Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

what is clear is that the government doesn't want to pay for membership of the EU from the date article 50 was invoked, they just want a free ride till we leave.
Good luck with that!

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

that is naive. Trade is integral to international relations.
Refusing to talk will inevitably prolong uncertainty - until EU investors start to protest against their own governments, then the EU will have to climb down.

naive? Strange.... because its what the actual EU trade commissioner said, not me.

The EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight the UK cannot begin negotiating trade deals with the EU until after it has left.

In an interview with the BBC's Mark Urban, she said: "There are actually two negotiations. First you exit and then you negotiate the new relationship, whatever that is".

 

[Woosh]

what is clear is that the government doesn't want to pay for membership of the EU from the date article 50 was invoked, they just want a free ride till we leave.

I don't think that's the case. We are legally obliged to pay membership fee until March 2019.
However, there are a lot of long term programs that will run until 2020, 2022 and even beyond for which the EU reckon we are committed to funding, so they want us to agree to all of them. They also want us to pay all their costs relating to brexit (eg salary of their team), including provision for pension. BTW, they want our share of EU staff pension to be paid upfront.
The higher the bill, the more ammunition the EU hands over to the hard brexiters.

 

[Woosh]

naive? Strange.... because its what the actual EU trade commissioner said, not me.

The EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight the UK cannot begin negotiating trade deals with the EU until after it has left.

In an interview with the BBC's Mark Urban, she said: "There are actually two negotiations. First you exit and then you negotiate the new relationship, whatever that is".

that's why our position is clear: the EU team's hands are tied by their agreed agenda.
Let's just wait for the EU27 member countries that have close economic ties with the UK start to get jitters.
Our strategy is fairly clear: agree on the legal basis for the bill. Then all the 3 major topics should proceed in parallel.
That is pretty logical, citizens' rights and Irish border are linked to the future trading relationship. If there is no free movement of people and workers, no free movement of goods, then a hard border between NI and ROI seems inevitable.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

that's why our position is clear: the EU team's hands are tied by their agreed agenda.
Let's just wait for the EU27 member countries that have close economic ties with the UK start to get jitters.
Our strategy is fairly clear: agree on the legal basis for the bill. Then all the 3 major topics should proceed in parallel.
That is pretty logical, citizens' rights and Irish border are linked to the future trading relationship. If there is no free movement of people and workers, no free movement of goods, then a hard border between NI and ROI seems inevitable.

jitters about what? KTM is a classic example... doing good business in the UK now. Brexit is not going to effect that, the prices will just be more. But what alternative is there for UK customers wanting premium mid motor eBikes.. buy UK? I think not. So our business won't decline, our customers will just pay more.

 

[flecc]

Surely, this is nonsense. To take the marriage example it would be illogical to discuss the financial settlement without having resolved access to the kids first. Same here surely.

But the EU is doing that insisting on the status of citizens in other countries be dealt with before discussing trade. That's the equivalent human issue.
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[KTM Bike Industries UK]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews

 

[flecc]

On this, our position is to pay what is owed, there isn't any quibble with this principle, but the EU seems to want to load on the bill extraneous items that we have not signed up to. No treaty we signed extends our liabilities beyond the point we leave.
I approve of our government approach in seeking clarification from the EU on legal basis for their demands. As I said before, the multi year accounting period can be resolved on the common sense approach rather than legal.

But none of this justifies moving to discussing a trade deal before this issue is settled.
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[flecc]

Let's just wait for the EU27 member countries that have close economic ties with the UK start to get jitters.

That is actually funny! We're the ones losing access to 27, each of them only losing access to just one.

Since the most affected, Germany, has already said they can absorb the total loss of our business and have proved they could in the 2008 recession, I can't see the EU countries being in the slightest worried.

When are Leavers going to recognise that we are not dealing with a single unit, the EU. We are dealing with 27 countries through their appointed EU negotiator. That's a very important difference.
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[KTM Bike Industries UK]

 

[Kudoscycles]

I think we all realised that the EU would ask for some exhorbitant sum and we would offer peanuts. When Barnier/Juncker described progress as difficult and slow and David described the EU as being not being constructive,it was obviously about the money.
I have taken a different attitude of late....we should pay them as little as we can legally get away with and if they want an Irish border,let the EU pay for it.
Why have I a different attitude...I suspect the EU is desperately short of money,there were only 2 countries largely contributing,us and Germany....if they lose us without a hefty divorce payment they could be in real financial problems.
So if we crash out with no payment and the Irish border becomes their problem,they may take the attitude to keep us in,better to have £11billion per year than nothing...they may then start to give us a good deal to stay in.
In contrast if we give them loads of money it may be enough to save the EU and they will be pleased to see the back of us.
If they are keen for us to stay we may even leverage a few other things out of them,just depends on how desperate they are for the money.
The more we appear happy to crash out the more they are likely to do a deal to keep us in. Is Davis and May clever enough to play such a game,they must be aware of the state of the EU finances.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

That is actually funny! We're the ones losing access to 27, each of them only losing access to just one.

