Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

Remember those Remainers are the very same people who thought us joining the Euro would be a good idea! (Imagine the disaster that would have been!)

we don't know because our inflation was then (Back Wednesday, 16-Sept-1992) HIGH compared to Germany, France Benelux etc that the Pound could not be kept within the 'snake' that was the ERM.
Notice that we have had higher inflation than in the Eurozone ever since its inception.
Had we joined, inflation and mortgage rate would have been much lower.
Remember high inflation hurt the poor much more than the rich. They pay a high proportion of their income to the banks.
If you were among the poor, getting out of the ERM and not joining the Euro is a bad decision. If you own shares and houses, then not joining the Euro is a good decision.

 

[oldgroaner]

Bloomberg ran this yesterday
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/while-u-k-dithers-over-brexit-finance-outflows-pick-up-speed?cmpid==socialflow-facebook-brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=brexit&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Money Is Flooding Out of London While the U.K. Bickers Over Brexit
The U.K. parliament can’t agree on how to leave the European Union, but many finance firms have already decided how much money to move out of the City of London -- a shift that’s seen by some as irreversible.
The big banks were among the first to plan to move assets out of London, with Frankfurt standing to benefit handsomely. Five of the largest banks looking to serve continental European customers now intend to move 750 billion euros ($855 billion) of balance-sheet assets to Frankfurt, according to people familiar with the matter.
Deutsche Bank AG is taking the lead by repatriating at least 400 billion euros, the people said, asking not to be identified divulging the company’s plans

JPMorgan Chase & Co. will move 200 billion euros to the host city of the European Central Bank over the next year or two, twice as much as previously thought.

How true is all this?
And Reuters ran this too!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/wh-smith-boosts-reserves-of-stationery-as-brexit-deadline-looms
The U.K. Is Worried About Running Out of Paper and Pens

Someone somewhere, really wants to panic Mp's into signing up to Mrs Mays deal, and as I forecast, the amount of doom and gloom (real or otherwise) looks very much like a campaign to make that happen, relying on them fearing a Corbyn government or Referendum in preference to that

 

[Fingers]

Since You are on topic, I'm tempted to ask why the EU would want a hard Brexit when the May deal gives them what they want?

That's the point. Maysdeal/Barniersdeal is massively weighted towards the EU. Ridiculously so.

No government in their right mind would sign it. So it must mean the EU is happy for a wto deal.

 

[Fingers]

it's the opposite, the government bond buying program injects liquidity into the economy, resulting in lower interest than otherwise.
It's when liquidity is in short supply that cash becomes expensive and lending rate goes up.

BTW, the Euro is now a more popular reserve currency than GBP. It's not going away anytime soon.
There is call for fiscal union to help weaker economies in the Eurozone but by and large, the Euro is more stable than the Pound.

But the 1.3 trillion of printing Euros was only stopped in November and thats before the next round of bail outs.

 

[Woosh]

But the 1.3 trillion of printing Euros was only stopped in November and thats before the next round of bail outs.

that's nothing wrong. Central banks always have big balance sheets.
Printing money to improve liquidity is the role of central banks. They all do that.
You have to look into the exchange rates and balance of payments to figure out which way the economy is heading.
Hard brexit will cause a flight of assets out of the UK. Trust me, if Airbus moves out, TM's government will fall.

 

[Fingers]

that's nothing wrong. Central banks always have big balance sheets.
Printing money to improve liquidity is the role of central banks. They all do that.
You have to look into the exchange rates and balance of payments to figure out which way the economy is heading.
Hard brexit will cause a flight of assets out of the UK. Trust me, if Airbus moves out, TM's government will fall.

Well hopefully tm's government does fall.

Thats the only scenario I can see for continuing a50.

This state of flux is very damaging though.

 

[oldgroaner]

irony is unfortunately not something one shroud try to explain. if i said anything along the lines of "were on a thread discussing 'not leaving' or 'leaving' the eu; and trapped on an insignificant little island where the act of 'leaving' or 'not leaving' our biggst and best neighbour has somehow completely occupied our consciousness. and that drones stopping us from leaving represent a comical analogy for this spurious dilemma, my old English teacher would give me one mark. but i fear i have completely ruined it for anyone who enjoys it as a metaphor. i think i detect a theme here, but feel free to say if its of the mark: it is unfortunate that you and tom had an altercation in which he called you an idiot. that, however, is an entirely different matter from the likes of 50herz deliberately being obtuse and pretending not to understand as part of a well rehearsed little trolling exercise.

With respect you missed out "group therapy session"

 

[Nev]

The only puzzling point,is why the CEO of Airbus waited until now for a public statement.

I was wondering the same thing, I really think he and other CEOs should have been more outspoken during the referendum campaign. The Brexit spokespeople got away with absolute rubbish when talking about business, it should have been made very clear to people that Brexit means making the UK a lot poorer than staying in the EU. Then if leavers still wanted to leave and make the Country poorer then fair enough.

 

[oldgroaner]

The DUP knows that TM is not going to last long. Their interest is actually UK to cancel A50.

Woosh, this has me puzzled, didn't you mean the EU, not the DUP? or am I missing some remainer intention on their part?

 

[Danidl]

Everybody in the 27? Everybody??

The Polish minister has already broken cover and stated publicly there needs to be legal change to the Backstop to get this Deal through. Now hot on the heels of that we have this from the Lithuanian President !!


