Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

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I heard just now the IMF have declared that no matter in what guise it appears Brexit is inferior for the UK compared to Full membership of the EU
Lamont (moving to France shortly) said "She's only saying that because she comes from an EU country"
Forgetting the inconvenient truth that we all do, including him, and to make it even worse he's moving out of the UK into France!
 
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Woosh

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Danidl

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the EU could have agreed on a time limited backstop on the question of NI border.
There is no reason why it cannot be time limited, a future government in the North or in the South can modify the GFA.
No. The GFA can only be resinded or modified by the sovereign governments of both the UK and Ireland acting together.. and we are in no mood to be bullied on this. The Irish people modified by formal referendum it's own consitution to facilitate the GFA.
 

Danidl

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The EU can show as much intransigeance as it likes, the inconvenient truth is there must be a deal on NI border or there is no deal and ROI will lose big time next April. When it comes to the crunch, the EU will concede.
The only inconvenient truth is that both RoI and UK and particularly NI will all suffer.The only point at issue is how much.
As it currently stands the eu is attempting as far as it can to accommodate the UK wishes.
 

Woosh

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No. The GFA can only be resinded or modified by the sovereign governments of both the UK and Ireland acting together.. and we are in no mood to be bullied on this. The Irish people modified by formal referendum it's own consitution to facilitate the GFA.
the GFA is at risk of being a collateral damage if the UK distances herself from the bloc, for example, if the UK goes for a Canada style FTA. Both governments will be forced to revise the agreement.
 

Woosh

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As it currently stands the eu is attempting as far as it can to accommodate the UK wishes.
no, it doesn't. It uses the Irish border to force a 'deal or no deal' gambit in the UK instead of looking for common interests and seek to retain a close relationship.
If it goes wrong, the UK will have BJ for PM.

Apparently, the EU has already secretly agreed with TM a solution for the Irish border. The wording is about protecting the single market by doing checks at either departure point or arrival point and keep the border clear of checkpoints. The Customs forces will be able to mesh together for cross border spot checks.
 
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flecc

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https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0805/983243-brexit-deal-eu/
Arguing EU has been anything other than awkward during negotiations is quite silly. (reply for Danidl, but no doubt OG will answer)
Why do I have to keep pointing this out? There's no intransigence, the EU are merely asking us to stick to the rules we previously agreed. We signed up to those rules and they apply if we leave.

We are being ridiculous in asking for a special deal that leaves us as well off as being in but not paying anything for it. Of course they can't agree that, all 27 would like that too but it's impossible.
.
 
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Fingers

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No it didn't but yours certainly has as usual, you really should check before commenting
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/19/camerons-eu-deal-what-he-wanted-and-what-he-got
Emergency brake
What Cameron wanted: A four-year freeze on in-work benefits for EU citizens working in the UK. Ahead of the summit, David Cameron made a crucial concession that the changes would not apply to EU workers already in Britain, only to new arrivals.

This left one problem to solve at the summit: how long Britain could keep special rules in place. The British government wanted to keep the emergency brake in place for 13 years, but the Visegrád group of four central European countries (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) arrived at the summit with a starting bid of five years.

What he’s got: The consensus settled on seven years, which matches the time period other western countries had to keep eastern Europeans out of their labour markets. Britain was one of a handful of countries that allowed eastern European workers into its labour market, after the EU enlargement of 2004. The seven-year emergency brake cannot be extended.

Child benefits
What Cameron wanted: Before the negotiations got serious, Cameron wanted to stop all payments of child benefit going to children living outside the UK, whose parents are working in the UK. Ahead of the summit, the UK relaxed this demand, so child benefit would merely be indexed to the standard of living in the country where the offspring are based. Despite this concession – and the relatively small sums at stake – child benefits caused one of the biggest rows at the summit, as the Visegrád countries opposed other countries taking advantage.

What he’s got: Child benefit payments will be indexed to the cost of living for children living outside the UK, under new EU legislation. This will apply to new arrivals to the UK, once legislation has been passed, and to all workers from 1 January 2020.

Stronger protection for non-euro v eurozone
What Cameron wanted: Safeguards to protect countries outside the eurozone against regulation made by those inside was at the top of prime minister’s wishlist in the Bloomberg speech. Specifically, he wanted any non-eurozone country to be able to stall new regulations for the currency union, by triggering further discussions among EU leaders of the proposals.

What he’s got: In a surprising win for Cameron, only one euro ‘out’ will be able to force a debate among EU leaders about ‘problem’ eurozone laws. Other EU leaders agreed to this because neither the UK, nor any other country, would have a veto. The tactic can be used to delay, but not to stop eurozone laws.

Ever-closer union
What Cameron wanted: a declaration that the treaty motto of “ever closer union among the peoples of Europe” did not apply to the UK. EU leaders had already agreed a special formula of wording in June 2014 that not all member states were on the road to integration, but Cameron wanted something stronger.

What he’s got: Much more emphatic language, stressing that the UK is not on the road to deeper integration. “It is recognised that the United Kingdom ... is not committed to further political integration in the European Union ... References to ever-closer union do not apply to the United Kingdom.”

You really should look before you leap,people not doing so are the reason that the mistake of Brexit came about.

