Brexit, for once some facts.

[anotherkiwi]

LOL...

ROI don`t want Border checks

They are part of the EU, they don't want them but may soon need them

N.I. don`t want Border checks

They didn't vote in the majority to leave the EU IIRC

U.K. Gov. don`t want border check

Nobody knows what they really want... Oh yeah cake and more cake or something like that.

so who does that leave?

Yep, Bellend Barnier... let him and the EU go ahead and put in border checks!

...and Good luck with that one!

M. Barnier is a negotiator, he doesn't make the decisions, those are made by democratically elected politicians. The EU will put in border checks if they have to to stop the UK dumping cheap imported crap.

 

[flecc]

ROI don`t want Border checks
N.I. don`t want Border checks
U.K. Gov. don`t want border check

I certainly understand.

One and two don't want checks and will be administering their border.

And three who doesn't want checks is the authority to ensure we carry them out.

So with only the EU wanting checks but no-one co-operating in doing them, I make that 3 -1 in favour of "virtual reality" checks.
.

 

[Danidl]

I certainly understand.

One and two don't want checks and will be administering their border.

And three who doesn't want checks is the authority to ensure we carry them out.

So with only the EU wanting checks but no-one co-operating in doing them, I make that 3 -1 in favour of "virtual reality" checks.
.

Slight correction
RoI do not want uk to exit eu
ROI do not want border checks on the island of ireland .. a slight correction but a big difference

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

I certainly understand.

One and two don't want checks and will be administering their border.

And three who doesn't want checks is the authority to ensure we carry them out.

So with only the EU wanting checks but no-one co-operating in doing them, I make that 3 -1 in favour of "virtual reality" checks.
.

But... and its a big BUT. Not wanting something, and needing to have something is very different.

1 and 2 not wanting checks does not mean that they won't have to have them if 3 pulls 2 out of the customs union / single market.

There is simply no way to avoid them. 3 and the EU will have to make it happen... even if 1, 2, 3 and the EU don't want them.

They can't not do it, otherwise the systems fall apart and the UK / EU border will become a smugglers paradise, which will lead to the border needing to be down the Irish Sea... which 2 & 3 don't want.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Personally I would like to see the UK border moved from Calais to Dover...

 

[flecc]

But... and its a big BUT. Not wanting something, and needing to have something is very different.

1 and 2 not wanting checks does not mean that they won't have to have them if 3 pulls 2 out of the customs union / single market.

There is simply no way to avoid them. 3 and the EU will have to make it happen... even if 1, 2, 3 and the EU don't want them.

They can't not do it, otherwise the systems fall apart and the UK / EU border will become a smugglers paradise, which will lead to the border needing to be down the Irish Sea... which 2 & 3 don't want.

All true, but I see a classic Irish behaviour compromise resulting.

It will look as though the border is well run, but there will in fact be flexibility to suit circumstances.

That may be what Tommie meant by " Best of luck with that".
.

 

[Woosh]

Just like if we voted for 5 day weekends, and 2 day weeks.

I'd be for it.

 

[oldgroaner]

what part don`t you understand?

I can break it down into simple sentences to try and help you??

You did and it made no sense whatever, did it?
Here's a simple sentence to help you.
The rules will be made by the EU because they own them.

 

[oldgroaner]

But then, as someone once said, everything seems simple to simple people.

OTT warning! You need to aim much lower to hit this mark!

 

[oldgroaner]

sometimes people look at too many variables and give up.
you can abstract brexit to just one word: take back control.
the rest can be sorted out by experts.

Actually that's three by my count, but I'll try to use one word

"SelfEmbuggerment"

Sounds about right to me.

 

[Kudoscycles]

It’s looking increasingly likely that we may just leave with no deal.
Forgetting all the clever ideas I wonder what will happen to the first truck that moves from Dover to Calais and /or the first truck that moves from Calais to Dover,on March 30,2019
Similarly I wonder what will happen to the first trucks that move across the Irish border.
There isn’t any way that either the U.K. or the EU are going to get customs checks in place,there just isn’t time.
My guess is that in practice nothing will change and we will carry on exactly as we do today....the aircraft will continue to fly,the banks will carry on trading and Davis and Barnier will carry on arguing.
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

It’s looking increasingly likely that we may just leave with no deal.
Forgetting all the clever ideas I wonder what will happen to the first truck that moves from Dover to Calais and /or the first truck that moves from Calais to Dover,on March 30,2019
Similarly I wonder what will happen to the first trucks that move across the Irish border.
There isn’t any way that either the U.K. or the EU are going to get customs checks in place,there just isn’t time.
My guess is that in practice nothing will change and we will carry on exactly as we do today....the aircraft will continue to fly,the banks will carry on trading and Davis and Barnier will carry on arguing.
KudosDave

As they watch the trucks carrying the machine tools, dismantled assembly lines and Robots from the Nissan works in Sunderland head south for the Channel Ports.
Just another usual day, as you say......

