Brexit, for once some facts.

oldtom

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23844850_923478577811063_3603264395936569889_n.jpg

This quote is from Captain Beatty, when he is explaining some of the history of the future society to Montag. His explanations are entirely from the perspective that the changes in society have been good, and so he is perfectly fine with the idea of an ignorant populace and a massively controlling government.

"If you don't want a man unhappy politically, don't give him two sides to a question to worry him; give him one. Better yet, give him none. Let him forget there is such a thing as war. If the Government is inefficient, top-heavy, and tax-mad, better it be all those than that people worry over it."

Beatty's statement explains how to control the populace through selective information and education; make sure that the people don't understand that there could be other positions or solutions, and they will come to depend on the government for all their needs. "Give one side, or none," so that only the government's side is seen as correct, and all others are seen as deviant or criminal. Through these policies, the populace evolves from seeking out diversity of opinion to accepting and promoting a single view of society and legality; no one thinks to question the system partially because they are punished (by the firemen), and partially because they now view the system as deified, above all reproach.


Ring any bells with anyone?

Tom
 
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oldgroaner

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You have to wonder how long this will take to sink in with the Brexit Voters still keen on the idea

Voting Brexit result: according the Chancellor of the Exchequer there will be pay cuts for the next 17 years
 
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oldgroaner

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A little off topic humour from the New York Post
"
Time magazine has flatly denied telling President Trump that he was “probably” going to be crowned their “Person of the Year.”

Offended that he wasn’t being absolutely assured of the honor, Trump earlier fumed that he was removing himself from consideration completely.

“Time Magazine called to say that I was PROBABLY going to be named ‘Man (Person) of the Year,’ like last year, but I would have to agree to an interview and a major photo shoot.

I said probably is no good and took a pass. Thanks anyway!” Trump groused on Twitter Friday.

"He may look like an idiot.................."

It does make you wonder what has become of Democracy's ability to produce adequate leaders when creatures like this (and ours) rise like scum to the top.

The principle of democracy is excellent, but the Press and Propagandists manage to turn the results into something worse than the outcome of a Pheasant crossing the M1 in the rush hour.

Never was so liitle owed to so few by so many!
 
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Woosh

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Voting Brexit result: according the Chancellor of the Exchequer there will be pay cuts for the next 17 years
that is less important than their votes to leave.
 

tommie

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You don't need to tell us,you need to tell the EU. The EU are threatening again saying we have 10 days to progress cash and the Irish border problem. By now someone should have calculated what we owe,less of course what the EU owes us,nobody seems to want to reveal that number,this is not 'grey' money ,this is what is not in dispute.
We should then ask the EU what they want as a border,this should then be considered by Ireland,NI and the U.K. After all,a border has 2 sides why should all the suggestions come from the UK,the EU/Ireland should suggest ideas.
If no border is achieved trade will continue between Ireland and NI,it may not be managed trade but who cares.
It's looking like we are 'crashing out' which so many of the Tory bastards seem to want,I suspect it will be messy but it will put pressure on the EU to get constructive,the EU will be desperate for money without any payments from the UK and have to turn to the rest of the states for more money,the U.K. won't be popular but that is life.
Ps....e-bikes don't run on chicken feed !!!
KudosDave
Interesting analysis by Jeffrey Peel businessman and free-market commentator on the dilemma now facing the ROI,

Ireland and the UK joined the EEC together – should they leave the EU together too?

Brexit has spooked the Irish. In fact, well before the referendum took place last June, the Irish were spooked at even the prospect of Brexit.

In early March last year I attended a Brexit Breakfast addressed by arch-Europhile Ken Clarke, and organised by the AIB Bank. Over 300 business people packed the room at the Dublin Convention Centre. I was one of few Northern Irish in attendance. I think I was the only Leave supporter (apart from the excellent Dr Gerard Lyons who was on the panel). There was a palpable sense of panic at that event. And understandably… the fact is that the Irish and British economies are joined at the hip. The panic was less about the UK leaving the EU. It was more about the UK leaving Ireland.

