Brexit, for once some facts.

[Kudoscycles]

you've done an excellent job to justify why brexit.

Yes,but will the EU let us do this and I have detailed advantages of a crash out for the UK government not the people nor the country.
I don't like the way the EU is suggesting that we are not being serious about the negotiations,I suspect that they don't like the fact that we won't be told what to do. When these negotiations started I have said that the EU are offering a 'take it or leave it attitude' ,I am thinking that we should be prepared to leave it and Davis is probably saying that.....the EU won't like it if we leave without giving them money and especially won't like a 300 mile gash in their tariff wall. I dislike the whole Brexit idea but if we are to leave I don't want to be pushed around.
I suspect that both the UK and EU will be hurt by a crash out but who will suffer worst I am not sure,maybe we need to go past March 2019 before we know.
To be honest and I don't much care which way Brexit finishes,I can see a different business trading model with the EU whatever is the outcome.
But Brexit success does rely on the EU continuing to buy our goods whatever the tariffs due on our exports,will they continue to do so if we crash out?
Ironically the people who are going to suffer,post Brexit,and whatever way it goes,will be the poor in our country,poor man from Huddersfield will not get what he voted for,wealthy guy from Esher will be ok whatever happens.
Just don't know how poor man from Huddersfield is going to react if he doesn't get what the Leaver lobby promised him.....TM the prime minister for everyone....yeh!!!!
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

To be honest and I don't much care which way Brexit finishes,I can see a different business trading model with the EU whatever is the outcome.
But Brexit success does rely on the EU continuing to buy our goods whatever the tariffs due on our exports,will they continue to do so if we crash out?

yes.
you will have to carry on business as usual unless you can find alternative sources with less tariff and paperwork.

 

[Woosh]

the refusal of talking about future trading relationship at the moment is illogical. It makes the EU unnecessarily easy to criticise.

 

[oldgroaner]

Yes,but will the EU let us do this and I have detailed advantages of a crash out for the UK government not the people nor the country.
I don't like the way the EU is suggesting that we are not being serious about the negotiations,I suspect that they don't like the fact that we won't be told what to do. When these negotiations started I have said that the EU are offering a 'take it or leave it attitude' ,I am thinking that we should be prepared to leave it and Davis is probably saying that.....the EU won't like it if we leave without giving them money and especially won't like a 300 mile gash in their tariff wall. I dislike the whole Brexit idea but if we are to leave I don't want to be pushed around.
I suspect that both the UK and EU will be hurt by a crash out but who will suffer worst I am not sure,maybe we need to go past March 2019 before we know.
To be honest and I don't much care which way Brexit finishes,I can see a different business trading model with the EU whatever is the outcome.
But Brexit success does rely on the EU continuing to buy our goods whatever the tariffs due on our exports,will they continue to do so if we crash out?
Ironically the people who are going to suffer,post Brexit,and whatever way it goes,will be the poor in our country,poor man from Huddersfield will not get what he voted for,wealthy guy from Esher will be ok whatever happens.
Just don't know how poor man from Huddersfield is going to react if he doesn't get what the Leaver lobby promised him.....TM the prime minister for everyone....yeh!!!!
KudosDave

The truth is they are correct we are not being serious and it's not a case of Being pushed around.

The negotiaton situation was made crystal clear, with a set sequence to events and had been agreed by the other 27 nations, but the press have made a splendid job, as predicted of making public opinion swing behind the notion we are being "bullied" haven't they?
They even have some on here believing that, even though nothing has changed.

We knew what was going to happen, it has, and regardless of the fact that grabbing at straws is now popular and a mistaken notion that simply cutting a "good deal" money wise is the only way forward.

In no way does it alter the simple and inescapable main issues.
We don't have the means, will, technology or ability to organise ourselves to make this inflated dream come true, and meanwhile the political vultures gather to changes the laws to exploit the people and make their lives harder, poorer and less free, taking them back to the 1930's

If this is the sort of country you want, then you deserve all you get.
A rat race to the bottom, we are already way behind where we should have been and in every way things get worse daily for the masses.

 

[oldgroaner]

From the Daily Mail
"
Tear up divorce bill or Brexit talks will collapse, Davis warns EU: Britain rubbishes demand for £90bn - and calls on the European leaders to break deadlock

• UK negotiators rubbished the bloc’s financial demands and accused the EU of forcing Britain to 'pay for everything including the kitchen sink'
• So far Brussels chiefs have refused to discuss any future trade deal until Britain agrees how much it is willing to pay towards exit bill that could reach £90billion
• Theresa May appealed to EU leaders to start the stalling talks or face a backlash

With any luck the EU negotiators will say, very well, off you go then, and that will be that, refusing to do any trade deals.

But the truth is that the headlines are to keep the proles in line the real situation is revealed further down


While the UK has guaranteed it will pay some money as part of any deal, the EU is determined to extract tens of billions to plug the hole left by our departure.


As I posted recently Davis is following Baldrick's cunning plan
"I have a cunning plan Sir! said Baldrick
"Cant we pay them the money if they agree to say publicly they actually asked for a lot more but we made them agree?"

Amazing how the Tories will lie in such a fashion not to seem to be in a weak situation of their own making.

 

[oldgroaner]

Forbes put this into perspective
"
Tim Worstall , CONTRIBUTOR
It's Not A Brexit Divorce Bill, It's Actually The Cost Of Staying In The EU
One of the things currently annoying me--one of many, I'm lucky in that I can find so much to complain about--is the manner in which all are calling whatever severance payment there will be concerning Brexit a divorce bill. This isn't so, it's not that at all--this is simply the revelation of the cost to us of staying in the European Union. For what is it that Barnier and the EU are saying? You agreed to pay this therefore you must pay this before you leave. That is, whether the amount is 3 pence or €50 billion, this isn't the cost of leaving, we would pay exactly this amount if we stayed.

Thus I really don't like this way of putting it:

Divorce bill remains sticking point as Brexit negotiations resume

It's worth pondering what the actual demands are here:

We repeat, whatever the bill is isn't the cost of leaving, it's the cost of staying.

For that is in fact the justification being used to demand it. If you Brits had stayed then you would have paid this much into the EU budget. In fact, you've already agreed to pay this much into the EU budget. So, you should pay this much into the EU budget.

That is how it is all being justified, demanded even. If you stay you will pay this. Thus this amount is the cost of staying, not leaving. The leaving part is just making it more obvious that this would be the cost of staying.

That is the justification for asking for anything on the part of the EU, isn't it? Which leads to a further point, which is that we should be treating this as a sunk cost. If we stay, we've agreed to pay this much into the EU budget. If we go we've got to pay this much into the EU budget. Therefore having to make the payment has no relevance at all to the decision to stay or leave."

So much for the "Divorce Bill"

And this man is a Brexit Fan! he believes n the nonsense from Patrick Minford.

 

[Woosh]

the UK side is right to ask for legal justification or clarification of each item that the EU wants paying.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

the UK side is right to ask for legal justification or clarification of each item that the EU wants paying.

Why? We want to leave... what we're trying to negotiate is access to some of the perks we had as members.

Its like my wife wanting to leave me, but then asking for some of the benefits. I can demand whatever I like at this point, as I whole all the cards surely? What else is she going to do? Leave more??

 

[Woosh]

Why? We want to leave... what we're trying to negotiate is access to some of the perks we had as members.

free trade isn't perks.
it will happen naturally, through the paths of least resistance or of most efficiency. Both sides have nothing to gain to artificially block a free trade deal.

I can demand whatever I like at this point, as I whole all the cards surely? What else is she going to do? Leave more??

remainers like to see the situation that way. I don't.
The EU, or more precisely those countries who have close ties to the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Lithuania, will lose as much as the UK does through reduced access.

 

[oldgroaner]

free trade isn't perks.
it will happen naturally, through the paths of least resistance or of most efficiency. Both sides have nothing to gain to artificially block a free trade deal.


remainers like to see the situation that way. I don't.
The EU, or more precisely those countries who have close ties to the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Lithuania, will lose as much as the UK does through reduced access.

