Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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a year ago today, the Pound was worth $1.367.
Some 19% drop. It's not hard to figure out where inflation comes from.
Does anyone know another way to claw back the losses other than for interest rate to go up?
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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zelenskiy fights for independence from Russia, Putin fights for the old Russian empire.
Surely independence is a more motivating, don't you agree?
Also, they are fighting in Ukraine, the locals will always have superior number of manpower. As far as I can see, Putin will fail, it's just a matter of time.
These factors don't alter the fact that Russia, whether with Putin or not, cannot lose all the gained territory. Even the Russian people will not accept that after the huge cost in lives so far. They are still smarting from the loss of the USSR and have never come to terms with that.

That is what the referenda are about, justifying on democratic grounds hanging onto the pro Russian areas like Donbass in any coming negotiations.

They either keep enough territory to satisfy the hawks and the general population, or the conflict escalates very dangerously.
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oyster

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The selloff in the pound is gathering pace – sterling is down two cents against the US dollar.

At just $1.105, sterling is getting worryingly close to the $1.10 level.

UPDATE: sterling now down well below $1.11 against dollar. Now closer to $1.10.
When @KwasiKwarteng began his speech it was around $1.12. pic.twitter.com/yyy6E9QNQV
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) September 23, 2022
The pound has also shed a eurocent against the euro to €1.132 – this sterling slump isn’t just about the strong dollar.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says there is a “fire sale of UK assets” that is “absolutely horrible to watch”, as UK government bonds prices tumble too.

The reaction in the bond market to the misnamed mini-Budget (it was anything but mini!) is striking with yields surging after the chancellor unveiled sweeping tax cuts that abandon any semblance of fiscal discipline.

It means more borrowing and more borrowing costs. This is not the reaction any chancellor wants from a budget but what else could he expect?
The UK’s FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares is also under real pressure, down over 2%.

It has just fallen through 7,000 points for the first time since June, with European stock markets also being hit by fears of a looming recession.
 
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jonathan.agnew

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a year ago today, the Pound was worth $1.367.
Some 19% drop. It's not hard to figure out where inflation comes from.
Does anyone know another way to claw back the losses other than for interest rate to go up?
Am stating the obvious, and it's been said before here, but in a parallel world we have a labour govt with a Marshall plan that use tax money to develop the economy, jobs, build medium longer term demand responsibly. Kwartengs cynical idea that BoE should tame inflation the govt fuel with borrowing and surging gilt rates and a weaker pound) simply push us deeper into recession.
 
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Woosh

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These factors don't alter the fact that Russia, whether with Putin or not, cannot lose all the gained territory. Even the Russian people will not accept that after the huge cost in lives so far. They are still smarting from the loss of the USSR and have never come to terms with that.
Just image the opposition to the war in Russia if 300,000 were sent to fight in Ukraine.
a lot of Russians are born after the USSR collapsed (1991), they don't have the nostalgia of communism. How many do you reckon are willing to fight to 'regain' Ukraine?
Unlike in the Russo Afghanistan war, Ukrainian soldiers are just as well equipped now as Russians.
 

Danidl

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I was speaking of the two leaders, Zelenskyy and Putin, both as bone headed and neither ever having any clue how to negotiate effectively. The irresistable force versus an immovable object, whichever way they are assigned.

Putin's sell by date was decades ago, he's a dinosaur who should never have been fast tracked to the top by Yeltsin.
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There cannot be a negotiation. Negotiation requires good faith or an external guarantor. Ukraine wants nothing from Russia and has nothing it is prepared to trade. .. It might have , had Russia stopped at Crimea There is no major power prepared to act as guarantor for Russia.. it has burned its collateral with India, and China is unwilling to support a loser..even if it wanted to counterbalance the USA . The world knows that Russia's word is worthless
 

Danidl

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Just image the opposition to the war in Russia if 300,000 were sent to fight in Ukraine.
a lot of Russians are born after the USSR collapsed (1991), they don't have the nostalgia of communism. How many do you reckon are willing to fight to 'regain' Ukraine?
Unlike in the Russo Afghanistan war, Ukrainian soldiers are just as well equipped now as Russians.
The indications are that it is not partial ,it is discriminative,in that anyone the local mayors want rid of get call up papers, any of the protestors arrested last night will be immediately given papers, and rudimentary training before capital punishment in Ukraine I also suspect that there soon will be checkpoints on the sideroads leading to the borders and any young man will be be questioned ,while his call up papers are being printed in the next hut. Once papers are served the unfortunates are under military service rules
 

Woosh

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in a parallel world we have a labour govt with a Marshall plan that use tax money to develop the economy, jobs, build medium longer term demand responsibly.
I am not convinced that a Marshall plan would even work. The whole Western sphere has entered low growth phase for the last 30 years and with education in developing countries catching up with ours, there isn't a specific area we can quickly get into and dominate. We could have done well in wind power but our shortermism killed that opportunity.
Our growth rate (average 2.2% in the last 70 years) is achieved usually by consumer credits and inflation, not productivity gain.
 
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jonathan.agnew

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I am not convinced that a Marshall plan would even work. The whole Western sphere has entered low growth phase for the last 30 years and with education in developing countries catching up with ours, there isn't a specific area we can quickly get into and dominate. We could have done well in wind power but our shortermism killed that opportunity.
Our growth rate (average 2.2% in the last 70 years) is achieved usually by consumer credits and inflation, not productivity gain.
Well silicon valley was built on the intersection between a lot of skilled science (many well funded universities in calfornia) and steady big (unfortunately defense, but hey ho, the cold war gave us the www) government spending. We could recreate thse conditions and hope we stumble onto the next big thing by fostering innovation. Instead of becoming the international hub for tax avoidance and dodgy offshore assets.
 