After all, Ireland’s relationship with the EU, in recent years, has hardly been a bed of roses. Meanwhile the relationship with the United Kingdom has never been better.

The EU’s tendency to tell member states how to behave, grates with the Irish. Remember the Lisbon Treaty vote in 2008? Some 53% of the people of Ireland who voted (an even greater percentage than voted for Brexit) voted to reject the Lisbon Treaty. But the EU was having none of it and insisted that the referendum be held again until the result suited their agenda.

Similarly, the EU, during the bail-out negotiations following the 2008 crash, insisted that the Irish give up their (highly advantageous) corporation tax rates. The Irish, however, held firm and still command a huge share of foreign direct investment (FDI). Similarly, the Dublin government took a dim view when the EU Commission insisted that Apple should repay, to the Irish exchequer, what the Commission deemed to be Apple’s inappropriate tax benefits. The Dublin government considered them to be highly appropriate – to continue attracting big employers like Apple.

But while FDI is important to the Irish economy, the UK is even more important. When the UK leaves the EU some two-thirds of Ireland’s foreign trade will be with English-speaking markets outside the EU. America and the UK are Ireland’s two largest export countries. Now that Ireland is a net contributor to the EU budget, some people are beginning to ask whether Ireland might be better to follow its neighbour and big trading partner out of the EU. After all, both nations joined the EEC together, perhaps they should leave the EU together too.

And, of course, such an arrangement would be ideal for Northern Ireland. Trading between Northern Ireland and the Republic happens across a land border that has no obvious customs posts, despite different VAT rates and different currencies applying in both jurisdictions. But an Irish exit would almost certainly lead to a very rapid trade deal between both nations. Ireland, since it achieved independence from Britain, has always benefited from a Common Travel Area that allows so many of its people to live and work (and even vote) in Britain and Northern Ireland. The CTA could be extended and enhanced if Ireland were to leave the EU.

In October 2016 the Irish Daily Mail published the results of an opinion poll that showed that nearly 40% of Irish people would prefer open borders and free trade with the UK over continued membership of the EU. That’s clearly not a majority of the population but it’s a sizeable percentage. Irish public opinion could move rapidly in the direction of Irish exit if the EU continues its bully-boy tactics and the people of Ireland realise that the EU increasingly represents a drain on Irish taxpayers rather than a provider of never-ending largesse.

Interestingly, while the case for leaving the EU has traditionally come from the right of Irish politics (for example, the Sunday Times columnist and free trade advocate Cormac Lucey has written a book arguing the case for Ireland leaving the Eurozone), those on the left are now adding their voices. People Before Profit Alliance, a hard-left Party active in both Northern Ireland and the Republic, has made clear its support for an Irish exit. It has also made some big gains in recent elections at the expense, mostly, of Sinn Fein.

Anthony Coughlan, the former Associate Professor of Social Policy at Trinity College Dublin, also considered to be from the intellectual left, recently published a report of a study group of Irish economists and constitutional lawyers that “sets out the reasons why ‘Brexit’ when it happens should be accompanied by ‘Irexit’ (Ireland Exit).”

Irexit or not, the fact that Britain will be leaving the EU has obvious consequences for Ireland. The devaluation of the pound alone makes it more difficult for Irish traders (but great for Northern Irish traders in border towns like Newry, who, ironically, were most vocal in their opposition to Brexit). Ireland needs to consider a future that, within the EU, may not make quite as much sense, given the UK’s absence.
 
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Kudoscycles

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I cannot understand why you seek to place the onus on the EU, Dave. We all know what the status quo position was and, indeed, still remains.

