Brexit, for once some facts.

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
  • Like
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon and flecc

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,379
16,876
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Don't ignore all the auxiliary services linked to these main players .. example the eu European medicines agency might directly only employ a few hundred, but the number of legal practices and lobbying groups and hotel beds even coffee shops , linked to its activities will have employment repercussions going into thousands
I think remainers overplay the economic card which explains why not many brexiters changed their mind. The economic outlook looks bad in the immediate future, but in time, brexit brings up some interesting change and opportunity. One of the strong economic arguments for brexit is the growing export trend to countries outside the EU. The UK could, conceivably, act as a bridge between the EU and smaller countries that have not concluded FTAs with the EU.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: oldtom

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
The UK is the EU's No 1 trading partner. I don't think it is in anybody's interest to start a trade war because of brexit. As usual, there will be winners and losers when an event as big as brexit happens. I am still hopeful that we will have our own FTA deal based on the FTA between the EU and EFTA at the end of the transitional period.
I am certain that the EU will not agree to a UK-EU Free trade deal as long as we have ambitions for a China-UK deal,we will have to choose one or other,our customs are already so bad at collecting tariffs (see £1.7 million EU fine) that I don't think the EU will trust us to collect the import tariffs post a free trade deal....this is causing problems on agreeing a soft border in Ireland,the EU think it laughable that we will collect the EU dues for them,we have history of incompetence doing this task.
It is said that because we don't get the money we can't be bothered to properly collect it....
KudosDave
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,379
16,876
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
I am certain that the EU will not agree to a UK-EU Free trade deal as long as we have ambitions for a China-UK deal,we will have to choose one or other,our customs are already so bad at collecting tariffs (see £1.7 million EU fine) that I don't think the EU will trust us to collect the import tariffs post a free trade deal..
an FTA with the EU will include rules of origin, we can't collect import duty on Chinese goods and sell on to EU customers like we do at the moment.
After we are out of the EU, if I sell a kit to a German customer, I have to do the invoice ex VAT in 6 copies, may have to supply certificate of origin (China form A?) over certain value, my customer may lose the duty that I've paid, making my price uncompetitive against German importers. It may affect your business a lot if you want to continue with your ebay shop.
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
Simon Williams,Bureau de Change airport worker has admitted that Brexiters get a less favourable rate when exchanging £ for Euro.
He felt it was right that Brexiters had caused the massive drop in the value of the pound so should be charged a bit more to overcome the loss of business.
The interviewer asked how do you recognise a Brexit voter.....that's easy.....,shaven head,vest,destination Benidorm,obviously a Brexit voter.
But what happens if they calculate the rate....no worry mate,if they couldn't work out that Brexit was a bad deal,then they wouldn't be able to calculate the exchange wasn't in their favour.
Cut and paste,UKIP press release.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
an FTA with the EU will include rules of origin, we can't collect import duty on Chinese goods and sell on to EU customers like we do at the moment.
After we are out of the EU, if I sell a kit to a German customer, I have to do the invoice ex VAT in 6 copies, may have to supply certificate of origin (China form A?) over certain value, my customer may lose the duty that I've paid, making my price uncompetitive against German importers. It may affect your business a lot if you want to continue with your ebay shop.
It is notoriously difficult to satisfy the rules of origin rules with the EU and trying to persuade the EU away from anti dumping duty is purposely made so difficult.
My e-bay shop is almost 100% sold to UK customers,It is very rare to export on e-bay.
With regard to EU customers buying off the UK,I can confidently predict that Dover and Belfast will become the smuggling capitals of the world.
KudosDave
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon and flecc
an FTA with the EU will include rules of origin, we can't collect import duty on Chinese goods and sell on to EU customers like we do at the moment.
After we are out of the EU, if I sell a kit to a German customer, I have to do the invoice ex VAT in 6 copies, may have to supply certificate of origin (China form A?) over certain value, my customer may lose the duty that I've paid, making my price uncompetitive against German importers. It may affect your business a lot if you want to continue with your ebay shop.
ah, so you can see how this will have a negative effect on our exports even if there is a continued drop in the £. Its going to cost more in admin, take longer in shipping and this will suddenly not make us competitive in our biggest market. The EU customers will just buy from their own EU suppliers.

Oh, and at the same time, it'll cost importers from the EU into the UK more too.

So our exporters will be worse of, and so will our importers. and this is a good idea... why?
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon and flecc

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,379
16,876
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
So our exporters will be worse of, and so will our importers. and this is a good idea... why?
they employ more people in the short term and so on.
local enterprises enjoy a bit less competition.
We discussed this when you quizzed me about losing to a Dutch retailer a few years back.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
I think remainers overplay the economic card which explains why not many brexiters changed their mind. The economic outlook looks bad in the immediate future, but in time, brexit brings up some interesting change and opportunity. One of the strong economic arguments for brexit is the growing export trend to countries outside the EU. The UK could, conceivably, act as a bridge between the EU and smaller countries that have not concluded FTAs with the EU.
Exporting what, exactly? we failed miserably at doing the before we gave up being a manufacturing nation and took to swindling with banking etc.,
Why should we be any better now when the competition are way ahead of us?
By the way there simply aren't any strong economic arguments, only wishful thinking, none of the so called "opportunites"are actually anything more than than wishful thinking.
No basis in reality at all.
 

anotherkiwi

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 26, 2015
7,845
5,786
The European Union
Exporting what, exactly?
BMX and DH bike rims. Can't find any decent ones on the continent. Just waiting for the pound to drop a bit more.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
I think remainers overplay the economic card which explains why not many brexiters changed their mind. The economic outlook looks bad in the immediate future, but in time, brexit brings up some interesting change and opportunity. One of the strong economic arguments for brexit is the growing export trend to countries outside the EU. The UK could, conceivably, act as a bridge between the EU and smaller countries that have not concluded FTAs with the EU.

