Brexit, for once some facts.

[anotherkiwi]

I thought we were told that our negotiating position was strong because they need us more than we need them.

Reality check time: You are negotiating your way out of a strong position you once held (before Thatcher). The EU needs you but not for your money.

 

[Danidl]

Why are we calling the UK-EU deal a negotiation...we are told that May is offering £50billion for the divorce and that is looked upon as a triumph by the UK!
It won't be long before we agree to build a hard border between the south and north Ireland,nobody except the EU wants that.
God knows what we are going to get out of the trade talks,maybe German cars will be allowed tariff free into the UK.
I thought we were told that our negotiating position was strong because they need us more than we need them.
We are going to end up poor and a third rate country at the end of this,I hope the Brexiteers are happy with the way things are going.
KudosDave

Nobody and I mean nobody, not us, not the NI, not the UK, not the EU , wants a border on the island of Ireland, in the sea between Ireland and england, or between Dover and Calais.. but it could happen.
Yes you were told that the UKs position was so strong, that the EU was prepared to sacrifice all its principles, to keep you sweet. .. but remind us again who told you that?
The best conclusion would be to recognise that bluster has its place, and its not in international negotiations.

 

[oldgroaner]

Fro the Torygraph this mornng
"
AnalysisTheresa May risks the wrath of Brexiteers to calm the fears of British businesses

And of course someone can't get their facts right
"
This £40bn government sellout to the EU will unite the British people in disgust
Nigel Farage

The Express denies everything
"
No divorce bill' May gets tough on EU and REJECTS €55billion demand
THERESA May is set to get tough with the EU next week and reject their demands for her to commit to a final divorce bill figure and lump sum payment.

The Daily Mail has this to add

Nothing at all!

The Sun Manages to ignore it altogether!

The Guardian
"The bill could total £53bn to £58bn (€60bn to €65bn), although EU officials are not discussing numbers and the British government will fight hard to bring the total down. While EU sources have spoken in recent months of £53bn to £58bn, both sides are trying to avoid talking numbers to help the British government deal with the potentially toxic political fallout.

And the Independent says this
"
Brexit: Britain set to agree divorce bill with EU that could cost up to £45bn
Two sides aligning over methodology


I wonder what they really agreed to as a figure?

And what the Murdoch Press reaction will be once he tells them what to print?

 

[Woosh]

I wonder what they really agreed to as a figure?

No, but the threat of cancelling the rebate that MT negotiated was enough to bring the UK side to concede on the principle of joint unlimited liabilities.
We'll pay the bills as they come in. Meanwhile, TM gets to keep the likely tally secret and us in the dark about where we are going.

 

[oldgroaner]

No, but the threat of cancelling the rebate that MT negotiated was enough to bring the UK side to concede on the principle of joint unlimited liabilities.
We'll pay the bills as they come in. Meanwhile, TM gets to keep the likely tally secret and us in the dark about where we are going.

To judge by the lack of press reaction in certain quarters we aren't the only ones in the dark!
Murdoch must be wondering what sort of Spin he wants to use to sell this situation.
It looks like he sent out a "Hold the Front page!" order till he figures that out.

One of the Tory Politicians is reported to have said "The EU had better give us a Rolls Royce Trade Deal, or there'll be trouble."
Oh Dear!

 

[Woosh]

Murdoch must be wondering what sort of Spin he wants to use to sell this situation.

you have already given us the clue:

"The EU had better give us a Rolls Royce Trade Deal, or there'll be trouble."

that's exactly that. All the hard brexiters can come up with is more threats to throw up public tantrums.

 

[oldtom]

We are going to end up poor and a third rate country at the end of this,I hope the Brexiteers are happy with the way things are going.

It was always inevitable that the UK government would realise that, eventually, a large sum of money the country can ill-afford would need to be paid to the EU to discharge ourselves of the liabilities and responsibilities agreed upon during our tenure of the EU.

Apart from that, there is a problem in that a large chunk of those who think 'Brexit' is a good idea never experienced (or have conveniently forgotten) what life in the UK was like before we managed to beg, yes beg! our way into the club in 1973. Neither does that group understand that the UK cannot sustain itself economically after secession, imagining that we will magically trade with whoever, whenever it suits us without any ongoing cost. The notion that we'll manage ok has been supported by resort to a magic money tree. That tree will not bear fruit again for a very long time.

I foresee a long, painful learning curve ahead.

Even if the EU is persuaded to accept the updated offer from the UK as full and final settlement of our liabilities, the position of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa has not yet been resolved satisfactorily and then there is the border with Ireland to be considered.......I can't wait to hear how the tory government is going to successfully remedy those little matters....and please the 'hard Brexit' brigade.

