How to kill a potentially lucrative market

[indalo]

Although I have mentioned the excruciating cost of replacement batteries before, I hadn't quite realised just how expensive the latest crop of more powerful models are.

According to the OnBike site attached to the list of advertisers, new 14A models from Ezee & Wisper are now the wrong side of £500. The Popiel shop in south London will provide you, (if you really can't resist!) with a 36V 11A "gold" model for a barely believable £549!

Now, I'm sure some of you are perfectly aware of these prices and somebody can probably quote a price beyond even those I have mentioned but to give some perspective to this, just recently in my earlier posting about "wish lists," someone responding mentioned that his budget for a bike was of the order of £500. We all know that it's possible to buy a new ebike for that kind of money and perhaps they're not the best but there's something wrong and this electric bike market will never grow in the way it should in these times of economic restraint unless that situation changes.

I wonder how many ebikes are lying unused simply because their owners, many of whom may be elderly and on restricted incomes, just cannot afford to replace their battery. Ok, I'm harping on really but there is no justification for the prices being asked for Li-ion batteries. Their componentry isn't all that sophisticated and manufacturing costs cannot be so much more than that for the plethora of electronic devices which abound in almost every household in this 21st century.

My point in banging on about this is that any possibility of getting people in the UK out of their cars, (desirable in many, many ways) and on to ebikes will be doomed to failure unless this one, single ongoing cost is reduced to a much more affordable level. I have to ask, would YOU have bought your £799 electric bike if someone had told you a replacement battery would cost £1000 and you'd need one every couple of years? I doubt it and although we're not quite there yet, there comes a point......I'm sure you get my drift.

A battery for the cost of a family holiday is just ridiculous!

 

[NRG]

Couldn't agree more, it could be argued that there is a certain amount of profitering going on and a more realistic price is £400 even with duty, VAT, warranty and mark up.....but £1000? What replacement costs that much?

 

[Pedalo]

My A123 pack cost £80

O.K. it's only about 2.3Ah but it's absolutely fine for my 7 mile commute.

I think manufacturers could do with offering more choice.
Smaller/cheaper batteries are probably fine for a lot of commuters but the emphasis is on making battery capacity larger / longer range which seems to come with a hefty price tag.

 

[Synthman]

Those packs from China that others on this forum have bought seem more appropriately priced at around £200 including delivery for 36v 15ah. I will definitely get myself one when I can afford it!

But yeah, I agree about the prices. I can't even find a suitable match for mine, though the Ezee ones are the best match at well over half the cost of the bike. By the time the battery fails, it would be cheaper for me to scrap it and get a new bike, as not only would I need a new battery, but tyres, brakes, bulbs and problems with corroded parts by then. The controller could fail also.

 

[flecc]

the emphasis is on making battery capacity larger / longer range which seems to come with a hefty price tag.

We've only ourselves to blame, since for years the war-cry from e-bikers was "More Range!". This led to the larger capacities over 10 Ah.

As for the prices, as I've so often said, much of it isn't in tangible content but in the years of research that the top companies producing the best batteries have carried out. They have no charitable donations to do this work, it has to be paid for somehow, and the end customer is the one who has to foot that bill. This is the same as the drugs industry in that respect, pills costing pennies to produce often cost us or the NHS many pounds to buy.

The trouble with batteries is that the research cost is added at source, so import duties, importer margins, end seller margins and then VAT are cumulatively added as percentages. Since in this small volume business the importer-end seller margin realistically has to be about a doubling* of the arrival price, and VAT adds a further 17.5%, we can see that the price of battery and research costs at source for the £500+ battery was fairly reasonable, and the actual manufacturing cost alone very low.

* Not a rip-off as many often think, none of the e-bike entrepeneurs are wealthy to my knowledge, many are relatively poor and would be better off slaving in more lucrative industries. Quite a few have left this industry with less money than when they entered it.

To have appreciably lower prices, much higher volumes are needed so that there are economies of manufacturing scale, more mechanised production and the static research cost spread over the larger numbers of batteries, meaning much less added per battery.

