Putting e-bike to bed for the duration of C-virus.

[Woosh]

my point is simple: facts are useful and don't lie like politicians.
Trust facts and not impressions.
We usually take aim/poke fun at foreigners, especially Chinese, Russians, Germans, French and Italians while forgetting to learn lessons from their misery and their success in Hubei.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

Good, so let's stick to facts rather than the Daily Mail / Daily Express etc etc type hysteria.

What is factually incorrect in this statement:
"The young have no choice but to go to work, they have to use public transport, they have to live in small flats and if they've a partner they may well live with and kiss them, clubs are closed, they can't eat out because restaurants are closed and partying is forbidden."

?????

 

[Woosh]

the facts in that statement are the individual probabilities of transmission for each and every one factor concerning that group of people, not that they don't have choice.
We already know that they have to go to work and from there, we can deduce the rest. In math, your proposition is comparable to an axiom, something that needs not to be demonstrated or debated.
when we were debating about the 2m rule, what was important is our personal judgement on different probabilities concerning factors affecting the spreading of this virus.
Would the probability of a family of spreaders riding their e-bikes in Epping forest or Richmond Park passing on their virus to other people they come close to on their way greater than the probability of the same family going about their daily business like mum and dad taking the underground going to work, the baby going to the creche and children going to schools or taking part in some birthday party?

 

[Deleted member 25121]

So why are you targeting the young to take care when surely everybody should be taking extra care? That's the point I'm making.

Partcularly so when the ones in the best position to be able to influence their level of care are the retired.

(By the way, and a trivial point I know, but here in the UK it's "maths", not "math".)

 

[Danidl]

the young people are most likely to be the conduit for spreading the virus because many of them don't react to the virus.
The virus penetrates their age group much more widely.
It's a bit like an allergy. When you are young, your immune system does not pick it up, the virus can multiply and be shed everyday without you noticing it.
One day, the virus will mutate and your immune system will wake up and react violently. You will be very sick. Old people don't generally react as violently.
The ethical issue will soon need to be debated. Hospital staff will have to decide who to give the bed to. We are having the April wave. Then when the situation improves in June, the lockdown may be rescinded but the virus will come back in November when the temperature goes below 10 C.

Woosh. Two points.
50% of the ICU cases in France are of people younger than 60 hit by this virus.
The second is that there is no evidence ,yet, that this virus is potentially seasonal. That is just a supposition. I would put that in the forlorn hope category at present. Perhaps if One lives in an arid sunburned area, without Air conditioning and with low population density, it will not thrive. But in modern AC heaven such as Dubai,or Phoenix or Canary Wharf .. what bets?.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

As a one time marketing engineer at Hewlett Packard can I point out that, in my humble opinion, you think you're targeting the "traditionally built" market but right now you're at risk of alienation another market, that of the younger "maker" market which is keen to experiment and convert push bikes.

No offence intended, please don't get nasty at me as others have done.

 

[Woosh]

(By the way, and a trivial point I know, but here in the UK it's "maths", not "math".)

got it.

So why are you targeting the young to take care when surely everybody should be taking extra care?

because the young mix a lot, and when they get the virus, a lot of them are asymptomatic.
They are the group where our effort to slow down the virus must be aimed at.
If they are tested, they will understand the risks much better.

Partcularly so when the ones in the best position to be able to influence their level of care are the retired.

Within two years, 80% of us will get it anyway, so it's a matter of deciding for oneself how much exposure to various risks (existing health issue, cancer, heart attack, dementia, time left on this earth, money, will etc) one should take. Corona virus is just one of the issues.

 

[Woosh]

As a one time marketing engineer at Hewlett Packard can I point out that, in my humble opinion, you think you're targeting the "traditionally built" market but right now you're at risk of alienation another market, that of the younger "maker" market which is keen to experiment and convert push bikes.

No offence intended, please don't get nasty at me as others have done.

I already accepted defeat when it comes to the men in lycra market! I leave it to Haibike and Cube.
as for those who are interested in conversion, most of my customers are young pensioners (if there is a word for this group of people) like myself, old enough to know how to drill into a round tube and young enough to still drill straight.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

because the young mix a lot, and when they get the virus, a lot of them are asymptomatic.
They are the group where our effort to slow down the virus must be aimed at.
If they are tested, they will understand the risks much better.

Where are the facts to so that they are being irresponsible right now, and please ignore the Daily Mail and Daily Express etc hysteria?
In my experience with our kids and their friends in their 20s and 30s plus social media (ignoring this little backwater) they are the ones who are a lot more concerned about this mess than the 50+ age group who think they're the experts (for example in this little backwater).

 

[Deleted member 25121]

I already accepted defeat when it comes to the men in lycra market! I leave it to Haibike and Cube.
as for those who are interested in conversion, most of my customers are young pensioners (if there is a word for this group of people) like myself, old enough to know how to drill into a round tube and young enough to still drill straight.

