 countries in 20 months. 30 negotiators
It would be easier to genetically alter pigs to fly in that time to expect any of the "Talent"
)) we can bring to bear do such a monumental task successfully
In other words May's Cheques leave scenario is an optimistic fantasy, and so are the others
And those highlighted are the NEW trade deals that have already been factored into the Impact modelling of May’s Deal (plus all existing EU 3rd country FTAs).
Just a shade dishonest to model in an assumption that those deals will be in place even remotely soon.
But hey! what's a lie or two, the question is after all "Can the Government (her bit of it) get away with it?
Here's a comment on twitter
Fionna O'Leary #FBPE #BrexitBetraysBritain @fascinatorfun 5h5 hours ago
May’s Impact Assessments massaged the outcomes for May’s model by assuming 18 new major trade deals (inc US, China & India) in place & ALL EU 3rd country FTAs roll over (they have to be renegotiated). So that’s 85 countries in 20 months. 30 negotiators
It would be easier to genetically alter pigs to fly in that time to expect any of the "Talent"
)) we can bring to bear do such a monumental task successfullyIn other words May's Cheques leave scenario is an optimistic fantasy, and so are the others
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It's the trust issue again. People don't trust the establishment to take a decision based on what is best for the country. The establishment has a track record of covering up, hiding fact, lying and acting in their own individual interests. People can't find a way past that and that is why they wanted a Yes / No type vote on the EU. Nigel Farage very successfully tapped into the discontent created by the establishment. Sadly, he has turned out to be no better and immediately deserted the ship he launched when it sank after hitting the water. Trust & credibility in tatters.
Bloomberg report this
The “Meaningful Vote” debate, as it’s become known, will take this form:
The plans were disclosed by a U.K. official who asked not to be identified, because the plans are private. Parliamentary business managers from the different parties are still hammering out the details of how the vote will be held, but the government’s aim is to produce a plan that its opponents, internal and external, can’t object to.
Officials believe that no alternative to May’s option will command a majority in the Commons either, and a series of votes on the amendments could demonstrate that. Labour members are likely to be ordered not to support a second referendum, for example.
If other options are indeed voted down, it will add force to May’s argument that hers is the only way to avoid crashing out of the EU with no deal.
The “Meaningful Vote” debate, as it’s become known, will take this form:
- Starting Tuesday Dec. 4, there will be five days of eight-hour debates, with a break from Dec 7-9.
- Each day’s debate will be led by a different Cabinet minister, focusing discussion on their brief.
- Voting will start at 7 p.m. on Tuesday Dec. 11.
- The Commons will vote on a series of amendments to the government’s motion, likely to include calls for another referendum, or for the government to seek a customs union with the European Union.
- Each vote will take around 15 minutes.
- Finally, the Commons will vote on the government’s motion, including any amendments that passed.
The plans were disclosed by a U.K. official who asked not to be identified, because the plans are private. Parliamentary business managers from the different parties are still hammering out the details of how the vote will be held, but the government’s aim is to produce a plan that its opponents, internal and external, can’t object to.
Officials believe that no alternative to May’s option will command a majority in the Commons either, and a series of votes on the amendments could demonstrate that. Labour members are likely to be ordered not to support a second referendum, for example.
If other options are indeed voted down, it will add force to May’s argument that hers is the only way to avoid crashing out of the EU with no deal.
All the indications are that a second in/out referendum would result in Remain by margin of at least 8%. That's over double the margin the other way last time and whatever the government they'd be obliged to honour that more decisive 12% swing vote, an unusually high swing in any election.
I don't think many leavers wíll have changed their minds, the difference now is for other reasons. Last time, just like Cameron, many were complacent in their belief that Remain would win so didn't bother to vote and as a result had a shock at the result.
They wouldn't make that mistake again so the Remain turnout would be very much larger and more determined. Add to that the minority of Leavers who are fed up with the whole issue so might not vote again and you get a big voting swing. The margin could even be over 10%, a 14% + swing.
.
Maybe get May and Corbyn to perform a Strictly style dance off with a public vote... at least it doesn't clash with Eurovision Song Contest.
Brexit debate: Row over which TV channel will host debate
Brexit debate: Row over which TV channel will host debate