Dalston fatal e-bike crash rider 'going too fast' - Court Case

[Artstu]

That would be crazy.

Exactly.

 

[trevor brooker]

He's alleged to have been moving at 30mph in a 20mph limit. The stopping distance for an average car at 30mph is 23m, 9m to think and 14m to brake.

Know your stopping distances | AA

Learn about stopping distances, thinking distance, braking distance and factors like speeds and conditions that influence them. Know your stopping distances

www.theaa.com

I don't know the stopping distance for a heavy ebike but I imagine that its further for the reasons I listed earlier.

I thought I would try to look at this from a calculation rather than emotive view point.

the only bicycle stopping website I could find https://www.exploratorium.edu/cycling/brakes2.html
No options to allow for different types of brakes nor weight of bike/rider but it does offer a speed comparison.

So if he was doing 30mph stopping distance = 10m
or if he was doing 20mph stopping distance = 5m

Distance covered at 30mph = 13m per second
distance covered at 20mph = 9m per second

Looking at the video there is approximately 1 second between her setting foot on the road & impact.

So assuming that he braked immediately without allowing for thinking time at 30mph in that 1 second he would have travelled 13m, but in theory could have stopped in 10m.

Whereas at 20mph in 1 second he would have travelled 9m, but could have stopped in 5m.

But if you add in thinking time it changes completly
at 30mph thinking time is 9m
at 20mph thinking time is 6m

So if he had been paying full attention & looking at her when she stopped off the pavement & his hands were already covering the brakes

at 30mph in 1 second (thinking time 9m + stopping 10m) = 19m = accident as distance covered 13m
at 20mph in 1 second (thinking time 6m + stopping 5m) = 11m = accident as distance covered 9m

So it would appear that whatever his speed he could not have prevented hitting her, but the level of injury was proportional to the impact speed, so if he had been going at 20mph & braked it would have reduced the severity of the impact dramatically.

 

[flecc]

Most Drivers Don't Follow Strict Speed Limits, Statistics Show | PetrolPrices

The new Department for Transport government statistics for 2017 reveal that most drivers don’t follow 20mph speed limits.

www.petrolprices.com

These limits do work though, albeit in a different way.

For example my London Borough introduced a borough wide 20 limit with only the main through routes exempted.

Before the 20 limit the spine road running through my estate had a 30 limit but was commonly driven at 35 to 45 mph.

The 20 limit signs went up a couple of years ago and since then the common speed on it now is 25 to 35 mph with most at below 30. So it's achieved over 10 mph reduction overall.

I see this as an acceptable compromise, the limit guided by law but refined by the individual to their circumstances.
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[Andy McNish]

The problem is that you don't just emergency stop whenever a pedestrian steps off a kerb in a busy town or city, especially on a bike and especially if you don't know what is behind you.

Loads of pedestrians step off kerbs having seen you coming in the middle of he road with the intention of letting you past - jaywalking as Yanks might call it.
You should be aware of them and slow down but when you go into full emergency stop mode is usually when you actually anticipate a likely collision if you don't.

He isn't driving out into a crowd of crossing pedestrians or even towards a single pedestrian with a 'get out of my way pleb' mentality.

She seems to even speed up and be totally oblivious to him. I think he does try to go around her/apply brakes at the very end but by the time he realises a collision is imminent it's just too late.

Could he have been more aware? Yes.
Should he have been? Possibly- really hard to tell from the angles IMHO.

Was he going faster than the speed limit on a illegal bike? Yes, by the looks of it although speed is hard to guage from that video.

Was it faster than countless mopeds, motorbikes, cars and vans had gone down that same road that morning? Probably not, if we're being honest.

An awful tragedy of course. And that's the first thing any of us see when looking at the video.

But his driving isn't that out of the norm IMHO and that is probably why they haven't gone with the more serious offences of death by reckless driving or even manslaughter.

Also I can't understand why she would almost sprint out across a busy junction without even bothering to look either way. He was lit up like a Xmas tree, so she surely would have seen him with with a simple glance.
All very sad...

 

[Deleted member 25121]

The 20 limit signs went up a couple of years ago and since then the common speed on it now is 25 to 35 mph with most at below 30. So it's achieved over 10 mph reduction overall.

What do you think the average speed is now in areas where there are lots of pedestrians?

 

[scott gaza]

Looking at video he traveled about 40-50m in 10 secs as far as i can see not in the 3 second it would have been at 30 mph = 133m in 10sec. Sad but, true he was still 10mph over seep limit as he should never have been on the road in the first place. Assumed responsibility even tho there was no way he could have avoided her as she was running straight at him.

 

[flecc]

What do you think the average speed is now in areas where there are lots of pedestrians?

Using the same road to inform, it's crawl speed. The only zone on it where there's lots of pedestrians is outside the primary school area at going in and out times, and we all creep through then at around a walking pace. There's a zebra crossing at one end, but some first year parents and children like to cross at their exit at the other end so we all treat that as though it's also a zebra crossing, stopping as soon as we see anyone approaching to cross.