The change which is scheduled to come about in March 2019 is the result, not of any action by the EU, but by the desire of the UK to unfriend itself from 27 other sovereign nation states, currently our friends. In the full knowledge of the ramifications of 'Brexit' and the ideals and rules relating to membership of the EU, surely it is incumbent on the UK to ensure a secure border exists around all British territory, thus permitting those states of the EU to continue to enjoy the benefits of membership that we have been party to for decades?

The best deal in town remains full membership and participation at the heart of all EU business so we should not accept anything less just to satisfy a bunch of fascists and their mentally deficient racist supporters right-wing extremist fans.

Tom
Supposedly Brexit is a done deal,whatever happens we are leaving....at least that is what we are told.
The EU seem to want us to stay,I suspect that is primarily about money,we don't know the financial position of the EU,they haven't issued accounts for 17 years,but it would be logical that with only 4 countries putting money in and the rest taking out,they are short of money. This view is reinforced by Tusk,Barnier and Juncker constantly talking about money,everything else seems a side show.
But we are here,if we are leaving then the EU are determined to milk us for as much money as they can or make leaving as unpalatable as possible that we change our mind and keep giving them the £11billion per year.
I have said that if the EU are so determined to keep us then we should ask what deal would they offer if we stayed,that deal may be good enough to satisfy the Brexiters.
I place the onus on the EU because we now are about to enter a trade deal between the UK and EU,I get fed up with May running round like a pet poodle desperate to get any deal at any price,the EU are just sitting back letting her hang herself and our deal position going down the pan,you couldn't imagine Maggie being pushed around like this. We are a big customer of the EU,they want our future business and should be made aware that if they don't start giving us a good deal they are risking a lot of future business,maybe that is happening in the background,who knows?
I think the reason that Hammond is not preparing for a hard Brexit and nobody (EU and UK) is starting to prepare borders/customs at any border is it cannot happen,in the end we will stay in the customs union,maybe named differently,all the current rhetoric is about posturing rather than action,or lack of action. I don't want that I was quite looking forward to bringing product from China into the UK tariff free,especially with the imminent massive anti dumping duty on electric bikes,that would have been interesting business,the U.K. bringing all bikes into the UK tariff free and 23 miles away the French paying 54% duty(closer in Ireland),the old days of French and Belgiums coming over to fill vans,vat free and the strong euro,enough said,hehe!!!!
I agree with your last paragraph,this Brexit stupidity is all about the petty power struggle within the Tory party,you would think they would have grown up....but look at Gove and Boris!!!!! They have been clever or was it luck,harnessing the UKIP voters and disgruntled northerners and anti immigrant oldies into an election package,but Rees-Mogg will sometime reveal what this Tory party are really about....actually you can see the start of Singaporean style economy with the workplace pensions and universal credit,low taxes,minimum money into the NHS....the EU workers rights does throw a spanner into this style.....ironically it probably selfishly suits me,I cringe at Corbyns corporation/income tax rises.
We currently need a good and fair government but appear to have the worst government in my living memory.
Still a remainer but now an acceptor.
KudosDave
 
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Danidl

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Interesting analysis by Jeffrey Peel businessman and free-market commentator on the dilemma now facing the ROI,

Ireland and the UK joined the EEC together – should they leave the EU together too?

Brexit has spooked the Irish. In fact, well before the referendum took place last June, the Irish were spooked at even the prospect of Brexit.

In early March last year I attended a Brexit Breakfast addressed by arch-Europhile Ken Clarke, and organised by the AIB Bank. Over 300 business people packed the room at the Dublin Convention Centre. I was one of few Northern Irish in attendance. I think I was the only Leave supporter (apart from the excellent Dr Gerard Lyons who was on the panel). There was a palpable sense of panic at that event. And understandably… the fact is that the Irish and British economies are joined at the hip. The panic was less about the UK leaving the EU. It was more about the UK leaving Ireland.

After all, Ireland’s relationship with the EU, in recent years, has hardly been a bed of roses. Meanwhile the relationship with the United Kingdom has never been better.

