Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

Or, you give both one jab and nobody goes into hospital and dies, or overburdens the hospital. Both might have mild symptoms for a few days.

Option 2 has to be the best way forward at this time.

we'll know in a couple of months how many die after one jab.
My view is clear: the second jab produces a much stronger immune response, more than twice that of the first jab.
If you have the Pfizer vaccine, that is 95%/3 = 32% protection for the first jab plus 63% for the second jab. If you have the AZ vaccine, that is 65%/3 = 22% for the first jab, 43% for the second jab.

 

[Jesus H Christ]

the vaccine people didn't say that. I don't know where you got the 90% from.
They would be lucky to get half the protection that two jabs give.
I did post the 4 typical antibodies profiles after someone gets the first jab then the second jab.
There are a few steps that the immune system has to go through before it is able to fight the disease. The key point is the peak of antibody titre after the second jab is twice as high as the peak of antibody titre after the first jab.
If you assume that the antibody titre (or concentration) in your blood is proportional to your fighting chance, you most certainly need two jabs. Otherwise, what's the point of giving two jabs in the first place?

Titer - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Woosh, during the trials, nobody became sick enough to need hospitalisation after the first injection. Nobody.

One dose doesn’t stop you contacting Coronavirus, but it seems to massively reduce the risk of it turning nasty and killing you. That has to be a good outcome.

 

[Zlatan]

Matt Hancock says 89%.........must be true
Coronavirus vaccine latest: Two to three weeks first jab protection kicks in | Express.co.uk

But nobody says 89% of what??

 

[oldgroaner]

I didn’t think it was possible to have an IQ with a negative value. Thank you, I’m delighted

There is a class of people with that problem we call them Members of Parliament

 

[Zlatan]

Woosh, during the trials, nobody became sick enough to need hospitalisation after the first injection. Nobody.

One dose doesn’t stop you contacting Coronavirus, but it seems to massively reduce the risk of it turning nasty and killing you. That has to be a good outcome.

Two jabs won't stop you catching it. Don't think vaccine can stop any one getting it, think it prevents illness. It's why the are worried vaccine won't stop transmission.
And, BTW, NHS, JCVI have not altered dosage regime on AZ.. They say between 4 and 12 weeks,and at moment this one represents 80% of vaccines given. It will rise to 90% of them. (so I read on squid news but can't get links off squid)

 

[oldgroaner]

You'll be pleased to hear that there isn't a "Red Tape" problem at all
As the Fuhrer explains here

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1351197180971909121

He's obviously been taking tips from Grotty Pitbull
after the lines of "Shoplifting is down"

 

[Zlatan]

we'll know in a couple of months how many die after one jab.
My view is clear: the second jab produces a much stronger immune response, more than twice that of the first jab.
If you have the Pfizer vaccine, that is 95%/3 = 32% protection for the first jab plus 63% for the second jab. If you have the AZ vaccine, that is 65%/3 = 22% for the first jab, 43% for the second jab.

Don't think the maths is that simple Woosh.

 

[Woosh]

Perhaps you could explain exactly what criteria are used for efficy. I can't find them. I did hear they were different for AZ and Biontech..
AZ were actually saying in some respects there vaccine was 100% efficient, if criteria was no deaths or no serious disease.???
Even a vaccine with 100% efficy does not prevent infection???

Pfizer split the cohort into two groups, group 1 receives the vaccine, group 2 receives a placebo.
170 people from the cohort contracted Covid. 8 from group 1, 162 from group 2.
The relative risk RR is thus: 8/162 = 4.93%
Efficacy = 1 - RR = 95%.

 

[Woosh]

Don't think the maths is that simple Woosh.

it's clear enough if you want to look into it.

 

[oldgroaner]

What we could really do with is an effective and standardised mask that has replaceable filters, as we are effectively living in a hostile atmosphere
Something along the principle of the WW2 gas mask, but of modern design for comfort ease of use and mass manufacture.

 

[Woosh]

Woosh, during the trials, nobody became sick enough to need hospitalisation after the first injection. Nobody.

the cohorts used in the trials do not contain much of our top priority (over 80) group.
If you agree that 4 our of 5 deaths at present still among our top priority tiers 1 and 2 then mathematically, you should protect them with two jabs.
The mitigation strategy 1 jab followed by 12 weeks wait then a second jab should be given to tier 3, 4 and 5. They don't carry as much risk of hospitalisation and deaths.

