E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time

[flecc]

I agree on battery range, only a little more needed, but the battery life is still a problem at prices they are likely to remain at, unless LiFePO4 lives up to it's promise and becomes acceptable to the e-bike and moped manufacturers. It isn't at the moment.

Lighter and smaller cars is something I consider important, the secondary safety additions of recent years have been making them far heavier than they need be, and many are far larger than necessary. However to succeed with those we will possibly need to do something about modern obesity trends.

And energy? Nuclear I think eventually, it's the only way we'll produce enough electricity for the future electric vehicles which will be a huge demand as fossil fuel ones gradually disappear.
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[James1986]

And energy? Nuclear I think eventually, it's the only way we'll produce enough electricity for the future electric vehicles which will be a huge demand as fossil fuel ones gradually disappear.
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I'm going with nuclear fission and super conducting wires. Its done... theres a man deep in the irish countryside who lives off his own nuclear fission mini plant and shields himself from all knowledge with a superconducting magnetic force field!

At least I think there is


I disagree however, with most peoples statements about capacity not increasing in the near future. With the dawn of the practical ultracapacitor and also the nanoscale graphine manufacturing techniques, I think 2010 to 2020 will be a massive technological leap.

Comparable to the last 20-30 years increase of computing power, our world is about to shift into a new era with power generation/efficiencies and storage methods. It's close, I can feel it in my stereotypically large British teeth!

 

[James1986]

Just a quick bit of info I just found from a company I used to work for:

Coulomb ChargePoint EV stations go live in San Jose (Ind. Report)
Further to our reports of November 25 and December 3, Coulomb Technologies has just launched three EV ChargePoint stations in downtown San Jose. As we've detailed previously, Coulomb will offer subscription plans to PHEV and EV customers, including an introductory Basic Access plan that includes free recharging for 2009.
Subscribers to the Coulomb service pay a one-time $10 setup fee for a charging card that will work at any ChargePoint station. Monthly plans range from $15 per month for 10 night-time charging sessions to $50 per month for unlimited charges.
Coulomb has also set its sights on Europe, and plans to build PHEV and EV recharging stations in several major cities in 2009. (Source: Earth2Tech, January 6, 2009). Contact: Richard Lowenthal, CEO, Coulomb Technologies, (408) 370-3802, richard@coulombtech.com, Coulomb Technologies, Inc..

It seems the infrastructure is well under development!

 

[flecc]

Just a quick bit of info I just found from a company I used to work for:

It seems the infrastructure is well under development!

We're over a year ahead in parts of London with free charging points in some car parks, and free is the model that's being considered or adopted elsewhere in the country to encourage e-vehicle use.

Free public facilities aren't a familiar idea in the very different ideology of the USA, and that could upset their plans for this part of Europe, and I suspect some other countries.
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[rog_london]

We're over a year ahead in parts of London with free charging points in some car parks, and free is the model that's being considered or adopted elsewhere in the country to encourage e-vehicle use.

Free public facilities aren't a familiar idea in the very different ideology of the USA, and that could upset their plans for this part of Europe, and I suspect some other countries.
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Not only in some car parks - I was just off Tottenham Court Road (Store Street, I think) and there was a charging point at the roadside, with one of those dirty great (expensive) scooters (Vectrix?) plugged in. I have seen a few more charging points around that area since, and the associated bay marked 'Electric Vehicle Only' or some such.

Rog.

 

[flecc]

Thanks Rog, I knew the street ones had been spoken of but didn't know if they were in place. There are other UK cities with these facilities but I can't remember which. In this we are miles ahead of the USA, and I think the company James mentions might not have done their market research thoroughly enough.
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[jeronimo479]

Sccoter vs. E-Bike

Here in the U.S. I can't take a scooter on designated bike trails, only streets. I use my electric bike to get to work using a bike trail that reduces my rick of being run over by cars, and it is actually a more direct route to work. The exercise portion is also of significant importance to me. I think Bikes have been around for a long time, and as batteries (or Ultracapacitors) become cheaper and easier to afford, E-Bikes will gain in popularity.

I don't want a scooter, it has no benefit over a motorcycle, and MANY downsides. Nobody is going to pickup my 700lbs Honda ST1300 and walk away with it. The same can't be said for a 100lbs scooter.

 

[flecc]

Nobody is going to pickup my 700lbs Honda ST1300 and walk away with it. The same can't be said for a 100lbs scooter.

or a 40 lbs e-bike.
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[Barry Heaven]

An interesting and thought provoking thread that has resurfaced.

Perhaps e-bikes are in fact the next stage in the evolution of the bicycle. From the first cycle with no pedals, to the safety bike and then the steady progression in efficiency with gears and lower weights, the standard bicycle hasn't got much more scope to improve other than with power assist.

As technologies and batteries improve then perhaps the norm will be e-bikes and non-power assisted bikes will appear as quaint as the ordinary bicycle appears now. As other have pointed out, the constraints to e-bikes evolving more power assistance is the legislation. Freedom from tax, insurance, MOTs etc is a big incentive for e-bikes continued existence alongside powerful pure electric scooters and motorbikes.

Anyway, just my thoughts. Like most predictions of the future it will probably prove to be wrong.

 

[flecc]

Remember that e-scooters are more free of restrictions than other motor vehicles. They pay no road tax, they are exempt congestion charges, they have free parking in some areas where motorcycle charges apply, and sometimes free charging points as well. Insurance cost is low as well.

Some countries allow them to share cycling facilities as well.
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[Barry Heaven]

Remember that e-scooters are more free of restrictions than other motor vehicles. They pay no road tax, they are exempt congestion charges, they have free parking in some areas where motorcycle charges apply, and sometimes free charging points as well. Insurance cost is low as well.