Tbf you are mostly right. Although it does depend what paper you quote of course.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/eu-deal-what-david-cameron-asked-for-and-what-he-actually-got/

My recollection was that he got bugger all. Which is also right but I forgot that he actually went and asked for bugger all.

But yes in this instance I was incorrect.
 
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Danidl

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no, it doesn't. It uses the Irish border to force a 'deal or no deal' gambit in the UK instead of looking for common interests and seek to retain a close relationship.
If it goes wrong, the UK will have BJ for PM.

Apparently, the EU has already secretly agreed with TM a solution for the Irish border. The wording is about protecting the single market by doing checks at either departure point or arrival point and keep the border clear of checkpoints. The Customs forces will be able to mesh together for cross border spot checks.
.. i have already commented on whether the rest of the eu cares who or what party governs in the uk.
If there is a secret deal ,how do you know? And more importantly there is no deal .At best there are proposals which need to be voted on by the eu parliament. Ireland would be lobbying at that vote.
My radio reports today that eu staff have been trying today to create proposals which might work, but cannot succeed.
 
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Woosh

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If there is a secret deal ,how do you know?
it's been reported on a few websites, including politico.eu and the Daily Express!
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1018586/brexit-latest-news-britain-european-union-withdrawal-agreement-irish-border
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-big-bang-is-coming-special-summit-brussels-november/

PS: the Pound is at its highest against the dollar since 26-July. Currently at $1.315
If it keeps rising, I'll have to cut my prices next March!
 
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Danidl

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Thank you but Actually that is only one source.. the daily express is using the information from politico. If you read the politico article carefully, it , does not actually say a deal is done, rather that 80 to 95% of an agreed set of proposals have been set up. ..and any way a deal cannot be done without the EU parliament. The only fact it suggests is that it is getting to crunch time.
The error constantly being made is that the UK is the only party to satisfy.. a case of empty vessels making more noise. ,And it's not. Mr Barnier has to bring his proposal to the EU
 

Woosh

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.and any way a deal cannot be done without the EU parliament.
the DE's article contains some extra quotes from unnamed EU officials, twitter also has a few titbits like the the deal that allows Irish containers and trucks to cross the UK to Calais using existing routes. That in itself implies that there is an agreed mechanism to deal with customs checks.
let's be realistic, I don't think a deal agreed by the Commission would be opposed in the EP.
 
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oyster

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  • Anti-Brexit campaigners have claimed that, even if everyone who voted in the 2016 EU referendum were to vote the same way again, demographic changes mean that the UK population will have a remain majority by 29 March 2019, when the UK leaves. Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president, has done the analysis for the People’s Vote campaign, which wants a referendum on the final Brexit deal. His analysis involves looking at how the people voted in 2016 and then calculating how population changes - the death of mostly older voters, based on average death rates, and the fact that people who were too young to vote two years ago are now over 18 - will have altered the mix. It assumes people would vote as they did in 2016, and does not take into account evidence showing there has, separately, been a slight shift to remain. There is a very strong correlation between being older and voting leave, and previously Kellner calculated that the crossover point - the moment when remain would outnumber leave, assuming everyone still alive voted as they did two years ago - would come in November next year. But in the light of new polling showing that the “new voters” (people who are 18 or 19 now) are even more pro-remain than assumed has led him to conclude the the crossover point will come on 19 January next year. Kellner said:
YouGov’s latest figures tell us how those who were not yet 18 last time would vote now. Those who say they are certain to vote divide seven-to-one for remain. This matters statistically: for it helps to explain why demographic factors alone will cause the UK this winter to switch from a leave country to a remain country.

Because this cross-over point occurs before March 29, 2019 – when the UK is due to leave the EU – it means the British public’s view of Brexit will have changed even without anyone who voted two years changing their mind. Young people who were not eligible to vote in 2016 and can do so now make it much harder for anyone to claim that Brexit is still the ‘will of the people’.

Older voters are just as keen on leaving the EU as they were two years ago, younger voters are moving even more strongly into the remain camp – and the very youngest voters back continued membership of the EU by a remarkable margin. It is very rare for a significant demographic group to support one side so overwhelmingly on an issue that splits the nation down the middle.

What is more, young voters are the ones who will still be dealing with the long-term consequences of the current Brexit drama in ten or 20 years’ time, long after many leave voters have gone. Today’s young voters are making clear that they want a pro-European inheritance – and are ready to stand up and be counted, in a fresh public vote.
 

oyster

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oldgroaner

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Zatlan, .. using a honest report rte, of a biassed person, reported from another biassed paper, is not a very convincing argument.
Agreed.his consistency in providing unconvincing arguments is however unparalleled, that's what I like about his style
He came to Drain the Swamp,
and has done wonders in
Swamping the Drains.;)
 

oldgroaner

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Perhaps not much of a surprise - nonetheless quite interesting to see specific breakdowns by newspaper.

Only a quarter of Mail readers think UK will get good Brexit deal
Major survey finds newspaper readers sceptical of Brexiters’ ability to deliver on promises

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/17/only-a-quarter-of-mail-readers-think-uk-will-get-good-brexit-deal
My goodness! I am truly astonished by two things
  1. One quarter are Romantics
  2. Three quarters imagine they know what is happening
 
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