 

[Danidl]

It’s looking increasingly likely that we may just leave with no deal.
Forgetting all the clever ideas I wonder what will happen to the first truck that moves from Dover to Calais and /or the first truck that moves from Calais to Dover,on March 30,2019
Similarly I wonder what will happen to the first trucks that move across the Irish border.
There isn’t any way that either the U.K. or the EU are going to get customs checks in place,there just isn’t time.
My guess is that in practice nothing will change and we will carry on exactly as we do today....the aircraft will continue to fly,the banks will carry on trading and Davis and Barnier will carry on arguing.
KudosDave

Current wisdom, is that the UK wants nothing to change during the indeterminate transition period. An assumption that they can continue to trade on the world stage, as if they were still a functioning part of the EU . As Barnier essentially said that's ok by us, provide you don't deviate from our current everything, but we cannot talk for the 100 other economies with whom we have agreements,and we will not be supporting you in such negotiations.... Once you start to deviate all bets are off... of least that's my reading of what he was saying.

I would hope the planes will fly, that nuclear materials will transit, etc but I would not be sure. The question is simple ... Who will take responsibility?. If the treaties are no longer in force , no French official can sign off on medical isotopes going to the uk. I believe it would be illegal and perhaps treasonous.

 

[oldgroaner]

An interesting Reader's comment in the Independent
"

8 minutes ago
sceptic64
Someone once said this: "There is a proper role for referendums in constitutional change, but only if done properly. If it is not done properly, it can be a dangerous tool. The Chairman of the Public Administration Committee...said that Clement Attlee...famously described the referendum as the device of demagogues and dictators. We may not always go as far as he did, but what is certain is that pre-legislative referendums ...are the worst type of all.

Referendums should be held when the electorate are in the best possible position to make a judgment. They should be held when people can view all the arguments for and against and when those arguments have been rigorously tested. In short, referendums should be held when people know exactly what they are getting.

So legislation should be debated by Members of Parliament on the Floor of the House, and then put to the electorate for the voters to judge.

We should not ask people to vote on a blank sheet of paper and tell them to trust us to fill in the details afterwards. For referendums to be fair and compatible with our parliamentary process, we need the electors to be as well informed as possible and to know exactly what they are voting for. Referendums need to be treated as an addition to the parliamentary process, not as a substitute for it."

David Davis , November 2002. Before his brain was removed."

Hypocrite is an inadequate word to Describe a man that would express this point of view and then deliberately write a Bill to promote such a Referendum to further his agenda under the very circumstances he had in the past so thoroughly denigrated

One to beam up Mr Spock. please drop him off somewhere else!

 

[oldtom]

Personally I would like to see the UK border moved from Calais to Dover...

I agree with that entirely.

Apart from the fact that we should never have expected the French to exercise control on behalf of the UK by preventing migrants of whatever description from exiting France en route the UK, it is clearly a major plank of the risible notion that we are taking back control.

How an open border across Ireland can be reconciled with the aims of the EU states is beyond me - it simply cannot work and to ensure compliance, the EU, in concert with the Irish government, will need to implement measures to ensure a hard, physical border is in place, with all that entails. Clearly, the UK government also must have an obligation towards the same end - after all, it was the UK government which implemented the course we have embarked upon by triggering A50 and in any case, didn't someone famously state, time after time after time, 'Brexit means Brexit!'

If rules are to be bent (or entirely shredded), should Ireland be deemed a special case, then London, Scotland and Gibraltar must also be entitled to special treatment. Anything less would simply be unfair and more than a little discriminatory.

As the months have passed, the future prospects for the UK after 'Brexit' have become less and less attractive, to the point today where we are rapidly moving towards a situation where 'Brexit' will become irreversible and UK Ltd will become very quickly, a rotting carcass to be picked over by venture capitalists hoping to find the odd shred of material from which a profit can be turned.

Tom

 

[Woosh]

Forgetting all the clever ideas I wonder what will happen to the first truck that moves from Dover to Calais and /or the first truck that moves from Calais to Dover,on March 30,2019
Similarly I wonder what will happen to the first trucks that move across the Irish border.
There isn’t any way that either the U.K. or the EU are going to get customs checks in place,there just isn’t time.

don't bother about the trucks. There will be huge queues at the Channel Tunnel ports and forget about bringing back cheap booze or taking your pot plants to your holiday home on the continent.