The EU’s tendency to tell member states how to behave, grates with the Irish. Remember the Lisbon Treaty vote in 2008? Some 53% of the people of Ireland who voted (an even greater percentage than voted for Brexit) voted to reject the Lisbon Treaty. But the EU was having none of it and insisted that the referendum be held again until the result suited their agenda.

Similarly, the EU, during the bail-out negotiations following the 2008 crash, insisted that the Irish give up their (highly advantageous) corporation tax rates. The Irish, however, held firm and still command a huge share of foreign direct investment (FDI). Similarly, the Dublin government took a dim view when the EU Commission insisted that Apple should repay, to the Irish exchequer, what the Commission deemed to be Apple’s inappropriate tax benefits. The Dublin government considered them to be highly appropriate – to continue attracting big employers like Apple.

But while FDI is important to the Irish economy, the UK is even more important. When the UK leaves the EU some two-thirds of Ireland’s foreign trade will be with English-speaking markets outside the EU. America and the UK are Ireland’s two largest export countries. Now that Ireland is a net contributor to the EU budget, some people are beginning to ask whether Ireland might be better to follow its neighbour and big trading partner out of the EU. After all, both nations joined the EEC together, perhaps they should leave the EU together too.

And, of course, such an arrangement would be ideal for Northern Ireland. Trading between Northern Ireland and the Republic happens across a land border that has no obvious customs posts, despite different VAT rates and different currencies applying in both jurisdictions. But an Irish exit would almost certainly lead to a very rapid trade deal between both nations. Ireland, since it achieved independence from Britain, has always benefited from a Common Travel Area that allows so many of its people to live and work (and even vote) in Britain and Northern Ireland. The CTA could be extended and enhanced if Ireland were to leave the EU.

In October 2016 the Irish Daily Mail published the results of an opinion poll that showed that nearly 40% of Irish people would prefer open borders and free trade with the UK over continued membership of the EU. That’s clearly not a majority of the population but it’s a sizeable percentage. Irish public opinion could move rapidly in the direction of Irish exit if the EU continues its bully-boy tactics and the people of Ireland realise that the EU increasingly represents a drain on Irish taxpayers rather than a provider of never-ending largesse.

Interestingly, while the case for leaving the EU has traditionally come from the right of Irish politics (for example, the Sunday Times columnist and free trade advocate Cormac Lucey has written a book arguing the case for Ireland leaving the Eurozone), those on the left are now adding their voices. People Before Profit Alliance, a hard-left Party active in both Northern Ireland and the Republic, has made clear its support for an Irish exit. It has also made some big gains in recent elections at the expense, mostly, of Sinn Fein.

Anthony Coughlan, the former Associate Professor of Social Policy at Trinity College Dublin, also considered to be from the intellectual left, recently published a report of a study group of Irish economists and constitutional lawyers that “sets out the reasons why ‘Brexit’ when it happens should be accompanied by ‘Irexit’ (Ireland Exit).”

Irexit or not, the fact that Britain will be leaving the EU has obvious consequences for Ireland. The devaluation of the pound alone makes it more difficult for Irish traders (but great for Northern Irish traders in border towns like Newry, who, ironically, were most vocal in their opposition to Brexit). Ireland needs to consider a future that, within the EU, may not make quite as much sense, given the UK’s absence.
Hi Tommie, an interesting piece, but not very dense with facts.

A key point seems to be an arguement that the RoI is close to some tipping point, because a particularly reputable newspaper conducted a strawpoll of 1400 people in Dublin just after the summer holidays , 2.5 months after the referendum, and before there had been any debate in the commons or elsewhere. Incidentally even that poll showed a 60% remaining majority. At a time when any of the difficulties about imports etc had not been developed. I might add that the same newspaper has a cavalier attitude to objective truth, can advance completely diametrically opposed positions depending on its audience and in the irish edition is a failed economic entity being subsidised by a factor of 3 for each copy sold.


