Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

Even the minister doesn't know how...

Employers must check EU nationals' right to work, says minister
Caroline Nokes tells MPs firms will have to check eligibility after a no-deal Brexit – but does not know how

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/30/employers-required-brexit-check-eu-nationals-right-to-work-uk

On second thought, why would we expect any of the ministers to know anything? They have not shown much evidence that they know anything else.

 

[oyster]

Can't blame the Guardian for not reporting negatives about no-deal.

No-deal Brexit would trigger lengthy UK recession, warns S&P

Credit agency warns of property price falls, unemployment doubling and inflation spiking in latest grim forecast

Britain’s economy will suffer rising unemployment and falling household incomes that would trigger a recession should Theresa May fail to secure a deal to prevent the UK crashing out of the European Union next year, according to analysis by the global ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.


Property prices would slump and inflation would spike to more than 5% in a scenario that S&P said had become more likely in recent months following deadlock with Brussels over a post-Brexit deal.


In a warning that included a possible downgrade to the UK’s credit rating, which would bring with it an increase in the Treasury’s borrowing costs, S&P said it still expected both sides in the Brexit talks to come to an agreement before next March, when the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union.

Rest of article:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/30/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-lengthy-uk-recession-warns-sp

 

[oldgroaner]

I have a cunning plan sir, said Baldrick it's very simple really why don't we just swap the words around
Instead of a No Deal brexit

let's call it a No brexit Deal[emoji16]

Shut up you blithering idiot, we are [emoji41]

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[oyster]

I have a cunning plan sir, said Baldrick it's very simple really why don't we just swap the words around
Instead of a No Deal brexit

let's call it a No brexit Deal[emoji16]

Shut up you blithering idiot, we are [emoji41]

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

And I thought it meant that a town in Kent was going to become part of the EU while the rest of the UK left! How dumb can I be.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Some more facts:

- unemployment in the US is 3.8% except... 20 million people who don't work are not counted. In the EU we would say they have fallen through the social safety net, in the US there is no safety net, you are on your own.
- teachers in the US cannot repay student loans and pay rent. So they take a second job like the physics teacher who served as an example who serves in a fast food/greasy spoon whatever, she is 25 years old...

 

[Kudoscycles]

Have just read that Evans cycles have been bought out of administration by Mike Ashley of Sports Direct.
He plans to close half of the stores.
Anyone know why Evans got into trouble?
Wonder which stores will go?
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

Have just read that Evans cycles have been bought out of administration by Mike Ashley of Sports Direct.
He plans to close half of the stores.
Anyone know why Evans got into trouble?
Wonder which stores will go?
KudosDave

Just noticed this
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/evans-cycles-sports-direct-mike-ashley-administration-a8609136.html
"Matt Callaghan, PwC partner and joint administrator for Evans, said: “2018 has been a very difficult trading year for the business, in part due to the impact of the extended winter weather in the early part of the year and a lack of cash to invest in stores and develop the online platform."

There's another mention of them here
https://www.bike-eu.com/sales-trends/nieuws/2018/08/uk-market-sees-strong-growth-in-high-end-e-bikes-10134383?vakmedianet-approve-cookies=1&_ga=2.162694197.820565156.1540975058-1284780096.1540975058
The jury is still out as to whether Evans Cycles, which runs 60 branches across the UK, has continued its poor performance from 2016 when it saw a drastic 58 percent drop in operating profits in the 12 months to the end of October of that year.

 

[oyster]

Just noticed this
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/evans-cycles-sports-direct-mike-ashley-administration-a8609136.html
"Matt Callaghan, PwC partner and joint administrator for Evans, said: “2018 has been a very difficult trading year for the business, in part due to the impact of the extended winter weather in the early part of the year and a lack of cash to invest in stores and develop the online platform."

There is a thread about this started by soundwave.

http://www.pedelecs.co.uk/forum/threads/sports-direct-to-close-evans-cycles-stores-in-rescue-deal.32999/

(Thread might be a bit of a grand term given there is currently only the original post.)

 

[flecc]

Anyone know why Evans got into trouble?

Signs are that they've been in trouble for a long time. They had a store in Croydon, London's largest borough and a popular cycling area, but that had already shut down quietly some while ago. Meanwhile the very large BikePlus continued successfully as did two Halford's branches, a major CycleKing branch and a couple of LBS's.

I think that indicates a lack of competence rather than their excuse of being cash poor, sound businesses can always raise cash and know how to.
.

 

[oyster]

EU prepares for a no-deal Brexit amid lack of progress on talks
EU seminars will cover citizens’ rights, transport, border controls and financial services

 

[Woosh]

Meanwhile the very large BikePlus continued successfully

it goes to show that both size and competence are needed to make a success.
I suspect the root of the problem is how to train staff at local branches to sell when new products are brought in by experts at the head office.

