Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

it's OK for a future government to reverse brexit and rejoin the EU too by the same token.
All we need at the moment is for the impacts to be understood so that when a definitive deal is struck sometime within the next two years, a clear margin to emerge.

The passage of time will often reveal things that need changing, updating, improving. That much is life.

Going into brexit already threatening (or promising?) to change the agreement on which it was based is seems to be very different and very much less acceptable.

 

[Woosh]

Going into brexit already

we are not in brexit until there is an agreed deal. March is only an intermediary step when we are free to look elsewhere while not much has changed and reversal is still possible.
Voters will quickly see (after March):

- if and when there are benefits in brexit
- who is telling the truth

 

[oldgroaner]

Whatever brexit is now or on 29/03/2019, it might well mean something else, indeterminate and unknown, in the future. OK sounds wonderful. Let's all vote for the never-ending turmoil and changes...

Chequers deal could be undone after Britain leaves EU, claims Gove

Environment secretary says Theresa May’s plan is ‘right one for now’ to ensure Brexit

MPs could undo the Chequers deal once the UK has left the EU, Michael Gove has claimed, saying the prime minister’s proposal was the “right one for now”.


The environment secretary, a prominent Brexiter, has regularly made a similar case in private to MPs, urging them to back May to see through Britain’s exit rather than risk an impasse in parliament or a general election.


If the EU changed its rules to disadvantage Britain, he said, it would be up to parliament to “chart this nation’s destiny” and potentially change the relationship, he said.

Asked if the prime minister’s plan was permanent, he told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: “Yes, but there’s one critical thing, a future prime minister could always choose to alter the relationship between Britain and the European Union.


“But the Chequers approach is the right one for now because we have got to make sure that we respect that vote and take advantage of the opportunities of being outside the European Union.”


Gove said the UK had shown flexibility and that it was now for the EU to show some willingness to compromise.


“I’ve compromised,” he added. “I’ve been quite clear that some of the things that I argued for in the referendum passionately, as a result of Chequers I have to qualify one or two of my views. I have to acknowledge the parliamentary arithmetic.


“I believe the critical thing is making sure we leave in good order with a deal which safeguards the referendum mandate.”

It is OK for the brexit mob to accept a deal then change it. But not OK for leavers to maintain, consistently, that they do not want to leave. You can be pretty sure that we won't be asked whether we'd like future changes - whoever we are - other than if a GE is coming up.

Gollum clearly doesn't give a damn for the opinions of the Brexit Voters who believed in him, or he wouldn't have championed "The Will of the People" only to ditch it over the side in favour of expediency

"I have to qualify one or two of my views. I have to acknowledge the parliamentary arithmetic."

Turncoat!

 

[Danidl]

we are not in brexit until there is an agreed deal. March is only an intermediary step when we are free to look elsewhere while not much has changed and reversal is still possible.
Voters will quickly see (after March):

- if and when there are benefits in brexit
- who is telling the truth

I am sorry to prick your balloon, but... March is not an intermediate step. It is the end,finite, Fini, unless an agreement of some sort has been reached. An agreement that the EU .. qualified majority voting, finds acceptable. Whether the UK have a parliamentary debate is interesting but not relevent. Indeed whether the UK has another Referendum is actually irrelevant.
I have been Saying this since A50, and there is a fantasy about it.. which I am afraid you have bought into that wishful thinking.

Failure to have an agreement that satisfies the eu parliament, means UK out, hard brexiT,and only a unanimous decision of 27 can reverse it. ..The 27 includes countries which are not greatly affected,or may have axes to grind with GB

 

[Woosh]

I am sorry to prick your balloon,

you haven't.
April is the starting date where negotiation about the future relationship can theoretically start. Before that, the political declaration in the withdrawal treaty has no legal value.
I reckon it will take a lot longer to sort out a bespoke free trade deal than 2 years of transition, unless the UK wants one of the existing formulas. The conservative party's priority is to sort out who will lead them in the next GE before real negotiation begins. That will take at least 4 months, we would be looking at October 2019 to have an idea what the conservatives want for the future.

 

[Danidl]

you haven't.
April is the starting date where negotiation about the future relationship can theoretically start. Before that, the political declaration in the withdrawal treaty has no legal value.
I reckon it will take a lot longer to sort out a bespoke free trade deal than 2 years of transition, unless the UK wants one of the existing formulas. The conservative party's priority is to sort out who will lead them in the next GE before real negotiation begins. That will take at least 4 months, we would be looking at October 2019 to have an idea what the conservatives want for the future.

Despite the amount of internal discussion, I along with some 400 milion others have no interest in what the Conservatives or Labour want or which faction is in charge in the UK. The legal situation changes on 12.00 midnight on 29th March!.

 

[oyster]

Failure to have an agreement that satisfies the eu parliament, means UK out, hard brexiT,and only a unanimous decision of 27 can reverse it.

I agree with you.

Even with an agreement, it is an agreement about how the process will go and, at the outside, a very temporary, short-term extension of membership.

March-May 2019: Brexit day


In theory, the UK could be out of the EU on 29 March 2019. Extending talks can only be done by the unanimous agreement of the 27 countries. Many countries support Barnier’s view that the UK must be out before European parliament elections in May or June 2019.