Lithuanian President: No Deal better than delaying Brexit

The President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, has insisted that the UK should exit the European Union as quickly as possible and that No Deal would be preferably to a an extension of Article 50 and further delay.

She told Euronews: “The more we will extend any kind of uncertainty the worse it will be for both sides.

“In that case it’s better to finish this sooner even with No Deal, or with any kind of deal, because I know even in worst case scenario we will start immediately to negotiate with UK on special measures, it will take a few months.”

NEW: Cracks in EU on what next for #Brexit
Lithuanian President suggests NO DEAL would be better than the uncertainty of extending Article 50 for a prolonged period of time.
With NO DEAL – EU would immediately start negotiating special measures which might only take few months. pic.twitter.com/iSkoCq3ZCz
— Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) January 24, 2019​

Remainers in Westminster won’t like this. An extension of Article 50 would require the unanimous approval of all EU countries…

The Lithuanian President response is exactly in accordance with the rest of EU27, in respect to what has been AGREED. ..now if the UK wants A50 extended, and it must be unanimous.. that is not looking good.
The Polish Minister's comment needs to be seen for what is . An academic point from an Academic . He was speculating not proposing.
So rather than giving the impression of chaos,as youmay have hoped,Tommie..it is the reverse.
The choices are becoming starker by the day. ...
An Article 50 delay maybe off the table.(I don't know who represents Lithuania at tge European Council,as to whether president or Prime Minister)
The Deal is still on ,as far as EU is concerned.
A Crash out is increasingly probable.
Article 50 rescind by UK is possible.
A reality check by UK Parliament and a positive vote for the Deal is possible.
But as I said perhaps a week ago, its all in the UKs court now

 

[oldgroaner]

On the Airbus press release:

"Asked if the Government put Airbus up to comments this morning she first says no, but then adds Airbus has provided ministers with "lots of information about the potential impacts" and then follows up by admitting Gov DID ask the company to "make clear" cost of no deal Brexit."

In other words - the government put them up to it.

That make sense!

 

[Danidl]

deemed offensive? that's your interpretation.
our side still does not know what we want but finding closer union expensive? yes but offensive? no.
The main obstacle is we want a seat at the table when you talk trade and security.

At an early stage Mrs May identified a collection of RED line issues. By definition these would be offensive,if crossed. The EU claims to have met these, and Mrs May concurs . The EU would have wanted closer alignment, the UK delegation objected because the cost of these,in terms of their red line issues would be to much.

 

[gray198]

What a terrifying prospect.

probably why Dyson has decided to move, What business in their right mind would want to be here with that clown in charge

 

[gray198]

I don't know what sort of list that is, but it's not part of this site's software so doesn't hide the posts of those on it. And there's no function for adding anyone else to the ignore list

The Ignore function of the previous site software hid all the posts of those on the list.
.

my ignores have carried on from previous site

 

[flecc]

my ignores have carried on from previous site

So it seems. Some previous posts gave the impression that the ignore functions had gone, and since I don't use them I believed that.

It's only the Ignore Thread that we used to have that's missing.
.

 

[Woosh]

Woosh, this has me puzzled, didn't you mean the EU, not the DUP? or am I missing some remainer intention on their part?

put yourself in place of Mr Nigel Dodds.
What can he do? if he sides with TM, he's possibly putting NI in the backstop.
If he sides with JRM, he'll certainly put a border between the two parts of Ireland.
If he sides with neither, he'll get Corbyn.
His best move is to revert brexit but he can't do that alone.
The least damaging brexit for Mr Dodds is one that has a border with the ROI, most of NI trade is with the UK.

 

[oldgroaner]

There's more:

"The European Union have been caught out on the hated EU backstop trap. Oh dear.

Things have began to unravel, with the EU’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier letting the cat out of the bag. He said that when it comes to the Irish border if there’s a No Deal: “We will have to find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting in place a border.”

The Irish government have made clear themselves that: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one.”

In comments elsewhere Barnier also said: “My team have worked hard to study how controls can be made paperless or decentralised.”

The Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent has since followed up these comments and put them directly to the European Commission’s Chief Spokesman Margaritis Schinas.

James Crisp first asked: “If all of this is possible, why do we need the backstop?”

He then followed up: “If there are ways to avoid a hard border in a No Deal scenario which Mr. Barnier suggested, why do we need the backstop?”

The response from the EU Commission? “You can write whatever you like.” Pathetic."

Come off it.

 

[tommie]

C`mon Dan get it signed!!. Over 100k and counting, so will be debated

Petition
Brexit re article 50 it must not be suspended/stopped under any circumstances

the full details are well known to everyone the media has covered it fully

More details Sign this petition

101,622 signatures

 

[oldgroaner]

probably why Dyson has decided to move, What business in their right mind would want to be here with that clown in charge

Of course the fact that the new FTA between Singapore give him the same advantages he had here on EU access before Brexit wasn't a factor.
Do you really believe the nonsense you post? his reasoning has nothing to do with Corbyn, who is unlikely to get elected anyway.

 

[tommie]

put yourself in place of Mr Nigel Dodds.
What can he do? if he sides with TM, he's possibly putting NI in the backstop.
If he sides with JRM, he'll certainly put a border between the two parts of Ireland.
If he sides with neither, he'll get Corbyn.
His best move is to revert brexit but he can't do this alone.
The least damaging brexit for Mr Dodds is one that has a border with the ROI, most of NI trade is with the UK.

In can assure you Mr. Dodds is sitting relaxed with his feet up, quietly watching as the clock runs down - Tic-toc, tic-toc