 

[Danidl]

I agree with that entirely.

Apart from the fact that we should never have expected the French to exercise control on behalf of the UK by preventing migrants of whatever description from exiting France en route the UK, it is clearly a major plank of the risible notion that we are taking back control.

How an open border across Ireland can be reconciled with the aims of the EU states is beyond me - it simply cannot work and to ensure compliance, the EU, in concert with the Irish government, will need to implement measures to ensure a hard, physical border is in place, with all that entails. Clearly, the UK government also must have an obligation towards the same end - after all, it was the UK government which implemented the course we have embarked upon by triggering A50 and in any case, didn't someone famously state, time after time after time, 'Brexit means Brexit!'

If rules are to be bent (or entirely shredded), should Ireland be deemed a special case, then London, Scotland and Gibraltar must also be entitled to special treatment. Anything less would simply be unfair and more than a little discriminatory.

As the months have passed, the future prospects for the UK after 'Brexit' have become less and less attractive, to the point today where we are rapidly moving towards a situation where 'Brexit' will become irreversible and UK Ltd will become very quickly, a rotting carcass to be picked over by venture capitalists hoping to find the odd shred of material from which a profit can be turned.

Tom

The difference between Ireland and those other regions you mention is that Ireland is the subject of the Anglo Irish agreement, basically an international treaty, lodged in the UN etc etc so is a special case. It is not in the gift of the uk parliament to renage on it.
It is just one of the 100s of details that were not considered and cannot be wished away.
Now i am not saying that those other regions might not also have just cause for grievances.

 

[oyster]

I wonder what will happen

Yes - me too. And to the passport checks on Eurostars - including the newly-announced London - Amsterdam.

 

[Wicky]

Yes - me too. And to the passport checks on Eurostars - including the newly-announced London - Amsterdam.

Hide in the bog and hope the inspector goes away - bit like Brexit...

 

[oldgroaner]

From the Independent.
Forget Project Fear
We now have Project ABJECT TERROR!

British economy will suffer £252bn hit if Theresa May crashes UK out of the EU with no deal, analysis shows
Exclusive: Research – based on the Government’s own leaked analysis – is said to fully expose the 'Brexit black hole at heart of the economy'
The British economy will suffer a £252bn hit if Theresa May carries out her threat to leave the European Union with no deal, a new analysis of official forecasts shows.

A no-deal Brexit would see GDP plunge by more than a quarter of a trillion pounds over 15 years, according to the study shared with The Independent.

Less damaging exit terms, under which Britain would secure a free trade agreement with the rest of the EU, would still result in national output being £131bn lower over the same period.
And even a Government U-turn – leaving the UK in the EU single market and customs union – would swipe £52bn from economic growth, the calculation says.

The Best for Britain Group, which is campaigning to halt Brexit, said its research – based on the Government’s own leaked analysis – fully exposed the “Brexit black hole at heart of the economy”.

“Sadly, now we are seeing the economic analysis becoming project fact and it means that we are facing a massive Brexit blow,” said Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, the organisation’s chairman."
This week, Theresa May’s spokesperson insisted the Prime Minister was committed to Brexit even if MPs vote down any deal she brings back, saying: “We are definitely leaving the European Union.”

Leaving with a Canada-style free trade agreement would see growth cut by 5 per cent which, the study says, which would mean a GDP loss of £130.8bn.

Meanwhile, staying inside the single market would reduce growth by 2 per cent – or GDP by £52.3bn, Best for Britain calculated.

Lord Mallach-Brown added: “This Government are not competent to deal with the challenges ahead. They are going to hit people in the pocket through their hapless handling of Brexit. Starkly, we are facing a Brexit bombshell for the economy.”

The organisation – which hit the headlines when it was revealed it is partly funded by billionaire financier George Soros – also calculated the hit to the public finances implied by the Government’s analysis.

It found tax revenue would plunge by £82.4bn over 15 years under a no-deal Brexit, by £42.7bn with a free trade agreement and by £17.1bn if there is a “soft Brexit”.
The first figure is almost identical to that set out in the Whitehall papers, according to some MPs who viewed them, bolstering the case for the Best for Britain projections.

The document also set out which regions will be hit the hardest, with the Leave-voting North-east of England and West Midlands expected to be the worst affected.

In a further blow to the Government, it also warned that the gains from free trade deals with other big countries would fail to compensate – a boost of just 0.2 per cent over 15 years from a deal with the US, for example.


My goodness! of course by now none of us know truth from Fiction any more, do we?

Brexit looks Russian Roulette with only one EMPTY chamber in the Revolver