The only other high density pedestrian area around here is the Selsdon shopping centre which is on a 30mph main through route. The weight of traffic, cars attempting to park, unloading, bus stops and traffic lights at the far end often slow that to a crawl too.
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[Michael Price]

Apparently it was said in court that he was doing 30 mph - so I am assuming that this is accurate

BUT

it does seem kinda suspicious - if they had said 28 - or 32 it would be more likely

Does anyone know anything about how it was calculated??
maybe a police car drove past at 30mph amd they checked progress between 2 marks???
That's what I would do but anyone know better - or was it just an extimate

I do however note that it doesn't seem to have been challenged in court

 

[flecc]

Apparently it was said in court that he was doing 30 mph

I do however note that it doesn't seem to have been challenged in court

Which probably means he was doing well over 30 so is very happy to accept the lower estimate.
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[scott gaza]

Hi at 30 mph or 48 kmph you would travel 13.3m/s. in the video there is i normal bike that just past 5-6 seconds before she runs out on to the road, and takes about 10-12 seconds to be in line with the pedestrian crossing! Also in the bbc photo there is objects strewn on the road at the crossing sum what suspicious to me, as if there was no video it would look like that was where impact occurred? Also when coming in to view he should have been opposite nandos and only 2mm in size not the 16-17mm observed! RIP Ms Cihan

 

[BazP]

I don't know the answer to this but I was just wondering if this prosecution was mainly based on his speed or the fact that he was on an illegal bike, which would make it easier to prosecute. If he had been on a non electric bike then there would have been no speed limit to factor in.

 

[Andy McNish]

I don't know the answer to this but I was just wondering if this prosecution was mainly based on his speed or the fact that he was on an illegal bike, which would make it easier to prosecute. If he had been on a non electric bike then there would have been no speed limit to factor in.

Wouldn't they have had to go with 'furious' cycling or similar Victorian offence? Unless it was so bad as to be straight up manslaughter.

 

[gw8izr]

A flick of the handlebars 0.5 degrees to the left and he would have passed behind her.. maybe hit someone else.. maybe gone over the bars and broke his neck hitting the lamp post.... Going slower might have saved the day.. having an extra slice of toast in the morning would have put him 500m from her....

but here is the thing, no one knows what might have happened.....

 

[Deleted member 25121]

I don't know the answer to this but I was just wondering if this prosecution was mainly based on his speed or the fact that he was on an illegal bike, which would make it easier to prosecute. If he had been on a non electric bike then there would have been no speed limit to factor in.

The bike is classified as a motor vehicle and as such he's being prosecuted for causing death by careless driving.

Dalston fatal e-bike crash rider 'going too fast'

Thomas Hanlon is charged with causing the death of pedestrian Sakine Cihan by careless driving.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think the fact that the machine was illegal is a secondary issue.

 

[Nealh]

Furious cycling is for legal pushbikes or pedelecs , he was riding a light moped unlicensed/unregistered so comes under motoring offence jurisdiction and not pushbike law.

 

[Andy McNish]

Furious cycling is for legal pushbikes or pedelecs , he was riding a light moped unlicensed/unregistered so comes under motoring offence jurisdiction and not pushbike law.

We know. I was answering the question as to what would have happened had he been on a non-electric bike.

 

[flecc]

but here is the thing, no one knows what might have happened.....

In over 70 years of cycling, 67 years of driving and over 50 years of motorcycling, much of it in crowded London, I've hurt no-one, not even myself.

So I can say what would have happened had he been similarly safety minded:

Nothing.
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[gw8izr]

In over 70 years of cycling, 67 years of driving and over 50 years of motorcycling, much of it in crowded London, I've hurt no-one, not even myself.

So I can say what would have happened had he been similarly safety minded:

Nothing.
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The odds of this incident occurring and the severity of the outcome were stacked against him due to his excessive speed, the lack of attention by both parties does seem contributory, that does appear to be the case.

My comments were directed to those in this thread speculating about how fast he was travelling, what he should’ve done , What she should have done et cetera and I stand by those comments. No one knows what might of happened, we only know what did happen.

I have driven many many miles throughout the world in a wide variety of vehicles, I dare say more than most. I am not arrogant enough to believe that my conduct alone was responsible for safe passage.

 

[sjpt]

In over 70 years of cycling, 67 years of driving and over 50 years of motorcycling, much of it in crowded London, I've hurt no-one, not even myself.

So I can say what would have happened had he been similarly safety minded:

Nothing.
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I'm afraid you can't quite say that, though clearly your care has considerably reduced the risks. There are lots of riders all over UK riding as badly (and illegally) as our Dalston rider who have not (yet) had an accident; and a few very careful drivers/riders who have been unlucky enough to have a bad accident almost through no fault of their own.

 

[flecc]

I am not arrogant enough to believe that my conduct alone was responsible for safe passage.

Nor am I, my safety record on the roads is as much due to everyone around me. But it starts with ourselves, not only by our own safe conduct but in the example we continuously set.
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