You start off by saying, 'I think' and I believe you actually think too much. Your posts really ought to begin with 'Once upon a time' as your perception of reality and lack of understanding of what 'Remainers' want drifts further and further into a world of make-believe.

You are over-reliant on, often spurious, statistics created by various, usually less than disinterested, parties to vindicate your obsessive notion that an alternative trading- bloc is the way to avoid the UK's impending economic disaster.

Simone Elkeles, the young American author was wise enough to understand in writing 'Perfect Chemistry' that wishes are only granted in fairy tales. Eazy-E, the late American Rap artist had this to say about what young people want:

''The kids from the streets don't want preaching or messages. They want what they can identify with. They want to hear about the reality of their situation, not fairy tales. They don't care if it's ugly; they just want reality.

When William Shakespeare wrote this, he could easily have been describing Nigel Farage.....or any of the other fools on the far-right or those who believe liars and propaganda purveyors.

This life, which had been the tomb of his virtue and of his honour, is but a walking shadow; a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Why do I mention these people? Because, like you, they are all gifted in the recounting of fairy stories.

Germany gave us Jacob and Wilhelm Grimm; the Danes produced Hans Christian Andersen and France has provided the world with Charles Perrault and, of course, your good self.

You seem convinced that by voluntarily exiting the Premier League and applying to join the EFL Championship, the 'punters' will enjoy a better standard of product and attract the best quality worldwide....all at a discount price.

Sorry, mon ami, you need to need to get to grips with reality.

Tom
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
This pretence that there is an economic miracle that will after a period of suffering for the natives, offer them a Brighter and prosperous future can only be one of two things
  1. Improbably over optimistic vision on the part of the Politicians
  2. A cynical smokescreen to cover up the greatest systematically planned mugging of a population in human History.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,379
16,876
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
You are over-reliant on, often spurious, statistics created by various, usually less than disinterested, parties to vindicate your obsessive notion that an alternative trading- bloc is the way to avoid the UK's impending economic disaster.
You could have said that I spout the government's point of view because I cited mostly the government's published papers.
I rely mostly on articles published by the ONS (office for national statistics), the Treasury, the BoE and the BBC.
Your source seems to be the canary.
 
  • :D
Reactions: tommie

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
You could have said that I spout the government's point of view because I cited mostly the government's published papers.
I rely mostly on articles published by the ONS (office for national statistics), the Treasury, the BoE and the BBC.
Your source seems to be the canary.
Hard to know which tell which is the worst!:rolleyes:
Can you still get "Old Moore's Almanac"??
Begorah! now there's a novelty to be sure
Here ye are, so no excuses an' Fake news, if ye'll not be minding.
http://oldmooresalmanac.com/category/predictions/
 
Last edited:
  • Like
  • Agree
Reactions: oldtom and robdon

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
5,048
www.kudoscycles.com
So what is Labour up to now....it is said that many Labour voters voted Brexit because they thought it would bring attention to their poor social position,maybe Corbyn can argue that May's hard Brexit will be awful for jobs,so he can take a soft Brexit position and leave May for the right.
Corbyn can now get Labour to vote against the government with the possibility that much of the repeal bill is vulnerable to defeat.
Will leave May in a difficult position.
KudosDave
 
  • Agree
Reactions: robdon

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
So what is Labour up to now....it is said that many Labour voters voted Brexit because they thought it would bring attention to their poor social position,maybe Corbyn can argue that May's hard Brexit will be awful for jobs,so he can take a soft Brexit position and leave May for the right.
Corbyn can now get Labour to vote against the government with the possibility that much of the repeal bill is vulnerable to defeat.
Will leave May in a difficult position.
KudosDave
If he does he will simply damn himself in the long run as an opportunist, which to be honest he has already done by not taking a stand against Brexit.

All parties look like circling hyenas, playing party politics without a thought, like children determined to pick up a firework, that while still fizzing, hasn't yet gone off.

It's just a matter of which fool gets their hands burned first.

What labour seem intent on is a "Soft Brexit from Brexit" in other words exit from Brexit by stealth and degrees, staying in for so many years then hoping to convince the electorate to forget the idea.

I really can't see them pulling that off. The propaganda mechanisms of the media would have to be on side for that and they simply aren't likely to be.
 
Last edited:

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
32,613
80
Brexit= A revolving Door is clearly the stratagem that Labour hope will give the end result that I too hope will result, but I fear it is almost as much based on wishful thinking as Brexit itself is.

On the face of it it seems an a attractive idea of easing the blow of Brexit and gradually weaning the public back into an EU friendly frame of mind, but there are too many holes in the logic to make it viable.
  1. It relies too heavily on persuasion without mobilising the necessary propaganda mechanisms to promote it.
  2. It doesn't silence the Right wing supporters and their means of persuasion
  3. It doesn't really offer a strong means of persuasion to the public that they wouldn't still be better off outside the EU if things don't improve.
  4. There is no reason to expect improvement in the continuing interim uncertainty about the future.
To me it comes under the heading "If a thing looks too good to be true, it usually is"
There are better ways of "Soaring into the Future" that using this "Hot air Balloon"

And that is making the HUGE assumption that the EU would play ball.

It smacks of Baldric saying to Captain Blackadder "I have a cunning plan Sir!"
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: robdon

Advertisers