Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

The Clown Show in Europe continues as Germany partiality suspends use of the Oxford vaccine due to a potential threat which is far far smaller than the disease it protects against.

They are now turning to Russia for help Well at least the Russian vaccine doesn’t contain the word Oxford, so that will make it much more acceptable to the UGP and the snide, oily, treacherous French pigmy

How odd that you come out with that corny old line
There are plenty of countries outside the EU doing the same

 

[oldgroaner]

Now for some facts from OUR official government statistics

pfizer from 03 April 1990 to 22 Mar 2021 259 deaths
Az from 03 Feb 1921??? to Mar 2021 326 deaths
And look at the disparity in reactions and reports.

Now tell me how the French President fiddled our results

And of course there is this to consider, if you prefer no to swallow the local truth twisting

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/03/25/has-the-uk-really-outperformed-the-eu-on-covid-19-vaccinations/

 

[Suzan]

The Brexit fans on Twitter seem to believe that only the EU are not happy with the AZ vaccine as that suits their political agenda
The reality is this

It's nothing to do with countries suspending or stopping its use. That is absolutely fine, although it's now apparent rather a political expediency than medical,its the suspending, stopping and general attacking of AZ vaccine combined with trying to get our supplies of the same. And trying to ban export of a drug they actually don't want.
By any sane, objective assessment EU, or its constituent countries if you are in awe of EU and can't accept it has faults, has performed terribly in vaccine roll out.
I suspect it will damage EU leaders, especially Von Leyen, and heads of the powerful member countries.
Makron and Merkel have been badly affected by the group's and their own performances recently. Could see it costing Makron and Merkel their positions.

Mortality rates are still rising in the UK – and everyone is ignoring how many more people are dying

There were an extra 623,000 deaths in the UK in the year to mid-2018 – an increase of 3%.

theconversation.com

Interesting that this report was written pre covid and death rates higher in each age group than equivalent death rates in AZ vaccinated groups.
Noticed yesterday that Germany quoted 36 clotting incidents with 9 deaths from 2.72 million jabs.
The obvious questions that JCVI must be answering differently to German counterpart is
A) Are those 9 deaths over and above deaths from similar cohorts of non vaccinated.. (ie from previous years data)
B) Do those 9 deaths have detrimental effect on death rate or are they part of it?
C) Are the deaths linked to vaccine? If so what is the risk?
D) Is that risk greater or lesser than death risk from Covid.
I suspect we all know the answers to these questions.
9 deaths from 2.7 million vaccinated with no proven link is a very small risk even if link exists.
So, why have Germans suspended AZ for under 60s? They are attempting to prove to be shown as "careful". They are hoping the low confidence will increase when vaccine is restarted. I suspect the reverse will happen.
Putting it in perspective.
Assume only a 0.1% death rate for covid. (it's about that for a healthy 40 Yr old)
Assume only a 95% efficiency for AZ vaccine saving life. (Its actually higher).
The vaccine potentially saves 2500 lives from vaccinating 2.7 million.
It potentially cost 9 lives.
The maths simply does not add up to suspend or hold up vaccine.

 

[Woosh]

I suspect we all know the answers to these questions.
9 deaths from 2.7 million vaccinated with no proven link is a very small risk even if link exists.
So, why have Germans suspended AZ for under 60s? They are attempting to prove to be shown as "careful". They are hoping the low confidence will increase when vaccine is restarted. I suspect the reverse will happen.

they are more careful than our government.
They try to avoid known risks.
If you start putting numbers on '9 deaths' then why not do same on 160,000 deaths?
As flecc pointed out in the early days that they are going to die anyway so why ruin our economy for them?
Our government's first reaction is more jabs and if people ask questions, they just tell them 'we follow the science' while they actually don't.

 

[Danidl]

It's nothing to do with countries suspending or stopping its use. That is absolutely fine, although it's now apparent rather a political expediency than medical,its the suspending, stopping and general attacking of AZ vaccine combined with trying to get our supplies of the same. And trying to ban export of a drug they actually don't want.
By any sane, objective assessment EU, or its constituent countries if you are in awe of EU and can't accept it has faults, has performed terribly in vaccine roll out.
I suspect it will damage EU leaders, especially Von Leyen, and heads of the powerful member countries.
Makron and Merkel have been badly affected by the group's and their own performances recently. Could see it costing Makron and Merkel their positions.

