Putting e-bike to bed for the duration of C-virus.

[Deleted member 25121]

Hot and humid climate does not stop transmission, it reduces it so has an impact.
as of yesterday:

Densely populated but hot and humid countries:

Vietnam

134 cases, zero death

Singapore

558 cases

2 deaths

Thailand

934 cases

4 deaths

Malaysia

1,796 cases

19 deaths

Those countries have met the virus possibly at the same time as we do here.

UK

8,227 cases

427 deaths

A snapshot like that says very little without knowledge of their populations, the counter measures they put in place and the accuracy of the number of cases figures.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

I think we all agree with that (except maybe SW?). The more open question (where we don't seem to agree) is what the age distribution is of people who aren't taking care.

From what I see there are too many of all ages not taking enough care, which is why it's so wrong to target just one group. The danger in doing so is that other groups might start to feel complacent and feel badly about the targeted group.

 

[Wicky]

you could put me in charge id stop it in a week, anyone seen out side will be shot dead

if you want to stop ppl round here going out you will have to throw them all in prison, not going to happen pmsl

Best get BUPA membership ASAP

Outside of London, Hampshire has recorded 207 cases...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

 

[Woosh]

A snapshot like that says very little without knowledge of their populations, the counter measures they put in place and the accuracy of the number of cases figures.

I give up.
I thought you guys would be cheered up to see that the number of cases will peak in about 3 weeks because the warmer weather and higher humidity from the SW wind are going to reduce the rate of infection naturally and the situation will be tolerable until October when the weather gets chilly again.
It's the same pattern with the usual flu except that flu does not kill as many people.
It's the first year of CORVID19 so there is a bit of delay due to the building up the reservoir of spreaders. Next season, it will coincide with seasonal flu.
Let's face it, the real test for the NHS is this December. Our government is going to tell us soon anyway.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

I give up.
I thought you guys would be cheered up to see that the number of cases will peak in about 3 weeks because the warmer weather and higher humidity from the SW wind are going to reduce the rate of infection naturally and the situation will be tolerable until October when the weather gets chilly again.
It's the same pattern with the usual flu except that flu does not kill as many people.
Let's face it, the real test for the NHS is this December. Our government is going to tell us soon anyway.

It would be good news if it was true that warmer weather would ease the situation significantly, we're just pointing out that this is may not happen.

It's best that we know the truth on these matters rather than overly optimistic assessments from non experts. We has far too much of that with Brexit.

 

[Woosh]

Best get BUPA membership ASAP

isn't it true that they hand over all their beds to the NHS?

 

[Woosh]

It would be good news if it was true that warmer weather would ease the situation significantly, we're just pointing out that this is may not happen.

It's best that we know the truth on these matters rather than overly optimistic assessments from non experts. We has far too much of that with Brexit.

I could post more plots and curves - you will just move the goalpost asking for more proofs.
No point of me getting into a technical debate with you about flu and similar viruses.
If you are interested, you can study the corona virus dashboard. It has tons of information. Just take a look at the daily charts of new cases (bottom left, select the daily tab) for various countries and check the rate of infections.

 

[Wicky]

Brilliant if it does , however can't rely on it bring it to a swift conclusion like bacteria in War of the Worlds and sea water in The Andromeda Strain. It will need measures for at least 3+ months to get a grip on it.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

I could post more plots and curves - you will just move the goalpost asking for more proofs.
No point of me getting into a technical debate with you about flu and similar viruses.

My advise is to listen to the words of the experts, are they saying that the weather will slow down the spread of the virus significantly? For sure it will ease the pressure on the NHS because, as we know, demand generally drops off over the summer.

I'm told by the experts that the corona virus differs in many ways from flu.

 

[Woosh]

I'm told by the experts that the corona virus differs in many ways from flu.

that is self evident.
Here is the shape of the two waves that got our government into changing its mind about 'herd immunity', which is illustrated by the red line.
Last week, government asked us for 'social distancing' we were then moved on the green line/
This week, we are in lockdown, the blue line. Add 2 to the months (0 = Feb, 1=March etc 10=December)
To give you an idea of the vertical axis, the first peak of the blue line is as bad as Italy's at the moment. We are just 12-14 days away. The second peak is much higher because there is no way we can have enough beds this winter.

This graph is done by about 100 scientists, mostly @ Imperial College London.

 

[Wicky]

isn't it true that they hand over all their beds to the NHS?