 

[oyster]

Mike Ashley of Sports Direct

Sports Direct worry me on many grounds.

They have sat there acquiring and acquiring over the years - and still are. How come they have the wherewithal to do so?

They must, surely, be approaching or in the area of being a dominant player? That is, they will be in a position not just to compete but to manipulate the market.

(And that is trying to forget the questionable employment practices they have been accused of.)

 

[flecc]

Sports Direct worry me on many grounds.

They have sat there acquiring and acquiring over the years - and still are. How come they have the wherewithal to do so?

They must, surely, be approaching or in the area of being a dominant player? That is, they will be in a position not just to compete but to manipulate the market.

(And that is trying to forget the questionable employment practices they have been accused of.)

The Sports shops have done well in recent years, taking sales from many other areas of retail, like clothing and bikes for example. It's surprising how much can be sold under the sports title.

The bigger they get, the more buying power, so the bigger their margins, enabling expansion with the banks and stock market happy to help a winner.
.

 

[Woosh]

They have sat there acquiring and acquiring over the years - and still are. How come they have the wherewithal to do so?

you don't need much of your own cash to buy public companies.

 

[flecc]

you don't need much of your own cash to buy public companies.

£1 bought BHS.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

Interesting bit in the Guardian
"
The UK will automatically leave the EU on 29 March 2019 unless all 27 member states agree unanimously to a British request to extend article 50.

Lamberts argues that British remainers should accept leaving the EU and campaign for re-entry during the 21-month transition period.

He voiced confidence the EU would fast-track the UK’s re-admission. “This is a special case, where you cannot as EU27 demand full re-application,” he said. “If during the transition a popular majority or a political majority in the House of Commons or House of Lords come to the conclusion that the UK should exit the transition by stepping back into the EU I really do not see how, politically, the EU27 could say ‘no thanks’.”

The UK would already be “100% like a member”, because it applied all EU rules and would be paying into the EU budget, he said. “The only negotiations would be on which conditions the UK would rejoin and of course it would be a hard negotiation, but I do not see how it would fail.”

Many remain campaigners staunchly oppose this strategy because the UK would lose the rebate and have to renegotiate existing special privileges, such as opt-outs on joining the euro and justice and home affairs.

Note the last paragraph

 

[anotherkiwi]

Interesting bit in the Guardian
"
The UK will automatically leave the EU on 29 March 2019 unless all 27 member states agree unanimously to a British request to extend article 50.

Lamberts argues that British remainers should accept leaving the EU and campaign for re-entry during the 21-month transition period.

He voiced confidence the EU would fast-track the UK’s re-admission. “This is a special case, where you cannot as EU27 demand full re-application,” he said. “If during the transition a popular majority or a political majority in the House of Commons or House of Lords come to the conclusion that the UK should exit the transition by stepping back into the EU I really do not see how, politically, the EU27 could say ‘no thanks’.”

The UK would already be “100% like a member”, because it applied all EU rules and would be paying into the EU budget, he said. “The only negotiations would be on which conditions the UK would rejoin and of course it would be a hard negotiation, but I do not see how it would fail.”

Many remain campaigners staunchly oppose this strategy because the UK would lose the rebate and have to renegotiate existing special privileges, such as opt-outs on joining the euro and justice and home affairs.

Note the last paragraph

New EU members must accept joining the Euro

https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/euro-area/enlargement-euro-area/who-can-join-and-when_en

 

[flecc]

New EU members must accept joining the Euro

https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/euro-area/enlargement-euro-area/who-can-join-and-when_en

But we wouldn't be a new member if we reversed our decision during a transition period, since departure would not be complete.

That leaves room for negotiation of the euro compulsion. I agree with Lamberts, the 27 would not exclude us on such a petty point, they like our market too much for that.
.

 

[Woosh]

Lamberts argues that British remainers should accept leaving the EU and campaign for re-entry during the 21-month transition period.

brexit is essentially a conservative party's issue.
If the conservatives lose power before March 29th, a new government would seek to extend A50.
The best scenario is for the ERG to vote down TM's withdrawal deal forcing her to call a general election. If she loses, brexit may be reversed by a Labour party.

 

[Woosh]

Dominic Raab expects to finalise brexit deal in 3 weeks or less.
One credible suggestion about the Irish border: we don't check goods coming from the South, the ROI will check goods coming from the North, everyone can claim victory.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/Exiting-the-European-Union/17-19/Correspondence/2018-10-24-SoS-to-Chair-17-19.pdf