Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
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The cabinet are united....the big group led by Hammond and Rudd want a soft(minmum 3 years transition)Brexit,a smaller group led by Rees-Mogg want a hard (fall off a cliff) Brexit but now Theresa May and David Davis want a softish-hardish (middle of the road)Brexit....I have read Mays explanation of this and really dont understand what is different to soft Brexit.
But 'nothing has changed','we are all united',hehe....
I wonder what form of Brexit do the EU intend or think we want????
confused KudosDave
Just a further thought,isnt our EU contributions based upon the success of our country? A sort of government income tax? The Tories are making such a mess of things we could be so negative as to want assistance from the EU not make contributions....Germany could end up the only one paying in.
 
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Woosh

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I think there is a consensus for a transitional period.
It's afterward that the 3 groups differ.
Rees Mogg wants shortest transition, then WTO. No deal necessary and get away with the smallest possible divorce bill.
TM wants reasonably long transition, then a free trade deal. Divorce bill matters but not a deal breaker.
Hammond wants a soft brexit.
The hard brexiters are now a minority in the conservatives.
 

Steb

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jul 15, 2017
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I think there is a consensus for a transitional period.
It's afterward that the 3 groups differ.
Rees Mogg wants shortest transition, then WTO. No deal necessary and get away with the smallest possible divorce bill.
TM wants reasonably long transition, then a free trade deal. Divorce bill matters but not a deal breaker.
Hammond wants a soft brexit.
The hard brexiters are now a minority in the conservatives.
they have always been. their finding the courage to speak out because the electorate's jingoistic seizure is (thankfully)wearing off a bit.
 
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Woosh

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for a soft brexit, the tories need to be beaten at the next GE.
to reverse brexit, the libdems need to be in government.
otherwise, we'll get TM and a fairly hard brexit.
 

Steb

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for a soft brexit, the tories need to be beaten at the next GE.
to reverse brexit, the libdems need to be in government.
otherwise, we'll get TM and a fairly hard brexit.
I know we're in uncharted water and strange things have happened recently, but I am not ready to put down a tenner at any odds on the lib dems being in power any time soon. TM, like Rees Mogg, is an opportunistic heartless nutter that will do any damage to the UK if it provides her with power. it comes down to the electorate's sentiment I fear.
 
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Woosh

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I know we're in uncharted water and strange things have happened recently, but I am not ready to put down a tenner at any odds on the lib dems being in power any time soon
that's why not many people believe that brexit can be reversed.
Mind you, the SNP may do just as well to reverse brexit.
Remainers should think more about the mechanism to bring about a second referendum.
 

Steb

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that's why not many people believe that brexit can be reversed.
Mind you, the SNP may do just as well to reverse brexit.
Remainers should think more about the mechanism to bring about a second referendum.
apologies for a rehash of what's been said, but - that - a mechanism for a second referendum - would require a reasonable public discourse about the reality of brexit. I fear this isn't on offer. I don't know what would make this available. its a bit like finding a way to have a conversation with the Donald about not treating women like objects. perhaps some softening up via painful economic circumstance may help. but that may equally propel us all into a more disturbing reality.
 
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Woosh

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although parliament has the power but in practice, only the government of the day can call a second referendum.
That's why remainers need a coalition government to reverse brexit.
 

oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
Been busy doing some touring recently and have paid little attention to internet activities - saw these on re-acquainting myself with various social media and though they were worthy of repetition here:

20708122_977342455741607_2483258651955270549_n.png
Great definition in my book!.................

...........20638673_605747423146438_2643264971369554701_n.jpg

......err, yes please!

