Prices of the electricity we use to charge

[flecc]

How long? Until Putin goes I guess.
As for winning, the West has already won, like in chess, we are in middle game. Putin can't last forever.

No, that war will most likely be brought to an end by agreement while Putin is still in power in Russia. As I predicted in the earlier stages in the war, we will yet see Putin and some western leaders shaking hands, with all talk of prosecution for war crimes forgotten. Just look at history for the proof, the only way that ever changes is when an enemy is totally defeated, and we won't be totally defeating Russia in WW3 any time soon.
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[Woosh]

No, that war will most likely be brought to an end by agreement while Putin is still in power in Russia. As I predicted in the earlier stages in the war, we will yet see Putin and some western leaders shaking hands, with all talk of prosecution for war crimes forgotten. Just look at history for the proof, the only way that ever changes is when an enemy is totally defeated, and we won't be totally defeating Russia in WW3 any time soon.
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I don't think the West (or anyone else) is seeking a total defeat from Russia.
Ukranians have already chosen to leave Russian orbit. That's already a win for the West.
You'll see a Biden win in November, more F16s will be delivered, the Russian air force will be severely reduced, fewer rockets will land in Ukraine, the rubble will slide further.

 

[flecc]

in the case of Putin, sanctions have worked relatively well. The West managed to compensate for lack of Russian oil and gas thanks to Canada, Norway and the world market. Russia has to sell oil at deep discount (no more than $60/barrel). Gazprom loses money for the first time in its history. The Russian economy has to support the war. Russia will emerge from the war a much weaker power.

No, yet again they haven't worked. Russia still exports oil and grain freely, helped by the West**, and they still import freely all the Western items they need and the weapons and ammunition for the Ukraine war.

They won't emerge a much weaker power in real terms since their country's immense resources make them inherently the strongest nation on earth.

** The "dark fleet" of around sixty oil tankers exporting their oil is run by an English company in Essex !
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[Ghost1951]

in the case of Putin, sanctions have worked relatively well. The West managed to compensate for lack of Russian oil and gas thanks to Canada, Norway and the world market. Russia has to sell oil at deep discount (no more than $60/barrel). Gazprom loses money for the first time in its history. The Russian economy has to support the war. Russia will emerge from the war a much weaker power.

I wish it were so, but it isn't.

This line you are taking looks like the Daily Mail and Express.

The Russian economy according to reputable sources, has been surprisingly resilient. The Indians and the Chinese are sucking up hydrocarbons at an enormous rate. The Rouble is 10% higher against the Euro than it was in 2020. It is true that some western brands are now more expensive because they are being routed through countries like India and China. I think you need to look more widely at information sources.

Rouble to Euro value over time:

Euro to ruble Oct 16, 2024 | Statista

In March 2022, one euro could increasingly buy fewer Russian rubles according to the EUR to RUB exchange rate history.

www.statista.com

 

[flecc]

I don't think the West (or anyone else) is seeking a total defeat from Russia.

You might believe that, trouble is the Russians don't, being convinced more than ever now that the West is their enemy. The failure to understand Russia's defensive paranoia has been a Western fault for at least 200 years, leading to endless misunderstanding that continues to this day.

That's made much worse by the large body of political opinion in the USA that firmly believes we should have an all out war with Russia sooner rather than later, to finally settle the issues and crush Communism for good.

Ukranians have already chosen to leave Russian orbit. That's already a win for the West.

Great! We've gained the dodgiest and weakest of friends in the jointly most corrupt country in the world, in the process driving Russia further into China's arms.

You have a strange definition of winning.
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[Ghost1951]

We still see people taking the view that not bowing to the gangster is wrong. I take a different view.

 

[Woosh]

You have a strange definition of winning.

I am concerned about the kind of populism that Putin seems to promote.
I suspect Russia funds it.
It's now on the rise in France as much as elsewhere.

 

[flecc]

We still see people taking the view that not bowing to the gangster is wrong. I take a different view.

But are you sure you know who the gangster is?

By far the worst gangster from 1950 to now has been the USA with it's near constant wars in countries where they mostly had no legal right to be, creating chaos and millions of deaths in the process that we are still suffering from.

Over the the same period Russia attacked no-one externally until 2008, that against Georgia to stop them joining NATO, bringing that anti-Russian organisation to Russia's southern border. But even then Putin withdrew instantly when Georgia agreed not to do such an unneighbourly thing. That was all it took, not giving in to a gangster, simply agreeing to be a decent neighbour.

That was virtually identical to the situation when Cuba was bringing Russian missiles to the USA's border, so President Kennedy threatened immediate lethal force if that didn't stop.

So was President Kennedy a gangster making someone give into him, or was he just defending his country as Putin was doing with Georgia?
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[Woosh]

But are you sure you know who the gangster is?

Bush nicks your oil, Putin nicks your land. Who is worse?

 

[saneagle]

But are you sure you know who the gangster is?

By far the worst gangster from 1950 to now has been the USA with it's near constant wars in countries where they mostly had no legal right to be, creating chaos and millions of deaths in the process that we are still suffering from.

Over the the same period Russia attacked no-one externally until 2008, that against Georgia to stop them joining NATO, bringing that anti-Russian organisation to Russia's southern border. But even then Putin withdrew instantly when Georgia agreed not to do such an unneighbourly thing. That was all it took, not giving in to a gangster, simply agreeing to be a decent neighbour.

That was virtually identical to the situation when Cuba was bringing Russian missiles to the USA's border, so President Kennedy threatened immediate lethal force if that didn't stop.

So was President Kennedy a gangster making someone give into him, or was he just defending his country as Putin was doing with Georgia?
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What about Tony Blaire, and where did he get his instructions from?