I would fully accept the point that we in the RoI are highly concerned before , during and now after the referendum . A concern which was not evident on mainland UK.
The de facto devaluation of the pound sterling is not a positive, even if it means a temporary bonanza in Sprucefield or Newry. Unless those goods are of uk origin totally, the purchasing of them or their piece parts on the world markets will average out in the end. The only " advantage " is that the wage costs of the UK workers are suppressed when selling abroad. What the reduction in sterling has done is to impact the profits of those irish suppliers who made contracts with uk distributors in sterling and are still honouring them. But when those contracts expire what will happen?. Unless the irish were to embrace sterling these fluctuations will continue. Predictions are for sterling to drop below the euro. !
 
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Woosh

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but it would be logical that with only 4 countries putting money in and the rest taking out,they are short of money.
not really.
there are more net contributors than 4, Germany, UK (soon not to be), France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Finland and soon ROI.
The EU may also raise the financial transaction tax, that will be very substantial. Also, we cannot discount a future participation of the UK in the EU customs union or single market, that possibility carries contribution to the EU budget.
 
The EU seem to want us to stay,I suspect that is primarily about money,we don't know the financial position of the EU,they haven't issued accounts for 17 years,but it would be logical that with only 4 countries putting money in and the rest taking out,they are short of money.
I'm worried Dave! Have someone been reading the Daily Mail to you in your sleep?

You do realise this nonsense about the EU not issuing accounts is just simply a lie.

Also, yes we pay x in membership and only get back y (which is less an x) back directly. But its proven over and over and over again that we also get back z in other benefits of being a member, and y + z is much bigger than x.

Its the same with Germany, they'll put in x in membership fees, but know they benefit a lot more than x, so its better.

Other countries pay x in membership fees and the direct payments back (y) is more than x, so they are quids in before the other benefits of membership are calculated.

Please please don't start quoting daily mail numbers and lies, you're better than that ;)
 

Danidl

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Supposedly Brexit is a done deal,whatever happens we are leaving....at least that is what we are told.
The EU seem to want us to stay,I suspect that is primarily about money,we don't know the financial position of the EU,they haven't issued accounts for 17 years,but it would be logical that with only 4 countries putting money in and the rest taking out,they are short of money. This view is reinforced by Tusk,Barnier and Juncker constantly talking about money,everything else seems a side show.
But we are here,if we are leaving then the EU are determined to milk us for as much money as they can or make leaving as unpalatable as possible that we change our mind and keep giving them the £11billion per year.
I have said that if the EU are so determined to keep us then we should ask what deal would they offer if we stayed,that deal may be good enough to satisfy the Brexiters.
I place the onus on the EU because we now are about to enter a trade deal between the UK and EU,I get fed up with May running round like a pet poodle desperate to get any deal at any price,the EU are just sitting back letting her hang herself and our deal position going down the pan,you couldn't imagine Maggie being pushed around like this. We are a big customer of the EU,they want our future business and should be made aware that if they don't start giving us a good deal they are risking a lot of future business,maybe that is happening in the background,who knows?
I think the reason that Hammond is not preparing for a hard Brexit and nobody (EU and UK) is starting to prepare borders/customs at any border is it cannot happen,in the end we will stay in the customs union,maybe named differently,all the current rhetoric is about posturing rather than action,or lack of action. I don't want that I was quite looking forward to bringing product from China into the UK tariff free,especially with the imminent massive anti dumping duty on electric bikes,that would have been interesting business,the U.K. bringing all bikes into the UK tariff free and 23 miles away the French paying 54% duty(closer in Ireland),the old days of French and Belgiums coming over to fill vans,vat free and the strong euro,enough said,hehe!!!!
I agree with your last paragraph,this Brexit stupidity is all about the petty power struggle within the Tory party,you would think they would have grown up....but look at Gove and Boris!!!!! They have been clever or was it luck,harnessing the UKIP voters and disgruntled northerners and anti immigrant oldies into an election package,but Rees-Mogg will sometime reveal what this Tory party are really about....actually you can see the start of Singaporean style economy with the workplace pensions and universal credit,low taxes,minimum money into the NHS....the EU workers rights does throw a spanner into this style.....ironically it probably selfishly suits me,I cringe at Corbyns corporation/income tax rises.
We currently need a good and fair government but appear to have the worst government in my living memory.
Still a remainer but now an acceptor.
KudosDave
Yes the EU does want you to stay.. something on the lines of " we are stronger together" , and it not just or even about the money.
If you were interested you might carry through the budget analysis...
http://ec.europa.eu/budget/news/article_en.cfm?id=201610131243

