Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

Corny lie of the day in the Telegraph
"
How Boris Johnson will have to sacrifice his liberal principles to save Britain from coronavirus
The Prime Minister will have to use more stick and less carrot if he is to save the nation from the aversion to authority he innately shares


Blimey! I never knew he actually had anything that could remotely be described as "principles"

 

[Danidl]

Lack of testing and data gathering in the UK might mean we never know the IFR (infection mortality rate; I had to look it up). We'll know the number of deaths fairly accurately, but not the number of infections.

..not necessarily..and this is a problem that maybe Germany shares. People die from linked infections from opportunistic microbes. So while the statistics of the number of dead people is accurate, the proximate cause of death may very well be masked. Meanwhile the virus becomes more endemic.

 

[Wicky]

Challenge for politicians (and us all) is keeping the patient (country) alive and functioning 6–9 months (poss. longer) while on lockdown undergoing treatment...

Restriction to continue ‘most of a year’

Policies to limit the spread of coronavirus would need to be in place for "at least most of a year" to prevent intensive care units being overwhelmed, according to official scientific advice to the government.

The documents, prepared by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said alternating between more and less strict measures could "plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity".

 

[Woosh]

IFR is as defined by WHO, a pretty good yardstick.
In the UK, currently 144/3269 = 4.4%

The most worrying is the probability that hospital treatment fails: only 79 recovered, 144 died.
Treatment needs to be found quickly.

 

[oldgroaner]

IFR is as defined by WHO, a pretty good yardstick.
In the UK, currently 144/3269 = 4.4%

The most worrying is the probability that hospital treatment fails: only 79 recovered, 144 died.
Treatment needs to be found quickly.

My point right from the start
No matter what the cost
We must have a cure, no excuses accepted, if those in charge can't procure one they must be replaced
Failure should carry consequences.

 

[flecc]

More evidence of how containment fails.

Just heard that in one country where the schools have been closed, the teenagers are gathering in large numbers in parks holding what they call "Corona Parties".

Of course the authorities are less than delighted.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

In the Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/19/far-requiring-delay-coronavirus-strengthens-hand-post-brexit/#
Far from requiring delay, coronavirus strengthens our hand in post-Brexit talks

The idiots are doing the equivalent of arguing with foreign passengers over deckchairs on the Titanic as it sinks
It really is time that Right wing rags were closed down

 

[Woosh]

More evidence of how containment fails.

Just heard that in one country where the schools have been closed, the teenagers are gathering in large numbers in parks holding what they call "Corona Parties".

Of course the authorities are less than delighted.
.

we were equally foolish in our days.

 

[Woosh]

In the Telegraph
The idiots are doing the equivalent of arguing with foreign passengers over deckchairs on the Titanic as it sinks
It really is time that Right wing rags were closed down

ignore them.
by this time next year, we'll probably still in transition.

 

[Wicky]

More evidence of how containment fails.

Just heard that in one country where the schools have been closed, the teenagers are gathering in large numbers in parks holding what they call "Corona Parties".

Of course the authorities are less than delighted.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

Scientists refute Boris Johnson’s claims about coronavirus isolation

Despite Boris Johnson claiming the tide can be turned within 12 weeks, experts believe that social isolation measures will need to be...

www.theneweuropean.co.uk

 

[Danidl]

More evidence of how containment fails.

Just heard that in one country where the schools have been closed, the teenagers are gathering in large numbers in parks holding what they call "Corona Parties".

Of course the authorities are less than delighted.
.

Probably less contagious than sitting in a centrally ventilated lecture hall with 300 others for hours on end.
Containment works... And in the UK should have started 2 weeks ago.

 

[Woosh]

Probably less contagious than sitting in a centrally ventilated lecture hall with 300 others for hours on end.

In Hubei, they contact traced an early days spreader who was a coach for just over 1 hour.
More than 80% of passengers in that coach were inflected.
Although a lecture hall may be better because of the large volume of air.

 

[sjpt]

we were equally foolish in our days.

Apparently Boris Johnson's father hasn't got beyond those days.

Boris Johnson's father says he will still go to pub despite government’s coronavirus advice

Stanley Johnson's comments came less than 24 hours after his son urged British public to 'avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other social venues'

www.independent.co.uk

 

[oldgroaner]

Apparently Boris Johnson's father hasn't got beyond those days.