So we have a catch 22, lower prices needed for volume sales, volume sales needed for lower prices.
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[tillson]

This is a particular gripe of mine too. I have tried to remain open minded about batteries, but I have to say that I come to the conclusion that they are a complete rip-off.

The main problem for the consumer being that once they have shown a commitment to a particular manufacturer by purchasing their product, they are then at the mercy of that manufacturer regarding the cost of the replacement battery.

What do you do when your £2000 purchase needs a new battery that only the original manufacturer can supply? This dilemma is manna from heaven for the manufacturer and I believe that the price point for the replacement battery is based on this. It is pitched just at the point where the customer will pay under duress rather than scrap the bike and is nothing to do with the true cost of manufacture. A pretty un-attractive way to do business and potential purchases should consider this very carefully before buying an ebike.

In conclusion, based on my 30 month foray into the world of ebikes, battery performance is exaggerated by the Manufacturers and they view replacements as a bit of a cash cow.

 

[eddieo]

If you cant afford it you need to save up for the inevitable.........Or is that to quaint a concept?

 

[indalo]

Your points are well made Flecc but you are being a little too kind to the battery manufacturing companies. Li-ion technology has been around for quite a few years now so it's not exactly groundbreaking stuff. Those companies who spent much of their R&D budget on this particular technology recovered their outlay years ago in power tool battery sales.

The batteries we use are not vastly different from the earliest ones used to power your drill from Wickes or B&Q. Every garden implement today is available with a cordless model & your local odd-job man almost certainly has cordless power saws, screwdrivers, planes et al.

Ok, the requirements demanded of a bicycle battery are slightly different perhaps to that of a screwdriver but look at what Honda & Toyota for example have achieved in recent years with battery packs in their hybrid cars. If I understand things correctly, Toyota guarantee the Battery and associated components for 8 years which seems pretty good to me. Now their marketing strategy is somewhat different from that of the ebike market in that they price the complete product initially quite a bit higher than comparable vehicles in their particular market sector. People either want a "green" vehicle and are prepared to pay a premium for it.....or they don't.

The cost, so I'm told, of replacing the batteries is very reasonable and nowhere near the cost of a cheap car which seems to be the case in our market. ie, a £500+ battery is more than a cheap ebike new. Unfortunately, the BBC driver I was talking to didn't know the specific details of the costs involved but said his transport manager was extremely happy with the Prius cars in London.

I do like your reference to catch 22 and unless something radical happens, there is little prospect of the ebike market burgeoning as it should. We ebike fans will continue to be viewed as curiosities by many people and likened to trainspotters or birdwatchers.

In my view, some of the people involved ARE making too much profit from batteries and are thus killing off the great potential of ebikes before the wider public get to understand how good and how useful they are.

 

[averhamdave]

I agree with Indalo.

I think it would be really useful for someone to run a thread showing us how we can assemble a battery from cheap parts and value for money cells to replace the standard batteries on our bikes.

Those who have read my other thread will know that my Ezee battery is shot on the Torq. At this point in time I'm not prepared to spend the £400 plus for a replacement but I have coming one of the cheap duct tape batteries from China (36v, 15a) c/w BMS and charger for £185 delivered. Whilst this is for another project it will spend some time on the rack of my Torq.

If I can find a way to incorporate it onto the bike in an aesthetically acceptable manner, I may well be ordering another! However I would sooner find a way of building something into the existing Ezee casing. Anyone got practical advice (as opposed to a generalisation )

 

[NRG]

Flecc that may have been the case a few years ago but RC lip batteries as bare cells with 25C+ discharge rating come in at $100 USA RETAIL or so for 5Ah, the development is done. Add in some cost for case and BMS, duty, VAT markup and warranty cost and £400 is the realistic price for 10Ah 37v battery. 14Ah should cost little more.


Averhamdave, be careful of the cheap eBay batteries, they are cheap for a reason. Typically they will give a safe 1c discharge capability with perhaps 2c burst, fit a 10 ah one to a 20 amp controller and you will be looking form a replacement sooner than you think.