In a table referring to fiscial year 2014, .. these consolidated results are always a few years behind. It indicated that 11 of the 28 countries were nett contributors.

I am trying to adhere to my policy of not commenting on the named personalities or party politics of other states, not because I don't have opinions, but because its improper.
 
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Woosh

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Also, yes we pay x in membership and only get back y (which is less an x) back directly. But its proven over and over and over again that we also get back z in other benefits of being a member, and y + z is much bigger than x.
x is paid by individuals, most keenly felt by brexiters, y is paid to local authorities and other institutions and z paid to the capitalists.
Talking about transfer of wealth, it's going in the wrong direction, no wonder that 17+ millions voted out.
 

oldgroaner

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oldgroaner

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x is paid by individuals, most keenly felt by brexiters, y is paid to local authorities and other institutions and z paid to the capitalists.
Talking about transfer of wealth, it's going in the wrong direction, no wonder that 17+ millions voted out.
You don't really believe that they reasoned that out and came to that conclusion do you?
You are looking for a reason and fitting one in with no evidence where there was an entirely different motive, far simpler than that, and this has been supported in Polls.
They wanted to have a go at the Government.
It wanted to stay in, yet at the same time blamed the EU for everything that was wrong

So they wanted the opposite to spite them. believing at the same time the EU was the source of their woes.
They hated "Project fear and fell for the £350 million the NHS"
They are now going to pay for that huge mistake, and once again the Government and the rich will do very nicely as now they can treat the poor suckers like serfs.
 
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Kudoscycles

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I'm worried Dave! Have someone been reading the Daily Mail to you in your sleep?

You do realise this nonsense about the EU not issuing accounts is just simply a lie.

Also, yes we pay x in membership and only get back y (which is less an x) back directly. But its proven over and over and over again that we also get back z in other benefits of being a member, and y + z is much bigger than x.

Its the same with Germany, they'll put in x in membership fees, but know they benefit a lot more than x, so its better.

Other countries pay x in membership fees and the direct payments back (y) is more than x, so they are quids in before the other benefits of membership are calculated.

Please please don't start quoting daily mail numbers and lies, you're better than that ;)
I had quoted the 17 years before and nobody disagreed....perhaps you could advise is the EU short of money? How much does it have in the bank? It's just Tusk and Barnier talk of nothing else.
I don't read the Daily Mail,prefer the Guardian.
Don't misunderstand I am still very much a Remainer,but don't like the way we are leaving....May is allowing us to be pushed around by the EU,you know that I wouldn't be pushed around like that so I don't see why I should watch our country being bullied....we should say.....that's what we owe,here's the money and if it's not enough then get stuffed....this EU attitude is converting some Remainers into Leavers.
KudosDave
 

Woosh

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You are looking for a reason and fitting one in with no evidence where there was an entirely different motive, far simpler than that, and this has been supported in Polls.
if you wonder why the £350 millions a week to the NHS hits the mark so well, it is because brexiters see it as their money.
I bet if the EU contribution is paid out of financial transaction tax, nobody would be bothered to vote against it.
 

oldgroaner

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if you wonder why the £350 millions a week to the NHS hits the mark so well, it is because brexiters see it as their money.
I bet if the EU contribution is paid out of financial transaction tax, nobody would be bothered to vote against it.
How very true!
 
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