Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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I know there are still results to come in, but what strikes me is how badly Labour are doing.
not as bad as expected, much less so than UKIP.

seats up for grab: 8,000

so far: 3,101 declared seats

Conservatives: 1,210 (39%)
Labour: 894 (29%)
LibDems: 562 (18%)
UKIP: 17 (0.5%)
Green: 48 (1%)
 
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oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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Of course, Sunderland is the home of those who most vigorously supported Leave and thought they were winners.

It still hasn't sunk in that they are losers.
.
As just percentages, we can't know if 90% just stayed away. (Obviously extra info can be found but it is tedious to have to do so.)
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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As just percentages, we can't know if 90% just stayed away. (Obviously extra info can be found but it is tedious to have to do so.)
I wonder how many of those Libdem new voters would have moved to, or stayed with, Labour had JC had a more coherent policy towards Brexit.?? As it is Tories have lost support for not providing Brexit, and Labour for not opposing it?
https://mol.im/a/6988475 ??
 
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gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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not as bad as expected, much less so than UKIP.

seats up for grab: 8,000

so far: 3,101 declared seats

Conservatives: 1,210 (39%)
Labour: 894 (29%)
LibDems: 562 (18%)
UKIP: 17 (0.5%)
Green: 48 (1%)
my real point was that they should have trounced the conservatives and haven't, which to me shows they are even less trusted
 
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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I wonder how many of those Libdem new voters would have moved to, or stayed with, Labour had JC had a more coherent policy towards Brexit.?? As it is Tories have lost support for not providing Brexit, and Labour for not opposing it?
https://mol.im/a/6988475 ??
Hard to say. One thing I'm certain of though is that the resurgence of the Greens is largely due to the luck of the climate change protests happening just before.

They could not have been timed better.
.
 
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Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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my real point was that they should have trounced the conservatives and haven't, which to me shows they are even less trusted
Labour are 70/30 remain and the conservatives 70/30 leave, not a huge difference. Both parties share the same responsibilities toward brexit.
Conservatives will lose maybe 800 seats against Labour possibly 200 seats due to their composition, but out of 8,000 seats, a substantial number but that's not lethal for either, conservatives still have more seats than Labour when the count is done.
The only conclusion so far is the result seems to confirm the 8%-12% remain's lead in the polls.
 

vfr400

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Jun 12, 2011
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A public health spokesperson has issued an urgent warning about trying to nosh off elephants after a member of the public took ‘a full face load’ near Manchester.

According to witnesses, a man in his thirties was left ‘visibly shaken’ after the incident earlier today, and this soon turned to anger after it became clear that the elephant involved was Indian as opposed to African.

One witness said, ‘It was all over so quickly.’

‘One toot and suddenly the gentleman had a face like a painter’s radio.’
Have a read of this if you think that's funny.


Surprisingly, it seems that the press forgot to mention the other incidents, where two people punched TR in the face on the same day. A bunch of fascists turned up (Antifa, I think) and started shouting and heckling, then one of them, a girl, out of nowhere and for no reason, just swung a punch at him. The police didn't seem to be interested, so TR's bodyguards started to usher them away until the inevitable happened - they decided that they didn't want to leave and were going to fight for their right to stay. Two of them ended up in hospital. I think one of them was the girl. Please don't think that she was some sort of victim. She was a violent thug that just went there to cause trouble and she was throwing punches that would have worried Wladimir Klitschko. AFAICS, they got everything they deserved. They started it, which I guess is why no charges were made. It could have all been avoided if the police did what they're supposed to to keep some sort of order and deal with the offenders.
 
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vfr400

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Jun 12, 2011
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not as bad as expected, much less so than UKIP.

seats up for grab: 8,000

so far: 3,101 declared seats

Conservatives: 1,210 (39%)
Labour: 894 (29%)
LibDems: 562 (18%)
UKIP: 17 (0.5%)
Green: 48 (1%)
If any of us had stood as independents, even without a campaign, we'd probably have got voted in. It's what I've been saying. People just want to vote anti-establishment. You will see it even more in the MEP elections. The results will be shocking!
 

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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If any of us had stood as independents, even without a campaign, we'd probably have got voted in. It's what I've been saying. People just want to vote anti-establishment. You will see it even more in the MEP elections. The results will be shocking!
if you look at the ratio number of candidates / seats won - about 8 / 1 in Southend, do you think it's worth it?
 
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vfr400

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Jun 12, 2011
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I know there are still results to come in, but what strikes me is how badly Labour are doing. You would have expected them to be doing a lot better in the face of such an incompetent, divided and untrusted party as the Conservatives. Obviously this does not always transfer to a GE but I would imagine their will be some worried faces at party HQ. The Conservatives, while doing badly don't seem as bad as they expected
These sort of things don't do the labour party much good. I guess she's not clever enough to figure out that half the population are men.
David Lammy doesn't help their cause much either. Calling everybody that doesn't agree with him a white supremacist or Nazi, is not going to win many votes.
 

vfr400

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Jun 12, 2011
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Basildon
Professor Sir John Curtice has calculated how Thursday's vote would translate across Britain in the next GE:

I wouldn't pay too much attention to that. They're probably using algorithms that are based on past experience of how council elections relate to general elections, but we're living in strange times. Everything is getting turned on its head. We have Brexit party coming from nowhere, not represented in the council elections.

The longer the uncertainty over Brexit lasts, the worse it'll be for both Labour and Conservatives. The trend is that they're going downwards. If we get an agreeable outcome for Brexit before the next election, it can only help Conservatives. Whatever happens, it looks bad for Labour. What can they do to save the day?
 
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Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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I wouldn't pay too much attention to that. They're probably using algorithms that are based on past experience of how council elections relate to general elections, but we're living in strange times. Everything is getting turned on its head. We have Brexit party coming from nowhere, not represented in the council elections.

The longer the uncertainty over Brexit lasts, the worse it'll be for both Labour and Conservatives. The trend is that they're going downwards. If we get an agreeable outcome for Brexit before the next election, it can only help Conservatives. Whatever happens, it looks bad for Labour. What can they do to save the day?
the BXP has a very slick digital campaign going on for a while on twitter (introducing xxx as a candidate, prominent opposition personalities like Andrew Adonis contradicting themselves), I think their momentum has peaked because they run out of material, as simple as that.
Some polls give them at the moment the same level of support as Labour party but if TM manages to get her deal through before May 23rd, the tory press is going to turn against Farage and you will see half of their supporters going back to their conservative association preparing for either fresh GE or second referendum.
Can Labour save the day? that depends on what you mean by saving the day. Whatever happens to brexit, LibDems are getting stronger. Don't forget, each council seat is one family turned activists. You need people knocking on doors for elections. I don't think the BXP has that many foot soldiers as the Libdems and the Greens. Real election costs a lot of money, Farage will need big donations to fight the next GE. I don't think he'll get many billionaires backing him, his ambition is closer to home, he wants to beat Boris Johnson. If they kill one another in a duel, the country will benefit. Failing that, if BJ is out of parliament, the country will still benefit.
 

vfr400

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Jun 12, 2011
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A day in the life of an MEP campaigner. This video shows all the assaults on TR. The media went along with the milkshake slipping out of the guy's hand, and he was just on his way to work when he bumped in to TR. Now you can see why I say they can't be trusted. I still can't understand why the media never mentioned the physical assaults and massive punch-up.


I think it was two out of the three that you can see at 5.25 that ended up in hospital. That big guy (doesn't look so big there but is the size of a gorilla) in the hoodie got knocked out by a slip of lad on Tommy's side.
 
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