Brexit, for once some facts.

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
Might not the EU have a view about accepting a UK membership of EFTA?. Agreements are double sided, and the EU could ( I am not saying would or should) take a view that the size of the UK would so unbalance the EFTA, so that it's composition no longer fit for purpose.They could then suspend dealings with EFTA until the situation was regularised.
Something about counting chickens before their hatched as it were.

I think that is actually a very good point Dan. It wouldn't do if the main contributors to EU coffers saw the UK advantaged in some way by membership of EFTA as other states might just be a little put out by that and may also decide they'd like to jump ship.

As it happens, I don't see a great future for the peripheral trading blocks in any event. So long as they are of such limited size and influence that they don't impinge on the best interests of the 27, things will be fine. The moment they decide to up their game and thence become some kind of competitive threat to the EU states, I'm sure the rules of the game will change.

'The United States of Europe' makes so much sense in so many ways, not least for future generations that I cannot help but think that ultimately, it will be the only game in town for governments concerned about the best interests of their people.

It astonishes me that so many 'Brexidiots' can so easily ignore the gigantic step taken by the other sovereign nation states at the turn of the century when they consigned their own currencies to history and embraced a new single currency - that showed some real commitment. We could have done the same....and at a good rate but British arrogance meant such a move was unacceptable to we 'Britishers'.

That same arrogance and sheer, downright, unadulterated racism meant that, given the opportunity to circumvent the normal rules of democratic government by way of a non-binding referendum, it was no real surprise that, once primed by the fascist, rabblerousing liars, a marginal victory was achieved by the racists.

There is a painful lesson ahead for British people, both those in the UK and those who have settled elsewhere in Europe. When people eventually realise that it is a pain that just doesn't get better, in spite of the rhetoric from the billionaire class and their brainwashed supporters, some of whom pontificate frequently in these pages, only then will the message get home and people come to realise that the only rational way towards progress and the chance to become affluent, lies in EU membership.

The stark choice will be economic and political isolation or an application to rejoin and become a full member of the EU, including adopting the currency and espousing all the other rules applicable to members........just like OG has said so many times!

Tom
 
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Woosh

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Might not the EU have a view about accepting a UK membership of EFTA?. Agreements are double sided, and the EU could ( I am not saying would or should) take a view that the size of the UK would so unbalance the EFTA, so that it's composition no longer fit for purpose.They could then suspend dealings with EFTA until the situation was regularised.
Something about counting chickens before their hatched as it were.
it's a valid speculation if you buy in the idea that the EU seeks to punish us for leaving. If this is the case, the hard brexiters would be totally vindicated and no deal is indeed better than any deal leave alone a bad deal.
 
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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it's a valid speculation if you buy in the idea that the EU seeks to punish us for leaving. If this is the case, the hard brexiters would be totally vindicated and no deal is indeed better than any deal leave alone a bad deal.
From my point of view it would help to speed up the lesson and it's severity by a factor of Ten , if nothing else.
Highly commendable!
 
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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I think that is actually a very good point Dan. It wouldn't do if the main contributors to EU coffers saw the UK advantaged in some way by membership of EFTA as other states might just be a little put out by that and may also decide they'd like to jump ship.

As it happens, I don't see a great future for the peripheral trading blocks in any event. So long as they are of such limited size and influence that they don't impinge on the best interests of the 27, things will be fine. The moment they decide to up their game and thence become some kind of competitive threat to the EU states, I'm sure the rules of the game will change.

'The United States of Europe' makes so much sense in so many ways, not least for future generations that I cannot help but think that ultimately, it will be the only game in town for governments concerned about the best interests of their people.

It astonishes me that so many 'Brexidiots' can so easily ignore the gigantic step taken by the other sovereign nation states at the turn of the century when they consigned their own currencies to history and embraced a new single currency - that showed some real commitment. We could have done the same....and at a good rate but British arrogance meant such a move was unacceptable to we 'Britishers'.

That same arrogance and sheer, downright, unadulterated racism meant that, given the opportunity to circumvent the normal rules of democratic government by way of a non-binding referendum, it was no real surprise that, once primed by the fascist, rabblerousing liars, a marginal victory was achieved by the racists.

There is a painful lesson ahead for British people, both those in the UK and those who have settled elsewhere in Europe. When people eventually realise that it is a pain that just doesn't get better, in spite of the rhetoric from the billionaire class and their brainwashed supporters, some of whom pontificate frequently in these pages, only then will the message get home and people come to realise that the only rational way towards progress and the chance to become affluent, lies in EU membership.

The stark choice will be economic and political isolation or an application to rejoin and become a full member of the EU, including adopting the currency and espousing all the other rules applicable to members........just like OG has said so many times!