Boris Johnson's father says he will still go to pub despite government’s coronavirus advice

Stanley Johnson's comments came less than 24 hours after his son urged British public to 'avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other social venues'

www.independent.co.uk

Hopefully he will take Boris with him

Did I say that out loud?

 

[flecc]

Containment works...

Only in some environments and only if the public wholeheartedly co-operate, and they clearly aren't doing here in London and Surrey.

Nor can they, try standing a metre apart on a Victoria Line underground train going through Central London, you'd be doing well with a centimetre gap. And at Warren Street Station at times the bodies can be tightly packed in contact from the street, down through two escalators, along the tunnel and on the northbound platform.

Similarly on buses sitting side by side in contact, and with over 70 people on the bus. Or our trams, officially limited to 150 passengers but at peak times reaching 50% over that.

And in my large supermarket where there are 20 tightly packed self service checkouts less than metre apart from each other,

Containment is better than no containment, but as a policy it has as many holes as a colander.
.

 

[Woosh]

Distance may not be enough.

As I was going to the Post Office yesterday, I walked about 10m behind a smoker. A little breeze blew her smoke into my eyes.
If she was infected, that smoke went through her lungs then to my eyes.

After leaving the Post Office where I shared the air-conditioned warm air with about 200 other people inside the same WH Smiths/Post Office (they co-inhabit nowadays), I walked to Sainsbury's next where I shared another air-conditioned warm air with about another lot of 200 people.
A shabby guy stinking booze and wee was in the next aisle. If he was infected, the separating shelves are clearly not enough to stop his BO, therefore not enough to stop virus carrying droplets.
You can see where I am going with this. ITV was filming inside one of the best hospitals in Italy. Patients on trolleys everywhere, about 2M from one another. Each one has a flimsy plastic bell shaped balloon covering his face to supply him with oxygen. The air that come out of their lungs fill the room with virus particles - at high enough concentration, they will get through the exposed skin of anyone in the room.
In two weeks, we may be where Italy is today.
Be prisoner in your own home may be the only way.

 

[flecc]

Be prisoner in your own home may be the only way.

Absolutely, that is where I am right now and will stay.

Unfortunately though, if the latest year plus predictions are right, my three months of isolation isn't anything like enough.

Still, if I can repeat it four times over with minimal periods of restocking at off peak times between them, I may yet be lucky.
.

 

[Woosh]

How about people without symptoms but tested having sufficient level of their own antibodies may be allowed to wear a badge: 'I passed the Corvid19 test' and allowed to return to normal life?

 

[Danidl]

Distance may not be enough.

As I was going to the Post Office yesterday, I walked about 10m behind a smoker. A little breeze blew her smoke into my eyes.
If she was infected, that smoke went through her lungs then to my eyes.

After leaving the Post Office where I shared the air-conditioned warm air with about 200 other people inside the same WH Smiths/Post Office (they co-inhabit nowadays), I walked to Sainsbury's next where I shared another air-conditioned warm air with about another lot of 200 people.
A shabby guy stinking booze and wee was in the next aisle. If he was infected, the separating shelves are clearly not enough to stop his BO, therefore not enough to stop virus carrying droplets.
You can see where I am going with this. ITV was filming inside one of the best hospitals in Italy. Patients on trolleys everywhere, about 2M from one another. Each one has a flimsy plastic bell shaped balloon covering his face to supply him with oxygen. The air that come out of their lungs fill the room with virus particles - at high enough concentration, they will get through the exposed skin of anyone in the room.
In two weeks, we may be where Italy is today.
Be prisoner in your own home may be the only way.

Well if those people in the Italian hospital are infected ..which they are, it makes no difference what they are absorbing RNA fragments along with their oxygen. ..The amount of RNA they themselves are producing dwarfs it.
So yes stay home, limit exposure by going to supermarkets at slack times, walk on empty streets ,wash hands and gloves on returning home. And in my case,..Have given instructions ..no lettuce or uncooked vegetables . I would be wary of bread also since ,we get it from craft bakers. And unsealed aat the shop so it is almost always toasted.