Woosh

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Lawrence Summers, Secretary of US Treasury under Clinton, said this about LT's and KK's plan announced today:

quote:

It makes me very sorry to say, but I think the UK is behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market.

Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having pursuing the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time...

It would not surprise me if the pound eventually gets below a dollar, if the current path is maintained.

This is simply not a moment for the kind of naïve, wishful thinking, supply-side economics that is being pursued in Britain.

end quote.

KK did not sound convincing this morning. JRM did not sound convincing on fracking yersterday. Coffey did not sound convincing on her ABCD plan the day before.
I won't be surprised if LT will call an early GE.
 
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flecc

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I am not convinced that a Marshall plan would even work. The whole Western sphere has entered low growth phase for the last 30 years and with education in developing countries catching up with ours, there isn't a specific area we can quickly get into and dominate. We could have done well in wind power but our shortermism killed that opportunity.
Our growth rate (average 2.2% in the last 70 years) is achieved usually by consumer credits and inflation, not productivity gain.
Perfecty summed up, with only the addition that our UK low growth phase has been for over 70 years.
.
 

flecc

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We could recreate these conditions and hope we stumble onto the next big thing by fostering innovation.
"Could" being like all the other things we could have done in the last 70 years.

But we didn't, simply because we lack the enterprise, enthusiasm and will to make the effort. Talking about them is usually as far as we get.

Examples being The Northern Powerhouse. HS2 connecting Edinbugh, Glasgow and all places in between to London and the Continent. Heathrow's third, fourth and fifth runways. And of course the miracle of Brexit bringing us untold wealth and prosperity.

We are successful with tourism of course, but that's because it gets done to us, we don't have to create it. We only have to cope with it when it arrives, either by airliner or rubber boats crossing the channel.
.
 

oyster

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Lawrence Summers, Secretary of US Treasury under Clinton, said this about LT's and KK's plan announced today:

quote:

It makes me very sorry to say, but I think the UK is behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market.

Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having pursuing the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time...

It would not surprise me if the pound eventually gets below a dollar, if the current path is maintained.

This is simply not a moment for the kind of naïve, wishful thinking, supply-side economics that is being pursued in Britain.

end quote.

KK did not sound convincing this morning. JRM did not sound convincing on fracking yersterday. Coffey did not sound convincing on her ABCD plan the day before.
I won't be surprised if LT will call an early GE.
I consider LT's government now as acting without a mandate. We, not even the ones who voted tory last time, do not endorse these policies. They were not on the table at the last GE - neither to be accepted nor rejected.
 
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Woosh

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I consider LT's government now as acting without a mandate. We, not even the ones who voted tory last time, do not endorse these policies. They were not on the table at the last GE - neither to be accepted nor rejected.
I reckon they'll wait for the winter to bite and call the new GE, hoping people would vote for continuity when faced with high energy bills.
Borrow to buy votes.
 
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oyster

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I've just sent my (tory) MP an email wishing him well in his new job. :)

(Smiley added but that is literally what I said.)
 

oldgroaner

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Putin is not reframing the conflict, it IS the West versus Russia, in particular the USA and its pet anti-communist project NATO, outnumbering Russia's population well over 6 to 1.

With most of those NATO countries donating weapons to Ukraine, including the most advanced ones, how is it not the West en masse versus Russia?

Russia and Europe jointly did end the cold war three decades ago, but the USA would not let it go, due to their intense hatred of communism. So much for their professed democracy, it's only their right wing capitalist kind they accept.

Biden is playing a very dangerous game. Russia's response to the concerted Western arms could be to rebalance it by using a multi warhead nuclear missile to destroy Kiev and end the war that way.

Then what could Biden do for all his bluff, launch a nuclear attack on Russia and receive the entire huge Russian nuclear arsenal, wrecking the USA?

I think not.
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That's both good and original
But the parts that are good aren't original
And the parts that are original aren't good
 
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oldgroaner

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These factors don't alter the fact that Russia, whether with Putin or not, cannot lose all the gained territory. Even the Russian people will not accept that after the huge cost in lives so far. They are still smarting from the loss of the USSR and have never come to terms with that.

That is what the referenda are about, justifying on democratic grounds hanging onto the pro Russian areas like Donbass in any coming negotiations.

They either keep enough territory to satisfy the hawks and the general population, or the conflict escalates very dangerously.
.
So be it, let Putin get away with it and it will simply happen again somewhere else.
There's an old saying

Visit Russia
Before Russia visits you!


Incidentally Putin was supposed to be intent on preventing Nato member states being on Russia's Border.
What a master strategist eh?
No, he's simply a Fascist thug with imperialist ambitions.
 

oyster

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So be it, let Putin get away with it and it will simply happen again somewhere else.
There's an old saying

Visit Russia
Before Russia visits you!


Incidentally Putin was supposed to be intent on preventing Nato member states being on Russia's Border.
What a master strategist eh?
No, he's simply a Fascist thug with imperialist ambitions.
Despite being part of the USSR for years, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were very keen to leave.
Vyborg didn't manage to remain Finnish.
Russia was all too happy with questionable matters of belonging and governing when it was in the driving seat.
 

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