Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Isn't that assuming we have enough AZ/PB to give second injections? Maybe we have, but maybe we haven't.
Doesn't mean we can have a Moderna second jab though, mixing not proved ok yet,

We will get enough AZ and PB though, the EU won't block the second jab supplies, it would condemn them worldwide if they did.
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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Doesn't mean we can have a Moderna second jab though, mixing not proved ok yet,

We will get enough AZ and PB though, the EU won't block the second jab supplies, it would condemn them worldwide if they did.
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If we have enough AZ/PB, or will have, why get Moderna as well?
 

Woosh

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we need as many doses as we can get, maybe 100 million doses until the rush to vaccinate is over. Low priced AZ would be the long term vaccine.
the situation in the EU should be OK by July. France vaccinates about 300,000 people a day.

 

sjpt

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If we have enough AZ/PB, or will have, why get Moderna as well?
I think that as long as the different vaccines are about equally effective but with slightly different strengths you get better overall results by using a mix. I haven't modelled it or seen any 'respectable' comments to back that up.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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I think that as long as the different vaccines are about equally effective but with slightly different strengths you get better overall results by using a mix. I haven't modelled it or seen any 'respectable' comments to back that up.
I am very much not convinced by that. I don't think it is strength, rather the precise range of virus shapes that our immune systems are primed to recognise.

Imagine a new variation which infects two vaccine recipients. In one, who received vaccine A, the priming means that their immune system does get triggered and it protects the person. In the other, vaccine B, it falls outside the triggering range and the person becomes ill.

Or am I misunderstanding it all?
 
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sjpt

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 8, 2018
3,832
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Winchester
I am very much not convinced by that. I don't think it is strength, rather the precise range of virus shapes that our immune systems are primed to recognise.

Imagine a new variation which infects two vaccine recipients. In one, who received vaccine A, the priming means that their immune system does get triggered and it protects the person. In the other, vaccine B, it falls outside the triggering range and the person becomes ill.

Or am I misunderstanding it all?
Rereading my post I see it was ambiguous, apologies (***). When I said 'with slightly different strengths' you quite reasonably read 'brute strength' or potency. What I meant was different strengths as in 'different strengths and weaknesses'; eg the same overall potency but fitting different mutations in different ways.

I agree it is not just 'brute strength' that matters, but the overall effect of virus/vaccine fit, and how that plays out at a large level. In your example if both had the same second vaccine both would have become ill. Expanding that over a full population would give a big increase in the replication factor. It could well be that with the different vaccines the replication factor stayed below 1 whichever mutation hit, but with the same (strong but unfortunately inappropriate) vaccine for all the replication factor goes above the critical 1 value.
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(***) I'm very good at spotting ambiguities in other people's wording; not so good at spotting it in my own.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,196
30,602
(***) I'm very good at spotting ambiguities in other people's wording; not so good at spotting it in my own.
As Oyster says, it's universal. The mirror of the page tells the truth, the mirror in our minds lies to us.
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