 

[flecc]

Bush nicks your oil, Putin nicks your land. Who is worse?

That's too simplistic. Bush and Co. not only nick your culture and identity with bribery and lies, replacing it with the American Coca Cola and McDonalds one. If you have any left leaning politically they first kill a few million of you.

That was what the Yalta conference was about, to determine the shape of the post WW2 world, communism versus Western style democracy. Russia tried to achieve communism by persuasion, the Americans tried to stop that with warfare. Both failed, so we have a world full of unhappy people adopting populist disagreement with all leaderships and political styles.
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[Woosh]

I see the world is slowly moving to a better place. Super powers still use a lot of their military might but less as a percentage of their capabilities decade after decade: Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, the Balkans and now Ukraine. Countries that have been at war with the USA (Japan, Korea, Vietnam) eventually cooperate and reform their society so conflict is less likely in the future. Compare the life before their war with the USA to after. Those with autocratic regimes are stuck much longer in a rut.

 

[saneagle]

I see the world is slowly moving to a better place.

The word is that when the F16s appear in Ukrainian air space, WW3 will start. Is that a better place?

 

[flecc]

I see the world is slowly moving to a better place. Super powers still use a lot of their military might but less as a percentage of their capabilities decade after decade: Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, the Balkans and now Ukraine. Countries that have been at war with the USA (Japan, Korea, Vietnam) eventually cooperate and reform their society so conflict is less likely in the future.

That is the view of those who are happy with their lot in life. it certainly isn't shared by many millions. Like those who still indefinitely suffer the immense harm that Western wars have done. Like those in supposedly civilised societies who exist homelessly on the breadline. Like those who can see no hope on the horizon in what passes for their society. Many in South Korea and Japan are far from happy in their rat race societies, and I see no sign of real peace between some Islamic countries and the West.

Those with autocratic regimes are stuck much longer in a rut.

True, but China and Russia trying to use autocracy to reach a new world system, probably doomed to eventual failure. The EU is trying to reach the same end by supposedly democratic means, but also failing since resented autocracy is still necessary.
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[Woosh]

The word is that when the F16s appear in Ukrainian air space, WW3 will start. Is that a better place?

I don't think a few F16's are going to start WW3. Putin thinks the West is so corrupt that it won't dare poking the Russian bear when he sent his troops over the border. Still, if Ukraine can control more of their skies and should down all the flying bombs that Putin lobs into their country everyday, Ukraine will get stronger every month.

 

[Woosh]

The EU is trying to reach the same end by supposedly democratic means, but also failing since resented autocracy is still necessary.

that's the difference. I don't think autocracy is the answer. In the West, we don't have to swallow the lies if we don't want to. In China and Russia, they don't have that choice.

 

[Ghost1951]

I am concerned about the kind of populism that Putin seems to promote.
I suspect Russia funds it.
It's now on the rise in France as much as elsewhere.

Populism is nothing to get concerned about - at least, not if, you are interested in politicians doing what 'the people' want.

The people who don't like that are just smug, elitists who despise their fellow men and women - especially if they are the ordinary folk who lack the pretensions of those who think themselves better.

The 'dangerous populism' some folk despise so much, is on the march right across Europe where the mass of the population are utterly sick of politicians like Macron talking down to them and scolding them for expressing their opinions and to some extent, their pain.

Macron is the product of a highly elitist system which regards ordinary people as little better than dumb animals who are too stupid to know what is good for them. He is far from alone. Governments across Europe have been scolding the masses for complaining about migration which robs them of better working conditions and wages, housing at affordable cost, and even the culture of their towns and cities. Smug so and sos, like Lady Nugee have let the veil fall, revealing their contempt. I'm sure you know Lady Nugee well, but in case, I'll say she goes by another name, and likes to hide her real status in order to bolster her Labour credentials.

Miliband: Thornberry's 'white van, flag' tweet lacked respect

Ed Miliband says a Labour MP who quit her role after tweeting a picture of a house with three England flags and a white van parked outside "conveyed a sense of disrespect".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[flecc]

that's the difference. I don't think autocracy is the answer. In the West, we don't have to swallow the lies if we don't want to. In China and Russia, they don't have that choice.

That's the impasse, we may never be able to reach a better society without autocracy to force our way there.

But a better society is now desperately needed worldwide, since our current democratic systems are failing miserably, leaving everyone increasingly unhappy. Much of that is due to our dishonesty with ourselves, such as calling our system democracy when it isn't anything like one.

In truth much of what we called democracy for over five decades was in fact just the consumer society, giving everyone the goodies they wanted, simulating satisfactory continuous life advancement, but of course that can't work indefinitely. Either we run out of things to gain or we become unable to afford everyone having everything, either way bringing that satisfaction to an abrupt end.

That is where we are now, large proportions of democratic societies becoming the have-nots with life increasingly becoming existence rather than enjoyment, and even those little affected yet fearful of the future.
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[Ghost1951]

I suspect Russia funds it.
It's now on the rise in France as much as elsewhere.

Here we go again. This just shows a disconnect between the author and reality. A total failure to understand why people are rejecting the politics of those who despise them and their interests.

Of course, no one could vote for BREXIT, or an end to mass migration unless cleverer, devious minds had put them up to it, could they. Well it might seem so to those who have no contact with real people and no idea about how certain things impact their lives.

 

[Ghost1951]

The word is that when the F16s appear in Ukrainian air space, WW3 will start. Is that a better place?

No it won't. My life experience has been that when you kick a bully in the balls, he suddenly decides it is time to leave you alone.

No one is talking about using western weapons to attack Moscow.

Putin and his rabid FSB friends know full well that the day they go too far, is the day all of their wealth becomes so much rubbish and is the day when they start living like dogs. They don't want that anymore than we do.