Mortality rates are still rising in the UK – and everyone is ignoring how many more people are dying

There were an extra 623,000 deaths in the UK in the year to mid-2018 – an increase of 3%.

theconversation.com

Interesting that this report was written pre covid and death rates higher in each age group than equivalent death rates in AZ vaccinated groups.
Noticed yesterday that Germany quoted 36 clotting incidents with 9 deaths from 2.72 million jabs.
The obvious questions that JCVI must be answering differently to German counterpart is
A) Are those 9 deaths over and above deaths from similar cohorts of non vaccinated.. (ie from previous years data)
B) Do those 9 deaths have detrimental effect on death rate or are they part of it?
C) Are the deaths linked to vaccine? If so what is the risk?
D) Is that risk greater or lesser than death risk from Covid.
I suspect we all know the answers to these questions.
9 deaths from 2.7 million vaccinated with no proven link is a very small risk even if link exists.
So, why have Germans suspended AZ for under 60s? They are attempting to prove to be shown as "careful". They are hoping the low confidence will increase when vaccine is restarted. I suspect the reverse will happen.
Putting it in perspective.
Assume only a 0.1% death rate for covid. (it's about that for a healthy 40 Yr old)
Assume only a 95% efficiency for AZ vaccine saving life. (Its actually higher).
The vaccine potentially saves 2500 lives from vaccinating 2.7 million.
It potentially cost 9 lives.
The maths simply does not add up to suspend or hold up vaccine.

Susan .. an excellent posting. Just one small thing .." I suspect we all know the answers to these questions"..We don't. And very unfortunately, the UK AZ spokeswoman was a bit coy on that point. The Other point is "no proven link ".. . Well we only had two indications ,and no proven link that software was not helping 737MAXs to fly safely. And we certainly had no proven link for 1 month last January 12 months, that there was Human to Human transmission of the virus.
The other point is that irrespective of all the posturing, the AZ vaccine is STILL a very minor player in Europe. Not because people will not use it but because it is not available. So limiting its usage to specific cohorts, doesn't affect it rollout.
The picture which is emerging, but s not altogether clear would appear to be.
1. The AZ is linked with a very odd form or rare form of blood clotting disorder, which is very serious.
2. That it occurs in a younger cohort , who hitherto were assumed to be in robust health.
3. That its incidence appears very low. Making the protection factor for the population of giving the vaccine ,even knowing that there will be a few fatalities, justify the collateral damage
That requires any prudent health authority to continually examine every and all cases, looking for any risk factors, so that specific groups deemed more at risk can be excluded.

.

 

[Danidl]

The Brexit fans on Twitter seem to believe that only the EU are not happy with the AZ vaccine as that suits their political agenda
The reality is this

Two points OG. That stoppage lasted about 4 days and finished on 19th. March, in most EU countries... So it was very short lived.
Because of the very limited supplies available, it made very little difference to overall vaccination campaigns

 

[Danidl]

Now for some facts from OUR official government statistics

pfizer from 03 April 1990 to 22 Mar 2021 259 deaths
Az from 03 Feb 1921??? to Mar 2021 326 deaths
And look at the disparity in reactions and reports.

Now tell me how the French President fiddled our results

And of course there is this to consider, if you prefer no to swallow the local truth twisting

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/03/25/has-the-uk-really-outperformed-the-eu-on-covid-19-vaccinations/

There must be an error in the Biontech data .. 1990 is a long time ago.

 

[Woosh]

Chinese vaccines: inactivated virus based vaccines give excellent results. Old technology still works. Results are comparable to Pfizer, AZ etc.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30987-7/fulltext

 

[Suzan]

they are more careful than our government.
They try to avoid known risks.
If you start putting numbers on '9 deaths' then why not do same on 160,000 deaths?
As flecc pointed out in the early days that they are going to die anyway so why ruin our economy for them?
Our government's first reaction is more jabs and if people ask questions, they just tell them 'we follow the science' while they actually don't.

I, m afraid I don't agree with that at all.
Firstly, you don't even know it is 9 deaths. There are deaths in all groups of 2.7 million people from blood clots.

Susan .. an excellent posting. Just one small thing .." I suspect we all know the answers to these questions"..We don't. And very unfortunately, the UK AZ spokeswoman was a bit coy on that point. The Other point is "no proven link ".. . Well we only had two indications ,and no proven link that software was not helping 737MAXs to fly safely. And we certainly had no proven link for 1 month last January 12 months, that there was Human to Human transmission of the virus.
The other point is that irrespective of all the posturing, the AZ vaccine is STILL a very minor player in Europe. Not because people will not use it but because it is not available. So limiting its usage to specific cohorts, doesn't affect it rollout.
The picture which is emerging, but s not altogether clear would appear to be.
1. The AZ is linked with a very odd form or rare form of blood clotting disorder, which is very serious.
2. That it occurs in a younger cohort , who hitherto were assumed to be in robust health.
3. That its incidence appears very low. Making the protection factor for the population of giving the vaccine ,even knowing that there will be a few fatalities, justify the collateral damage
That requires any prudent health authority to continually examine every and all cases, looking for any risk factors, so that specific groups deemed more at risk can be excluded.

.

