Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

I wonder if the infected nurse in this example would come under the 80/20 rule? I am sure I have read somewhere that 20% of people infected with Covid are responsible (the super spreaders) for infecting around 80% of other people with the virus.

This 80/20 rule seems to pop up in all kinds of situations. I watch a lot of military history programmes and I think I remember seeing a stat that during the second world war 20% of fighter pilots were responsible for around 80% of the kills of enemy planes (this was in all air forces not just the British).

In many large companies just 20% of the workforce are responsible for 80% of the profit of the company (probably not easy to identify that 20% thought).

Is the 80/20 rule a thing or just a quirk of statistics and when studied in depth it doesn't actually exist?

Although often quoted as 80:20, figures from reality (in all areas of activity) are often somewhat adrift - 90:10, or 73:27.

I think it is exactly what you would expect. But in the case of covid-19, imagine a group of people all infected but at slightly different stages coming into contact with many more who are not infected. (My mind's eye has two conveyor belts going in opposite directions.) At any one instant one infected person is both closest and at the most infectious stage - they would account for the 80%. But an hour earlier or later, and a different member of the infectious might have been the top spreader. Or the most infectious person is further away from the uninfected which would reduce rate of infection.

 

[oldgroaner]

"let's take back control"
Reuters @Reuters
· 4h
President Donald Trump said that he was responsible for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to ban Huawei from Britain's 5G network from the end of 2027 https://reut.rs/3h1ZAFm

And give it away again?

 

[flecc]

I think I remember seeing a stat that during the second world war 20% of fighter pilots were responsible for around 80% of the kills of enemy planes (this was in all air forces not just the British).

In many large companies just 20% of the workforce are responsible for 80% of the profit of the company (probably not easy to identify that 20% thought).

There are usually other factors involved. For example we produced a little over 18,000 Spitfires for WW2 but only 13,600 Hurricanes, but the Hurricanes shot down far, far more enemy aircraft than the Spitfires, contrary to popular belief. The four main reasons for that are well understood, but obviously not by the general public who mistakenly believe the Spitfire was a marvellous fighter plane. Glamorous yes, marvellous no.

You can check all the facts and figures online with either the Air Ministry or the RAF, they both have the same.

I don't know about 20% of the workforce being responsible for 80% of the profit of the company, but with the last company I worked for I was responsible for 100% of the profit! That was because it was going broke when I joined and I turned it round into substantial profitability, to do that being the reason they engaged me. It was that or I'd be out on my ear like the previous three!
.

 

[Nev]

2. The Government is desperate for a trade deal with the USA, and now that we are out of the EU we have no real leverage, so when Trump says jump Boris says how high?

This piece by Rafael Behr in the Guardian today explains the situation far better than I did yesterday, it's well worth a read.

Brexit was meant to make Britain global. It has made us friendless | Rafael Behr

Britain has taken security and defence cooperation off the table in talks. But these are more important than fish quotas, says Guardian columnist Rafael Behr

www.theguardian.com

 

[Woosh]

I like this bit:

Quote:

Any prime minister would prioritise the security alliance with the US over a commercial deal with China. But Johnson happens to be the first prime minister to be confronted with the choice in stark, binary terms, because his trade policy is a blank sheet of paper and Donald Trump is holding the pen.

and this bit:

Quote:

The UK national interest requires a new strategic partnership with the EU, but Johnson refuses even to include that concept in the negotiation. The obstacle used to be confidence that Britain had no need of Europe. It looks now more like fear of admitting how much of Europe Britain still needs.

 

[flecc]

How's this for three month accurate forecasting:

LINK
.

 

[Nev]

How's this for three month accurate forecasting:

Nice one, now can you provide me with the winning numbers for the next National Lottery draw

 

[flecc]

Nice one, now can you provide me with the winning numbers for the next National Lottery draw

I'll pass them to you after I've used them.
.

 

[oyster]

Grayling failing. Again!

Seems he has not been made chair of the committee.

Chris Grayling fails to become intelligence and security chair
Conservative colleague Julian Lewis secures votes of opposition MPs in humiliation for PM’s pick
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/15/chris-grayling-fails-to-become-intelligence-and-security-chair

 

[oldgroaner]

fascinating
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/07/15/sagegate-government-still-chasing-long-term-herd-immunity-for-covid-19/

Quite simply this government will kill thousands more before it's done.

 

[oldgroaner]

Grayling failing. Again!

Seems he has not been made chair of the committee.

Chris Grayling fails to become intelligence and security chair
Conservative colleague Julian Lewis secures votes of opposition MPs in humiliation for PM’s pick
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/15/chris-grayling-fails-to-become-intelligence-and-security-chair

Are Johno's minions revolting at last?

 

[oyster]

fascinating
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/07/15/sagegate-government-still-chasing-long-term-herd-immunity-for-covid-19/

Quite simply this government will kill thousands more before it's done.

My question, for now, is whether that includes me and partner?

Seems to be a given that 100,000 will appear quite soon. And I can't see it suddenly stopping there.

