Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

That’s probably true for mortality against identified cases. For every identified case, how many go unidentified and / or not recorded? Within that group of non-identified cases there will be people who’s symptoms are so mild, they don’t know they’ve had it, and people who are ill, but just crack on without getting tested/ confirmed. That could create a ratio of 10:1 or more between identified cases and actual number of infections. That would push the real mortality percentage much lower.

It is true for identified cases. That there are others is if course possible, but that is not how science works. Facts remain sacred , speculation is err .. speculative.
More over there is anecdotal reports that mild infections produce antibodies but not immunity...so I also put that inside the speculative box.

 

[Danidl]

case mortality rate evolves like the R number.
R is now up over 1 and case mortality rate is much, much lower than last spring. It may be due to the weather or may be the precautions we take in public places and at home.
I suspect that if you are aware of the danger, you react accordingly.

No.. mortality rate does not in any way relate to R.. except in the very obvious that more cases creates more death. The factors you describe of people taking greater care will affect the R value. but not the longer term prognosis for any positively confirmed victim . R is a number mathematically derived from fitting a curve to the observed number of cases ..not the reverse.
However, if the median age of new confirmed cases is dropping from the 60s to the 40s and now 35s , that should reduce the number of deaths in the short term

 

[oyster]

It is true for identified cases. That there are others is if course possible, but that is not how science works. Facts remain sacred , speculation is err .. speculative.
More over there is anecdotal reports that mild infections produce antibodies but not immunity...so I also put that inside the speculative box.

I have just had a book recommended which seriously questions "how science works" - or doesn't. (Link for convenience - not meant to promote the site.)

Science Fictions: Exposing Fraud, Bias, Negligence and Hype in Science
Stuart Ritchie
Imprint: Bodley Head
Published: 16/07/2020
ISBN: 9781847925657
Length: 368 Pages
RRP: £18.99
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Science-Fictions-Epidemic-Fraud-Negligence/dp/1847925650

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

It is true for identified cases. That there are others is if course possible, but that is not how science works. Facts remain sacred , speculation is err .. speculative.
More over there is anecdotal reports that mild infections produce antibodies but not immunity...so I also put that inside the speculative box.

What I suggest is how science works. You must factor in random elements, and with an infection such as Coronavirus, the very real phenomenon that symptoms vary from gravely ill / death, to absolutely nothing at all and everything in between. It would be preposterous to base a statistic such as mortality rate exclusively on known positive tests.

 

[Danidl]

What I suggest is how science works. You must factor in random elements, and with an infection such as Coronavirus, the very real phenomenon that symptoms vary from gravely ill / death, to absolutely nothing at all and everything in between. It would be preposterous to base a statistic such as mortality rate exclusively on known positive tests.

Nope. You measure, you infer, you can predict, you then construct an experiment, you measure again. , You ask yourself is this consistent with a previous measurement and present theory . If so you gain confidence ,if not you repeat until you can no longer deny it. Then you move on and repeat
Now I am not at all denying that the CV19 can affect different people with different outcomes, and we can speculate as to WHY. We,or more particularly those with experience in the field devise a plausible reason ,then then construct an experiment to test that plausible explanation and measure. The single dominant theme is measurement. It is possible that only 1 in a thousand persons who contact the virus pass it on, or have symptoms. What one does is recognise this as a possibility, and then construct experimental methods to test this hypothesis. Unless these unrecognised CV19 infections produce an effective and long duration immunity, they are basically irrelevant in any event.
What one does not do is invent an arbitrary "infection" rate in the absence of evidence.

At the moment we have three measurements.
1. No of people who have positively measured as having an active CV19 infection.. currently 23M
2. The number of people who have died subsequent to that measurement inthe last 7 months currently 0.8M
3. The number of people for whome some antibody test implies that they were affected with a CV19 type infection in the past .. number not known. Different public authorities are making different guessimates.

4. The number of people for whom treatment is finished ...and on whom I and worldometer suggest leads to a 5% mortality , is also uncertain as some public bodies are defining survival beyond a 2 or 3 weeks of initial positive infection as "cured".. So while that is quoted as 16M , the basis for that is suspect

Everything else ..and including to some extent #3 , #4 above are uncertain.