Tom

 

[Woosh]

Even if the EU is persuaded to accept the updated offer from the UK as full and final settlement of our liabilities,

there can't be a full and final settlement, because a lot of agreed projects were put on hold and liabilities on staff pension that would last may be for 70-80 years.
All this agreement does is to prove that:

a) the real cost of membership is substantially higher than the net contribution
b) the economic cost is so far pretty substantial with 3% inflation for 3 years
c) the near term economic cost is even higher than the net contribution

 

[oldgroaner]

there can't be a full and final settlement, because a lot of agreed projects were put on hold and liabilities on staff pension that would last may be for 70-80 years.
All this agreement does is to prove that:

a) the real cost of membership is substantially higher than the net contribution
b) the economic cost is so far pretty substantial with 3% inflation for 3 years
c) the near term economic cost is even higher than the net contribution

Which can be summed up with the technical description of Brexit.....C.D.I.

Catastrophically Dumb Idea.

 

[anotherkiwi]

The number of British people applying for French citizenship has surged by 264 per cent in a year...

 

[oldgroaner]

The Engagment of Harry and his American Fiancee is surely not worthy of displacing unpopular news, but times are getting desperate for the Murdoch Rags till they figure out their next pack of lies to ply the dimmer members of the Public with.
Mrs May must have been delighted that the engagement was announced by some "magical" coincidence in time to cover the real news, and blunt the backlash.
Not very likely if you ask me!

 

[oldgroaner]

Our resident right wingers seem to have become lost for words.

 

[Zlatan]

If EU really wanted us in EU for any other reasons apart from financial ones they would want a small payment. There view would be go away and try independence for a few years a see where you get, waiting for us to come back having " learnt" our lesson a la OG style.. With a £50 kkk exit fee would we go back having wasted all that money ? ( or will it be refundable on our return to the fold? Doubtful..
The larger the settlement the less likely we are ever to return ? ( It cant be viewed as a divorce bill, in that monies pass from the richer to the poorer, its going other way in this case)
OG , no the centralists ( not right wingers) are sick of being patronised and insulted. There is no point expressing anything other than the accepted opinion on here. ( Ask Tilson, Peterl,Etc etc etc)
And by the way nice to hear Henkel talking sense over past few weeks.

 

[anotherkiwi]

If EU really wanted us in EU for any other reasons apart from financial ones they would want a small payment. There view would be go away and try independence for a few years a see where you get, waiting for us to come back having " learnt" our lesson a la OG style.. With a £50 kkk exit fee would we go back having wasted all that money ? ( or will it be refundable on our return to the fold? Doubtful..
The larger the settlement the less likely we are ever to return ? ( It cant be viewed as a divorce bill, in that monies pass from the richer to the poorer, its going other way in this case)

You are paying for what you signed up for. How many times do you need to read that before you understand?

 

[Danidl]

So what have we now...
1. The irish crisis and potential collapse of government has been averted. The SF plan for a general election thwarted
2. The Germans are working towards a viable government
3. The Catalan elections will take place in December with a probable majority of pro union members. With enhanced tax rights for that parliament

Maybe democratic politics works...

 

[Woosh]

With a £50 kkk exit fee would we go back having wasted all that money ?

we are more likely to go Swiss or Norwegian than returning to the EU club after the transition period.
in any case, it's not wasted money. That bill would have eventually grown with the length of time we stay in the club.
As far as I can make out, TM only wants to negotiate the transition so she can present herself as the leader of the conservative party at the next GE.

 

[Danidl]

You are paying for what you signed up for. How many times do you need to read that before you understand?

There is a simple way of avoiding paying that sum. It may go against the grain but being honest with the British people and publishing the impact reports might help. Then when the actual expected effects are known there would be a groundswell of revulsion against those who lied and blistered (you know who you are )

 

[oldtom]

Yesterday, I couldn't believe how great a priority the forthcoming royal wedding merited in the propaganda sheets posing as newspapers, overshadowing all other news.

I don't know about anyone else but I came across this tweet which coincides precisely with my opinion:



Tom

 

[oldtom]

This news from an EU state has just broken:

world-europe-42163613

Will it be Tony B-liar's turn to stand in the dock once these Bosnians are out of the way?

Tom

 

[Zlatan]

You are paying for what you signed up for. How many times do you need to read that before you understand?

If that were thought case by both sides trade negotiations would have run concurrently..just read my post and think before posting next time. What you and understand is irrelevant..