Still pay em and if lucky you might get a side room in a NHS hospital, rather than on a ward bay ;-)

We used to get private patients in for certain ops (nephrectomy) and once stable they were given a side room to recuperate in if there was one free - apart from that they were treated much the same. Though we did have one whingy NHS admin manager that had private health insurance and strangely never made it out the ward during his stay...

 

[Deleted member 25121]

that is self evident.
Here is the shape of the two waves that got our government into changing its mind about 'herd immunity', which is illustrated by the red line.
Last week, government asked us for 'social distancing' we were then moved on the green line/
This week, we are in lockdown, the blue line. Add 2 to the months (0 = Feb, 1=March etc 10=December)
To give you an idea of the vertical axis, the first peak of the blue line is as bad as Italy's at the moment. We are just 12-14 days away. The second peak is much higher because there is no way we can have enough beds this winter.

This graph is done by about 100 scientists, mostly @ Imperial College London.

I thought we were still on the green line, doesn't the blue line apply to the full lockdowns imposed at Wuhan and today India rather than our partial lockdown?

There's a lot of talk about construction sites closing but there are a lot more non-crfitical factories still running, we're some way off a full lockdown.

 

[Wicky]

NHS because, as we know, demand generally drops off over the summer.

It used too be, but its pretty much hectic all year round. Still gets crazier around Xmas / Easter holiday period as relatives usually happy to have hospital look after older folk so causes a log jam when they get admitted / don't get discharged. Usually filling the beds normally used for routine patients. And routine & elective will suffer in next few months.

Very much obssesively documented & recorded by NHS Quants https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/bed-data-overnight/

 

[Deleted member 25121]

It used too be, but its pretty much hectic all year round. Still gets crazier around Xmas / Easter holiday period as relatives usually happy to have hospital look after older folk so causes a log jam when they get admitted / don't get discharged. Usually filling the beds normally used for routine patients. And routine & elective will suffer in next few months.

Very much obssesively documented & recorded by NHS Quants https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/bed-data-overnight/

Sorry, I know the NHS is hopelessly under funded and consequently overloaded all year round.

I didn't mean to imply that things got easy for them in the summer, far from it.

 

[Woosh]

I thought we were still on the green line, doesn't the blue line apply to the full lockdowns imposed at Wuhan and today India rather than our partial lockdown?

we were on the green line last week, then the daily growth rate (about 33%) is verified, we run a parallel course with Italy and Spain with 12 days between us and Italy.
Nobody is going to vote for a team that let us be in same or worse plot than Italy's.
Now we are on the blue line, keeping our fingers crossed that the peak in 3 weeks is not going to kill one fifth of our NHS doctors and nurses. April will be the new battle of Britain.
The scientists won the politicians over and we have not heard Cummings name ever since.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

we were on the green line last week, then the daily growth rate (about 33%) is verified, we run a parallel course with Italy and Spain with 12 days between us and Italy.
Nobody is going to vote for a team that let us be in same or worse plot than Italy's.
Now we are on the blue line, keeping our fingers crossed that the peak in 3 weeks is not going to kill one fifth of our NHS doctors and nurses.
The scientists won the politicians over and we have not heard Cummings name ever since.

But we're a long way from the full lockdown conditions as seen in China, which would be the blue line.

I suppose we're somewhere between the green and blue lines but it doesn't matter really, what does matter is how quickly or otherwise the virus effects people here and only time will tell........

 

[Woosh]

I did say, if you are interested in numbers, use the corona virus dashboard.
You can check that Italy, Spain, France and UK follow the same path.
We are two weeks behind Italy, one week behind Spain and 3-4 days behind France.
We have currently 433 deaths, France crossed that point 20-March, Spain crossed that point 17-March, Italy 09-March.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

[Deleted member 25121]

I did say, if you are interested in numbers, use the corona virus dashboard.
You can check that Italy, Spain, France and UK follow the same path.
We are two weeks behind Italy, one week behind Spain and 3-4 days behind France.
We have currently 433 deaths, France crossed that point 20-March, Spain crossed that point 17-March, Italy 09-March.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Yes, I wasn't disputing that at all.

 

[Yak]

I don’t want to argue, as the only true way we will know what will happen is after it has happened, but the temperatures in Spain, other that the last two days, have been in the low to mid 20s. That is like mid August in the UK ;-) so you may need more time /an unseasonal heatwave to let the climate help you over there. For me, I just hope our lockdown will do what is necessary.

 

[Yak]

But I did use my newly-converted bike for the first time to go to the supermarket today. I didn’t know what to expect, but my broad grin when I arrived was met with frowns from the other shoppers! Looking forward to some freedom - the latest here is that lockdown may last til June. Bah!