Then you are totally missing the maker market, try following what's going on in the Raspberry Pie and Arduino space , there's huge potential there and I imagine some of that is already buying from you.

 

[Woosh]

The second is that there is no evidence ,yet, that this virus is potentially seasonal

if you look at new confirmed cases in Italy, 6.6k on the 22/3, 5.6k on the 23rd, 4.8k yesterday.
So new confirmed cases have peaked on the 22nd.
That seems to confirm seasonality because Lockdown only delay the timeline for a few weeks by reducing the multiplication factor or rate of transmission.
the number of spreaders in the population continues to rise day after day.

 

[Woosh]

Then you are totally missing the maker market, try following what's going on in the Raspberry Pie and Arduino space , there's huge potential there and I imagine some of that is already buying from you.

I am too old to be after a big reward! I convert bikes for the benefit of physical work - for my diabetes.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

if you look at new confirmed cases in Italy, 6.6k on the 22/3, 5.6k on the 23rd, 4.8k yesterday.
So new confirmed cases have peaked on the 22nd.
That seems to confirm seasonality because Lockdown only delay the timeline for a few weeks by reducing the multiplication factor or rate of transmission.
the number of spreaders in the population continues to rise day after day.

You can't reasonably come to any conclusion based on an analysis over the last 3 days in Italy, come on!!!

Look at what's happening worldwide, look at Australia, look at what's happening in the USA where temperatures are rising and infections are rocketing.

Apply some scientific method please, not fake news.

 

[Deleted member 25121]

I am too old to be after a big reward! I convert bikes for the benefit of physical work - for my diabetes.

You risk alienating a big potential market with your assertions, maybe back off a little IMHO?

 

[Woosh]

You can't reasonably come to any conclusion based on an analysis over the last 3 days in Italy, come on!!!

Look at what's happening worldwide, look at Australia, look at what's happening in the USA where temperatures are rising and infections are rocketing.

Apply some scientific method please, not fake news.

I do apply some scientific method.
You can take a look if you like. I posted the link to the John Hopkins university dashboard last week (14/03) in our little corner about brexit.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

 

[Wicky]

if you look at new confirmed cases in Italy, 6.6k on the 22/3, 5.6k on the 23rd, 4.8k yesterday.
So new confirmed cases have peaked on the 22nd.
That seems to confirm seasonality because Lockdown only delay the timeline for a few weeks by reducing the multiplication factor or rate of transmission.
the number of spreaders in the population continues to rise day after day.

The drop I believe is more to with the stringent lockdown having an effect with lag. Temps are pretty warm in places like Madrid & Iran and it's not abating

 

[Woosh]

The drop I believe is more to with the stringent lockdown having an effect with lag. Temps are pretty warm in places like Madrid & Iran and it's not abating

if you look at the time lag between infection then symptoms then contacting the authorities for test then wait two days for the result, lockdown does not produce immediate result.
Lockdown changes only the rate of infection, reducing from 2.5 every 5 days to may be half that, 1.25 every 5 days, it's still greater than 1. Only effective treatment and vaccine can reduce the rate to less than 1. That means that the number of people carrying the virus will continue to rise, albeit at a much slower rate.
Let's assume we use the above contagion rates and we have currently 1 million people in the UK carrying the virus.
Without taking any measure, all of us would have been exposed to the virus by 19-April.
With lockdown, we would still be all exposed to the virus by 28-June, delaying the wave by two months.
Without seasonality, it would be difficult to explain the observed the wave shape of daily new cases in China, Korea, Japan. The wave seems to have peaked in Italy and Switzerland in the last 3 days, Spain is following the trend.

 

[Amoto65]

The temperature effect is two fold, first of all temperature does not appear to affect the virus but what it does do as the temperature rises is lessen the burden on the health system as there are less seasonal flu and other winter related illnesses.

 

[Ocsid]

Lockdown changes only the rate of infection, reducing from 2.5 every 5 days to may be half that, 1.25 every 5 days, it's still greater than 1. Only effective treatment and vaccine can reduce the rate to less than 1. That means that the number of people carrying the virus will continue to rise, albeit at a much slower rate.

Is that actually true, would not the growing percentage of the population surviving COVID-19 and so have developed some immunity, in itself reduce the infection probability, of those yet to get infected?
IE, working as some vaccines [like smallpox and polio as examples] do, to reduce the viable transmission opportunities of the population as a whole.

He said, more in hope than confidence!

 

[Woosh]

Is that actually true, would not the growing percentage of the population surviving COVID-19 and so have developed some immunity, in itself reduce the infection probability, of those yet to get infected?

I agree with this, but like other corona viruses, this one mutates too. There is no data yet on how long someone who has recovered from it will keep their immunity. We need our annual flu jab.
People at Imperial College London build their model taking care to match that with observed behaviour. They predict a huge wave (in December) of new confirmed cases, some 4 times higher than the current wave .
We'll know lot more about this virus by Christmas.

Where we are at the moment: