Brexit, for once some facts.

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
An old lady near me says she isn’t going for her jab because the vaccination centre is too far away. She drives too.
Have seen some really bad distances - 100 miles and more. Which might be understandable, even acceptable, if you live many miles from anywhere. But if you have to drive past vaccine centres to get there, something is obviously wrong.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
When the new covid strain was announced a few weeks ago we were told it was 70% more transmissible and would increase R value by 0.4.
Tonight number being infected, according to BBC, have dropped this week by 25%...
I,m fairly convinced this lockdown has not been as stringent or observed as Lovkdown1.
How can this be case. Really pleased numbers are dropping but one if these two reports must be way out..???
I thought you were trying to get us to believe it was due to the wonderfulness of the UK!

Some reports suggested that people have actually been observing precautions better - with the single biggest problem being those who have been forced to work despite thinking they have Covid-19 or been exposed to it.

One argument being so many of us have seen people we know suffer and die. That has been a major driver of better adherence.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,161
30,578
When the new covid strain was announced a few weeks ago we were told it was 70% more transmissible and would increase R value by 0.4.
Tonight number being infected, according to BBC, have dropped this week by 25%...
I,m fairly convinced this lockdown has not been as stringent or observed as Lovkdown1.
How can this be case. Really pleased numbers are dropping but one if these two reports must be way out..???
You've supported my post the other day which said the second lockdown has been observed far better than the first one. I'm sure the politicians saying otherwise was just propaganda to try to get the maximum possible compliance. The scale of their lying to us in every respect is reaching new highs.
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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Chris Vickery
@VickerySec


Parler is back online now by routing 100% of its user traffic through servers located within the Russian Federation. Raise your hand if you understand the very significant impact this has on the ability to surveil and target insurrectionists who organize on Parler.

Handy for Gove and the other Torys
 
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
8,086
4,290
You've supported my post the ot;her day which said the second lockdown has been observed far better than the first one. I'm sure the politicians saying otherwise was just propaganda to try to get the maximum possible compliance. The scale of their lying to us in every respect is reaching new highs.
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Well it worked then. I wasn't passing any opinion on subject. Personally think it's impossible new variant is 70% more transmissible, perhaps a bit more.
Either we have observed rules better or perhaps herd immunity is starting to have an effect or new strain is no more transmissible.
I know schools around us are operating at 60% attendance, lockdown 1 was 25% and roads are way busier this time around.
Something does not add up.
Saw a report last week about Dakota. Their numbers had dropped by 80% in 2 weeks. Left authorities happily bemused and could not explain it with vaccines. (should be taking effect this week)???


Nothing wrong with Dorothy's appetite.
And in the Guardian...
 
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Jesus H Christ

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 31, 2020
1,363
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Did I not post that there was no excuse?

That oft repeated official excuse is utter nonsense and can't even begin to explain the discrepancies, and the next tier is the remaining over 80s anyway.

The absolute proof is that when many of the over 70s were given the first jab they were also given the 21 day date to attend for their second, after we'd settled on a one jab policy and when far less than half the over 80s had received their first jab. The number of non attenders cannot possibly be known three weeks in advance and as just said the remaining over 80s were next, not the 70s.

Apologists for this incompetent government are unwelcome since they just encourage continuing failure. In any case the Astra Zeneca vaccine does not have to be used if some left over due to non attenders since it doesn't need any special refrigeration, any household fridge is ok to carry it over.
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There are quite a few no-shows, I have a friend who corrals all the old biddies at the injection centres and she reports about 80% attendance.

If the vaccine is at the centre, the syringes are cocked & ready and staff are there to pull the trigger, only a lunatic would advocate standing them all down until the missing 20% have been rounded up. It’s entirely correct and sensible to plough on vaccinating people.

I have been a big critic of this government, but it is possible to give credit where it’s due. Give it a try.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,340
16,858
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
When the new covid strain was announced a few weeks ago we were told it was 70% more transmissible and would increase R value by 0.4.
Tonight number being infected, according to BBC, have dropped this week by 25%...
I,m fairly convinced this lockdown has not been as stringent or observed as Lovkdown1.
How can this be case. Really pleased numbers are dropping but one if these two reports must be way out..???
there could well be a simple explanation.
The new variant is being replaced by an even newer variant.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,161
30,578
There are quite a few no-shows, I have a friend who corrals all the old biddies at the injection centres and she reports about 80% attendance.

If the vaccine is at the centre, the syringes are cocked & ready and staff are there to pull the trigger, only a lunatic would advocate standing them all down until the missing 20% have been rounded up. It’s entirely correct and sensible to plough on vaccinating people.

I have been a big critic of this government, but it is possible to give credit where it’s due. Give it a try.
Try reading what I posted before giving replies invalid in every respect.

Are you trying to tell me that they have a queue of waiting 70 years olds in case of no shows but not of the outstanding 80 year olds?

