E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time

[flecc]

That said I found the whole concept of car culture and driving emotionally stressful - driving brought out an agressive side of me which otherwise very rarely shows itself

That's common to very many people Alex, but the attractions of the car are overwhelming for most. The coming of electric cars combined with the ever increasing road traffic restrictions may well lessen this ill effect, since there is something about the nature of internal combustion engines that encourages "competitive" usage.

I decided myself to start cycling in my late 20s - so I wouldn't underestimate the amount of people turning to cycling later in life.....

That certainly happens, but it's not too common and less likely from those who do have driving licences and motor vehicles. I doubt it will ever be an appreciable number.

For instance in the suburb of Kesgrave just outside Ipswich the high school kids are strongly encouraged to ride to school

It's a government initiative so it's the same here and in many nearby areas, but apart from special promotional weeks it's not working. As ever, the many kids who aren't allowed bikes can't cycle to school, and the "playstation" crowd who are driven to school heads down still staring at their little screens are unwilling to cycle.
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[Alex728]

I still feel more affordable electric cars and scooters are a fair way off - more than 10 years given the way the world is going - had a look at the Vectrix review and though its a nice toy it looks like you need the full test for that power and if I had that sort of money I'd (reluctantly) get a petrol vehicle of some sort... (heck, you could buy a decent (used) car for that sort of money!) As much as I do try to protect the environment I'm unwilling to pay too much of a premium to do so..

that said I do think users of fossil fuel powered vehicles may get a nasty shock in 10-20 years given the implications of peak oil..

It's a government initiative so it's the same here and in many nearby areas, but apart from special promotional weeks it's not working. As ever, the many kids who aren't allowed bikes can't cycle to school, and the "playstation" crowd who are driven to school heads down still staring at their little screens are unwilling to cycle.
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this is where the East of England differs greatly from SE England / London - its actually worked and stayed working here. What does make a difference is the headteacher has the courage to strongly discourage children being dropped off by motor (they have to be let out at a distant gate) and he doesn't even make the kids wear helmets! those who don't cycle are encouraged to walk to school, and these days a youth would be ill advised to carry a playstation to school for fear of getting robbed by older youths...

amazingly the do gooders haven't ousted him for "endangering the kids" so thats a good sign - it takes people like this to make a difference.

Whats even better is Kesgrave isn't a right on eco warrior type place but a bog standard suburban estate area, yet this initiative has succeeded....

 

[flecc]

Of course the Vectrix is a high end luxury item, but there will be much cheaper ones. We already had the £999 e-moped introduced last year and it's been a big seller with dealers across the country, and when and if a better battery arrives for it and e-bikes, that sort of thing will be even more popular, especially as it's cheaper than good e-bikes.

We have the kid on kid mugging problem here too of course, probably far worse in Greater London, so I suppose those kids I see playing heads down in mum's car on their way to school just leave the playstation etc in the car ready for the trip home.

I still don't see any evidence that kids will be cycling again as they did in the past, especially as at least half and probably more aren't even allowed to have bikes on the evidence of here.
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[Alex728]

Of course the Vectrix is a high end luxury item, but there will be much cheaper ones. We already had the £999 e-moped introduced last year and it's been a big seller with dealers across the country, and when and if a better battery arrives for it and e-bikes, that sort of thing will be even more popular, especially as it's cheaper than good e-bikes.

I expect it will (found another one at £800) its certainly competitive with the Chinese petrol based equivalents, probably safer and definitely less polluting - but again its something I personally would wait a couple of years for any teething troubles to be ironed out and to see how reliable these machines turn out to be (anyway would need to get the CBT etc..)

I wonder what the Chinese are allowed to ride without license restrictions?

I still don't see any evidence that kids will be cycling again as they did in the past, especially as at least half and probably more aren't even allowed to have bikes on the evidence of here.
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I doubt it will reach the levels of your youth - especially not in London where even many adults appear to find cycling to be a scary business - (have things changed since the C-charge?) - or even the levels of cycling just before my teenage years (which is when IMO things started to go pear shaped) but I've definitely noticed a change since moving further away from the capital - there's a return to the late 70s/80s culture and "slower living" and cycling amongst all ages is part of this.. of course this is unlikely to happen in every region but at least there are some glimmers of hope... (Suffolk CC has been complimented by counterparts in the Netherlands for succesfully encouraging cycling at various schools in the county!)

 

[essexman]

The only real prospect for future e-bikes rests with cyclists and ex cyclists as it does now, and that will always be a very small proportion of the British public in the foreseeable future.