Thank you.
I don't really agree. I suspect we do know the answers to those questions already.
9 deaths out 2.72 million people at large from clotting is not unusual at all.
Its an area where if we look for correlation we can find one. We are talking one in 302,000 people, and that assumes there even is a link.
I suspect we have already seen many politicians assuming more knowledge than epidemiologists. That seems very much case with President Macron.
There has been a narrative against AZ and a seemingly strange stance from many in EU.
We will see in years to come who was right. At the moment I, m fairly convinced UK is and my friends/family in France see it that way.
I have many friends over 70 yet to have a single dose. That at moment is inexcusable.
My parents got their first last week. My husband 's about 10 weeks ago. How many French deaths does that correlate to?
We are all adults, entire Europe should have had figures available and allowed to make their own choice. People in UK who agree with you can refuse the vaccine... People in France can't chose to have one.
And, by the way Woosh. Seem to remember you answering somebody about EU death rate. Italy is now within 2% of UK figure, UK sits 9th in Europe,suspect Italy and UK will be trading places soon.

 

[flecc]

1. The AZ is linked with a very odd form or rare form of blood clotting disorder, which is very serious.
2. That it occurs in a younger cohort , who hitherto were assumed to be in robust health.
3. That its incidence appears very low. Making the protection factor for the population of giving the vaccine ,even knowing that there will be a few fatalities, justify the collateral damage.

Justified for the authorities maybe, but certainly not necessarily for the individual, e.g.

A person in the younger age groups who has always lived a very healthy life, assiduously followed Covid advice and has successfully avoided it for a year. Even if they do eventually catch this infection, given their good health it's likely they will be little affected, something akin to a cold or a mild 'flu. And even if they do catch it they will gain protective antibodies anyway, which is what the vaccine provides.

If they accept the AZ vaccine, they accept a possible minute risk of death due to a very rare form of clotting. Given that their prior risk of any clotting is extremely low and non-existent for this rare fatal clotting, they may well feel it entirely reasonable to avoid that risk by rejecting the vaccine, at least until there is greater certainly of no connection.

In essence, a tiny risk at their relatively young age of death from Covid which they've proved avoidable for over a year, versus a possible minute risk of death from clotting that they've no way of avoiding if they accept the vaccine.

I respect anyone in those circumstances rejecting the vaccine, I'd probably do the same if my circumstances were those.
.

 

[Suzan]

Justified for the authorities maybe, but certainly not necessarily for the individual, e.g.

A person in the younger age groups who has always lived a very healthy life, assiduously followed Covid advice and has successfully avoided it for a year. Even if they do eventually catch this infection, given their good health it's likely they will be little affected, something akin to a cold or a mild 'flu. And even if they do catch it they will gain protective antibodies anyway, which is what the vaccine provides.

If they accept the AZ vaccine, they accept a possible minute risk of death due to a very rare form of clotting. Given that their prior risk of any clotting is extremely low and non-existent for this rare fatal clotting, they may well feel it entirely reasonable to avoid that risk by rejecting the vaccine, at least until there is greater certainly of no connection.

In essence, a tiny risk at their relatively young age of death from Covid which they've proved avoidable for over a year, versus a possible minute risk of death from clotting that they've no way of avoiding if they accept the vaccine.

I respect anyone in those circumstances rejecting the vaccine, I'd probably do the same if my circumstances were those.
.

Very true Flecc. You are in position of refusing jab, most of UK likewise.
Europe hasn't managed that. Running at around 15% against UK 60% and Israel 100%, there is something wrong.
UK really should appreciate being in position they are. Nobody is making anyone have jab. Authorities seem to be stopping lots.

 

[oldgroaner]

How odd that you come out with that corny old line
There are plenty of countries outside the EU doing the same

What are you disagreeing with Susan? are you disputing the map and or statement?

 

[oldgroaner]

Very true Flecc. You are in position of refusing jab, most of UK likewise.
Europe hasn't managed that. Running at around 15% against UK 60% and Israel 100%, there is something wrong.
UK really should appreciate being in position they are. Nobody is making anyone have jab. Authorities seem to be stopping lots.

Yes indeed we should appreciate that despite not sending any vaccine to the EU 10 million jabs produced there have really helped our injection program, haven't they?
Amd of course it isn't just blood clotting that bothers them, though our media make out it is
"
pfizer from 03 April 1990 to 22 Mar 2021 259 deaths
Az from 03 Feb 1921??? to Mar 2021 326 deaths
And look at the disparity in reactions and reports.
Total reaction reports UK
Pfiser 108,649 dead 259
AZ 294,820 dead 326

There are other aspects than blood clots

 

[oldgroaner]

There must be an error in the Biontech data .. 1990 is a long time ago.

And 1921 even further back for the AZ!

