Brexit, for once some facts.

[jonathan.agnew]

Have you all got up this morning and felt a wave of relief washing over you? Thank goodness for Truss and her dismissals rejecting the threat of Putin and his missiles.

Liz Truss dismisses Putin’s nuclear threats as sign of desperation

Yes in a parralel universe this happened

Putin is shouting at his own people, not us

By reframing the conflict as the West versus Russia, the president’s speech was intended to justify an unpopular call-up

www.thetimes.co.uk

For me Biden is the unlikely hero (rare phenomenon, an old democrat that unlike say Obama or Merkel has grit, and savvy when it's needed)

 

[flecc]

Putin is not reframing the conflict, it IS the West versus Russia, in particular the USA and its pet anti-communist project NATO, outnumbering Russia's population well over 6 to 1.

With most of those NATO countries donating weapons to Ukraine, including the most advanced ones, how is it not the West en masse versus Russia?

Russia and Europe jointly did end the cold war three decades ago, but the USA would not let it go, due to their intense hatred of communism. So much for their professed democracy, it's only their right wing capitalist kind they accept.

Biden is playing a very dangerous game. Russia's response to the concerted Western arms could be to rebalance it by using a multi warhead nuclear missile to destroy Kiev and end the war that way.

Then what could Biden do for all his bluff, launch a nuclear attack on Russia and receive the entire huge Russian nuclear arsenal, wrecking the USA?

I think not.
.

 

[Woosh]

Biden is playing a very dangerous game. Russia's response to the concerted Western arms could be to rebalance it by using a multi warhead nuclear missile to destroy Kiev and end the war that way

if Putin deploys nuclear weapons, even only low yield, it won't end the war.
It will destroy Russia completely and most of Europe's capitals. WW3 will be for real.
As you said, NATO has superior manpower and weaponry. Russia can't win.
Soon enough, China and India will have to choose side and let go of Russia.
Putin was wrong in assuming that the West won't have to stomach for confrontation.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Putin is not reframing the conflict, it IS the West versus Russia, in particular the USA and its pet anti-communist project NATO, outnumbering Russia's population well over 6 to 1.

With most of those NATO countries donating weapons to Ukraine, including the most advanced ones, how is it not the West en masse versus Russia?

Russia and Europe jointly did end the cold war three decades ago, but the USA would not let it go, due to their intense hatred of communism. So much for their professed democracy, it's only their right wing capitalist kind they accept.

Biden is playing a very dangerous game. Russia's response to the concerted Western arms could be to rebalance it by using a multi warhead nuclear missile to destroy Kiev and end the war that way.

Then what could Biden do for all his bluff, launch a nuclear attack on Russia and receive the entire huge Russian nuclear arsenal, wrecking the USA?

I think not.
.

Putin won't deploy nuclear weapons. He's more likely to have the inexplicable misfortune of falling out of a hospital window (as some of his oligarch friends have recently) which, for some unfathomable reason, alway happen to be on the ninth floor in Russia.

 

[oyster]

Putin is not reframing the conflict

Novichok and polonium are reframing the conflict.

 

[flecc]

Putin won't deploy nuclear weapons.

Don't be so certain. If Russia starts losing this war and all Ukraine's gained territory including Crimea is threatened with being returned to Ukraine, the loss of face won't be bearable, not just to Putin but to the Russian people, who then may well back desperate measures,

Think about it, which leader will be willing to take all his people to death with him in an all out nuclear conflict? Putin or Biden.
.

 

[Woosh]

Don't be so certain. If Russia starts losing this war and all Ukraine's gained territory including Crimea is threatened with being returned to Ukraine, the loss of face won't be bearable, not just to Putin but to the Russian people, who then may well back desperate measures,

Think about it, which leader will be willing to take all his people to death with him in an all out nuclear conflict? Putin or Biden.
.

sooner or later, I prefer it sooner rather than later, the Russian people and Putin will realise that his decision to invade Ukraine was wrong. His and their only way is for somesone else to take charge of the situation and negotiate a way to end this war. If he does not take responsibility for his decision then some other Russian general will.

 

[oyster]

sooner or later, I prefer it sooner rather than later, the Russian people and Putin will realise that his decision to invade Ukraine was wrong. His and their only way is for somesone else to take charge of the situation and negotiate a way to end this war. If he does not take responsibility for his decision then some other Russian general will.

The issue would appear to be how we get from here to there - and what happens en route.

 

[flecc]

sooner or later, I prefer it sooner rather than later, the Russian people and Putin will realise that his decision to invade Ukraine was wrong. His and their only way is for somesone else to take charge of the situation and negotiate a way to end this war. If he does not take responsibility for his decision then some other Russian general will.

But they will not let go of either Crimea or the newly won access to their navy there. That will apply, Putin or no Putin, so where is there the room for negotiation?

It's the old situation of an irresistable force against an immovable object.
.

 

[Danidl]

But they will not let go of either Crimea or the newly won access to their navy there. That will apply, Putin or no Putin, so where is there the room for negotiation?