 

[Woosh]

No.. mortality rate does not in any way relate to R.. except in the very obvious that more cases creates more death. The factors you describe of people taking greater care will affect the R value. but not the longer term prognosis for any positively confirmed victim . R is a number mathematically derived from fitting a curve to the observed number of cases ..not the reverse.
However, if the median age of new confirmed cases is dropping from the 60s to the 40s and now 35s , that should reduce the number of deaths in the short term

it's the same with case mortality rate. Number of deaths per day/number of new cases per day and make it a moving average.
We are hovering around 22 deaths/1100 cases = 2% at the moment with possible lag of about 1-2 weeks being treated.
It used to be 100 deaths / 1000 cases at the end of lockdown. Back in April, 150 deaths/1000 cases.

 

[oyster]

I don't know what it is like in your areas, but round here a lot of older school and college students effectively have to drive every day.

If we combine insufficient bus and coach capacity with delays in new drivers being able to even book their tests, let alone sit and pass, we could see some pretty bad traffic at starts and ends of school days as parents are forced to drive their offspring. I find it difficult to blame parents being unsure or unwilling to allow their kids to travel on busses and coaches.

Shortage of 6,000 public buses puts UK’s school return at risk

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/22/shortage-of-6000-public-buses-puts-uks-school-return-at-risk

Driving test website for England and Wales crashes shortly after reopening

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/22/dvsa-driving-test-website-england-wales-crashes

 

[oldgroaner]

I note this comment:


https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/brexit-border-check-hull-port-4446547

Not being familiar with the geography (beyond looking at online maps), could there be any sense in have one each side? Could the choice make every lorry cross the bridge?

Immingham on the South banks handles more traffic that Hull on the North, it seems a good plan to localise the disruption for that reason

 

[oyster]

the average age of people catching the virus is much lower

Is that really the case?

We have little real understanding of the rate at which younger people caught the virus but remained more or less symptom-free.

Could it not be that the younger people are not as symptom-free as once they were?

 

[oldgroaner]

The New European@TheNewEuropean
·
7h
Boris Johnson ends holiday early after reports he angered Scottish landowner by pitching tent https://theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-ends-holiday-in-scotland-1-6804562…

oldgroaner@oldgroaner
Replying to @TheNewEuropean

Are we really expected to believe a Scottish landowner was angered when he found Boris had pitched a tent in his fridge?

 

[oyster]

The New European@TheNewEuropean
·
7h
Boris Johnson ends holiday early after reports he angered Scottish landowner by pitching tent https://theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-ends-holiday-in-scotland-1-6804562…

oldgroaner@oldgroaner
Replying to @TheNewEuropean

Are we really expected to believe a Scottish landowner was angered when he found Boris had pitched a tent in his fridge?

You mucked up the link. Should be:

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-ends-holiday-in-scotland-1-6804562

A government source confirmed to the PA news agency that the prime minister has returned from Scotland.

Now that is bad news.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Nope. You measure, you infer, you can predict, you then construct an experiment, you measure again. , You ask yourself is this consistent with a previous measurement and present theory . If so you gain confidence ,if not you repeat until you can no longer deny it. Then you move on and repeat
Now I am not at all denying that the CV19 can affect different people with different outcomes, and we can speculate as to WHY. We,or more particularly those with experience in the field devise a plausible reason ,then then construct an experiment to test that plausible explanation and measure. The single dominant theme is measurement. It is possible that only 1 in a thousand persons who contact the virus pass it on, or have symptoms. What one does is recognise this as a possibility, and then construct experimental methods to test this hypothesis. Unless these unrecognised CV19 infections produce an effective and long duration immunity, they are basically irrelevant in any event.
What one does not do is invent an arbitrary "infection" rate in the absence of evidence.

At the moment we have three measurements.
1. No of people who have positively measured as having an active CV19 infection.. currently 23M
2. The number of people who have died subsequent to that measurement inthe last 7 months currently 0.8M
3. The number of people for whome some antibody test implies that they were affected with a CV19 type infection in the past .. number not known. Different public authorities are making different guessimates.

4. The number of people for whom treatment is finished ...and on whom I and worldometer suggest leads to a 5% mortality , is also uncertain as some public bodies are defining survival beyond a 2 or 3 weeks of initial positive infection as "cured".. So while that is quoted as 16M , the basis for that is suspect

Everything else ..and including to some extent #3 , #4 above are uncertain.

Incorrect.

You must try much harder and not allow your thoughts to wander.

Avoid using an unnecessary quantity of words.

See me please.