 

[oldgroaner]

This article presents a different view to the one popular in the UK
Has the UK really outperformed the EU on Covid-19 vaccinations?

"The cause of this is different degrees of vaccine nationalism. The vaccine producing countries of Europe have made enough to vaccinate about half their population with a first jab (the 100 million jabs were made in EU states with a combined population of about 200 million – Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy). If they had kept this for themselves, they would be far ahead of the UK – which would have had to make do with its own more limited production – and at around the same stage as the US. "

Indeed, we should be grateful to the EU we got ahead at their expense because they were not greedy as we are.

 

[flecc]

There must be an error in the Biontech data .. 1990 is a long time ago.

Az from 03 Feb 1921???

We thought on 1st January 2000 that we were safe and it didn't exist.

That'll teach us not to judge prematurely.

It's the Millennium bug, an inability of some our computers to get past 31st December 1999 !!
.

 

[Danidl]

I, m afraid I don't agree with that at all.
Firstly, you don't even know it is 9 deaths. There are deaths in all groups of 2.7 million people from blood clots.

Thank you.
I don't really agree. I suspect we do know the answers to those questions already.
9 deaths out 2.72 million people at large from clotting is not unusual at all.
Its an area where if we look for correlation we can find one. We are talking one in 302,000 people, and that assumes there even is a link.
I suspect we have already seen many politicians assuming more knowledge than epidemiologists. That seems very much case with President Macron.
There has been a narrative against AZ and a seemingly strange stance from many in EU.
We will see in years to come who was right. At the moment I, m fairly convinced UK is and my friends/family in France see it that way.
I have many friends over 70 yet to have a single dose. That at moment is inexcusable.
My parents got their first last week. My husband 's about 10 weeks ago. How many French deaths does that correlate to?
We are all adults, entire Europe should have had figures available and allowed to make their own choice. People in UK who agree with you can refuse the vaccine... People in France can't chose to have one.
And, by the way Woosh. Seem to remember you answering somebody about EU death rate. Italy is now within 2% of UK figure, UK sits 9th in Europe,suspect Italy and UK will be trading places soon.

You cannot inject what you don't have.... That is the stark truth. Ireland is somewhat of an outlier in that we have got as much as 20% of out vaccinations using AZ, and 95% of all vaccines are used within 7 days of their arrival. 77% are Pfizer and the remainder are Moderna... .
The "mistake" that the EU made , is that it made the call that we are all in this together, and did not prioritize Pfizer vaccine to EU citizens. This is a "mistake" the UK did not make, and it hoovered up vaccines from Europe and India . The other "mistake" is that the EU operates in accordance with the Manufacturers and the validating authority Operating Procedures ,and give vaccines at the recommended intervals. It is only now that the Uk is reaching the fully vaccinated levels experienced in the EU.

 

[Danidl]

Very true Flecc. You are in position of refusing jab, most of UK likewise.
Europe hasn't managed that. Running at around 15% against UK 60% and Israel 100%, there is something wrong.
UK really should appreciate being in position they are. Nobody is making anyone have jab. Authorities seem to be stopping lots.

The Israel population is 11M. ..doses which might have gone into EU arms, had the EU been as insular in mindset , there would be no Israeli vaccinated. And only half as many UK vaccinations and twice as many EU vaccinated ..THAT is the "something wrong". 450 is bigger than 66 is bigger than 11

 

[oldgroaner]

You cannot inject what you don't have.... That is the stark truth. Ireland is somewhat of an outlier in that we have got as much as 20% of out vaccinations using AZ, and 95% of all vaccines are used within 7 days of their arrival. 77% are Pfizer and the remainder are Moderna... .
The "mistake" that the EU made , is that it made the call that we are all in this together, and did not prioritize Pfizer vaccine to EU citizens. This is a "mistake" the UK did not make, and it hoovered up vaccines from Europe and India . The other "mistake" is that the EU operates in accordance with the Manufacturers and the validating authority Operating Procedures ,and give vaccines at the recommended intervals. It is only now that the Uk is reaching the fully vaccinated levels experienced in the EU.

What is amazing is how a government desperate for some good PR would take such a big risk in extending the manufactures dosing instructions in order to win in the numbers game.
If you are feeling rather generous you could take the anticipated attitude the media want you to have, that we have more rights to life than the rest of humanity and that morally it's just fine to take vaccines others need too on the basis we got our order in first.
But look what has happened
The third wave is striking on the continent, is it not likely if the vaccines had been made available equally lives could have been saved there??
I'm staggered at how short sighed this country has become.
And all to rescue a government that should have been thrown out long ago.

 

[Woosh]

the Brazilian variant accounts for about 10% of infection in France and rising.
It is resistant to the AZ vaccine.
How long before it crosses the Channel? I don't know but I hope we'll have the third jab by then.