I totally agree with Flecc, in that the future of ebikes is linked to the future of cycling. So in say holland, denmark etc the market will probably continue to expand and canabilise normal bikes.

Parts of the Uk and the US are both having a mini popular cycling rennaissance at the minute. London is the obvious beacon but the example extends elsewhere. The factors that may extend the rennaissance could be:
-Potential huge investement in cycling infrastructure
-Fuel and cost of living may spiral upwards again
-People starting to take more responsibility for their personal health
-Continued Social Normalisation of cycling
-Continued cycle training investment
-Growing elderly and retired population (grey pound)

Technologies that support these drivers eg cool , functional and cheap ebikes will enable cycle rates to increase. The bikes we ride now are only really hitting functional the other factors need to come into play.

 

[flecc]

I doubt it will reach the levels of your youth - especially not in London where even many adults appear to find cycling to be a scary business - (have things changed since the C-charge?) -

Adult cycling in London has boomed since the congestion charge, up 83% more than a year ago and probably more now. Outside commuting hours it's much less of course, and even that near doubling still leaves the total relatively small.

With kids it's completely the reverse, virtually zero now. Reason? They have free public transport at all hours over the whole of Greater London to the age of 16, or 18 if in full time education. They've taken total advantage of this, the top decks of buses sometimes like mobile youth clubs and they love the facility, often going for rides in groups just for something to do and somewhere to go. As you might guess, many adults hate this!

This initiative has grown over the last seven years or so and is intended to foster the use of public transport as the normal thing to do as they grow. It's too early yet to known if it's succeeded, though there are positive signs and it could work and reduce the number of 16/17 year olds diving straight to mopeds and cars. Apart from the developed habit, the remaining one or two years of free travel for many will be a powerful attraction, delaying getting their own transport.

It's been an absolute killer for youth cycling though, and the lack of it will have a serious future effect.
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[Alex728]

I totally agree with Flecc, in that the future of ebikes is linked to the future of cycling. So in say holland, denmark etc the market will probably continue to expand and canabilise normal bikes.

Parts of the Uk and the US are both having a mini popular cycling rennaissance at the minute.

whats it like round your way? you can't be too far away from me I guess..

Also, East Anglia is only separated by the North Sea from NL/DK and there is a big crossover in cultures which spans centuries (actually I have seen a few "European" style utility bikes here...)

 

[Alex728]

With kids it's completely the reverse, virtually zero now. Reason? They have free public transport at all hours over the whole of Greater London to the age of 16, or 18 if in full time education. They've taken total advantage of this, the top decks of buses sometimes like mobile youth clubs and they love the facility, often going for rides in groups just for something to do and somewhere to go. As you might guess, many adults hate this!

ah - I had forgotten about this - it explains a lot and is a major difference between London (which has always had a reasonable public transport network) and the provincial areas or even other metropolitan areas.

When I lived in London (around age 18-19) I never actually considered getting a bicycle, I was sure it would either get nicked or I would get run over, and no matter what hours of the day or night you were about there was always public transport.

round here although buses to get a young person or other non-driver to school / work at "standard" hours are plentiful, some areas have no weekend services and evening services are very patchy.

 

[flecc]

And the bus service has improved too. Although crowded in the rush hours, kids leisure travel is outside those and the buses are still plentiful and fairly empty then. In my area there's continuous feeder buses serving the trams (also free) from about 4.30 am to at least half an hour after midnight, the trams in turn going to a wide span of South London. With a large range of bus routes out of Croydon as well, the scope for free kids travel is endless. Cycling doesn't get a look in.

It's an irony that one green initiative has killed another.

 

[James1986]

Hi Guys,

I only just came across this post, so please excuse me for going backwards a bit.

Over the next 10 years several things will happen.

Battery technology will get much better, and we will start to see combinations of supercapacitors and batteries similar to what eestor is proposing (possibly too early to tell). With this will come the dawn of the Electric Vehicle age. Everything will start to change to electric vehicles (the advantages are just too great), but there will still be the divide as most people suggest. People will still want to ride bicycles, it will just be in a different vehicle class.