Some countries allow them to share cycling facilities as well.
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Yes, I had forgotten that electric vehicles attract no tax. I do believe that in the longer term that will change though. The zero tax is aimed to encourage take up of low emissions vehicles. However, in the future, when most vehicles will be low emission, the tax shortfall will have to be made up. The most likely option is road pricing which governments would very much like to introduce but know is politically difficult.

 

[monster]

if you get banned from driving the fastest thing you can drive is an ebike. i don't see that changing so ebikes will always be arround. e-scooters and ebikes are the same beast at the end of the day anyway.

 

[Patrick]

Remember that e-scooters are more free of restrictions than other motor vehicles. They pay no road tax, they are exempt congestion charges, they have free parking in some areas where motorcycle charges apply, and sometimes free charging points as well. Insurance cost is low as well.

Some countries allow them to share cycling facilities as well.

Petrol scooters don't do to badly either, they have a very low road tax (£15 pounds if under 150cc), they are exempt from congestion charges, and can be cheap to insure.

In response to the original question I would say that e-scooters do not have any particulary great advantage over e-bikes that is not already possessed by petrol scooters. So the people who choose e-bikes now despite the cheap availability of petrol scooters are unlikely to switch to imporved e-scooters. It's petrol scooters that may not exist in ten years time because of e-scooters.

 

[morphix]

I disagree that scooters will wipe out e-bikes due battery improvements. I think scooters (or maybe even e-cars) could wipe out the combustion engine motorcycle/car, but not wipe out e-bikes. I think e-bikes will always have a market and there's a simple reason. Anyone can ride them, without a license or insurance, and they're the most affordable form of motorised transport. As the technology improves and the distances become even longer (or even unlimited as public charge points become common place) everyone will want one!

 

[eddieo]

Yep e bikes are a gateway vehicle, popular with druggies and boozers who have been banned from driving.....their future is assured!

 

[flecc]

I disagree that scooters will wipe out e-bikes due battery improvements. I think scooters (or maybe even e-cars) could wipe out the combustion engine motorcycle/car, but not wipe out e-bikes. I think e-bikes will always have a market and there's a simple reason. Anyone can ride them, without a license or insurance, and they're the most affordable form of motorised transport. As the technology improves and the distances become even longer (or even unlimited as public charge points become common place) everyone will want one!

You really dug deep to find this thread of mine Morphix!

It was a tongue in cheek thread. At the time the forum was bogged down with consumer ranting and such an unpleasant place that I abandoned it for a while. Hence this comment in my opening post for this subject:

I popped back in, only to see the consumer rows still continuing, so here's something else instead that you can argue about...er, debate.

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[monkoffunk]

Clearly this is a dug up thread, but I think the future for the e-bike is in lightweight, small assist bikes. Something like 125W, that just makes a bike that looks, feels and handles almost identical to any other pedal bike that bit easier to cycle up hills.

The 1000W, large AH toys we have are more suited to being Mopeds I agree.

 

[Chief eZee Power]

LFP / LiFePO4

Yes, lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) is hoped to be ok for 2000 or more charges, but as ever with new technologies there's much disagreement, some experts say 1000, some say 2000 and some say 5000, so we can't be too confident yet.

One unnerving reservation is that e-bike manufacturers have been trying them out for over two years now and still find them too unreliable to introduce.
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We have been testing LFP battery more than 5 years ago, starting with LFP from Valence Technology that worked for about 50 cycles to 50 % retention depite their claims of 1000s cycles !
I am confident today with the LFP we have selected and thoroughly tested over the past years that they would be good for 1000 cycles up to 60 %, and 3 years warranty. If there is a product for 2000 cycles they are maybe out of the reach for what they cost up-front. This pack could also fit into every eZeebike that is on the road will be launch in Spring of 2011. Considering that eZee has been the early bird that intoduced Phylion Li+ battery and suffered terribly from it, we have to ignore all the advertisement about LFP batteries and believe only what we have evaluated ourselves over a long period of time.

I don't know exactly which reg. they fall under but there are already several products out in the German market , eg. Grace bikes, and Elmoto, that goes for 45 kmph and motor > 1 KW, and they are prices at about 8000 Eur or more, and battery with only 12 months warranty.

I think such a bike (with pedalling option) or product with 500 w nominal motor ( it is enough ) for 45 kmph max. and a range of 100 km and 3 years battery warranty would have good market potential, if not in Europe than at least in North America.

Chief eZee Operator

 

[ronipozn]

Clearly this is a dug up thread, but I think the future for the e-bike is in lightweight, small assist bikes. Something like 125W, that just makes a bike that looks, feels and handles almost identical to any other pedal bike that bit easier to cycle up hills.

The 1000W, large AH toys we have are more suited to being Mopeds I agree.

It is indeed an old post

Buy anyhow, I agree with monkoffunk. IMO, e-bike have their place in the very congested urban cities. Even more then e-moped and e-scooters.

I think that E-bike enjoys from every battery technology improvement more then the other vehicles, cause it's energy demands is low so any improvement, even if small,can make a difference.

Also, I'm very curious to hear more what other thinks about MOT, insurance and taxes. To me, it's very appealing to have a car and a second vehicle which doesn't require any licensing and stuff. This are two modes transportation that can be used for completely different means.

 

[flecc]

To me, it's very appealing to have a car and a second vehicle which doesn't require any licensing and stuff. This are two modes transportation that can be used for completely different means.

That's what I do Roni, only I have two cars, a little town car and a larger one for long journeys.

I've also owned up to three e-bikes at times plus a motorbike, but I'm down to one e-bike at present.
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