It's the old situation of an irresistable force against an immovable object.
.

I disagree flecc. . The Russian Navy have in fact abandoned Crimea as a base and have gone along the coast THEY are afraid of their submarines being destroyed. There was images published of drone submersible captured by the Russians on a beach in Crimea. It could only have come from Ukraine. Presumably they would like to return to their seaside bungalows and Dashas, but that will require sustained peace.
Why they didn't build a new harbour closer to Georgia over the last 20 years is a mystery. ..but they will now. Certainly NATO was an anti Communist US invention, and was nicely moribund until Putin upped the ante.
I do agree that there is no possibility of a negotiated settlement. ..BUT there is space for a withdrawal of all Russian armed forces from Donbass and Crimea , when there is a change of leadership in the Kremlin. The ongoing sanctions will lead to that. Putin assumed that his rapid strike would behead Ukraine, and got tacit support from China and a wait and see response from India. Since it hasn't, these countries want stability back.

 

[oyster]

Going down. 1.1180 and falling.

African Grey and Norwegian Blue, here we come.

 

[Woosh]

But they will not let go of either Crimea or the newly won access to their navy there. That will apply, Putin or no Putin, so where is there the room for negotiation?

It's the old situation of an irresistable force against an immovable object.
.

it isn't an irresistable force though, because Putin is calling up 300,000 to send to Ukraine. Russia is a country blessed with incredible riches which its dictator decided to use to wage a WWII style war, so unlike China's Xi. Putin is way past his sell by date.

 

[Woosh]

Truss-onomics is a lot of hot air. It's not so much what she wants to do on the economy, government borrows to controls energy price and removes moratorium on fracking, it's the noise that government tries to whip up as if it would energise the population. It's the same with tax cuts, Truss abondons tax rises and does not cut any old taxes, the tax that we pay this year is not any less than last year. It's all spin.
Russia sells a lot more oil and gas to China and India at discounted rates, so total world supplies have not change much in the last 6 months, so what's going on regarding the price of oil and gas?

 

[flecc]

Certainly NATO was an anti Communist US invention, and was nicely moribund until Putin upped the ante.

You see even you are too young to know the truth so you've been conned by the USA's propaganda.

NATO was nicely moribund when Russia ended the Cold War by ending the USSR, until the USA upped the ante, by not only refusing to reciprocate by disbanding NATO but instead carrying on expanding it by covert actions in Georgia and The Ukraine to get them to join.

And we only have Putin because the USA didn't want Gorbachov and his committed communism, preferring the irresponsible Yeltsin instead.
.

 

[flecc]

it isn't an irresistable force though, because Putin is calling up 300,000 to send to Ukraine. Russia is a country blessed with incredible riches which its dictator decided to use to wage a WWII style war, so unlike China's Xi. Putin is way past his sell by date.

I was speaking of the two leaders, Zelenskyy and Putin, both as bone headed and neither ever having any clue how to negotiate effectively. The irresistable force versus an immovable object, whichever way they are assigned.

Putin's sell by date was decades ago, he's a dinosaur who should never have been fast tracked to the top by Yeltsin.
.

 

[Woosh]

I was speaking of the two leaders, Zelenskyy and Putin, both as bone headed and neither ever having any clue how to negotiate effectively.

zelenskiy fights for independence from Russia, Putin fights for the old Russian empire.
Surely independence is a more motivating, don't you agree?
Also, they are fighting in Ukraine, the locals will always have superior number of manpower. As far as I can see, Putin will fail, it's just a matter of time.

 

[Woosh]

KK's mini budget: short term 2-year treasury bond yield went up from 3.3% to 3.9%. Billionaires are not buying them as enthusiastically as they did until now.
That should tell LT and KK loud and clear that growth won't materialise.
They try to woo back fintech companies that fled to the EU after brexit taking with them hundreds of billions with lower personal tax. That also won't work, our loss of their business is permanent until we rejoin the SM.

 

[oyster]

KK's mini budget: short term 2-year treasury bond yield went up from 3.3% to 3.9%. Billionaires are not buying them as enthusiastically as they did until now.
That should tell LT and KK loud and clear that growth won't materialise.
They try to woo back fintech companies that fled to the EU after brexit taking with them hundreds of billions with lower personal tax. That also won't work, our loss of their business is permanent until we rejoin the SM.

Pound dropped further to 1.1100 - not even a half-hearted boost from knowing what KK has announced rather than the uncertainty from not knowing.

 

[Woosh]

Pound dropped further to 1.1100 - not even a half-hearted boost from knowing what KK has announced rather than the uncertainty from not knowing.

I half expected that the Pound will tank at least for the next few months until the BoE can up interest rate to 4%-5%.

 

[oyster]

I half expected that the Pound will tank at least for the next few months until the BoE can up interest rate to 4%-5%.

People deciding whether it is going to hold or fall - as well as genuine need for currencies. Could go either way from where we are.