In terms of global legislation, once again, once the goverment gets tired of loosing money from people who build their own HEV's then they will impose taxes and regsitration requirements. That goes without saying...However, a lot more could be done to make e-bikes accesible, and feasible as a form of transport. How about a £5 admin fee to register your e-bike so that you can make use of the higher 30mph on road speed limit. Higher speed makes the concept far more attractive, and as the vehicle is registered people, the law can be enforced. The e-bikes and conversion kits will be far cheaper than a moped so its the obvious choice. And once again, with better battery technology (which IS coming) 70 miles a charge for 3000+ charges won't seem like such a bad idea.

The infrastructure doesn't actually have to change that much. Once the mass market makes the switch, and the technology is good enough (which it will be) you will charge your car/bike/whatever in 30 seconds with a huge electro-dump of power (such is the benefits of nano scale ultracap technologies) from any power socket. Justin from e-bikes.ca topped up at petrol stations on his cross canada tour, as they had external sockets. So all it takes is a giant multi-tap built next to the existing stations, with wires thick enough to handle 1000A or so.... not that thick

So, in 10 years, people will still ride bikes, choose cars for longer journeys or wet weather, or go public transport to avoid the peak time traffic.

Only difference is that it will be electricity, not carbon, that fuels the vehicles.

 

[Tiberius]

Hi Guys,

Over the next 10 years several things will happen.

Battery technology will get much better, and we will start to see combinations of

Ah, the optimism of the young. I'd better get in quick before flecc does.

Let me offer another scenario. Technological progress on the electrical/electronic front stalls but continues on the biological one. The term "Li-Po" takes on a new meaning as diy suction kits reach a mass market. The true human-electric hybrid bicycle is created.

Remember that human fat tissue has about the same energy density as petrol. Once the connector types are standardised the rider can be plugged into the bicycle and deliver the power either through the leg muscles or directly to the fuel cell. Regrettably, French riders and British bicycles have incompatible connections; some things never change.

For a few years the scheme is supported by government grants, but then despite the obvious social and health benefits is taxed out of existence to support the new Channel 16 Propaganda multimedia broadcast system.

Nick

 

[flecc]

Much of that radically different future could well come about James, but I'd take you up on one point, that e-bikes will be much cheaper than mopeds and able to hold their own.

I doubt that since the e-bikes demand will be smaller in the future worldwide for the same reasons as it is now. That's why already we can buy perfectly viable e-mopeds for far less than decent e-bikes. In addition the moped will continue to have intrinsic advantages over bikes that can be viably cycled, comfort, weather protection, reliability, lack of maintenance needs, and it will always be faster since I cannot envisage any future that will allow powered bicycles to travel at 30 mph under power.

There will probably always be those who like to cycle with power assist, but I don't see them ever being anything other than a small minority which never reaches the critical mass for widespread use to appear.
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[flecc]

Remember that human fat tissue has about the same energy density as petrol.

But human fat is to be outlawed Nick.

We already see the preparations for that in the anti-obesity campaigns, amongst later steps being personal taxation bands based on Body Mass Index and penalties for those who occupy one and a half bus seats.
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[Tiberius]

Hey, I'm just pointing out that most light electric vehicles are actually carrying around a loaded fuel tank as well. Seems a pity to waste it.

I'll wager you that we see a direct fat burning vehicle before we see a ten-fold improvement in battery performance. Let's put something worthwhile on it, how about 100 MJ of high grade chemical energy.

Nick

 

[flecc]

I'll wager you that we see a direct fat burning vehicle before we see a ten-fold improvement in battery performance. Let's put something worthwhile on it, how about 100 MJ of high grade chemical energy.

Nick

I'm fully in agreement Nick, so no wager from me. I wouldn't even bet an a twofold improvement in overall battery performance.

Lead-acid still rules!
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[James1986]

Ha! Thats brilliant!

Whislt my youth makes me hopeful, it's also the subject of my degree, so I'm planning on helping out as much as I can once I hit the industry, (and once I have some private capital to invest in it). EEStor are working with GM and their Volt, which is going into production pretty soon. EEStor are supposed to start mass production mid 2009 so by the end of the year we could have an energy storage medium the same size as a lithium ion pack that can take us 300 miles or more on a 4-5 minute charge.

Whislt I think the production dates are a bit optimistic, surely they can get this out to the masses within 10 years!

So there!


Also, on a previous comment, I think the timeline should go like this!

Stone Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age, Philosophical Age, Alchamic/Mechanical Age, Industrial Age, Carbon Age, Electric Age, Quantum Age, Space Age


Not sure what comes next, but it could be the Age of War! (Based on the popular game Total Annihilation )

 

[flecc]

by the end of the year we could have an energy storage medium the same size as a lithium ion pack that can take us 300 miles or more on a 4-5 minute charge.