The difference is they can afford to we can't

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

free trade isn't perks.
it will happen naturally, through the paths of least resistance or of most efficiency. Both sides have nothing to gain to artificially block a free trade deal.


remainers like to see the situation that way. I don't.
The EU, or more precisely those countries who have close ties to the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Lithuania, will lose as much as the UK does through reduced access.

The won't have reduced access though will they? They'll still have the same access, it'll just be by WTO, so the only people who'll suffer is UK customers who'll pay more because of the tariff.

Don't forget I run a company that imports from EU, so I have done a lot of work on this. The EU brands won't suffer, access won't be limited, we're not going to stop buying the products we need / want, just because they are a bit more expensive.

 

[flecc]

the refusal of talking about future trading relationship at the moment is illogical. It makes the EU unnecessarily easy to criticise.

I don't agree, the UK is trying to have a situation where they can juggle the completely unrelated issue of settlements against trade access. That is what is illogical, it's tantamount to wanting a blackmail option and the EU are right to dismiss that disingenuous approach.

The settlement issue is fundamental to leaving since we have contractual obligations, a trade agreement isn't, we can leave with or without one. Also a trade agreement cannot be made without first settling the troubling status of the Irish border. Human rights obligations for the citizens of each are also a fundamental if we are to trade harmoniously

So logically deal with those fundamentals first, then with those established, deal with the trade agreement options.
.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

the refusal of talking about future trading relationship at the moment is illogical. It makes the EU unnecessarily easy to criticise.

Also, everyone has clearly said since day 1 one. We're currently negotiating leaving the EU. Once we've left, we can then sort out the new relationship / deal. We can't do that until we've left.

 

[PeterL]

Also, everyone has clearly said since day 1 one. We're currently negotiating leaving the EU. Once we've left, we can then sort out the new relationship / deal. We can't do that until we've left.

Surely, this is nonsense. To take the marriage example it would be illogical to discuss the financial settlement without having resolved access to the kids first. Same here surely.

 

[Woosh]

The won't have reduced access though will they? They'll still have the same access, it'll just be by WTO, so the only people who'll suffer is UK customers who'll pay more because of the tariff.

tariffs and barriers are usually reciprocal.
If we have less access to their market then they have less access to ours.
If the EU delays a free trade deal, then the USA, Canada, China, Mexico, South Korea and Japan will benefit.

 

[Woosh]

The settlement issue is fundamental to leaving since we have contractual obligations,

On this, our position is to pay what is owed, there isn't any quibble with this principle, but the EU seems to want to load on the bill extraneous items that we have not signed up to. No treaty we signed extends our liabilities beyond the point we leave.
I approve of our government approach in seeking clarification from the EU on legal basis for their demands. As I said before, the multi year accounting period can be resolved on the common sense approach rather than legal.

 

[PeterL]

On this, our position is to pay what is owed, there isn't any quibble with this principle, but the EU seems to want to load on the bill extraneous items that we have not signed up to. No treaty we signed extends our liabilities beyond the point we leave.
I approve our government approach in seeking clarification from the EU on legal basis for their demands. As I said before, the multi year accounting period can be resolved on the common sense approach rather than legal.

Totally agreed - certainly, from a UK perspective it has always been the case that we saw the EU as primarily a trading block and it therefore makes sense that when it comes to BREXIT the emphasis will be on trade and not much else truth be told. We obviously have some obligations to meet, if only to cover promises and agreements made previously. Hard to believe that these can’t be accurately quantified – the EU is awash with paperwork.

 

[Woosh]

Also, everyone has clearly said since day 1 one. We're currently negotiating leaving the EU. Once we've left, we can then sort out the new relationship / deal. We can't do that until we've left.

that is naive. Trade is integral to international relations.
Refusing to talk will inevitably prolong uncertainty - until EU investors start to protest against their own governments, then the EU will have to climb down.

 

[oldtom]

The columnist of The Irish Times who penned this today has grasped the problem May and her gluttonous party of inbreds face:

fintan-o-toole-parishes-of-fermanagh-and-tyrone-are-unravelling-brexit-1.3201011

Tom

 

[oldtom]

This set of figures from Robert Peston is interesting although I'm sure there are several alternative sets, depending on which mindbending news provider you choose from the tory propaganda wing:



Tom