 

[Wicky]

I don’t really care, it can stay as far as I’m concerned. However, I don’t think it should be pulled down and thrown in the harbour. Such an act would only be undertaken by a bunch of untamed animals acting on tribal instinct.

I'm sure some folk thought much the same about Jimi's rendition of 'Star Spangled Banner'...

 

[oyster]

Are Johno's minions revolting at last?

Always were.

Oh! I see what you mean.

 

[Wicky]

How's this for three month accurate forecasting:

LINK
.

March 20th ;-)

Challenge for politicians (and us all) is keeping the patient (country) alive and functioning 6–9 months (poss. longer) while on lockdown undergoing treatment...

Brexit, for once some facts.

Corny lie of the day in the Telegraph " How Boris Johnson will have to sacrifice his liberal principles to save Britain from coronavirus The Prime Minister will have to use more stick and less carrot if he is to save the nation from the aversion to authority he innately shares Blimey! I never...

www.pedelecs.co.uk

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

This is simply disgusting,

 

[oyster]

This is simply disgusting,

Compare with some similar figures from 2011. (I have only pasted those starting A - rest by following link.)

Charity	Chief executive	Latest salary in £s (plus benefits but excluding pensions)	Salary in £s for the previous year	Pay rise (%)	Income £m	Amount in £s spent on chief exec's pay for every £1,000 of income
Action for Blind People *1	Stephen Remington	76,500	65,000		21.0	3.64
ActionAid	Salil Shetty	86,527	84,173	2.8	73.0	1.19
Addaction *2	Peter Martin *3	65,000	75,000		15.0	4.33
Age Concern England	Gordon Lishman	94,000	89,000	5.6	64.0	1.47
Alzheimer's Society	Harry Cayton *4	74,000	70,459	5.0	27.4	2.70
Arthritis Care *2	William Butler	65,000	65,000		11.7	5.56
Arthritis Research Campaign *1	Fergus Logan *5	76,000	65,000		26.1	2.91
Association for International Cancer Research	Derek Napier	45,000	37,500	20.0	15.1	2.98

https://www.theguardian.com/society/salarysurvey/table/0,12406,1042677,00.html

 

[oyster]

Be honest, the surprise would have been if he had read it:

Boris Johnson indicates at PMQs he has not read winter coronavirus report

Keir Starmer presses PM over scientists’ call for preparations for possible second wave

 

[RossG]

I'm sure some folk thought much the same about Jimi's rendition of 'Star Spangled Banner'...

There's a statue of him in the south of England ... who can tell me where ?

 

[oyster]

Just in case you were wondering where that rash came from...

Skin rash should be considered as a fourth key sign of COVID-19
July 15, 2020

Data from the COVID Symptom Study shows that characteristic skin rashes and ‘COVID fingers and toes’ should be considered as key diagnostic signs of the disease, and can occur in the absence of any other symptoms.
The COVID Symptom Study, led by researchers from King’s College London and health science company ZOE, asks participants to log their health and any new potential symptoms of COVID-19 on a daily basis. After noticing that a number of participants were reporting unusual skin rashes, the researchers focused on data from around 336,000 regular UK app users.
Researchers discovered that 8.8% of people reporting a positive coronavirus swab test had experienced a skin rash as part of their symptoms, compared with 5.4% of people with a negative test result. Similar results were seen in a further 8.2% of users with a rash who did not have a coronavirus test, but still reported classic COVID-19 symptoms, such as cough, fever or anosmia (loss of smell).
To investigate further, the team set up a separate online survey, gathering images and information from nearly 12,000 people with skin rashes and suspected or confirmed COVID-19. The team particularly sought images from people of colour, who are currently under-represented in dermatology resources.
17% of respondents testing positive for coronavirus reported a rash as the first symptom of the disease. And for one in five people (21%) who reported a rash and were confirmed as being infected with coronavirus, the rash was their only symptom.
The rashes associated with COVID-19 fall into three categories:

• Hive-type rash (urticaria): Sudden appearance of raised bumps on the skin which come and go quite quickly over hours and are usually very itchy. It can involve any part of the body, and often starts with intense itching of the palms or soles, and can cause swelling of the lips and eyelids. These rashes can present quite early on in the infection, but can also last a long time afterwards.
• ‘Prickly heat’ or chickenpox-type rash (erythemato-papular or erythemato-vesicular rash): Areas of small, itchy red bumps that can occur anywhere on the body, but particularly the elbows and knees as well as the back of the hands and feet. The rash can persist for days or weeks.
• COVID fingers and toes (chilblains): Reddish and purplish bumps on the fingers or toes, which may be sore but not usually itchy. This type of rash is most specific to COVID-19, is more common in younger people with the disease, and tends to present later on.

Although COVID-19 is often thought of as a disease that affects the respiratory system, rashes had been reported in a number of cases of people in China and Europe who had been hospitalised with severe symptoms of the disease. However, this is the first and largest study to systematically gather data about skin rashes in milder cases in the wider population.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/skin-rash-covid