It's just that word "could" that's been the bane of the battery industry.

It seems to be a synonym for won't.
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[Tiberius]

Not sure what comes next, but it could be the Age of War! (Based on the popular game Total Annihilation )

The Virtual Age. In the virtual age it is not necessary to actually build anything new; you just have to dream it up and announce it. This is the age in which the restrictive connections between reality and belief are finally overthrown. Which reminds me, you left out the Dark Ages.

What course are you doing James?

Nick
(Physics)

 

[rog_london]

Lead acid batteries

I'm in the fire alarm business, so we use huge numbers of Dryfit lead acid batteries. Much of what applies to them applies to 'wet' cells too, but Dryfits (or SLAs - Sealed Lead Acid) tend to be used on the cheaper type of e-bike. Some interesting details:

(1) In general manufacturers quote the storage capacity of their batteries at around 20 degrees C and a discharge at the 20 hour rate. So, if you have a 12 volt 65 amp hour battery (which weighs around 23kg, so you wouldn't want to add an e-bike to that for a start) that's only a 3.25 amp discharge. If you discharge at the 5 hour rate (13 amps, about 150 watts) its capacity drops to 55 amp hours. At the 1 hour rate you only get slightly less than 40 amp hours, and this is a discharge to 1.6 volts per cell. These values are obviously scalable to the smaller SLA (Sealed Lead Acid) batteries sometimes used on e-bikes, and may give you some idea of the design limitations.

(2) SLAs are much more tolerant of deep discharge than the corresponding wet cell batteries, BUT they are still damaged by it and especially so if they are not recharged promptly. Even being left 'flat' for a couple of days can make a huge difference.

(3) If you habitually discharge an SLA fully (but not deep discharge) you may get less than 200 discharge cycles before the capacity gets seriously affected (down to 60% of capacity when new). If you only discharge to 50% before recharging, you should fare much better - maybe 450 discharge cycles. However, if you only discharge about one third before recharging, you may expect a life of around 1200 cycles.

(4) Apart from that, there is also a clock ticking - shelf life. In our climate where temperatures are generally not above 20 degrees C the shelf life of an SLA when properly looked after may be as much as 10 years. This is seriously shortened if the storage temperature rises - a car battery in the tropics may give up in under two years, because it gets fried under the bonnet of a car.

You may realise from this why there is some effort being put into more appropriate battery technology. Weight is of course the big problem - the energy stored in our 23kg example is only 12x65=780 watt hours at the 20 hour rate, and you could probably derate this to about 500 watt hours at the sort of current demands of an e-bike. This is around the same rating as the Li-Ion battery fitted to a Wisper, which weighs (I think) 3.6 kilos.

As Flecc and others have said, though, if weight is not a consideration, lead acid rules. You know where you are with a lead acid battery. It performs to well-known standards, and within those design limitations it's pretty well 100% reliable. So, cheap and cheerful they may be, but you won't be sending yet another one back to the shop for a warranty replacement. Rather like the bicycle itself, it's a mature product, which the modern hi-tech ones certainly are not.

Rog.

 

[James1986]

I am doing a Bsc/Hons Design Engineering degree, which pretty much leaves me open to join any field of either design or engineering... or both! The modules I have taken are pretty varied so I hope I have a basic understanding of most principles. I want to take a Masters in something like Engineering Physics or Mechatronics when I graduate, but who knows!

Thanks for the info on SLA's Rog, and I agree with what you say about if weight isn't an issue. Sadly, for most 2 wheeled bikes it is! It makes them cumbersome, and doesn't help stability.

A lot of enthusiasts are raving about the A123 Systems Li-FePo batteries. Check google (or your prefered search engine) from info on how they work, but in short, they are damn good for todays market; and they work well!

They can accept up to 10A of current without heating up, which is enough to quick charge your pack in about 20 minutes!

They aren't very available at the moment, and most people pull apart the 36v DeWalt power tool packs to grab the cells and make a custom pack.

This brings me nicely back to my final year project. Basically I'm going to be using these packs as an 'add on when you want more range' system. They come included with an on board BMS system for cell balancing and at a cost of £65 a pack for 2.3Ah, its a bargain.

They weigh 1 kg each so 4 packs gives a 9.2Ah system at 4kg for a cost of roughly £260. Thanks to their unique manufacturing system they also boast over 2000 recharge cycles; more than 2 years worth I'd expect!

Apologies if anyone knew this already...

James