Since the most affected, Germany, has already said they can absorb the total loss of our business and have proved they could in the 2008 recession, I can't see the EU countries being in the slightest worried.

When are Leavers going to recognise that we are not dealing with a single unit, the EU. We are dealing with 27 countries through their appointed EU negotiator. That's a very important difference.
.

In this I disagree....we are dealing with a single unit,Germany,the rest have no choice but to tag along.
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

In this I disagree....we are dealing with a single unit,Germany,the rest have no choice but to tag along.
KudosDave

Either way the same outcome, since Germany can just walk away from our business if necessary.

I still think the UK negotiating stance is to deliberately create difficulty at present in order to appear tough with the EU.

Then trying to present a relatively soft Brexit to our electorate as a hard won good agreement.
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[Kudoscycles]

Have just read through the Barnier/Davis press conference....it looks like Barnier is starting to lose his cool,I sort of get the impression that Davis doesnt care. As Davis has said when the EU says we are being unreasonable and not stating our position,what they really mean is we are not willing to give them the money they are demanding.....I think we are talking £5billion or less,they are talking £90 billion or more.
Hammond once said that no deal would be a disaster,but how much of a disaster would it be? More of a disaster than the EU going bust?
I have been involved in legal fights in the past,there are times when it pays to act thick,it is very frustrating for the opposite party and they often run out of money and energy before a conclusion is reached.
Simple answer is still to Remain.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

Either way the same outcome, since Germany can just walk away from our business if necessary.

I still think the UK negotiating stance is to deliberately create difficulty at present in order to appear tough with the EU.

Then trying to present a relatively soft Brexit to our electorate as a hard won good agreement.
.

Or no Brexit with some goodies out of the EU.....
There is no way anyone in the UK,Remainer or Leaver,is going to give them more than £10 billion and that is going to be difficult to sell to the Brexiters and the EU cant take such a small sum because it would be hurt badly financially. I just dont see anyway forward,end of negotiations.
The money is not a grey area,it is really not easy to flavour it up to sell it to the electorate.
Second referendum????????
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

There is no way anyone in the UK,Remainer or Leaver,is going to give them more than £10 billion

How about we pay them the 90 billions and in return they pay us the red bus 350 millions a week for the NHS for five years.
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[oldtom]

It no longer matters to me how simple or how difficult the secession from the EU becomes over the remaining negotiation period and beyond. The UK's future is doomed unless a socialist government is elected soon.

I expect that by the time the post-'Brexit' financial pain finally becomes seriously injurious to sufficient UK subjects, the current (mal)administration will have stripped the carcass of our NHS system, removed every law protecting workers rights and basic human rights, consigning millions more to rely on charity and food banks.

It could even get much worse if the new breed of nazi-tory manage to acquire power in the way of the current, inbred elite, as this blogger points out:

the-mainstream-whitewash-of-nazi-tory.html

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

Either way the same outcome, since Germany can just walk away from our business if necessary.

I still think the UK negotiating stance is to deliberately create difficulty at present in order to appear tough with the EU.

Then trying to present a relatively soft Brexit to our electorate as a hard won good agreement.
.

It is so Bloody obvious it even occurred to me!

There's nothing more predictable than a Tory trying to pull a fast one, they are obviously bluffing the UK public, and failing to do so with the EU

It's simply embarassing watching these amateurs at work, making the nation look fools in front of the World.

 

[Woosh]

I think Davis is doing the right thing to establish the legal basis for the bill.
We can't just blindly accept the bill without due dilligence.
I would have thought the EU is better prepared for this.

 

[Woosh]

jitters about what? KTM is a classic example... doing good business in the UK now. Brexit is not going to effect that, the prices will just be more. But what alternative is there for UK customers wanting premium mid motor eBikes.. buy UK? I think not. So our business won't decline, our customers will just pay more.

you did all the explaining for me. Customers want to buy KTM bikes, they just have to pay a higher price. Same thing happens over in EU27 land.
Over time, the landscape will change, KTM customers may find Wisper Shimano equipped bikes better value for money. KTM may lose sales to Chinese made Steps E8000 bikes.