 

[ronipozn]

Most people don't need 15Ah battery. Somewhere between 5-10Ah is enough for the normal urban cyclists.

The industry has to get to a point where e-bikes are cost just a little more then non-motorized bicycles. In that way, many more people will get a change to experience it and get addicated

The point of e-bikes, IMO, is not to replace the car or motorcycle all together (At least for the near future). It should be a cheap, maintenance and tax free vehicle for short errands.

When we will get to a point where all errands would be made by e-bikes, then we should start thinking about other goals.

Improving the charging time is also important. I know that if my lithium battery would be charge much faster, I will need less battery capacity.

 

[NRG]

Too sweeping a statement I'm afraid. It all depends on the terrain, fitness of the rider, weight, hub or crank drive etc etc. 10Ah is a good general compromise for many but there will be large numbers of people who need other capacities at both ends of the scale.

 

[jbond]

Part of the problem here I think is deciding what sort of e-bike we want. The compromise envelope right now is only just good enough to fit what people think they want. If you start with just a bicycle and add just enough assist to take the sting out of the hills, and basically don't use the assist, then weight and cost can be minimised. The example is something like the Brompton conversions here with a Tongxin hub and < 5Ahr RC batteries or the kind of things people on ES are doing with RC based friction drives. But the moment you go to a 250W or higher hub and >=10Ahr batteries and want to really use the assist, the bicycle has gained 5-10Kg and changed into something else. Now you might as well go to 15Ahr, heavier LiFePo batteries and much bigger range and/or much more assist and/or using the assist for much more of the time. Cost, weight and performance, and expectations, all start spiralling upwards. Pretty soon, what you've really created is a moped or an alternative to a small scooter. Do you want a Piaggio ET4 or an electric bicycle?

There's a need for an updated battery FAQ. We've now got a lot of alternatives with a lot of different properties. For instance:-
- LiPo vs LiFePo
- Round Cells vs Prismatic vs Pouch
- Packaged, branded battery packs for specific bicycles with no commonality between manufacturers
- Phylion style rack mount, cased batteries in 2 or 3 styles from several manufacturers, not all good.
- Ping style, shrink wrapped packs in various sizes from various sources (again, not all good)
- RC battery packs with very high C values but low volts and AHr
- Individual A123 cells in 2 or more sizes. Some of which are 2nd hand.
- Headway packs
- UK Supplied vs SE Asia supplied with uncertain support, shipping, duties

And that's before we get into chargers, BMS and connectors as well.

A UK supplied, supported, branded, bicycle-specific pack is inevitably going to be the most expensive possible option. But for non-enthusiasts, it's also the only option. Until the market matures and there's some real mass-market competition (like a Tesco e-Bike) I can't see this changing. If I was running an E-Bike business I'd be trying to keep the initial package price low to get people to buy in. And then bump up the accessories and options prices (like large capacity or replacement batteries) as much as the market will bear.

 

[flecc]

Unfortunately Indalo, this shows how widely this subject is misunderstood.

Li-ion technology has been around for quite a few years now so it's not exactly groundbreaking stuff. Those companies who spent much of their R&D budget on this particular technology recovered their outlay years ago in power tool battery sales.

Not so. The compound cathodes are still in development now and that continues, it took a number of advances specific to e-bikes before the fiasco of lithium introduction to e-bikes in 2006 and 2007 was corrected. Only in the last couple of years have the batteries really improved appreciably, and that's only the expensive high end ones carrying those research costs. The life still shows signs of inadequacy as so many are complaining, so the research and it's cost continues.

Tool use is frequently very different from e-bike use, mainly intermittent, and lithium cells benefit greatly from this and the rests in between. So will your e-bike battery if you are prepared to stop very frequently during every journey.

The cost, so I'm told, of replacing the batteries is very reasonable and nowhere near the cost of a cheap car which seems to be the case in our market. ie, a £500+ battery is more than a cheap ebike new. Unfortunately, the BBC driver I was talking to didn't know the specific details of the costs involved but said his transport manager was extremely happy with the Prius cars in London.