Haven't you any idea how silly that appears?
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Jesus H Christ

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 31, 2020
1,363
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Try reading what I posted before giving replies invalid in every respect.

Are you trying to tell me that they have a queue of waiting 70 years olds in case of no shows but not of the outstanding 80 year olds?

Haven't you any idea how silly that appears?
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No queue, they are now calling 70 year + olds forwards to keep the vaccination process running at full capacity. If they stuck strictly to 80+ the vaccination teams would be standing idle. Not enough are turning up to take full advantage of our vaccination capacity.

It’s very sensible.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,161
30,578
No queue, they are now calling 70 year + olds forwards to keep the vaccination process running at full capacity. If they stuck strictly to 80+ the vaccination teams would be standing idle. Not enough are turning up to take full advantage of our vaccination capacity.

It’s very sensible.
Further government promoted nonsense, why aren't they calling forward more of the large numbers of outstanding over 80s, many of whom are anxious to get theirs?
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,340
16,858
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Chris Vickery
@VickerySec


Parler is back online now by routing 100% of its user traffic through servers located within the Russian Federation. Raise your hand if you understand the very significant impact this has on the ability to surveil and target insurrectionists who organize on Parler.

Handy for Gove and the other Torys
bbc news: one invited specialist reported that fake news (US election, QAnon) reduced by 73% since Twitter and Facebook closed DT's account.
Parler moves to Russia. Now it's pretty clear which country benefits from fake news.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
12,256
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Ireland
Further government promoted nonsense, why aren't they calling forward more of the large numbers of outstanding over 80s, many of whom are anxious to get theirs?
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We have a similar so called scandal here ... where non front line staff were vaccinated . basically once the vial is prepared , it must be used quickly, it would be more scandalous not to use it than to keep the " optics right", so in our case family members of the senior doctor were vaccinated
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
12,256
73
Ireland
When the new covid strain was announced a few weeks ago we were told it was 70% more transmissible and would increase R value by 0.4.
Tonight number being infected, according to BBC, have dropped this week by 25%...
I,m fairly convinced this lockdown has not been as stringent or observed as Lovkdown1.
How can this be case. Really pleased numbers are dropping but one if these two reports must be way out..???
The R number is not at all real. it is the numerical variable used to fit a regression curve to experimentally obtained data . basically .. we have measured this pattern, the curve that best describes it is this polynomial and with these indices . Anything which affects the experimental measurement impacts the R number . It is not a constant like e or pi .
the information I am getting from my UK cousins and family is that they see changed behaviors .
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,161
30,578
We have a similar so called scandal here ... where non front line staff were vaccinated . basically once the vial is prepared , it must be used quickly, it would be more scandalous not to use it than to keep the " optics right", so in our case family members of the senior doctor were vaccinated
I'm not posting about such isolated examples though and haven't criticised them. I'm posting about large numbers of 70 year olds in areas where over half the 80 year olds have not even been offered an appointment. And about 70 year olds getting the first jab and then immediately given the date for the second jab 21 days later while all those over 80s are still outstanding. About the 70s having both their jabs completed over three weeks ago with the 80s like me still waiting for a first one

These things are nothing to do with "no shows", they are simply due to incompetent administration.
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
8,086
4,290

In Norway 45 care home residents die every day. In near future every one of those is likely to die having had a covid vaccine. There must be a moral dilemna in there somewhere when there are medical people without vaccines. We are bound to be in similar dilemna.
 
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
8,086
4,290
The R number is not at all real. it is the numerical variable used to fit a regression curve to experimentally obtained data . basically .. we have measured this pattern, the curve that best describes it is this polynomial and with these indices . Anything which affects the experimental measurement impacts the R number . It is not a constant like e or pi .
the information I am getting from my UK cousins and family is that they see changed behaviors .
It is real its not constant. My point was to do with however you measure transmission it was claimed new strain was much easier to catch. (figures were claimed to be 70% higher and that R value would be increased by 0.4)
With our current, and hopefully sustained, drop in infections such an increase in transmission does not seem possible. (if it is 70% easier to transmit we, d have to lockdown 70% more efficiently to show reduction in numbers as we did in lockdown 1,fact is the drop off of numbers has shown steeper decline)
I was simply posing question why?
And drop off we have seen has fortunately been more pronounced than predicted.??
As for lockdown 2 being more pronounced, I don't think so. Far more people are at work and school's have at least double number of pupils.???
 
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Jesus H Christ

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 31, 2020
1,363
2,206
Further government promoted nonsense, why aren't they calling forward more of the large numbers of outstanding over 80s, many of whom are anxious to get theirs?
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It‘s localised incompetence. I’m not eligible for vaccination yet because I’m in my 50s. If I had a vaccination slot, I’d give it to you. I hope you get jabbed soon.
 

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