 

[oyster]

Going a bit off-topic (is that possible on this thread?), an interesting example of what goes around, comes around, possibly.

Katie Hopkins applies for insolvency agreement to avoid bankruptcy

Jack Monroe, who won a libel action against columnist, says ‘it’s sad two tweets cost Hopkins her house, job and credit rating’

Controversial commentator Katie Hopkins, who once said poor people in debt have no one else to blame but themselves, has applied for an insolvency agreement in a bid to avoid bankruptcy following a costly libel case involving the food writer Jack Monroe.


Last year, the rightwing broadcaster was ordered to pay hundreds of thousands of pounds in damages and legal costs after she sent tweets in 2015 which falsely implied Monroe backed the defacement of war memorials by protestors.


Monroe originally asked for Hopkins to apologise and donate £5,000 to a migrants’ charity or she would sue. But Hopkins – who had confused Monroe with the columnist Laurie Penny – refused to back down, resulting in a costly court case, with the commentator forced to pay £24,000 in damages and a substantially larger sum in legal costs.

Rest of article:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/sep/16/katie-hopkins-applies-for-insolvency-to-avoid-bankruptcy-after-jack-monroe-twitter-costly-libel-case

 

[Woosh]

Despite the amount of internal discussion, I along with some 400 milion others have no interest in what the Conservatives or Labour want or which faction is in charge in the UK. The legal situation changes on 12.00 midnight on 29th March!.

it's already changed sine A50 was triggered but the future relationship is still to be decided.
I guess that the UK will seek to extend the transition period until a bespoke FTA is agreed.

 

[Danidl]

it's already changed sine A50 was triggered but the future relationship is still to be decided.
I guess that the UK will seek to extend the transition period until a bespoke FTA is agreed.

.. no up to 29 march, it is still " phony war " territory, after then it's legal.

At present the UK can seek an extension, and it can be granted only by the EU parliament..using qualified majority voting, so you and I could reasonably hope for a favourable result. On 30th March it's all 27 unanimous, .. a forlorn hope.

 

[Woosh]

where you and I may agree albeit not for the same reasons is that the UK will leave the EU on the 29th March like projected and brexit won't be reversed.
Voting for the conservatives last year has put the UK on the path for brexit until the next GE or the GE after that. Eventually, voters will choose at some time in the future a pro EU party that will reverse brexit.
That may be a long wait.

 

[oyster]

Nick Robinson in Chesterfield on BBC1 10 p.m. news. Quite well done trying to answer why brexit is taking so long.

BJ and the rest, no they didn't have a plan either because that might have put people off voting for brexit. What madness!

 

[Woosh]

Boris Johnson: "We are heading for a car crash Brexit."

I wonder what BJ thinks his part in it was.

 

[oyster]

Boris Johnson: "We are heading for a car crash Brexit."

I wonder what BJ thinks his part in it was.

Prince of Arragon in the Merchant of Venice might suit?

 

[Danidl]

where you and I may agree albeit not for the same reasons is that the UK will leave the EU on the 29th March like projected and brexit won't be reversed.
Voting for the conservatives last year has put the UK on the path for brexit until the next GE or the GE after that. Eventually, voters will choose at some time in the future a pro EU party that will reverse brexit.
That may be a long wait.

I do agree with you... Highly reluctant to have to agree, but the logic is compelling.

 

[Fingers]

We’re doomed I tell yer. DOOMED!

 

[oldgroaner]

Quote from a female business leader commenting of the papers on BBC news this morning.
"Clearly the Brexit promises aren't going to be delivered" "business need certainly" , "Let's get on with it anyway!"

Future historians will look back and ponder the madness of this time.
Why, when there was absolutely no sane purpose is so doing, and no one had a clue of the repercussions of Brexit, did we continue with this Farce?

 

[oldgroaner]

In the Daily Mail this morning
"
It's NOT novichok, say police: 'Russian' couple fall ill at Salisbury restaurant with nerve-agent symptoms sparking panic as police in hazmat suits keep terrified diners in isolation for HOURS before giving the all-clear

• Italian restaurant was put on lockdown after couple became sick at Italian diner
• 'Their symptoms were consistent with novichok poisoning,' police sources said
• Man 'had a fit in the toilet' and blonde woman 'was hysterical', witness revealed
• Diner who initially called the police said the scene was 'like Armageddon'
• Another witness said ill pair were Russian, but that hasn't been confirmed
• It comes just six months after Sergei Skripal and daughter Yulia collapsed in Zizi

The readers comments are illuminating, they clearly reacted in panic to an earlier report that indicated another Novichoc attack, clearly the article they reacted to was very different to the one currently in the paper!

The Daily Mail simply printed out of date readers comments as "Click bait"

The real question is......what did cause these "Novichoc like symptoms" and who or what caused them?

 

[Woosh]

Quote from a female business leader commenting of the papers on BBC news this morning.
"Clearly the Brexit promises aren't going to be delivered" "business need certainly" , "Let's get on with it anyway!"

she is a good loser and a practical businesswoman.

 

[Woosh]

Why, when there was absolutely no sane purpose is so doing, and no one had a clue of the repercussions of Brexit, did we continue with this Farce?

out of fear.
a lot of people are convinced that the EU is a leaky boat, that will sink with debts and refugees.
They trust BJ more than Vince Cable.
fear is usually illogical, so is trust.