Then, there is this concise explanation of how the 'trickle-down effect' has always completely failed to produce the results that the lying, cheating tory scum used as their defence of creating greater and greater profits from the toil and sweat of the ordinary folks' labour:

20638744_867112386781016_144970920974246068_n.jpg

Tom
 
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Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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Are poor Brexiters prepared for a hard Brexit....everyone is saying Brexit will make us poorer,if inflation comes back because of the weak pound, the BoE will have to raise interest rates,post Brexit Hammond will continue lowering corporation tax to keep business,so we are back to savage austerity.....are Brexiters prepared to be very poor,but they knew that when they voted.
KudosDave
 
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Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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Are poor Brexiters prepared for a hard Brexit....everyone is saying Brexit will make us poorer,if inflation comes back because of the weak pound, the BoE will have to raise interest rates,post Brexit Hammond will continue lowering corporation tax to keep business,so we are back to savage austerity.....are Brexiters prepared to be very poor,but they knew that when they voted.
KudosDave
By poor Brexiteers do you mean impoverished or was it affectionate condescending?.
According to very recent predictions, euro sterling might reach parity! . That would be a whopping 40% sterling devaluation approximately in a two year period.
For an exporting economy good news, certainly , as it can undercut everyone else, but if one needs to import either raw materials, energy or food, very bad news. Currently the UK imports 30% of its food, and imports significant amounts of gas ...
 
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Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
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By poor Brexiteers do you mean impoverished or was it affectionate condescending?.
According to very recent predictions, euro sterling might reach parity! . That would be a whopping 40% sterling devaluation approximately in a two year period.
For an exporting economy good news, certainly , as it can undercut everyone else, but if one needs to import either raw materials, energy or food, very bad news. Currently the UK imports 30% of its food, and imports significant amounts of gas ...
Nothing affectionate,it is becoming obvious that a large number of Brexiters voted to bring attention to their situation and/or were anti immigration.
The surprise is that those voters are still pro Brexit and are happy for it to have a negative effect on their lifestyle,at extreme drive them into poverty,some say that is a price they are prepared to pay.
I am of a mind that we should go for a hard Brexit,drop out and suffer the pain,better a sharp stab than death by a thousand cuts. It seems that we haven't experienced enough pain yet.
My own import/export business is very busy EU exports,even my UK customers tell me most business is EU export,it is of concern that with such a weak £ v Euro the general picture from the UK is weak exports.
KudosDave
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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It would seem according to the latest Poll that 78% of the Population are in favour of Hard Brexit.

Excellent News, assuming of course that is what you want to see, and from my point of view, an admission that quite simply no one can envisage any other result than that.

This is true of course, and the Public reaction is one of bored acceptance of the inevitable.
Interestingly throughout this shambles, no one has given a serious thought to what will happen in the future beyond the simple terms of costs of goods in the shops.

There is still nothing to indicate any up side to this decision to leave the EU either in that aspect, or in the social aspects of the change.
These are of far greater consequence, and yet no promises to address them have been made by any politicians who haven't even bothered to really confirm that socially people's rights, privileges and protection are not now going to take a nose dive back into the 1930's
Already this is happening all around us.

Regardless of whichever way the financial aspect turns, Brexit was a Vote by the population against being ignored and mistreated by Parliament, yet will result in the opposite

The Referendum was a chance to protest, it didn't work, and when the public realise that ,they will not be asking for another Referendum, but will react more directly this time.
That is the rock that Brexit will Founder on.

The Political classes should realise that Brexit was in fact the equivalent of a "Last Warning" and they had better make a good job of it.
But no, they see this as a Golden opportunity to rip the voters off again and treat them as Stupid.

The only changes that the public can look forward to, are for the worse.
At the moment they are prepared to believe that will only be short term before all is fine and dandy.
There is in fact no reason to cling to that naive and optimistic view, it is just a pipe dream.

We will inevitably, after considerable internal strife rejoin the EU, much chastened and hopefully much wiser, and Europe will merge into a United States of Europe.

Brexit; the ultimate Mistake
 
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Woosh

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There is in fact no reason to cling to that naive and optimistic view, it is just a pipe dream.
Don't blame the voters. If you ask them what they wish for, the result of the Oxford/LSE poll isn't surprising.
Delivery on brexit promises is the job the people whom the public voted for, not the job for the voters.
Que sera, sera.
 

anotherkiwi

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 26, 2015
7,845
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In other news Spanish hotels are very seriously considering refusing English package holiday tourists (some already are). They have done the math and the food poisoning swindle has cost them so much they prefer Dutch or German package holiday tourists instead. So it looks like the exit from the sunny south is under way!
 
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