 

[oyster]

I see this story across the media. Given how long people have been pointing at various forms of rave, just why has it taken "them" so long to make a move? It appears like so much else, fail to act promptly then bring in a blunt instrument.

I foresee difficulty in implementing this. Quite possibly, the legal niceties will ensure that if the event fail to go ahead, no-one can get fined. Which might result in enforcement being delayed until the even actually gets going so that a fine is possible. What constitutes organising? Is providing equipment such as sound systems an offence?

If one offence is deemed to deserve a £10,000 fine, on someone who might have few assets, is there anything that can be done against repeat offenders who might think themselves untouchable?

Coronavirus: New £10,000 fines for organisers of illegal raves from Friday

 

[Danidl]

Is that really the case?

We have little real understanding of the rate at which younger people caught the virus but remained more or less symptom-free.

Could it not be that the younger people are not as symptom-free as once they were?

Again the only number with value is the numbers positively tested with CV19, and yes the median age is dropping. So that is truly the case. Not really unsurprising.. the older people are more canny.

 

[Danidl]

I see this story across the media. Given how long people have been pointing at various forms of rave, just why has it taken "them" so long to make a move? It appears like so much else, fail to act promptly then bring in a blunt instrument.

I foresee difficulty in implementing this. Quite possibly, the legal niceties will ensure that if the event fail to go ahead, no-one can get fined. Which might result in enforcement being delayed until the even actually gets going so that a fine is possible. What constitutes organising? Is providing equipment such as sound systems an offence?

If one offence is deemed to deserve a £10,000 fine, on someone who might have few assets, is there anything that can be done against repeat offenders who might think themselves untouchable?

No doubt there is chortling in the UK over this one.. But there is real anger in Ireland. Some 80 of the highest politicians in the land ,from across the political divide attended a celebration ..A Golf Society dinner last week. This included new Ministers, Senior Judges , and of Brexit importance, the EU Trade Negotiator Phil Hogan .
Presumably at the time the Dinner was planned, the expectation was that the rules would be relaxed according to a timetable designed many weeks ago. Even so it would have been problematic, as the organisers were using two adjacent function rooms each holding below the magical 50 ..which certainly was outside the spirit of the law.
Anyway only two days earlier, the Cabinet, at which a number of these people attended , and voted agreed to Restrict numbers ,and delay the timetable because of a resurgence. They cannot claim ignorance. The legally allowed number is 15
On one level it is an enormous own goal for a newly formed Government, and intense anger to a population denied attending funerals or weddings months. There have been resignations from posts of responsibility ,and there will be more.

 

[Danidl]

Incorrect.

You must try much harder and not allow your thoughts to wander.

Avoid using an unnecessary quantity of words.

See me please.

Deflection!

 

[flecc]

No doubt there is chortling in the UK over this one..

No. Though Ireland still has something of an obsession with the UK, entirely understandably, the UK getting any pleasure from Irish misfortune is something from long ago in the past.

The nearest to that more recently was during the N.I. troubles and only concerned N.I., but even that is history to most in Britain now. We have our own problems to put it very mildly.
.

 

[RossG]

It was always said that when America sneezes we all catch a cold, well it seems now when somebody coughs we could all catch something nasty. What happens in one country can effect the whole world because of the way people migrate and move around, covid has highlighted this perfectly.

 

[Nev]

One possible reason for what appears to be lower death rates from the CV could be this:-

'One alternative suggestion is that infectious doses of the Covid-19 virus, transmitted from one person to another, may be getting smaller thanks to social distancing. Lower doses would then be easier for our immune systems to tackle, so death rates would drop.'

More details can be found here.

Why do Covid fatalities remain low when infection numbers are rising?

While some scientists believe the virus has become less deadly, others look at the factors that suggest otherwise

www.theguardian.com

 

[Danidl]

No. Though Ireland still has something of an obsession with the UK, entirely understandably, the UK getting any pleasure from Irish misfortune is something from long ago in the past.

The nearest to that more recently was during the N.I. troubles and only concerned N.I., but even that is history to most in Britain now. We have our own problems to put it very mildly.
.

Well the Daily Express is having a field day. There is a potential Brexit connection. Phil Hogan the EU Trade Commissioner ,who will be in charge of any UK /EU deals post December, is implicated, was the most high profile guest and has been damaged . I do not expect him to resign , but it is an embarrassment.