Tom
As if I would! :eek:
 
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Danidl

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it's a valid speculation if you buy in the idea that the EU seeks to punish us for leaving. If this is the case, the hard brexiters would be totally vindicated and no deal is indeed better than any deal leave alone a bad deal.
It's a valid speculation, without preconditions. One does not need to qualify it by assigning a punishment motive to it. The current countries within the EFTA, are pretty small economies, were the UK to join it would upset the current balance, and that would be sufficient reason for the EU to be cautious
 
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Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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the changes are important, if you buy something from German Ebay, you may have problems returning the goods, getting a refund and claiming back the VAT.
If you paid the vat in the first place...I don't know the percentage but e-bay is full of vat fraud,there are some big businesses on e-bay who don't charge vat,don't issue vat invoices and don't return the vat to our governments,but e-bay is to big for customs to do anything about them.
KudosDave
 
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Kudoscycles

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There is a meeting of the Brics (Brazil,Russia,India,China and South Africa) next month in Xiamen,China. They represent 25% of the worlds GDP and 40% of the worlds population. Some have very strong growth rates.
Would they want the UK to join? Would we want to join?
South Africa seems the oddball in that group.
We are breaking away from the EU group,the USA is probably the logical partner but will it be good for us?
With immigration into the UK now coming down,why are we leaving?
KudosDave
 
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Woosh

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It's a valid speculation, without preconditions. One does not need to qualify it by assigning a punishment motive to it. The current countries within the EFTA, are pretty small economies, were the UK to join it would upset the current balance, and that would be sufficient reason for the EU to be cautious
The UK is the EU's No 1 trading partner. I don't think it is in anybody's interest to start a trade war because of brexit. As usual, there will be winners and losers when an event as big as brexit happens. I am still hopeful that we will have our own FTA deal based on the FTA between the EU and EFTA at the end of the transitional period.
 

Steb

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The UK is the EU's No 1 trading partner. I don't think it is in anybody's interest to start a trade war because of brexit. As usual, there will be winners and losers when an event as big as brexit happens. I am still hopeful that we will have our own FTA deal based on the FTA between the EU and EFTA at the end of the transitional period.
No, the USA is, by far, the eu's largest trading partner. For some perspective(in this terrible time of fake news) the UK exports around 44% of its goods and services to the rest of the EU, whereas EU exports about 8% of its goods and services to UK according to ONS. Yes, brexit voters, as you secretly knew all along, you are but a pimple on the butt of an elephant.
 
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Woosh

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No, the USA is, by far, the eu's largest trading partner.
Wiki has the data for 2015.
you need to subtract UK/US trade from EU/US trade after brexit.
EU exported to USA 369 billion Euros, of which the UK export to usa accounts for about 100 billion Euros.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theuktradeandinvestmentrelationshipwiththeunitedstatesofamerica/2016

Compare the net figure of EU27 export to the USA (about £250 billions) against EU27 export to the UK (£291 billions), the UK is the most important trading partner of the EU27.

source ONS.
http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-trade-with-the-eu-and-beyond/
 

Woosh

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what remainers need to see that there are good points from their opposition too.
The EU trade with the rest of the world is far from nimble because of its democratic constitution.
If after brexit, UK can continue to trade freely with the EU like before, it will be a lot more attractive to investors.
So, if we have to pay 100 billion Euros for a FTA that gives us the same access as EFTA countries then it's chicken feed in the long run.
 

Steb

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Wiki has the data for 2015.
you need to subtract UK/US trade from EU/US trade after brexit.
EU exported to USA 369 billion Euros, of which the UK export to usa accounts for about 100 billion Euros.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theuktradeandinvestmentrelationshipwiththeunitedstatesofamerica/2016

Compare the net figure of EU27 export to the USA (about £250 billions) against EU27 export to the UK (£291 billions), the UK is the most important trading partner of the EU27.

source ONS.
http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-trade-with-the-eu-and-beyond/
What is it with you brexiters and fake news? Eu export to USA around twice to UK for that year, and declining since.
 
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Woosh

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Eu export to USA around twice to UK for that year, and declining since.
EU trade with the US is based mainly on 3 EU countries, UK, Germany and France, in that order. After brexit, the EU becomes EU27, minus UK.
The UK becomes then the EU No 1 trading partner, the EU27 sells more to the UK than to the US.
what may surprise you is the size of trade we do with the EU. We buy £290 billions from the EU27.
for clarity, the definition of trade here is based on balance of payments, to include goods, services and inward investments.
you should read the ONS article that I linked to, it has all the details and charts. I don't post fake news.
 
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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EU trade with the US is based mainly on 3 EU countries, UK, Germany and France, in that order. After brexit, the EU becomes EU27, minus UK.
The UK becomes then the EU No 1 trading partner, the EU27 sells more to the UK than to the US.
what may surprise you is the size of trade we do with the EU. We buy £290 billions from the EU27.
for clarity, the definition of trade here is based on balance of payments, to include goods, services and inward investments.
you should read the ONS article that I linked to, it has all the details and charts. I don't post fake news.
It's going to look rather less attractive if the services migrate to the EU


Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk
 
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Woosh

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It's going to look rather less attractive if the services migrate to the EU


Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk
some jobs in specific expertise like euro clearing will move but they will be replaced pretty soon. The fintech sector employs about 61,000 people (if you think it's fake news, the source is the Treasury), euro clearing about 1,500 - not a huge movement.
For the banking and insurance sector, banks expand in the EU for now, then when brexit landscape becomes clearer, they'll turn their attention to the UK.
 

Danidl

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some jobs in specific expertise like euro clearing will move but they will be replaced pretty soon. The fintech sector employs about 61,000 people (if you think it's fake news, the source is the Treasury), euro clearing about 1,500 - not a huge movement.
For the banking and insurance sector, banks expand in the EU for now, then when brexit landscape becomes clearer, they'll turn their attention to the UK.
Don't ignore all the auxiliary services linked to these main players .. example the eu European medicines agency might directly only employ a few hundred, but the number of legal practices and lobbying groups and hotel beds even coffee shops , linked to its activities will have employment repercussions going into thousands
 
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