 

[Zlatan]

Pfizer split the cohort into two groups, group 1 receives the vaccine, group 2 receives a placebo.
170 people from the cohort contracted Covid. 8 from group 1, 162 from group 2.
The relative risk is thus: 8/162 = 4.93%
Efficacy = 1 - RR = 95%.

But the fact that even vaccinated individuals can test positive and non vaccinated might not develop symptoms throws that measure into disrepute.
The only way to really know is see which people die, which are hospitalised and which are just ill. As Jesus pointed out nobody died, was hospitalised or developed serious illness 3 weeks after first dose.
Really that's the only important issue from an individuals point of view.
JVT was in briefing a few weeks ago saying efficy rates from trials are pretty meaningless. It just says they have an affect.

 

[Woosh]

But the fact that even vaccinated individuals can test positive and non vaccinated might not develop symptoms throws that measure into disrepute.

I got the numbers from Pfizer's papers.
Their subjects got regularly tested.
The main thing is the notion of relative risk in immunology.
That transcends the individual differences.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

 

[flecc]

4 million plus single doses administered.
425,000 have had 2 doses.

This is why the Prime Ministers statement today is a disgrace and confirms what I said about their chaotic handling of the vaccine administration.

He said the over 80s who have yet to receive theirs will hear within four weeks.

That will be up to 8 weeks after some the first over 80s received theirs and up to 7 weeks after many in the over 70s received theirs.

In fact all the over 80s represent less than two weeks vaccine supply at the boasted of rate of 2 million jabs a weeks, so to take eight weeks to reach all over 80s is incompetence of the highest degree. There is no acceptable excuse.
.

 

[Danidl]

What we could really do with is an effective and standardised mask that has replaceable filters, as we are effectively living in a hostile atmosphere
Something along the principle of the WW2 gas mask, but of modern design for comfort ease of use and mass manufacture.

Yes. I see a market for lithium ion battery powered fans sucking air via a carbon filter or maybe a Dyson HEPA or even a Kona Coffee filter

 

[Jesus H Christ]

This is why the Prime Ministers statement today is a disgrace and confirms what I said about their chaotic handling of the vaccine administration.

He said the over 80s who have yet to receive theirs will hear within four weeks.

That will be up to 8 weeks after some the first over 80s received theirs and up to 7 weeks after many in the over 70s received theirs.

In fact all the over 80s represent less than two weeks vaccine supply at the boasted of rate of 2 million jabs a weeks, so to take eight weeks to reach all over 80s is incompetence of the highest degree. There is no acceptable excuse.
.

An old lady near me says she isn’t going for her jab because the vaccination centre is too far away. She drives too.

You can’t wait for people like this, it’s important to keep things moving and get stuck into the next tier of eligible candidates.

 

[Jesus H Christ]

Yes. I see a market for lithium ion battery powered fans sucking air via a carbon filter or maybe a Dyson HEPA or even a Kona Coffee filter

During the first wave, I considered knocking something together along these lines. I was going to usea small shoulder bag with a fan drawing in filtered air an supplying it to a full face mask at a slightly + pressure. This would have been used for supermarket shopping which can be highly dangerous. I decided against it when we were able to secure regular click + collect slots.

 

[flecc]

An old lady near me says she isn’t going for her jab because the vaccination centre is too far away. She drives too.

You can’t wait for people like this, it’s important to keep things moving and get stuck into the next tier of eligible candidates.

Did I not post that there was no excuse?

That oft repeated official excuse is utter nonsense and can't even begin to explain the discrepancies, and the next tier is the remaining over 80s anyway.

The absolute proof is that when many of the over 70s were given the first jab they were also given the 21 day date to attend for their second, after we'd settled on a one jab policy and when far less than half the over 80s had received their first jab. The number of non attenders cannot possibly be known three weeks in advance and as just said the remaining over 80s were next, not the 70s.

Apologists for this incompetent government are unwelcome since they just encourage continuing failure. In any case the Astra Zeneca vaccine does not have to be used if some left over due to non attenders since it doesn't need any special refrigeration, any household fridge is ok to carry it over.
.

 

[sjpt]

I didn’t think it was possible to have an IQ with a negative value. Thank you, I’m delighted

Yes, you can do it, and become president of the most influential country in the world.

 

[Zlatan]

When the new covid strain was announced a few weeks ago we were told it was 70% more transmissible and would increase R value by 0.4.
Tonight number being infected, according to BBC, have dropped this week by 25%...
I,m fairly convinced this lockdown has not been as stringent or observed as Lovkdown1.
How can this be case. Really pleased numbers are dropping but one if these two reports must be way out..???