I do know the specific details. The Toyota Prius uses NiMh cells, a very old mature technology, hence the low cost with no research costs added. The reason they last so long is that they are software controlled to operate between 20% and 80% of charge with constant charge cycling, techniques that enable very long life. This is made possible by the battery being much larger than strictly necessary. With even more favourable usage conditions and batteries 7 times larger than necessary, both NiMh and lithium batteries easily last ten years in satellites with over 3500 daily charges.

E-bikes simply cannot enjoy that since both weight and size are limited, so they have to use batteries only just big enough being run in highly stressed conditions, hence the short life and need for the most advanced technology to compensate as much as possible.

It's fair to say that e-bikes have arrived before their time when battery technology simply isn't good enough yet.
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[HarryB]

Most people don't need 15Ah battery. Somewhere between 5-10Ah is enough for the normal urban cyclists.

The industry has to get to a point where e-bikes are cost just a little more then non-motorized bicycles. In that way, many more people will get a change to experience it and get addicated

The point of e-bikes, IMO, is not to replace the car or motorcycle all together (At least for the near future). It should be a cheap, maintenance and tax free vehicle for short errands.

When we will get to a point where all errands would be made by e-bikes, then we should start thinking about other goals.

Improving the charging time is also important. I know that if my lithium battery would be charge much faster, I will need less battery capacity.

Sorry I need more than 10Ah and I am sure there are many more people like me. I don't want to have to charge at work which is a right pain. I could do the return journey (20 miles) on a charge in the summer but the cold weather is taking its toll. Also I hate taking the charge right down twice a day as that would kill the battery more quickly.

 

[eddieo]

while I kinda agree for most users 5-10 Ah is probably all they need. when I go away in our motorhome electrics not always readily available and longer range much more important. By example the recent news re Kalkhoff offering an 18 Ah battery has caused heightened interest in the Panasonic bikes as people like then assurances that a decent range gives........

 

[Stumpi]

Cycling can be a very cheap form of transport and I think over the years we get used to that. We pay no road tax, few of us pay insurance and we get to use the roads for free albeit in some personal danger. Buy a cheap bike and some gear and with simple maintenance all you will need to fork out for is the occasional tyre and brake block. Cycling can also be expensive look at the MTB boys or the Lycra lads a lot of those guys annual spend would keep our ebikes in batteries for years.

Compared to cycling at its very basic level Ebiking may seem expensive but if I compare it with the cost of the my other forms of transport(car/motorcycle) or even my gym membership the £500 every 2 years for a new battery seems pretty good value.

 

[Ultra Motor]

Gents:

Just thought I'd add a manufacturer/distributors perspective.

Batteries are expensive to buy. Although Li-ion has been around for a long time there are also complex BMS systems to install and manage. Then if you also look at the Ultra Motor range of batteries they come packaged in a high quality case, which costs a lot to design, create moulds and ultimately produce.

The new Fast4ward bikes use a slightly lower cost style of case (but still use Panasonic cells) and as such batteries will start around £300, maybe just below.

I think the key is, with anything, pick the quality level you want and the price will follow. Both ours are Sanyo or Panasonic cells, in quality cases and as such production costs are high. I'll also echo Flecc's point that we could probably make a lot more money in a different industry.

I don't think profit is a dirty word that should be ignored or avoided. Profit is crucial to pay staff, build the economy, please stakeholders and of course ensure we are here to keep bringing new innovative products but also support those that we have already put into the market. As long as you receive good value for money then I believe there's nothing wrong with profit.

I hope this gives you a better understanding. I do appreciate batteries aren't cheap and it is a big consideration when purchasing a bike- but quality costs.

 

[subevo]

the best battery ive had so far is a NIMH pack as fitted to the lafree.recelled with fleccs advice for £100 and being going strong now for years.( Turned out old cells were ok it was the charger that was goosed)

bring back NIMH. MUCH BETTER.

 

[flecc]

bring back NIMH. MUCH BETTER.

Hear, Hear, getting rid of high quality D cell NiMh production in favour of lithium was a huge mistake.

They were a bit heavier, but they worked, were reliable, were cheaper when in full production and they lasted.
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