Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

That thing that inhabits golf courses:



Jabin Botsford

@jabinbotsford



https://twitter.com/jabinbotsford/status/1240701140141879298



Close up of President @realDonaldTrump notes is seen where he crossed out "Corona" and replaced it with "Chinese" Virus as he speaks with his coronavirus task force today at the White House. #trump #trumpnotes





11.8K

6:06 PM - Mar 19, 2020

 

[oyster]

I've posted that the government were wrong to advise people not to buy in stock and create shortage. I said that we have huge stocks of most things, even years of of them, and that the only problem was delay in getting replacement stocks out.

There is a world of difference between rational planned purchasing for predicted difficulties and buying, buying, buying regardless of any likelihood of need.

As you say, if you need to self-isolate for your own protection or that of others, you need those things. Getting things delivered is proving difficult as the supermarkets simply don't have the capacity. (Our butcher is happy to deliver for free - minimum order £15. I think that is pretty good.)

We started to increase the amount we have have on hand a while ago but never engaged in grabbing the last packet. Partner does have several issues so we are concerned - and she is not able to drive at present.

 

[flecc]

There is a world of difference between rational planned purchasing for predicted difficulties and buying, buying, buying regardless of any likelihood of need.

I agree, some people seem to have been snatching crazy items that were never at risk of going short. They even emptied my largest supermarket of sugar, but Sainsburys response was to put some huge 5 kilo bags of granulated in. That'll test them as they try to lug those away!
.

 

[oyster]

Question Time - is that really Matt Hancock? Looks like an escaped criminal from Victorian times.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Question Time - is that really Matt Hancock? Looks like an escaped criminal from Victorian times.

Hancock: He looks like someone has taken an old suit, then painted a face in a balloon and sat the whole thing in a chair.

 

[oldgroaner]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8125507/The-Pope-says-asked-God-stop-coronavirus-epidemic.html
The Pope says he has asked God to stop the coronavirus epidemic
Jonathan Pie

@JonathanPieNews
4h

Oh thank f**k for that.
My response
oldgroaner @oldgroaner
Hell is I'm told like a good English Pub, you can't get near to the fire for the Clergy

 

[wheeler]

Of course there's a lot of staff in number 10, and I imagine they'll be smuggling the odd roll out under their coats.

I remember asking a school friend of mine where his dad worked. He said he didn't know what it was called but they make toilet rolls and lightbulbs.

 

[Danidl]

Yes. Big contrast. Still, given our PM, I'm pleased he isn't an A&E doctor

The number of people he would affect would be more limited.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

0.9% IFR (overall infection fatality rate), much worse for pensioners.

and the peak of the disease is in December 2020. Until then, the number will rise faster and faster.
There won't be enough hospital beds.

but boris says we'll be fine in twelve weeks and I cannot see any reason not to trust him

 

[Wicky]

but boris says we'll be fine in twelve weeks and I cannot see any reason not to trust him

 

[oyster]

but boris says we'll be fine in twelve weeks and I cannot see any reason not to trust him

Reads as the blind who is being led by the blind (and incompetent).

 

[Woosh]

but boris says we'll be fine in twelve weeks and I cannot see any reason not to trust him

he has no idea...

 

[oyster]

Possible relatively good news? If we believe...

Trials to begin on Covid-19 vaccine in UK next month

Researchers hope to conduct animal tests next week and safety trials as early as next month
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/19/uk-drive-develop-coronavirus-vaccine-science

 

[oyster]

At least there will be a crowd for mass funerals

But as churches have ceased services there won't be masses at the masses for the mass funerals.

 

[sjpt]

but boris says we'll be fine in twelve weeks and I cannot see any reason not to trust him

To be fair, I think he said the tide would turn then, not we'd be fine. If you look at the black (do nothing) line that appears to be the case: it might be an extreme spring tide but it will turn.
~~~

More seriously, this modelling is clearly very useful, but also models like this are inherently very unstable and tiny changes to inputs can make vast changes to output (as I am sure the Imperial people are well aware, I'm not trying to teach grandmother here). For example, it seems odd that in the 'do nothing' scenario things have settled down almost completely by August (even if there has been a huge number of deaths in the interim). This seems highly improbable to me; I would expect that there would be the terrible peak shown, but that after that the graph would still stay pretty high. If it were my model I'd be looking very closely at what lead to that conclusion.

Further out, there is good reason to believe in the orange and green peaks, but their scale and timing is extremely uncertain.

 

[daveboy]

Words of wisdom

“People are dying who have never died before.” ~ Donald Trump, 3.18.2020

It's the way he tells 'em!

Fake News.

Did President Trump Say 'People Are Dying Today That Have Never Died Before'?

A number of hoaxes have circulated amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.snopes.com

 

[oldgroaner]

Fake News.

Did President Trump Say 'People Are Dying Today That Have Never Died Before'?

A number of hoaxes have circulated amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.snopes.com

Really?

 

[daveboy]

Really?

I can't find a video online and plenty of sites say he never said it......Still thick as mince though.

 

[Woosh]

To be fair, I think he said the tide would turn then, not we'd be fine. If you look at the black (do nothing) line that appears to be the case: it might be an extreme spring tide but it will turn.
~~~

More seriously, this modelling is clearly very useful, but also models like this are inherently very unstable and tiny changes to inputs can make vast changes to output (as I am sure the Imperial people are well aware, I'm not trying to teach grandmother here). For example, it seems odd that in the 'do nothing' scenario things have settled down almost completely by August (even if there has been a huge number of deaths in the interim). This seems highly improbable to me; I would expect that there would be the terrible peak shown, but that after that the graph would still stay pretty high. If it were my model I'd be looking very closely at what lead to that conclusion.

Further out, there is good reason to believe in the orange and green peaks, but their scale and timing is extremely uncertain.

our current path is somewhere between the brown and green plots.
you see there are two peaks: one in late spring and one in late autumn.
Hospitals can run out of beds in first or second week of May and again in late September (bottom picture where the red plot intersects the brown and green plots). The majority of sufferers will have to stay at home.
The second in late autumn is the bigger wave.
Still, the original WHO estimate 3.4% IFR will be much, much reduced.

 

[sjpt]

Still, the original WHO estimate 3.4% IFR will be much, much reduced.

Lack of testing and data gathering in the UK might mean we never know the IFR (infection mortality rate; I had to look it up). We'll know the number of deaths fairly accurately, but not the number of infections.